Yuriy Gorodnichenko
@ygorodnichenko.bsky.social
Economics Professor at UC Berkeley; from #Ukraine
Pinned
Almost two years ago, @cepr.org published an eBook with essays by prominent scholars & policymakers about the importance of supporting #Ukraine.
This book is more relevant than ever. Read it!
#UkrainianView
cepr.org/publications...
This book is more relevant than ever. Read it!
#UkrainianView
cepr.org/publications...
One of these reports is by @eribakova.bsky.social, @iikkakorhonen.bsky.social and me
January 8, 2026 at 3:56 PM
One of these reports is by @eribakova.bsky.social, @iikkakorhonen.bsky.social and me
Martin recommends reading these 4 reports:
www.bruegel.org/working-pape...
peacerep.org/publication/...
www.piie.com/publications...
www.researchgate.net/publication/...
www.bruegel.org/working-pape...
peacerep.org/publication/...
www.piie.com/publications...
www.researchgate.net/publication/...
January 8, 2026 at 3:51 PM
Martin recommends reading these 4 reports:
www.bruegel.org/working-pape...
peacerep.org/publication/...
www.piie.com/publications...
www.researchgate.net/publication/...
www.bruegel.org/working-pape...
peacerep.org/publication/...
www.piie.com/publications...
www.researchgate.net/publication/...
@martinsandbu.ft.com on the state of RUS economy
"The picture is clear. The RU economy is under enormous strain, & is running out of resources. ... The message for the west — what remains of it — is that the medicine (sanctions) is working, but the dose should be increased."
100%
#UkrainianView
"The picture is clear. The RU economy is under enormous strain, & is running out of resources. ... The message for the west — what remains of it — is that the medicine (sanctions) is working, but the dose should be increased."
100%
#UkrainianView
Russia is running out of money
Go behind the propaganda, and the intensifying strain is evident
www.ft.com
January 8, 2026 at 3:48 PM
@martinsandbu.ft.com on the state of RUS economy
"The picture is clear. The RU economy is under enormous strain, & is running out of resources. ... The message for the west — what remains of it — is that the medicine (sanctions) is working, but the dose should be increased."
100%
#UkrainianView
"The picture is clear. The RU economy is under enormous strain, & is running out of resources. ... The message for the west — what remains of it — is that the medicine (sanctions) is working, but the dose should be increased."
100%
#UkrainianView
Russia is truly interested in peace
Blackout in Ukraine leaves 1mn without power in freezing weather
Russian drone strikes trigger widespread electricity outage in two regions on Wednesday
www.ft.com
January 8, 2026 at 3:43 PM
Russia is truly interested in peace
In summary:
A durable ceasefire or peace agreement will initiate a new epoch in Ukraine’s post-Soviet development. Foreign capital inflows, EU structural funds, and sustained investment, combined with institutional reforms, offer Ukraine a realistic path to reconstruction and income growth.
A durable ceasefire or peace agreement will initiate a new epoch in Ukraine’s post-Soviet development. Foreign capital inflows, EU structural funds, and sustained investment, combined with institutional reforms, offer Ukraine a realistic path to reconstruction and income growth.
January 6, 2026 at 11:30 PM
In summary:
A durable ceasefire or peace agreement will initiate a new epoch in Ukraine’s post-Soviet development. Foreign capital inflows, EU structural funds, and sustained investment, combined with institutional reforms, offer Ukraine a realistic path to reconstruction and income growth.
A durable ceasefire or peace agreement will initiate a new epoch in Ukraine’s post-Soviet development. Foreign capital inflows, EU structural funds, and sustained investment, combined with institutional reforms, offer Ukraine a realistic path to reconstruction and income growth.
Why "You Only Live Twice" in the title of the paper?
This was inspired by:
"You only live twice:
Once when you are born,
And once when you look death in the face."
–Poem by James Bond in Ian Fleming’s You Only Live Twice (1964)
Ukraine is certainly looks death in the face now...
This was inspired by:
"You only live twice:
Once when you are born,
And once when you look death in the face."
–Poem by James Bond in Ian Fleming’s You Only Live Twice (1964)
Ukraine is certainly looks death in the face now...
January 6, 2026 at 11:27 PM
Why "You Only Live Twice" in the title of the paper?
This was inspired by:
"You only live twice:
Once when you are born,
And once when you look death in the face."
–Poem by James Bond in Ian Fleming’s You Only Live Twice (1964)
Ukraine is certainly looks death in the face now...
This was inspired by:
"You only live twice:
Once when you are born,
And once when you look death in the face."
–Poem by James Bond in Ian Fleming’s You Only Live Twice (1964)
Ukraine is certainly looks death in the face now...
Another key issue for UKR: debt overhang. Public debt is >100% of GDP.
There has to be massive write-off/restructuring.
If this is not done, public debt can weigh heavily on UKR economic growth.
There has to be massive write-off/restructuring.
If this is not done, public debt can weigh heavily on UKR economic growth.
January 6, 2026 at 11:25 PM
Another key issue for UKR: debt overhang. Public debt is >100% of GDP.
There has to be massive write-off/restructuring.
If this is not done, public debt can weigh heavily on UKR economic growth.
There has to be massive write-off/restructuring.
If this is not done, public debt can weigh heavily on UKR economic growth.
One hope that post-war Ukraine can have a higher saving rate (~20%), similar to what happened in W. Europe after World War II but it can take some time before we get there while $ is needed immediately.
January 6, 2026 at 11:23 PM
One hope that post-war Ukraine can have a higher saving rate (~20%), similar to what happened in W. Europe after World War II but it can take some time before we get there while $ is needed immediately.
The composition of inflows into countries is very different
Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia and other war affected countries rely on remittances
Poland, Hungary, Czechia, etc. rely on FDI and EU structural funds
Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia and other war affected countries rely on remittances
Poland, Hungary, Czechia, etc. rely on FDI and EU structural funds
January 6, 2026 at 11:20 PM
The composition of inflows into countries is very different
Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia and other war affected countries rely on remittances
Poland, Hungary, Czechia, etc. rely on FDI and EU structural funds
Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia and other war affected countries rely on remittances
Poland, Hungary, Czechia, etc. rely on FDI and EU structural funds
In recent years, Ukraine relied a lot more on remittances but these are not FDI. Remittances often finance consumption; they do not give the same tech transfer, integration in global value chains, etc.
January 6, 2026 at 11:19 PM
In recent years, Ukraine relied a lot more on remittances but these are not FDI. Remittances often finance consumption; they do not give the same tech transfer, integration in global value chains, etc.
another big difference is the official funds for Ukraine vs. EU members.
Even if we ignore EU structural funds (which are huge), the per-accession EU flows into POL, HUN, etc. were much larger than flows into Ukraine.
EU viewed UKR as not a part of Europe ... but the RUS sphere of influence
Even if we ignore EU structural funds (which are huge), the per-accession EU flows into POL, HUN, etc. were much larger than flows into Ukraine.
EU viewed UKR as not a part of Europe ... but the RUS sphere of influence
January 6, 2026 at 11:17 PM
another big difference is the official funds for Ukraine vs. EU members.
Even if we ignore EU structural funds (which are huge), the per-accession EU flows into POL, HUN, etc. were much larger than flows into Ukraine.
EU viewed UKR as not a part of Europe ... but the RUS sphere of influence
Even if we ignore EU structural funds (which are huge), the per-accession EU flows into POL, HUN, etc. were much larger than flows into Ukraine.
EU viewed UKR as not a part of Europe ... but the RUS sphere of influence
An important source of differences in capital accumulation was the low flow of FDI into Ukraine
January 6, 2026 at 11:11 PM
An important source of differences in capital accumulation was the low flow of FDI into Ukraine
It is stunning how much capital stock in Ukraine decreased after 1991 while new EU members increased it dramatically.
This contributed to the stagnation of income in Ukraine.
This contributed to the stagnation of income in Ukraine.
January 6, 2026 at 11:10 PM
It is stunning how much capital stock in Ukraine decreased after 1991 while new EU members increased it dramatically.
This contributed to the stagnation of income in Ukraine.
This contributed to the stagnation of income in Ukraine.
This approach helps to raise incomes directly and can create a virtuous circle where capital deepening facilitates technological upgrades and repatriation of war refugees, which in turn stimulate more investment.
January 6, 2026 at 10:50 PM
This approach helps to raise incomes directly and can create a virtuous circle where capital deepening facilitates technological upgrades and repatriation of war refugees, which in turn stimulate more investment.
What is a safe growth strategy for post-war #Ukraine?
A new paper by Maurice Obstfeld and me sheds more light on this question:
The earlier accession of Eastern European countries to the EU& NATO offers a template that relies on massive FDI & public structural funds.
#UkrainianView
A new paper by Maurice Obstfeld and me sheds more light on this question:
The earlier accession of Eastern European countries to the EU& NATO offers a template that relies on massive FDI & public structural funds.
#UkrainianView
You only live twice: Financial inflows and growth in a westward-facing Ukraine
The monumental task of rebuilding postwar Ukraine requires early planning and identification of growth strategies. The earlier accession of Eastern European countries to the European Union and NATO of...
www.piie.com
January 6, 2026 at 10:48 PM
What is a safe growth strategy for post-war #Ukraine?
A new paper by Maurice Obstfeld and me sheds more light on this question:
The earlier accession of Eastern European countries to the EU& NATO offers a template that relies on massive FDI & public structural funds.
#UkrainianView
A new paper by Maurice Obstfeld and me sheds more light on this question:
The earlier accession of Eastern European countries to the EU& NATO offers a template that relies on massive FDI & public structural funds.
#UkrainianView
Reposted by Yuriy Gorodnichenko
January 5, 2026 at 5:37 AM
So, so sad...
December 22, 2025 at 11:08 PM
So, so sad...
Reposted by Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Today is one of those days that shines a light on people's true intentions. Global long-term yields (red) are rising very sharply. If you're European and think issuing more debt into this is something to celebrate - instead of using Russian money - you don't have Europe's best interest at heart...
December 19, 2025 at 4:39 PM
Today is one of those days that shines a light on people's true intentions. Global long-term yields (red) are rising very sharply. If you're European and think issuing more debt into this is something to celebrate - instead of using Russian money - you don't have Europe's best interest at heart...
This is how moral hazard looks like: you invest $$$ into Putin/Russia knowing the high risks, and then you scream for a bailout/protection when things go south.
Raiffeisen, Unicredit, etc. had plenty of time to exit Russia
#UkrainianView #EconSky
Raiffeisen, Unicredit, etc. had plenty of time to exit Russia
#UkrainianView #EconSky
Putin’s retaliation threat over frozen assets rattles EU capitals
Italy, Belgium and Austria worry about Russia moving against their companies
www.ft.com
December 18, 2025 at 4:12 PM
This is how moral hazard looks like: you invest $$$ into Putin/Russia knowing the high risks, and then you scream for a bailout/protection when things go south.
Raiffeisen, Unicredit, etc. had plenty of time to exit Russia
#UkrainianView #EconSky
Raiffeisen, Unicredit, etc. had plenty of time to exit Russia
#UkrainianView #EconSky
"The disabling of holdout members’ vetoes will do much more for the EU’s economic security than anything proposed in the strategy update."
100%
#UkrainianView
100%
#UkrainianView
Brussels is finally flexing its muscle on Russian assets
The EU’s economic security depends on turning itself into more of a power player
giftarticle.ft.com
December 14, 2025 at 11:45 PM
"The disabling of holdout members’ vetoes will do much more for the EU’s economic security than anything proposed in the strategy update."
100%
#UkrainianView
100%
#UkrainianView
free economic zone in the #Donbas???
Is there a free economic zone in Korea's DMZ?
The experience is clear: no security, no economy. Don't kid anybody with such proposals
Is there a free economic zone in Korea's DMZ?
The experience is clear: no security, no economy. Don't kid anybody with such proposals
Trump pushes for ‘free economic zone’ in Donbas, says Zelenskyy
US proposes ‘compromise’ option of demilitarised buffer that excludes both Ukrainian and Russian forces, says Kyiv
www.ft.com
December 11, 2025 at 6:03 PM
free economic zone in the #Donbas???
Is there a free economic zone in Korea's DMZ?
The experience is clear: no security, no economy. Don't kid anybody with such proposals
Is there a free economic zone in Korea's DMZ?
The experience is clear: no security, no economy. Don't kid anybody with such proposals
Reposted by Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Our new @piie.com Working Paper on Russia’s war-induced regional convergence with @eribakova.bsky.social & @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social now out! @bofit.suomenpankki.fi @suomenpankki.fi
Many poorer regions saw their incomes rise faster 2022-24 as public spending rose🇷🇺
www.piie.com/publications...
Many poorer regions saw their incomes rise faster 2022-24 as public spending rose🇷🇺
www.piie.com/publications...
War-induced economic convergence in Russian regions
This paper examines the impact of Russia's 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine on Russia’s economy at a subnational, or “regional,” level. The analysis focuses on the regional disparities and converge...
www.piie.com
December 9, 2025 at 6:12 PM
Our new @piie.com Working Paper on Russia’s war-induced regional convergence with @eribakova.bsky.social & @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social now out! @bofit.suomenpankki.fi @suomenpankki.fi
Many poorer regions saw their incomes rise faster 2022-24 as public spending rose🇷🇺
www.piie.com/publications...
Many poorer regions saw their incomes rise faster 2022-24 as public spending rose🇷🇺
www.piie.com/publications...
Terrific debate!
The Ministry for Europe and Foreign Affairs hosted the final panel of #CEPRParis2025. Nicole Gnesotto @delorsinstitute.bsky.social,
@ygorodnichenko.bsky.social, Ethan Ilzetzki (LSE), & @schularick.bsky.social discussed defence & strategic sovereignty. @martinsandbu.ft.com moderated. #EconSky
@ygorodnichenko.bsky.social, Ethan Ilzetzki (LSE), & @schularick.bsky.social discussed defence & strategic sovereignty. @martinsandbu.ft.com moderated. #EconSky
December 11, 2025 at 2:03 PM
Terrific debate!
Witkoff-Dmitriev plan RE #Ukraine is wrong & it'd be crazy to start negotiations w an extreme RUS position.
@tderyugina.bsky.social @ilonasolohub.bsky.social, Anastassia Fedyk, James Hodson & I have a counter-proposal that would give genuine peace.
Our 28 points vs RUS 28 points.
#UkrainianView
@tderyugina.bsky.social @ilonasolohub.bsky.social, Anastassia Fedyk, James Hodson & I have a counter-proposal that would give genuine peace.
Our 28 points vs RUS 28 points.
#UkrainianView
The genuine peace plan
Recently a number of media outlets published a 28-point “peace plan”. In reality, this plan will only escalate the war...
voxukraine.org
November 27, 2025 at 2:56 AM
Witkoff-Dmitriev plan RE #Ukraine is wrong & it'd be crazy to start negotiations w an extreme RUS position.
@tderyugina.bsky.social @ilonasolohub.bsky.social, Anastassia Fedyk, James Hodson & I have a counter-proposal that would give genuine peace.
Our 28 points vs RUS 28 points.
#UkrainianView
@tderyugina.bsky.social @ilonasolohub.bsky.social, Anastassia Fedyk, James Hodson & I have a counter-proposal that would give genuine peace.
Our 28 points vs RUS 28 points.
#UkrainianView