Dustin Jalbert
@2x4caster.bsky.social
Wood products/ housing/ Mainer in the Boston suburbs
Hard to say, but for reference, here's how harvesting has changed on federal lands over the decades. A dramatic drop since the 1990's.
Loosening permitting and habit protection rules even a little could move the needle.
It's quite complicated though, so hard to say.
Loosening permitting and habit protection rules even a little could move the needle.
It's quite complicated though, so hard to say.
March 7, 2025 at 12:03 PM
Hard to say, but for reference, here's how harvesting has changed on federal lands over the decades. A dramatic drop since the 1990's.
Loosening permitting and habit protection rules even a little could move the needle.
It's quite complicated though, so hard to say.
Loosening permitting and habit protection rules even a little could move the needle.
It's quite complicated though, so hard to say.
Groupings might need to
be tweaked a bit, but US economic policy in a nutshell rn.
be tweaked a bit, but US economic policy in a nutshell rn.
February 2, 2025 at 2:46 PM
Groupings might need to
be tweaked a bit, but US economic policy in a nutshell rn.
be tweaked a bit, but US economic policy in a nutshell rn.
January 30, 2025 at 6:55 PM
Wtf is DeepSeek, you guys.
January 27, 2025 at 5:48 PM
Wtf is DeepSeek, you guys.
Me when this week if vacation ends:
January 26, 2025 at 1:36 AM
Me when this week if vacation ends:
Lumber might be taking a back seat this week, you guys.
January 26, 2025 at 12:31 AM
Lumber might be taking a back seat this week, you guys.
For whatever its worth...via Polymarket. This is just "before March" as well.
January 24, 2025 at 7:57 PM
For whatever its worth...via Polymarket. This is just "before March" as well.
Man, didn't realize Melania was such a big Sergio Leone fan!
January 20, 2025 at 11:43 PM
Man, didn't realize Melania was such a big Sergio Leone fan!
Last thought here: a lot of concern about multifamily under construction falling, but it seems important to recognize that single family under construction has basically stabilized.
Single family homes have double the floor space of a typical multifamily home and are a bigger source of employment.
Single family homes have double the floor space of a typical multifamily home and are a bigger source of employment.
January 17, 2025 at 2:29 PM
Last thought here: a lot of concern about multifamily under construction falling, but it seems important to recognize that single family under construction has basically stabilized.
Single family homes have double the floor space of a typical multifamily home and are a bigger source of employment.
Single family homes have double the floor space of a typical multifamily home and are a bigger source of employment.
Just checked this now, but its also worth noting that sequentially, December was just a better month to build homes in the South and Midwest just looking at precipitation.
January 17, 2025 at 2:12 PM
Just checked this now, but its also worth noting that sequentially, December was just a better month to build homes in the South and Midwest just looking at precipitation.
Again, I tend to deemphasize these next few months as there's always goofiness in the data, but, still a very encouraging report in the face of a ton of headwinds. Single family trending up despite all the gloom and gloom. Multis have basically bottomed, likely makeup for hurricane disruptions.
January 17, 2025 at 1:41 PM
Again, I tend to deemphasize these next few months as there's always goofiness in the data, but, still a very encouraging report in the face of a ton of headwinds. Single family trending up despite all the gloom and gloom. Multis have basically bottomed, likely makeup for hurricane disruptions.
Loooooool...this one gonna tie people in a pretzel.
January 17, 2025 at 1:32 PM
Loooooool...this one gonna tie people in a pretzel.
Also appears there's some sort of odd averaging thing going on in FRED with the history stretched far back.
January 17, 2025 at 3:33 AM
Also appears there's some sort of odd averaging thing going on in FRED with the history stretched far back.
Tough times ahead for Canada...ooof.
January 17, 2025 at 3:19 AM
Tough times ahead for Canada...ooof.
HMI up in January.
Mixed subcomponents, but definitely bucking some of the bearish outlook on housing.
Mixed subcomponents, but definitely bucking some of the bearish outlook on housing.
January 16, 2025 at 3:12 PM
HMI up in January.
Mixed subcomponents, but definitely bucking some of the bearish outlook on housing.
Mixed subcomponents, but definitely bucking some of the bearish outlook on housing.
Building material sales though?
Looks like the September-November bounce was probably more a hurricane/weather story.
Proxy for volume turning over as well as building material inflation pretty muted now.
Looks like the September-November bounce was probably more a hurricane/weather story.
Proxy for volume turning over as well as building material inflation pretty muted now.
January 16, 2025 at 1:57 PM
Building material sales though?
Looks like the September-November bounce was probably more a hurricane/weather story.
Proxy for volume turning over as well as building material inflation pretty muted now.
Looks like the September-November bounce was probably more a hurricane/weather story.
Proxy for volume turning over as well as building material inflation pretty muted now.
Truly incredible. We're so back.
January 16, 2025 at 1:48 PM
Truly incredible. We're so back.
March lumber futures still getting hammered here.
January 14, 2025 at 4:09 PM
March lumber futures still getting hammered here.
Rates + cash basis > Tariff risks for lumber at the moment.
January 13, 2025 at 8:36 PM
Rates + cash basis > Tariff risks for lumber at the moment.
There are way too many NFL wildcard teams.
January 13, 2025 at 2:03 AM
There are way too many NFL wildcard teams.
Whoa...business formations? Cranking higher.
January 10, 2025 at 9:52 PM
Whoa...business formations? Cranking higher.
Lumber futures didn't love the jobs numbers today.
January 10, 2025 at 5:24 PM
Lumber futures didn't love the jobs numbers today.
~5% on the 10 year is going to lead stuff to breaking. Maybe not in the US, but implications for other global economies via XR channels not great here.
Housing going to really struggle get off the mat if we are stuck at 7% mortgage rates this year.
Housing going to really struggle get off the mat if we are stuck at 7% mortgage rates this year.
January 10, 2025 at 1:56 PM
~5% on the 10 year is going to lead stuff to breaking. Maybe not in the US, but implications for other global economies via XR channels not great here.
Housing going to really struggle get off the mat if we are stuck at 7% mortgage rates this year.
Housing going to really struggle get off the mat if we are stuck at 7% mortgage rates this year.
For perspective on logging employment.
Some of this is due to the rise of more mechanized harvesting. But, it's also a story of people leaving a hard and dangerous living.
We aren't raising logging supply by 25% to compensate for a loss of Canadian lumber supply overnight. That's for sure.
Some of this is due to the rise of more mechanized harvesting. But, it's also a story of people leaving a hard and dangerous living.
We aren't raising logging supply by 25% to compensate for a loss of Canadian lumber supply overnight. That's for sure.
January 10, 2025 at 2:34 AM
For perspective on logging employment.
Some of this is due to the rise of more mechanized harvesting. But, it's also a story of people leaving a hard and dangerous living.
We aren't raising logging supply by 25% to compensate for a loss of Canadian lumber supply overnight. That's for sure.
Some of this is due to the rise of more mechanized harvesting. But, it's also a story of people leaving a hard and dangerous living.
We aren't raising logging supply by 25% to compensate for a loss of Canadian lumber supply overnight. That's for sure.