Cezary Polakowski
@arutha86.bsky.social
Soil physics, biodiversity, greenhouses gases. PhD, lab supervisor at Institute of Agrophysics PAS, Poland
Reposted by Cezary Polakowski
Higher RCPs and SSPs likely provide the most accurate indications of climate change over the next decades.
We need scenarios more in line with policy based greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions and models with paleoclimate and NASA satellite corrected climate sensitivity:
We need scenarios more in line with policy based greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions and models with paleoclimate and NASA satellite corrected climate sensitivity:
December 30, 2025 at 8:14 PM
Higher RCPs and SSPs likely provide the most accurate indications of climate change over the next decades.
We need scenarios more in line with policy based greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions and models with paleoclimate and NASA satellite corrected climate sensitivity:
We need scenarios more in line with policy based greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions and models with paleoclimate and NASA satellite corrected climate sensitivity:
Reposted by Cezary Polakowski
And we've ain't seen nothing yet..
Based on NASA CERES satellite observations, the amount of regional warming in the pipeline keeps increasing‼️
The level of Absorbed Solar Radiation is increasing and Outgoing Longwave Radiation can't keep up.
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation is still negative:
Based on NASA CERES satellite observations, the amount of regional warming in the pipeline keeps increasing‼️
The level of Absorbed Solar Radiation is increasing and Outgoing Longwave Radiation can't keep up.
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation is still negative:
December 30, 2025 at 3:05 PM
And we've ain't seen nothing yet..
Based on NASA CERES satellite observations, the amount of regional warming in the pipeline keeps increasing‼️
The level of Absorbed Solar Radiation is increasing and Outgoing Longwave Radiation can't keep up.
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation is still negative:
Based on NASA CERES satellite observations, the amount of regional warming in the pipeline keeps increasing‼️
The level of Absorbed Solar Radiation is increasing and Outgoing Longwave Radiation can't keep up.
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation is still negative:
Reposted by Cezary Polakowski
Clusterf&%k alert!
The 3-year running average for the global surface temperature anomaly is now 1.52°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline. This is likely the hottest 3-year running mean in over 120,000 years.
The 3-year running average for the global surface temperature anomaly is now 1.52°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline. This is likely the hottest 3-year running mean in over 120,000 years.
December 30, 2025 at 4:44 PM
Clusterf&%k alert!
The 3-year running average for the global surface temperature anomaly is now 1.52°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline. This is likely the hottest 3-year running mean in over 120,000 years.
The 3-year running average for the global surface temperature anomaly is now 1.52°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline. This is likely the hottest 3-year running mean in over 120,000 years.
Reposted by Cezary Polakowski
Christmas attack on civilians in Kyiv. Sure, the Russians want peace
‼️ Movement of missiles and drones during the massive Russian attack on Ukraine
December 27, 2025 at 9:43 AM
Christmas attack on civilians in Kyiv. Sure, the Russians want peace
Reposted by Cezary Polakowski
I've put together my predictions for 2026 and 2027 temperatures over at The Climate Brink. I expect 2026 will likely end up similar to 2023 and 2025 at ~1.4C, while 2027 will likely be considerably warmer (conditional on El Nino): www.theclimatebrink....
December 20, 2025 at 5:43 PM
I've put together my predictions for 2026 and 2027 temperatures over at The Climate Brink. I expect 2026 will likely end up similar to 2023 and 2025 at ~1.4C, while 2027 will likely be considerably warmer (conditional on El Nino): www.theclimatebrink....
Reposted by Cezary Polakowski
Let’s see what we can learn from temperature change in the next two years – mailchi.mp/caa/global-t...
Also available on Substack: jimehansen.substack.com/.../global-t....
Also available on Substack: jimehansen.substack.com/.../global-t....
December 18, 2025 at 2:26 PM
Let’s see what we can learn from temperature change in the next two years – mailchi.mp/caa/global-t...
Also available on Substack: jimehansen.substack.com/.../global-t....
Also available on Substack: jimehansen.substack.com/.../global-t....
Reposted by Cezary Polakowski
🫠
FOX: If you cut something by 100%, the cost goes down to 0. If you cut it by 600%, the drug companies are actually paying you
LUTNICK: What he's saying is if a drug was $100 and you bring it down to $13, it's down 7 times
F: Not a 600% cut
L: But it's 700% higher price before. It's down 700% now
LUTNICK: What he's saying is if a drug was $100 and you bring it down to $13, it's down 7 times
F: Not a 600% cut
L: But it's 700% higher price before. It's down 700% now
December 18, 2025 at 10:53 PM
🫠
Reposted by Cezary Polakowski
There is much more warming in the pipeline than simple models suggest.
Especially regionally.
Observations trump simple models.
Global averaging of (outdated CMIP6) models is pretty much useless with regards to what most people care about:
understanding real world impacts.
Especially regionally.
Observations trump simple models.
Global averaging of (outdated CMIP6) models is pretty much useless with regards to what most people care about:
understanding real world impacts.
December 14, 2025 at 2:53 PM
There is much more warming in the pipeline than simple models suggest.
Especially regionally.
Observations trump simple models.
Global averaging of (outdated CMIP6) models is pretty much useless with regards to what most people care about:
understanding real world impacts.
Especially regionally.
Observations trump simple models.
Global averaging of (outdated CMIP6) models is pretty much useless with regards to what most people care about:
understanding real world impacts.
Reposted by Cezary Polakowski
This is bad for my mental health!
The sick joke called the Trump administration took the @EPA Climate Indicators website offline on October 10, 'World Mental Health Day'...
I backed up the 800,000 year greenhouse gas graphs and data in the link below, please share!
The sick joke called the Trump administration took the @EPA Climate Indicators website offline on October 10, 'World Mental Health Day'...
I backed up the 800,000 year greenhouse gas graphs and data in the link below, please share!
December 8, 2025 at 2:30 PM
This is bad for my mental health!
The sick joke called the Trump administration took the @EPA Climate Indicators website offline on October 10, 'World Mental Health Day'...
I backed up the 800,000 year greenhouse gas graphs and data in the link below, please share!
The sick joke called the Trump administration took the @EPA Climate Indicators website offline on October 10, 'World Mental Health Day'...
I backed up the 800,000 year greenhouse gas graphs and data in the link below, please share!
Reposted by Cezary Polakowski
'As scientists, we are increasingly being asked to tell the public the truth about the crises we face in simple and direct terms.
The truth is that we are shocked by the ferocity of the extreme weather events in 2023.
We are afraid of the uncharted territory that we have now entered.'
1/2
The truth is that we are shocked by the ferocity of the extreme weather events in 2023.
We are afraid of the uncharted territory that we have now entered.'
1/2
December 8, 2025 at 1:38 PM
'As scientists, we are increasingly being asked to tell the public the truth about the crises we face in simple and direct terms.
The truth is that we are shocked by the ferocity of the extreme weather events in 2023.
We are afraid of the uncharted territory that we have now entered.'
1/2
The truth is that we are shocked by the ferocity of the extreme weather events in 2023.
We are afraid of the uncharted territory that we have now entered.'
1/2
Reposted by Cezary Polakowski
This is such a great visualization of the carbon cycle and of how humanity has completely altered it within a geological instant, by @rarohde.bsky.social:
December 7, 2025 at 11:17 PM
This is such a great visualization of the carbon cycle and of how humanity has completely altered it within a geological instant, by @rarohde.bsky.social:
Reposted by Cezary Polakowski
Check out Zeke’s latest model-observation comparison. As I’ve said many times, climate models are excellent.
I have a new update to climate model-observation comparisons over at The Climate Brink, covering CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6. Models perform well globally. The latest generation shows too much long-term warming but better reproduces recent trends: www.theclimatebrink....
December 6, 2025 at 11:31 PM
Check out Zeke’s latest model-observation comparison. As I’ve said many times, climate models are excellent.
Reposted by Cezary Polakowski
If someone tells you the CO2 is coming out of the sea, they try to fool you. We know exactly where it comes from and where it goes. We emit CO2, about half of that stays in the atmosphere, and a quarter each is taken up by oceans and forests.
Measured facts!
globalcarbonbudget.org/gcb-2025/
Measured facts!
globalcarbonbudget.org/gcb-2025/
December 7, 2025 at 9:38 AM
If someone tells you the CO2 is coming out of the sea, they try to fool you. We know exactly where it comes from and where it goes. We emit CO2, about half of that stays in the atmosphere, and a quarter each is taken up by oceans and forests.
Measured facts!
globalcarbonbudget.org/gcb-2025/
Measured facts!
globalcarbonbudget.org/gcb-2025/
Reposted by Cezary Polakowski
Collapse of key Atlantic current could bring extreme drought to Europe for centuries, study finds. @swinda.bsky.social
That's an under-appreciated impact of #AMOC shutdown, of particular concern given the recent results showing much higher likelihood of this. 1/2
www.livescience.com/planet-earth...
That's an under-appreciated impact of #AMOC shutdown, of particular concern given the recent results showing much higher likelihood of this. 1/2
www.livescience.com/planet-earth...
December 5, 2025 at 11:42 AM
Collapse of key Atlantic current could bring extreme drought to Europe for centuries, study finds. @swinda.bsky.social
That's an under-appreciated impact of #AMOC shutdown, of particular concern given the recent results showing much higher likelihood of this. 1/2
www.livescience.com/planet-earth...
That's an under-appreciated impact of #AMOC shutdown, of particular concern given the recent results showing much higher likelihood of this. 1/2
www.livescience.com/planet-earth...
Reposted by Cezary Polakowski
It's been quite something to see one of the world's leading climate scientists, James Hansen, being vilified the past years for presenting data showing the rapid acceleration of global and regional warming, associated with continued greenhouse gas emissions and rapid reduction of air pollution.
November 30, 2025 at 12:50 PM
It's been quite something to see one of the world's leading climate scientists, James Hansen, being vilified the past years for presenting data showing the rapid acceleration of global and regional warming, associated with continued greenhouse gas emissions and rapid reduction of air pollution.
Reposted by Cezary Polakowski
And just like that, Arctic sea-ice extent is now over 200,000 square kilometers below the previous daily record for November 28th.
November 29, 2025 at 12:48 PM
And just like that, Arctic sea-ice extent is now over 200,000 square kilometers below the previous daily record for November 28th.
Reposted by Cezary Polakowski
October 2025 was the warmest October on record for the #Arctic. Arctic sea-ice extent is currently the lowest on record for late November. My newest 'climate viz of the month' summarizes some of this latest data: zacklabe.com/climate-viz-...
#ClimateChange #SciComm #OpenScience #OpenData #DataViz
#ClimateChange #SciComm #OpenScience #OpenData #DataViz
Climate Viz of the Month
October 2025 Hi everyone! Instead of designing a new special feature visualization, this next ‘climate viz of the month’ blog will focus on briefly summarizing the recent extremes in th…
zacklabe.com
November 29, 2025 at 8:42 PM
October 2025 was the warmest October on record for the #Arctic. Arctic sea-ice extent is currently the lowest on record for late November. My newest 'climate viz of the month' summarizes some of this latest data: zacklabe.com/climate-viz-...
#ClimateChange #SciComm #OpenScience #OpenData #DataViz
#ClimateChange #SciComm #OpenScience #OpenData #DataViz
Reposted by Cezary Polakowski
Giving in to authoritarianism rather than sticking up for free speech. What has become of the BBC?
I wish I didn’t have to share this. But the BBC has decided to censor my first Reith Lecture.
They deleted the line in which I describe Donald Trump as “the most openly corrupt president in American history.” /1
They deleted the line in which I describe Donald Trump as “the most openly corrupt president in American history.” /1
November 25, 2025 at 1:02 PM
Giving in to authoritarianism rather than sticking up for free speech. What has become of the BBC?
Reposted by Cezary Polakowski
This year's #Arctic sea ice freeze-up is clearly the latest on record for the Baffin Bay region (located between Greenland and the Canadian Arctic Archipelago). The extent of ice cover is a record low for the date there.
Data from @nsidc.bsky.social at nsidc.org/data/seaice_...
Data from @nsidc.bsky.social at nsidc.org/data/seaice_...
November 24, 2025 at 3:29 PM
This year's #Arctic sea ice freeze-up is clearly the latest on record for the Baffin Bay region (located between Greenland and the Canadian Arctic Archipelago). The extent of ice cover is a record low for the date there.
Data from @nsidc.bsky.social at nsidc.org/data/seaice_...
Data from @nsidc.bsky.social at nsidc.org/data/seaice_...
Reposted by Cezary Polakowski
This is not a peace plan. It is a proposal that weakens Ukraine and divides America from Europe, preparing the way for a larger war in the future. In the meantime, it benefits unnamed Russian and American investors, at the expense of everyone else.
www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2025/1...
www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2025/1...
Trump Has a Recipe for War and Corruption, Not Peace
Who would benefit from the White House’s 28-point proposal for Ukraine?
www.theatlantic.com
November 22, 2025 at 11:11 AM
This is not a peace plan. It is a proposal that weakens Ukraine and divides America from Europe, preparing the way for a larger war in the future. In the meantime, it benefits unnamed Russian and American investors, at the expense of everyone else.
www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2025/1...
www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2025/1...
Reposted by Cezary Polakowski
When a government speaks responsibly about climate risks. Iceland's climate minister Jóhannsson:
"We believe that confronting climate tipping points and the risks they pose openly is not a sign of 'pessimism' or 'alarmism' but a sign of realism and responsibility."
youtu.be/B-0eQnEEsYA?...
"We believe that confronting climate tipping points and the risks they pose openly is not a sign of 'pessimism' or 'alarmism' but a sign of realism and responsibility."
youtu.be/B-0eQnEEsYA?...
After COP30 Fire and Floods: AMOC Shutdown
YouTube video by International Cryosphere Climate Initiative
youtu.be
November 23, 2025 at 6:43 PM
When a government speaks responsibly about climate risks. Iceland's climate minister Jóhannsson:
"We believe that confronting climate tipping points and the risks they pose openly is not a sign of 'pessimism' or 'alarmism' but a sign of realism and responsibility."
youtu.be/B-0eQnEEsYA?...
"We believe that confronting climate tipping points and the risks they pose openly is not a sign of 'pessimism' or 'alarmism' but a sign of realism and responsibility."
youtu.be/B-0eQnEEsYA?...
Reposted by Cezary Polakowski
This graphic predicts future temperatures, based on continued accelerated warming:
1.50°C by 2026
2.00°C by 2036
2.50°C by 2045
2.85°C by 2050
Of course, a lot of non-linearities are possible before 2050. Like a net-zero, carbon-free, sustainable vegan utopia. Or the other ...
1.50°C by 2026
2.00°C by 2036
2.50°C by 2045
2.85°C by 2050
Of course, a lot of non-linearities are possible before 2050. Like a net-zero, carbon-free, sustainable vegan utopia. Or the other ...
November 23, 2025 at 8:12 PM
This graphic predicts future temperatures, based on continued accelerated warming:
1.50°C by 2026
2.00°C by 2036
2.50°C by 2045
2.85°C by 2050
Of course, a lot of non-linearities are possible before 2050. Like a net-zero, carbon-free, sustainable vegan utopia. Or the other ...
1.50°C by 2026
2.00°C by 2036
2.50°C by 2045
2.85°C by 2050
Of course, a lot of non-linearities are possible before 2050. Like a net-zero, carbon-free, sustainable vegan utopia. Or the other ...
Reposted by Cezary Polakowski
COP30 President:
"We want to ensure transparency, inclusivity, predictability and legitimacy.
Does everyone agree with this approach?"
Saudi Arabia:
"Hell no, we need you to confirm that our backroom huddle meetings remain, so we can halt progress without anyone noticing"
(Somewhat paraphrasing)
"We want to ensure transparency, inclusivity, predictability and legitimacy.
Does everyone agree with this approach?"
Saudi Arabia:
"Hell no, we need you to confirm that our backroom huddle meetings remain, so we can halt progress without anyone noticing"
(Somewhat paraphrasing)
November 22, 2025 at 7:47 PM
COP30 President:
"We want to ensure transparency, inclusivity, predictability and legitimacy.
Does everyone agree with this approach?"
Saudi Arabia:
"Hell no, we need you to confirm that our backroom huddle meetings remain, so we can halt progress without anyone noticing"
(Somewhat paraphrasing)
"We want to ensure transparency, inclusivity, predictability and legitimacy.
Does everyone agree with this approach?"
Saudi Arabia:
"Hell no, we need you to confirm that our backroom huddle meetings remain, so we can halt progress without anyone noticing"
(Somewhat paraphrasing)