Tomasz Mickiewicz | Lightnews

Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 7d

JPM: ".. we remain firmly bullishly convicted in gold .. on the back of a clean, structural, continued diversification trend that has further to run ..

".. we now forecast enough demand from central banks and investors this year to ultimately push gold prices to $6,300/oz by year end .." #$GLD

Tomasz Mickiewicz @tomekmickiewicz.bsky.social · 12d

Russian oil income drops sharply as sanctions bite - 20% less revenue in 2025 compared to previous year and the fall continues. Even if China is now substituting for India as the buyer, discounts are large. giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... via @FT

Russian oil income drops sharply as sanctions bite

Moscow’s energy revenues fell by a fifth in 2025 compared with previous year

giftarticle.ft.com

Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 13d

The Dollar continues its fall today. Leading indicator for me has been the Dollar vs EM (blue). That fell below the range it was in during H2 2025 after the last Fed cut on Dec 10. The Dollar vs the G10 (black) is just about to go below that range now...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/dollar-col...

Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 14d

As precious metals go through the roof, this is the debasement trade no one's talking about. The Swedish Krona is up 8% since Jackson Hole on Aug 22. Precious metals are part of something much bigger: a flight to safety, including into low-debt currencies...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-curre...

Tomasz Mickiewicz @tomekmickiewicz.bsky.social · 14d

"First, plagiarism is pervasive and predicts adverse political selection: plagiarists are more likely to enter and advance in the public sector. Second, plagiarists perform worse when holding power"

(in China, but likely to relate to few other countries as well)

www.nber.org/papers/w3474...

A Few Bad Apples? Academic Dishonesty, Political Selection, and Institutional Performance in China

Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...

www.nber.org

Tomasz Mickiewicz @tomekmickiewicz.bsky.social · 17d

Coalition casualties in US-initiated war in Afghanistan:

Deaths
USA 2461
UK 457
Canada 159

Deaths per million
USA 7.96
UK 7.25
Canada 4.68

US is now a serious contester in worldwide ranking of lies.

Tomasz Mickiewicz @tomekmickiewicz.bsky.social · 17d

China’s fertility rate is falling even faster than expected. This FT piece explains why - giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... via @FT

Why China’s women are having fewer babies

The economy is weak, divorces are rising and fewer young people are getting married

giftarticle.ft.com

NOELREPORTS @noelreports.com · 25d

Ukraine no longer has a single fully operational power plant, Energy Minister Shmyhal. He also noted fuel supplies cover more than 20 days and imports continue, gas restrictions are not in place, and police are stepping up patrols to maintain order. Businesses are asked to turn off holiday lights.

Anne Applebaum @anneapplebaum.bsky.social · 25d

of course

Financial Times @financialtimes.com · 25d

The deal has kick-started the president’s controversial plan to sell up to 50mn barrels of Venezuelan oil, with more sales expected in the ‘coming days and weeks’. ft.trib.al/a2pf6om

Szabolcs Panyi @szabolcspanyi.bsky.social · 25d

💰🇷🇺🇷🇸 Viktor Orbán’s foreign minister says Hungary’s MOL will soon sign the first key deal to buy a majority stake in Serbia’s Russian-owned NIS. That could help NIS escape U.S. sanctions—raising the question: is Orbán fronting for Putin, or is this a real purchase? @reuters.com

Hungary's MOL could sign first deal soon to acquire stake in Serbia's NIS

Hungarian oil group MOL is expected to sign the first key deal during its talks to buy a majority stake in Serbia's Russian-owned NIS oil company in the coming days, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter S...

www.reuters.com

Tomasz Mickiewicz @tomekmickiewicz.bsky.social · Jan 9

Russian economy seems to be running out of resources and money

giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... via @FT

Russia is running out of money

Go behind the propaganda, and the intensifying strain is evident

giftarticle.ft.com

Tomasz Mickiewicz @tomekmickiewicz.bsky.social · Jan 9

This research demonstrates that over time, the US Supreme Court judges nominated by Republicans developed pro-wealthy bias in their decisions. In contrast, at the beginning of the period covered (mid 20th century) nominees by both parties were similar. www.nber.org/papers/w3464...

Ruling for the Rich: the Supreme Court over Time

Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...

www.nber.org

Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · Jan 5

US sanctions and a de facto naval blockade crushed Venezuela's oil exports towards the end of 2025. Shadow fleet oil tankers (gray) pulled back especially sharply as the US seized oil tankers. Lots of scope for Venezuela's oil exports to ramp up quickly...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/tracking-o...

European Democrats @europeandemocrats.bsky.social · Dec 31

From tomorrow, 1st of January 2026, Bulgaria officially adopts the euro.
A historic step that strengthens the country’s place at the heart of the European project and deepens economic convergence across the Union. 1/3

Tomasz Mickiewicz @tomekmickiewicz.bsky.social · Dec 29

US stocks eclipsed by rest of world in 2025 as investors diversify - giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... via @FT

US stocks eclipsed by rest of world in 2025 as investors diversify

Chinese artificial intelligence advances and the effects of Trump’s trade war have boosted markets outside the US

giftarticle.ft.com

Joey Politano🏳️‍🌈 @josephpolitano.bsky.social · Dec 27

Tariffs as a % of GDP are at the highest level in more than 100 years amidst Trump's trade war—even though tariff rates are still lower than in the 1930s, they have a much higher impact because trade volumes are much larger than in the past

Tomasz Mickiewicz @tomekmickiewicz.bsky.social · Dec 22

Unlike US administration, US top urban economists are now serious about Ukraine: www.nber.org/papers/w3459...

Rebuilding Ukraine's Cities: Maximizing Benefits and Minimizing Costs

Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...

www.nber.org

Tomasz Mickiewicz @tomekmickiewicz.bsky.social · Dec 22

"Resilience to Brexit is shown to be spatially skewed and most robust in regions spatially proximate to, and in closest regulatory alignment with, the EU." (Marc Cowling & Ross Brown)
Brexit -> export opportunities eroded and regional disparities up in the UK.
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

Discouraged exporters, regional resilience and the “Slow Burn” shock of Brexit: Unpacking the trade-related consequences for UK SMEs

Invoking the concept of regional resilience, this paper investigates how Brexit has affected the exporting behaviour of UK small and medium-sized ente…

www.sciencedirect.com

Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · Dec 20

CATO INSTITUTE:

Despite DOGE slashing jobs, government spending in every month of 2025 “was greater than in every other year .. An observer who did not know when DOGE started could not identify it” on a chart. 🤡

www.cato.org/blog/doge-pr...

Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · Dec 18

WSJ: The Trump family’s ventures since re-election “generated at least $4 billion in proceeds and paper wealth for the family as of December, according to company statements and securities filings.”

@wsj.com
www.wsj.com/politics/tru...

Tomasz Mickiewicz @tomekmickiewicz.bsky.social · Dec 17

Guess who benefits from it.

Forbes @forbes.com · Dec 17

Global crude prices rose more than 2% on Wednesday morning, just a day after dropping below $60 per barrel for the first time since May.

Crude Oil Prices Jump 2% After Trump Announces Venezuela Blockade

Global crude prices rose more than 2% on Wednesday morning, just a day after dropping below $60 per barrel for the first time since May.

www.forbes.com

Forbes @forbes.com · Dec 17

Global crude prices rose more than 2% on Wednesday morning, just a day after dropping below $60 per barrel for the first time since May.

Crude Oil Prices Jump 2% After Trump Announces Venezuela Blockade

Global crude prices rose more than 2% on Wednesday morning, just a day after dropping below $60 per barrel for the first time since May.

www.forbes.com

Tomasz Mickiewicz @tomekmickiewicz.bsky.social · Dec 16

Less pollution makes people smart.

A possible implication (mine, do not attribute to authors!): more pollution may increase the number of nice but dim voters who will be more likely to elect nice but dim leaders, or am I missing something...
www.nber.org/papers/w3455...

Impacts of Contemporaneous Air Pollution Exposure on Cognitive Performance in Kenya

Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...

www.nber.org

Tomasz Mickiewicz @tomekmickiewicz.bsky.social · Dec 16

This can be seen as a comment on tariffs. Tariffs on intermediate inputs is the best way to undercut productivity.

centreforbusinessprosperity.substack.com/p/the-quiet-...

The Quiet Engine of Productivity: How Imported Inputs Supercharge Firms

By Anwar Adem

centreforbusinessprosperity.substack.com

Tomasz Mickiewicz @tomekmickiewicz.bsky.social · Dec 9

Trumpnomics in action. First tariffs that were supposed to hit foreigners. Next subsidies for the Americans who were supposed not to suffer because of tariffs. giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... via @FT

Donald Trump announces $12bn aid package for US farmers hit by tariffs

Bailout will help mitigate cost of the president’s trade policies to the sector

giftarticle.ft.com

Tomasz Mickiewicz @tomekmickiewicz.bsky.social · Dec 1

Largest climate change costs occur "in some western regions of the United States, the Gulf Coast, and Florida. Climate costs also typically disproportionately burden lower-income households" www.nber.org/papers/w3452...

Who Bears the Burden of Climate Inaction?

Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...

www.nber.org

Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · Nov 29

“.. Three years into the generative-ai wave, demand for the technology looks surprisingly flimsy.

“.. the employment-weighted share of Americans using ai at work has fallen by a percentage point, and now sits at 11% ..”

@economist.com
www.economist.com/finance-and-...

Brian Finucane @bcfinucane.bsky.social · Nov 29

"In the 1980s, he had offered to personally negotiate a swift end to the Cold War while building what he told Soviet diplomats would be a Trump Tower across the street from the Kremlin, with their Communist regime as a business partner."

www.wsj.com/world/russia...