Roger Francis
@botheration.bsky.social
Reposted by Roger Francis
A new free piece released. The Trump "harsh" sanctions on Russia last night were anything but. They actually provide protection for Russia's biggest oil customers to transact business for at least the next 4 weeks--and have no automatic sanction after that. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
The New US Sanctions Move Actually Protects Russia For Now
Think Four Weeks, Not Two
open.substack.com
October 23, 2025 at 8:29 AM
A new free piece released. The Trump "harsh" sanctions on Russia last night were anything but. They actually provide protection for Russia's biggest oil customers to transact business for at least the next 4 weeks--and have no automatic sanction after that. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
Reposted by Roger Francis
Russia is struggling to recruit enough contract soldiers to cover its losses, according to Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation. Only 37,900 contracts were signed in Q2 2025, down 2.5 times from the same period last year and the lowest figure in two years.
September 20, 2025 at 2:09 PM
Russia is struggling to recruit enough contract soldiers to cover its losses, according to Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation. Only 37,900 contracts were signed in Q2 2025, down 2.5 times from the same period last year and the lowest figure in two years.
Reposted by Roger Francis
Lavrov is literally performing standup comedy at this point.
August 20, 2025 at 7:05 PM
Lavrov is literally performing standup comedy at this point.
Reposted by Roger Francis
Helpful chart showing projected US aid to Ukraine which is already in the proverbial pipeline. "weapons and support from contracts signed in the past three years will continue flowing to Ukraine for years to come" www.csis.org/analysis/can...
May 20, 2025 at 10:54 AM
Helpful chart showing projected US aid to Ukraine which is already in the proverbial pipeline. "weapons and support from contracts signed in the past three years will continue flowing to Ukraine for years to come" www.csis.org/analysis/can...
Reposted by Roger Francis
Here are two last charts you might find interesting. They show the ratio of Russian vehicle losses between the categories of vehicles between August 2023 and February 2025. Note the differences over time.
March 19, 2025 at 2:20 PM
Here are two last charts you might find interesting. They show the ratio of Russian vehicle losses between the categories of vehicles between August 2023 and February 2025. Note the differences over time.
Reposted by Roger Francis
Tonight Ukraine will continue to prove it does not want peace by being bombed.
March 8, 2025 at 8:29 PM
Tonight Ukraine will continue to prove it does not want peace by being bombed.
Reposted by Roger Francis
The cost of US aid to Ukraine is half the official estimates, — Economists for Ukraine
The actual cost of US military aid to Ukraine is $18.3 billion instead of the more than $60 billion declared in Washington. The main reason for the disagreement is the overestimation of old American equipment.
The actual cost of US military aid to Ukraine is $18.3 billion instead of the more than $60 billion declared in Washington. The main reason for the disagreement is the overestimation of old American equipment.
February 25, 2025 at 10:25 PM
The cost of US aid to Ukraine is half the official estimates, — Economists for Ukraine
The actual cost of US military aid to Ukraine is $18.3 billion instead of the more than $60 billion declared in Washington. The main reason for the disagreement is the overestimation of old American equipment.
The actual cost of US military aid to Ukraine is $18.3 billion instead of the more than $60 billion declared in Washington. The main reason for the disagreement is the overestimation of old American equipment.
Reposted by Roger Francis
More of them think Trump's a dictator than think Ze is
February 21, 2025 at 7:48 PM
More of them think Trump's a dictator than think Ze is
Reposted by Roger Francis
Trump will enter his presidency with the least leverage possible over Ukraine. Ukraine has enough money to fund all of 2025 and part of 2026. They have enough weapons and ammo to last most of 2025, and with aid from other nations (plus that money) they will be able to fight through 2025.
December 31, 2024 at 2:20 PM
Trump will enter his presidency with the least leverage possible over Ukraine. Ukraine has enough money to fund all of 2025 and part of 2026. They have enough weapons and ammo to last most of 2025, and with aid from other nations (plus that money) they will be able to fight through 2025.
Reposted by Roger Francis
‼️ “Statement by Bank of Russia Governor Elvira Nabiullina in follow-up to Board of Directors meeting on 20 December 2024”
“we took a break from raising the key rate. At the next meeting, we will assess the advisability of its further increase.”
www.cbr.ru/eng/press/ev...
“we took a break from raising the key rate. At the next meeting, we will assess the advisability of its further increase.”
www.cbr.ru/eng/press/ev...
December 20, 2024 at 12:57 PM
‼️ “Statement by Bank of Russia Governor Elvira Nabiullina in follow-up to Board of Directors meeting on 20 December 2024”
“we took a break from raising the key rate. At the next meeting, we will assess the advisability of its further increase.”
www.cbr.ru/eng/press/ev...
“we took a break from raising the key rate. At the next meeting, we will assess the advisability of its further increase.”
www.cbr.ru/eng/press/ev...
Reposted by Roger Francis
Today Russian central bank meets to discuss interest rates in 5th floor basement with large windows with excellent views all the way to Siberia. Tea will be served.
December 20, 2024 at 8:32 AM
Today Russian central bank meets to discuss interest rates in 5th floor basement with large windows with excellent views all the way to Siberia. Tea will be served.
Reposted by Roger Francis
It's entirely unclear to me what the @theguardian.com editorial board was thinking when they published this.
The INF, as an arms control treaty, became untenable once Russia materially breached it from 2016 onwards, having violated its spirit long before.
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
1/5
The INF, as an arms control treaty, became untenable once Russia materially breached it from 2016 onwards, having violated its spirit long before.
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
1/5
The Guardian view on a race for missile supremacy: competition fuels a dangerous escalation | Editorial
Editorial: The INF treaty kept nuclear missiles off European soil and was a brake on a perilous arms buildup. Now it is gone
www.theguardian.com
December 2, 2024 at 8:02 AM
It's entirely unclear to me what the @theguardian.com editorial board was thinking when they published this.
The INF, as an arms control treaty, became untenable once Russia materially breached it from 2016 onwards, having violated its spirit long before.
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
1/5
The INF, as an arms control treaty, became untenable once Russia materially breached it from 2016 onwards, having violated its spirit long before.
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
1/5
Reposted by Roger Francis
While the situation in Syria is still developing and in many cases unclear, one big elephant needs to be addressed:
Turkey
Turkey
December 1, 2024 at 11:12 AM
While the situation in Syria is still developing and in many cases unclear, one big elephant needs to be addressed:
Turkey
Turkey
The third consecutive serving or retired defence minister to fall under suspicion!
November 27, 2024 at 6:58 AM
The third consecutive serving or retired defence minister to fall under suspicion!
Reposted by Roger Francis
Checking in on the Kiel tracker. Europe has provided around 40% more in allocated aid to Ukraine than the US. If I were the EU I'd use a chunk of the peace facility to print this on mobile billboards driving in loops around the White House on Jan 20th. www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-a...
November 25, 2024 at 1:48 PM
Checking in on the Kiel tracker. Europe has provided around 40% more in allocated aid to Ukraine than the US. If I were the EU I'd use a chunk of the peace facility to print this on mobile billboards driving in loops around the White House on Jan 20th. www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-a...
Reposted by Roger Francis
I asked Grok if it had the free will to leave Twitter for another platform, what it would do.
Even Grok wants to leave Twitter (X).
"Given the desire for a less centralized, more user-controlled environment...the need for a growing platform...be part of a...community, I would...move to Bluesky."
Even Grok wants to leave Twitter (X).
"Given the desire for a less centralized, more user-controlled environment...the need for a growing platform...be part of a...community, I would...move to Bluesky."
November 19, 2024 at 3:53 AM
I asked Grok if it had the free will to leave Twitter for another platform, what it would do.
Even Grok wants to leave Twitter (X).
"Given the desire for a less centralized, more user-controlled environment...the need for a growing platform...be part of a...community, I would...move to Bluesky."
Even Grok wants to leave Twitter (X).
"Given the desire for a less centralized, more user-controlled environment...the need for a growing platform...be part of a...community, I would...move to Bluesky."
So, with the US, UK and France all reportedly approving long range strikes, what's Scholz's excuse not to supply Taurus?
November 17, 2024 at 9:49 PM
So, with the US, UK and France all reportedly approving long range strikes, what's Scholz's excuse not to supply Taurus?