Ben Moll
@benmoll.bsky.social
Sir John Hicks Professor of Economics, LSE. Macroeconomics with distribution(s). https://benjaminmoll.com/
Reposted by Ben Moll
Elsevier has dismissed Richard Tol as editor of the highly successful "Energy Economics". His account of the alleged and the actual reasons casts an even darker shadow over the academic publishing business.
September 15, 2025 at 3:35 PM
Elsevier has dismissed Richard Tol as editor of the highly successful "Energy Economics". His account of the alleged and the actual reasons casts an even darker shadow over the academic publishing business.
Reposted by Ben Moll
All is not well at Elsevier richardtol.substack.com/p/fraud-and-...
Fraud and cover-up
Fraud and cover-up
richardtol.substack.com
September 15, 2025 at 7:54 AM
All is not well at Elsevier richardtol.substack.com/p/fraud-and-...
Reposted by Ben Moll
🆕 The ‘missing intercept’ problem with going from micro to macro
Today on VoxDev, @benmoll.bsky.social (LSE) and @olihanney.bsky.social explain the problem with scaling cross-sectional estimates to the aggregate level, and discuss solutions for economists: voxdev.org/topic/method...
Today on VoxDev, @benmoll.bsky.social (LSE) and @olihanney.bsky.social explain the problem with scaling cross-sectional estimates to the aggregate level, and discuss solutions for economists: voxdev.org/topic/method...
The ‘missing intercept’ problem with going from micro to macro
Many applied microeconomics papers conclude with a back-of-the-envelope calculation that scales their cross-sectional estimates to the aggregate level. These types of aggregate estimates are only vali...
voxdev.org
September 9, 2025 at 7:28 AM
🆕 The ‘missing intercept’ problem with going from micro to macro
Today on VoxDev, @benmoll.bsky.social (LSE) and @olihanney.bsky.social explain the problem with scaling cross-sectional estimates to the aggregate level, and discuss solutions for economists: voxdev.org/topic/method...
Today on VoxDev, @benmoll.bsky.social (LSE) and @olihanney.bsky.social explain the problem with scaling cross-sectional estimates to the aggregate level, and discuss solutions for economists: voxdev.org/topic/method...
Reposted by Ben Moll
Many of the 'facts' that travel the furthest from economic research are based on a flawed method of scaling cross-sectional estimates to the aggregate.
@benmoll.bsky.social and I have written about this 'missing intercept' problem, and what economists can do about it, here ⤵️
@benmoll.bsky.social and I have written about this 'missing intercept' problem, and what economists can do about it, here ⤵️
🆕 The ‘missing intercept’ problem with going from micro to macro
Today on VoxDev, @benmoll.bsky.social (LSE) and @olihanney.bsky.social explain the problem with scaling cross-sectional estimates to the aggregate level, and discuss solutions for economists: voxdev.org/topic/method...
Today on VoxDev, @benmoll.bsky.social (LSE) and @olihanney.bsky.social explain the problem with scaling cross-sectional estimates to the aggregate level, and discuss solutions for economists: voxdev.org/topic/method...
The ‘missing intercept’ problem with going from micro to macro
Many applied microeconomics papers conclude with a back-of-the-envelope calculation that scales their cross-sectional estimates to the aggregate level. These types of aggregate estimates are only vali...
voxdev.org
September 9, 2025 at 7:59 AM
Many of the 'facts' that travel the furthest from economic research are based on a flawed method of scaling cross-sectional estimates to the aggregate.
@benmoll.bsky.social and I have written about this 'missing intercept' problem, and what economists can do about it, here ⤵️
@benmoll.bsky.social and I have written about this 'missing intercept' problem, and what economists can do about it, here ⤵️
Reposted by Ben Moll
Good to see the FT editorial draw attention to this less well known casualty of the US regime - official statistics
on.ft.com/43Tejhn
on.ft.com/43Tejhn
The White House war on federal statistics
Economists and scientists worry over disappearing data and advisory groups
on.ft.com
March 19, 2025 at 7:01 AM
Good to see the FT editorial draw attention to this less well known casualty of the US regime - official statistics
on.ft.com/43Tejhn
on.ft.com/43Tejhn
Reposted by Ben Moll
Stronger together - support for 🇺🇦 from private individuals, coordinated with @oechssler.bsky.social:
200 people gave at least 200€. Combined with extra donations, the total is about 60.000€.
The money is already in Ukraine. Thank you!
yourcontributionsquared.eu
200 people gave at least 200€. Combined with extra donations, the total is about 60.000€.
The money is already in Ukraine. Thank you!
yourcontributionsquared.eu
Your Contribution Squared
yourcontributionsquared.eu
March 17, 2025 at 12:29 PM
Stronger together - support for 🇺🇦 from private individuals, coordinated with @oechssler.bsky.social:
200 people gave at least 200€. Combined with extra donations, the total is about 60.000€.
The money is already in Ukraine. Thank you!
yourcontributionsquared.eu
200 people gave at least 200€. Combined with extra donations, the total is about 60.000€.
The money is already in Ukraine. Thank you!
yourcontributionsquared.eu
Reposted by Ben Moll
According to this @zdfde.bsky.social Politbarometer poll, 76% of Germans are in favour of more defence spending with new debt.
This includes 90% of CDU voters, 52% of Die Linke voters and even 70% of FDP voters.
A fiscal public opinion revolution.
This includes 90% of CDU voters, 52% of Die Linke voters and even 70% of FDP voters.
A fiscal public opinion revolution.
March 8, 2025 at 10:24 AM
According to this @zdfde.bsky.social Politbarometer poll, 76% of Germans are in favour of more defence spending with new debt.
This includes 90% of CDU voters, 52% of Die Linke voters and even 70% of FDP voters.
A fiscal public opinion revolution.
This includes 90% of CDU voters, 52% of Die Linke voters and even 70% of FDP voters.
A fiscal public opinion revolution.
Reposted by Ben Moll
If one person gives a euro to Ukraine, the result is €1.
If two people give 2 each, it is €4.
If 3,000 give 3,000 each, it is 9 million.
Let’s coordinate, here 👇
and please re-post to spread the word.
yourcontributionsquared.eu/en/
If two people give 2 each, it is €4.
If 3,000 give 3,000 each, it is 9 million.
Let’s coordinate, here 👇
and please re-post to spread the word.
yourcontributionsquared.eu/en/
Your Contribution Squared
yourcontributionsquared.eu
March 3, 2025 at 10:22 AM
If one person gives a euro to Ukraine, the result is €1.
If two people give 2 each, it is €4.
If 3,000 give 3,000 each, it is 9 million.
Let’s coordinate, here 👇
and please re-post to spread the word.
yourcontributionsquared.eu/en/
If two people give 2 each, it is €4.
If 3,000 give 3,000 each, it is 9 million.
Let’s coordinate, here 👇
and please re-post to spread the word.
yourcontributionsquared.eu/en/
Reposted by Ben Moll
SO true. "Oh noes I don't know how we're going to rearm we've only got one of the world's great industrial powerhouses looking for a new growth area whose government can borrow very cheaply, woe is us".
March 3, 2025 at 10:40 AM
SO true. "Oh noes I don't know how we're going to rearm we've only got one of the world's great industrial powerhouses looking for a new growth area whose government can borrow very cheaply, woe is us".
Reposted by Ben Moll
The European Union remains a funny animal.
Outside observers: rich place, lots of industry, lower debt levels than US/China. Should be able to rearm quickly and cheaply if they coordinate decision-making.
Leaders on the inside: I don’t trust my neighbour so let’s bicker while the house burns down.
Outside observers: rich place, lots of industry, lower debt levels than US/China. Should be able to rearm quickly and cheaply if they coordinate decision-making.
Leaders on the inside: I don’t trust my neighbour so let’s bicker while the house burns down.
March 3, 2025 at 10:32 AM
The European Union remains a funny animal.
Outside observers: rich place, lots of industry, lower debt levels than US/China. Should be able to rearm quickly and cheaply if they coordinate decision-making.
Leaders on the inside: I don’t trust my neighbour so let’s bicker while the house burns down.
Outside observers: rich place, lots of industry, lower debt levels than US/China. Should be able to rearm quickly and cheaply if they coordinate decision-making.
Leaders on the inside: I don’t trust my neighbour so let’s bicker while the house burns down.
Reposted by Ben Moll
To better compare Ukraine aid to defence spending, I turned the @kiel.institute figures into annual % of GDP, using the latest GDP data available and some extrapolation.
February 27, 2025 at 5:07 PM
To better compare Ukraine aid to defence spending, I turned the @kiel.institute figures into annual % of GDP, using the latest GDP data available and some extrapolation.
Reposted by Ben Moll
Did some of the maths in this week's The @economist.com on EU defence spending and Ukraine aid if America withdraws.
Doable, but requires putting a lot of money on the table. www.economist.com/europe/2025/...
Doable, but requires putting a lot of money on the table. www.economist.com/europe/2025/...
Europe will need to pull all the levers to up its defence spending
How to get to 3.5%
www.economist.com
February 27, 2025 at 4:50 PM
Did some of the maths in this week's The @economist.com on EU defence spending and Ukraine aid if America withdraws.
Doable, but requires putting a lot of money on the table. www.economist.com/europe/2025/...
Doable, but requires putting a lot of money on the table. www.economist.com/europe/2025/...
February 25, 2025 at 10:40 PM
Reposted by Ben Moll
Hey #EconSky
Economists for Ukraine (econ4ua.org) drafted an open letter to the future German chancellor. We call for 🇩🇪 & 🇪🇺 to step up & to ⬆️ support for #Ukraine. Please read & sign (if you agree), the form is at the end of ✉️): tinyurl.com/m9ta2b5d
Please share this letter with your colleagues.
Economists for Ukraine (econ4ua.org) drafted an open letter to the future German chancellor. We call for 🇩🇪 & 🇪🇺 to step up & to ⬆️ support for #Ukraine. Please read & sign (if you agree), the form is at the end of ✉️): tinyurl.com/m9ta2b5d
Please share this letter with your colleagues.
To: The future German chancellor
To: The future German chancellor From: Economists For Ukraine. Dear Chancellor, Congratulations on taking the helm of the Federal Republic of Germany! You are in a perfect storm, and Germany mus...
tinyurl.com
February 20, 2025 at 7:51 PM
Hey #EconSky
Economists for Ukraine (econ4ua.org) drafted an open letter to the future German chancellor. We call for 🇩🇪 & 🇪🇺 to step up & to ⬆️ support for #Ukraine. Please read & sign (if you agree), the form is at the end of ✉️): tinyurl.com/m9ta2b5d
Please share this letter with your colleagues.
Economists for Ukraine (econ4ua.org) drafted an open letter to the future German chancellor. We call for 🇩🇪 & 🇪🇺 to step up & to ⬆️ support for #Ukraine. Please read & sign (if you agree), the form is at the end of ✉️): tinyurl.com/m9ta2b5d
Please share this letter with your colleagues.
Reposted by Ben Moll
"In an ironic twist, Germany might end up dependent on EU debt, which it usually opposes, to fund its armed forces [as EU debt does not fall under the debt brake]."
My latest for The @economist.com. www.economist.com/finance-and-...
My latest for The @economist.com. www.economist.com/finance-and-...
To spend big, Germany’s next government may need EU help
How self-imposed constraints could lead to a bizarre outcome
www.economist.com
February 20, 2025 at 11:39 AM
"In an ironic twist, Germany might end up dependent on EU debt, which it usually opposes, to fund its armed forces [as EU debt does not fall under the debt brake]."
My latest for The @economist.com. www.economist.com/finance-and-...
My latest for The @economist.com. www.economist.com/finance-and-...
Reposted by Ben Moll
Economists for Ukraine (econ4ua.org) drafted an open letter to the future German chancellor. We call for 🇩🇪 & 🇪🇺 to step up & to ⬆️ support for #Ukraine. Please read & sign (if you agree), the form is at the end of ✉️): tinyurl.com/m9ta2b5d
Please share this letter with your colleagues.
#UkrainianView
Please share this letter with your colleagues.
#UkrainianView
To: The future German chancellor
To: The future German chancellor From: Economists For Ukraine. Dear Chancellor, Congratulations on taking the helm of the Federal Republic of Germany! You are in a perfect storm, and Germany mus...
docs.google.com
February 20, 2025 at 3:14 AM
Economists for Ukraine (econ4ua.org) drafted an open letter to the future German chancellor. We call for 🇩🇪 & 🇪🇺 to step up & to ⬆️ support for #Ukraine. Please read & sign (if you agree), the form is at the end of ✉️): tinyurl.com/m9ta2b5d
Please share this letter with your colleagues.
#UkrainianView
Please share this letter with your colleagues.
#UkrainianView
Reposted by Ben Moll
@econ4ua.bsky.social is organizing an open letter to the future German chancellor (Germany is holding elections Sunday), urging them to lead and stand up to Russia.
docs.google.com/document/d/1...
docs.google.com/document/d/1...
To: The future German chancellor
To: The future German chancellor From: Economists For Ukraine. Dear Chancellor, Congratulations on taking the helm of the Federal Republic of Germany! You are in a perfect storm, and Germany mus...
docs.google.com
February 20, 2025 at 2:50 AM
@econ4ua.bsky.social is organizing an open letter to the future German chancellor (Germany is holding elections Sunday), urging them to lead and stand up to Russia.
docs.google.com/document/d/1...
docs.google.com/document/d/1...
Reposted by Ben Moll
🚨NEW @financialtimes.com investigation reveals evidence that Russian executions of Ukrainian POWs are likely part of a systematic policy. And we uncover the identity of a Russian soldier likely involved in filming and carrying out the mass execution of 6 POWs.
📽️WATCH: www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Muw...
📽️WATCH: www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Muw...
'Film me!’: Russia's executions of Ukrainian POWs points to a policy | FT Film
YouTube video by Financial Times
www.youtube.com
February 20, 2025 at 7:32 AM
🚨NEW @financialtimes.com investigation reveals evidence that Russian executions of Ukrainian POWs are likely part of a systematic policy. And we uncover the identity of a Russian soldier likely involved in filming and carrying out the mass execution of 6 POWs.
📽️WATCH: www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Muw...
📽️WATCH: www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Muw...
Reposted by Ben Moll
🎉Congrats to the 126 early-career scientists who have been awarded a Sloan Research Fellowship this year! These exceptional scholars are drawn from 51 institutions across the US and Canada, and represent the next generation of groundbreaking researchers. sloan.org/fellowships/...
February 18, 2025 at 3:14 PM
🎉Congrats to the 126 early-career scientists who have been awarded a Sloan Research Fellowship this year! These exceptional scholars are drawn from 51 institutions across the US and Canada, and represent the next generation of groundbreaking researchers. sloan.org/fellowships/...
Big congrats to this year's Sloan Fellows!
February 19, 2025 at 10:50 AM
Big congrats to this year's Sloan Fellows!
Reposted by Ben Moll
@benmoll.bsky.social might have an opinion inspired by his work on rational expectations in HA model (benjaminmoll.com/challenge/)
For the one interested, @benmoll.bsky.social will present @igier @bocconi on Tuesday at 4.30pm
For the one interested, @benmoll.bsky.social will present @igier @bocconi on Tuesday at 4.30pm
benjaminmoll.com
February 16, 2025 at 2:00 PM
@benmoll.bsky.social might have an opinion inspired by his work on rational expectations in HA model (benjaminmoll.com/challenge/)
For the one interested, @benmoll.bsky.social will present @igier @bocconi on Tuesday at 4.30pm
For the one interested, @benmoll.bsky.social will present @igier @bocconi on Tuesday at 4.30pm
I couldn't agree more!
The excessive focus on linearized solutions to HA models is a bit like the old joke about the drunk who is looking for a key under a lamppost because that's where the light is.
More discussion of why we need non-linear models and ways forward here benjaminmoll.com/challenge/
The excessive focus on linearized solutions to HA models is a bit like the old joke about the drunk who is looking for a key under a lamppost because that's where the light is.
More discussion of why we need non-linear models and ways forward here benjaminmoll.com/challenge/
February 17, 2025 at 9:46 AM
I couldn't agree more!
The excessive focus on linearized solutions to HA models is a bit like the old joke about the drunk who is looking for a key under a lamppost because that's where the light is.
More discussion of why we need non-linear models and ways forward here benjaminmoll.com/challenge/
The excessive focus on linearized solutions to HA models is a bit like the old joke about the drunk who is looking for a key under a lamppost because that's where the light is.
More discussion of why we need non-linear models and ways forward here benjaminmoll.com/challenge/
Reposted by Ben Moll
📢 Kiel goes #MSC2025: Today at 11:15 CET Ethan Ilzetzki presents Kiel Report #2: "Guns and Growth: The Economic Consequences of Defense Buildups" at a press event at HypoVereinsbank (the official venue for everything press)! Join us if you're on site!
More 👉 www.ifw-kiel.de/publications...
More 👉 www.ifw-kiel.de/publications...
February 14, 2025 at 8:37 AM
📢 Kiel goes #MSC2025: Today at 11:15 CET Ethan Ilzetzki presents Kiel Report #2: "Guns and Growth: The Economic Consequences of Defense Buildups" at a press event at HypoVereinsbank (the official venue for everything press)! Join us if you're on site!
More 👉 www.ifw-kiel.de/publications...
More 👉 www.ifw-kiel.de/publications...
Reposted by Ben Moll
As I keep saying to German journos: the Finnish foreign minister is a native German speaker. Rare opportunity to get her on radio and TV, as this 👇 really matters.
It’s sad to see Germany losing its good image in Finland. And the saddest part was to watch the crash happen and German leadership remaining oblivious to the effect that losing the trust of the loyal small friends will mean to Germany’s standing. It could have been prevented by policy adjustments.
February 13, 2025 at 12:00 PM
As I keep saying to German journos: the Finnish foreign minister is a native German speaker. Rare opportunity to get her on radio and TV, as this 👇 really matters.