Dustin Jalbert
@2x4caster.bsky.social
Wood products/ housing/ Mainer in the Boston suburbs
Pinned
Dustin Jalbert
@2x4caster.bsky.social
· Nov 13
Alright, I gave this a shot, but I'm sure I'm missing people here.
Let me know who should be added!
Let me know who should be added!
Meant to post this here yesterday.
Viewpoint we posted a few days ago for subscribers, but have decided to post without the paywall.
Check it out!
www.fastmarkets.com/insights/doe...
Viewpoint we posted a few days ago for subscribers, but have decided to post without the paywall.
Check it out!
www.fastmarkets.com/insights/doe...
Does the US really need Canadian wood products supply? - Fastmarkets
Understand how the 25% tariffs on Canadian goods would impact US lumber markets, and how reliant the US market is on Canadian lumber supply.
www.fastmarkets.com
March 13, 2025 at 1:43 AM
Meant to post this here yesterday.
Viewpoint we posted a few days ago for subscribers, but have decided to post without the paywall.
Check it out!
www.fastmarkets.com/insights/doe...
Viewpoint we posted a few days ago for subscribers, but have decided to post without the paywall.
Check it out!
www.fastmarkets.com/insights/doe...
Reposted by Dustin Jalbert
Can imagine some things shaking out inflation dynamics in the coming months but for the time being inflation looks to be headed toward 2% as lags and quirks fall out of the 12-month window.
Lags in housing and wages + stock market outperformance account for 45 of the remaining 55bp overshoot
Lags in housing and wages + stock market outperformance account for 45 of the remaining 55bp overshoot
February 13, 2025 at 6:11 PM
Can imagine some things shaking out inflation dynamics in the coming months but for the time being inflation looks to be headed toward 2% as lags and quirks fall out of the 12-month window.
Lags in housing and wages + stock market outperformance account for 45 of the remaining 55bp overshoot
Lags in housing and wages + stock market outperformance account for 45 of the remaining 55bp overshoot
Reposted by Dustin Jalbert
If the tariff is on fabricated steel, double those numbers.
February 11, 2025 at 12:06 PM
If the tariff is on fabricated steel, double those numbers.
Reposted by Dustin Jalbert
A 20% tariff on mill steel, after all shipping, fabrication, delivery and labor for installation is = 5% cost increase on structural steel installed. That is = to 0.5% increase to total building final cost.
February 11, 2025 at 12:03 PM
A 20% tariff on mill steel, after all shipping, fabrication, delivery and labor for installation is = 5% cost increase on structural steel installed. That is = to 0.5% increase to total building final cost.
So how much are these steel and aluminum tariffs gonna add to construction costs @edzarenski.bsky.social?
February 11, 2025 at 12:38 AM
So how much are these steel and aluminum tariffs gonna add to construction costs @edzarenski.bsky.social?
Reposted by Dustin Jalbert
First time posting my actual work on Bluesky.
I updated my Lumber & Logs charts last night, with 2023 FAO stats. 🧵
Starting with Softwood Lumber Production...
I updated my Lumber & Logs charts last night, with 2023 FAO stats. 🧵
Starting with Softwood Lumber Production...
February 5, 2025 at 6:59 PM
First time posting my actual work on Bluesky.
I updated my Lumber & Logs charts last night, with 2023 FAO stats. 🧵
Starting with Softwood Lumber Production...
I updated my Lumber & Logs charts last night, with 2023 FAO stats. 🧵
Starting with Softwood Lumber Production...
Reposted by Dustin Jalbert
JOLTS:
1/ Tentative evidence that labor market stabilization may be underway. Hires and quits haven't fallen much since late summer.
We've had headfakes like this before so I'm cautious, but stabilization is my baseline for 2025 (this is Dec 2024 data).
1/ Tentative evidence that labor market stabilization may be underway. Hires and quits haven't fallen much since late summer.
We've had headfakes like this before so I'm cautious, but stabilization is my baseline for 2025 (this is Dec 2024 data).
February 4, 2025 at 3:22 PM
JOLTS:
1/ Tentative evidence that labor market stabilization may be underway. Hires and quits haven't fallen much since late summer.
We've had headfakes like this before so I'm cautious, but stabilization is my baseline for 2025 (this is Dec 2024 data).
1/ Tentative evidence that labor market stabilization may be underway. Hires and quits haven't fallen much since late summer.
We've had headfakes like this before so I'm cautious, but stabilization is my baseline for 2025 (this is Dec 2024 data).
Good summary on the agricultural commodities impacted if 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico do happen.
Yours truly also makes a late appearance!
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Yours truly also makes a late appearance!
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
February 4, 2025 at 2:50 PM
Good summary on the agricultural commodities impacted if 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico do happen.
Yours truly also makes a late appearance!
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Yours truly also makes a late appearance!
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Key takeaway from today seems to be that team "Trump isn't serious about tariffs" probably right.
All the bluster and grief directed at Canada just to turn around and punt on tariffs when Canada largely just reaffirmed pledges from December seems pretty telling.
What am I missing?
All the bluster and grief directed at Canada just to turn around and punt on tariffs when Canada largely just reaffirmed pledges from December seems pretty telling.
What am I missing?
February 3, 2025 at 11:51 PM
Key takeaway from today seems to be that team "Trump isn't serious about tariffs" probably right.
All the bluster and grief directed at Canada just to turn around and punt on tariffs when Canada largely just reaffirmed pledges from December seems pretty telling.
What am I missing?
All the bluster and grief directed at Canada just to turn around and punt on tariffs when Canada largely just reaffirmed pledges from December seems pretty telling.
What am I missing?
Reposted by Dustin Jalbert
BREAKING: US tariffs on Canada paused for 30 days, Trudeau says
February 3, 2025 at 9:37 PM
BREAKING: US tariffs on Canada paused for 30 days, Trudeau says
Reposted by Dustin Jalbert
10-year yields have been falling, probably because Trump is cutting spending, raising taxes, and hurting economic growth:
February 3, 2025 at 2:57 AM
10-year yields have been falling, probably because Trump is cutting spending, raising taxes, and hurting economic growth:
So what's going on with crypto, you guys?
February 3, 2025 at 2:18 AM
So what's going on with crypto, you guys?
So when's he walking it all back? Seems like the next logical question?
February 2, 2025 at 9:56 PM
So when's he walking it all back? Seems like the next logical question?
Reposted by Dustin Jalbert
If there is any doubt that tariffs are passed through to consumers, the cost of propane to heat my house just went up by the amount of the tariff
February 2, 2025 at 5:20 PM
If there is any doubt that tariffs are passed through to consumers, the cost of propane to heat my house just went up by the amount of the tariff
Groupings might need to
be tweaked a bit, but US economic policy in a nutshell rn.
be tweaked a bit, but US economic policy in a nutshell rn.
February 2, 2025 at 2:46 PM
Groupings might need to
be tweaked a bit, but US economic policy in a nutshell rn.
be tweaked a bit, but US economic policy in a nutshell rn.
Homebuilders are going to be super rattled by these tariffs and knock-on effects in rate markets.
Builders are already facing a ton of margin pressure, but surging wood products and other building materials prices in response to tariffs only going to make matters worse.
Builders are already facing a ton of margin pressure, but surging wood products and other building materials prices in response to tariffs only going to make matters worse.
February 2, 2025 at 4:19 AM
Homebuilders are going to be super rattled by these tariffs and knock-on effects in rate markets.
Builders are already facing a ton of margin pressure, but surging wood products and other building materials prices in response to tariffs only going to make matters worse.
Builders are already facing a ton of margin pressure, but surging wood products and other building materials prices in response to tariffs only going to make matters worse.
On vacation, just seeing this now.
January 31, 2025 at 1:33 AM
On vacation, just seeing this now.
January 30, 2025 at 6:55 PM
Wtf is DeepSeek, you guys.
January 27, 2025 at 5:48 PM
Wtf is DeepSeek, you guys.
Every non-Chiefs fan rn:
"The Chiefs will never get a bad call against them again in my lifetime"
"The Chiefs will never get a bad call against them again in my lifetime"
January 27, 2025 at 2:14 AM
Every non-Chiefs fan rn:
"The Chiefs will never get a bad call against them again in my lifetime"
"The Chiefs will never get a bad call against them again in my lifetime"
Lumber might be taking a back seat this week, you guys.
January 26, 2025 at 12:31 AM
Lumber might be taking a back seat this week, you guys.
Astounded how little security buying there's been in the lumber market these last few weeks.
Very few US traders believe 25% tariffs Feb 1.
That's probably true, but given there's been almost no buffer inventory built, odds of tariffs hitting seem mispriced.
Very few US traders believe 25% tariffs Feb 1.
That's probably true, but given there's been almost no buffer inventory built, odds of tariffs hitting seem mispriced.
January 24, 2025 at 7:19 PM
Astounded how little security buying there's been in the lumber market these last few weeks.
Very few US traders believe 25% tariffs Feb 1.
That's probably true, but given there's been almost no buffer inventory built, odds of tariffs hitting seem mispriced.
Very few US traders believe 25% tariffs Feb 1.
That's probably true, but given there's been almost no buffer inventory built, odds of tariffs hitting seem mispriced.
Man, didn't realize Melania was such a big Sergio Leone fan!
January 20, 2025 at 11:43 PM
Man, didn't realize Melania was such a big Sergio Leone fan!
Ngl, the cryptobois panic setting in on the other site is pretty fun to watch.
January 20, 2025 at 3:43 AM
Ngl, the cryptobois panic setting in on the other site is pretty fun to watch.