Tomasz Mickiewicz
tomekmickiewicz.bsky.social
Tomasz Mickiewicz
@tomekmickiewicz.bsky.social

Professor of economics @ Aston University (Birmingham, UK), editor of Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, fellow of Regional Studies Association.
Once a member of Movement for Defence of Human and Civil Rights, opposing Soviet regime in Poland. .. more

Economics 40%
Business 37%

"Resilience to Brexit is shown to be spatially skewed and most robust in regions spatially proximate to, and in closest regulatory alignment with, the EU." (Marc Cowling & Ross Brown)
Brexit -> export opportunities eroded and regional disparities up in the UK.
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Discouraged exporters, regional resilience and the “Slow Burn” shock of Brexit: Unpacking the trade-related consequences for UK SMEs
Invoking the concept of regional resilience, this paper investigates how Brexit has affected the exporting behaviour of UK small and medium-sized ente…
www.sciencedirect.com
CATO INSTITUTE:

Despite DOGE slashing jobs, government spending in every month of 2025 “was greater than in every other year .. An observer who did not know when DOGE started could not identify it” on a chart. 🤡

www.cato.org/blog/doge-pr...
WSJ: The Trump family’s ventures since re-election “generated at least $4 billion in proceeds and paper wealth for the family as of December, according to company statements and securities filings.”

@wsj.com
www.wsj.com/politics/tru...

Guess who benefits from it.

Reposted by Tomasz Mickiewicz

Global crude prices rose more than 2% on Wednesday morning, just a day after dropping below $60 per barrel for the first time since May.
Crude Oil Prices Jump 2% After Trump Announces Venezuela Blockade
Global crude prices rose more than 2% on Wednesday morning, just a day after dropping below $60 per barrel for the first time since May.
www.forbes.com

Less pollution makes people smart.

A possible implication (mine, do not attribute to authors!): more pollution may increase the number of nice but dim voters who will be more likely to elect nice but dim leaders, or am I missing something...
www.nber.org/papers/w3455...
Impacts of Contemporaneous Air Pollution Exposure on Cognitive Performance in Kenya
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
www.nber.org

This can be seen as a comment on tariffs. Tariffs on intermediate inputs is the best way to undercut productivity.

centreforbusinessprosperity.substack.com/p/the-quiet-...
The Quiet Engine of Productivity: How Imported Inputs Supercharge Firms
By Anwar Adem
centreforbusinessprosperity.substack.com

Trumpnomics in action. First tariffs that were supposed to hit foreigners. Next subsidies for the Americans who were supposed not to suffer because of tariffs. giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... via @FT
Donald Trump announces $12bn aid package for US farmers hit by tariffs
Bailout will help mitigate cost of the president’s trade policies to the sector
giftarticle.ft.com

Largest climate change costs occur "in some western regions of the United States, the Gulf Coast, and Florida. Climate costs also typically disproportionately burden lower-income households" www.nber.org/papers/w3452...
Who Bears the Burden of Climate Inaction?
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
www.nber.org
“.. Three years into the generative-ai wave, demand for the technology looks surprisingly flimsy.

“.. the employment-weighted share of Americans using ai at work has fallen by a percentage point, and now sits at 11% ..”

@economist.com
www.economist.com/finance-and-...

Reposted by Tomasz Mickiewicz

"In the 1980s, he had offered to personally negotiate a swift end to the Cold War while building what he told Soviet diplomats would be a Trump Tower across the street from the Kremlin, with their Communist regime as a business partner."

www.wsj.com/world/russia...
Make Money Not War: Trump’s Real Plan for Peace in Ukraine
The Kremlin pitched the White House on peace through business. To Europe’s dismay, the president and his envoy are on board.
www.wsj.com

"States view educated yet excluded groups as politically threatening and prioritize their surveillance" www.nber.org/papers/w3449...
The Logic of State Surveillance
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
www.nber.org

Reposted by Tomasz Mickiewicz

Trump’s affordability problem: in charts on.ft.com/3M0RL7A
Trump’s affordability problem: in charts
Americans are unhappy with the cost of living, with inflation higher than the month before the president retook office
on.ft.com

Reposted by Tomasz Mickiewicz

There is no good reason for Trump to be involved in Ukraine negotiations.

Europe pays everything; Trump pays nothing.

Epstein emails and new leaks also prove Trump is compromised and under Russian blackmail, while Witkoff clearly backs Moscow over the US and Ukraine.

Trump out!

Reposted by Tomasz Mickiewicz

How Greece’s recovery can be an inspiration for Europe on.ft.com/4oc5e9T | opinion
How Greece’s recovery can be an inspiration for Europe
The Eurozone’s former problem child is now borrowing more cheaply than much of the continent
on.ft.com

Reposted by Tomasz Mickiewicz

Russia’s economy is not doing well

Reposted by Tomasz Mickiewicz

Volume of China's crude oil imports from Russia down more than 10% from its peak. In October the discount on Russia's oil was ~5%, after a few months when the discount was 2-3%. Threat of secondary sanctions having some effect?

Reposted by Tomasz Mickiewicz

This nice piece on our new
@bofit.suomenpankki.fi
DP also has some addional examples of goods whose prices have risen A LOT for Russian customers because of sanctions.
@chriscook.news
🇷🇺🇨🇳
on.ft.com/4p1N63Y Chinese exporters charge Russia more for war supplies as sanctions bite
Chinese exporters charge Russia more for war supplies as sanctions bite
Price increases show that western restrictions are limiting Moscow’s capabilities, Bank of Finland research finds
on.ft.com

Reposted by Tomasz Mickiewicz

the impact of the March 2025 25% tariff on steel and aluminium:

o Foreign companies absorbed a quarter to a third of the tariff burden through reduced export prices

o Three-quarters of the tariff is passed through onto consumers of steel and aluminuim

Reposted by Tomasz Mickiewicz

Russia's flagship Urals crude is being offered to India's refiners at the cheapest price in at least 2yrs, Bloomberg reported

The discount reached $7per barrel compared to Dated Brent,with the offer applying to oil loaded in December&delivered in January,according to people familiar with the matter

Reposted by Tomasz Mickiewicz

We wrote a paper on Russia sanctions and Russia's import prices. Because of sanctions Russia must pay MUCH more for the sanctioned goods it buys.
@bofit.suomenpankki.fi
A thread:
Heli Simola and I wrote about the effect of sanctions on unit prices of Russia’s imports. I.e., how much does Russia have to pay more for goods EU & co have sanctioned, when it imports them from China, Türkiye and other countries?
@bofit.suomenpankki.fi DP 8/2025
🇷🇺🇨🇳🇹🇷
1/

www.bofit.fi/en/

Reposted by Tomasz Mickiewicz

Trump's new 'peace proposal' is all about extracting as much money as possible on.ft.com/4o9OtvW
Donald Trump wields dealmaking diplomacy to shape US foreign policy
President’s latest peacemaking effort in Ukraine involves another quest for a payout
on.ft.com

Reposted by Tomasz Mickiewicz

By the way, mass deportation causes rising prices in the United States.

This is because it removes a crucial ingredient of production in key sectors like food and construction, without reducing demand much.

Sane demand chasing reduced supply —> higher prices. @piie.com analysis here:
Trump’s deportation plans would cause lower US employment and GDP than otherwise
Former president Donald Trump has promised to carry out the "largest deportation program in American history," a step targeting unauthorized immigrants and endorsed in the Republican Party's 2024 plat...
www.piie.com

Reposted by Tomasz Mickiewicz

Italy's exports to well-known transshipment hubs like Kyrgyzstan (lhs) and Armenia (rhs) are going through the roof. This is happening more than 3 years after the invasion of Ukraine. You can do this kind of thing, but it makes the EU ineffective as a geopolitical actor. You can't have it both ways.

Reposted by Tomasz Mickiewicz

NYT: “.. The Trump Organization is in talks that could bring a Trump-branded property to one of Saudi Arabia’s largest government-owned real estate developments .. the latest example of Mr. Trump blending governance and family business ..”

@nytimes.com
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/15/w...

Prof. Rodriguez-Pose asks to which extent size of cities matters, at Regional Studies Associaton conference. Bigger needs not to be better, and density may destroy social capital (and more lessons)

German industry once the economic powerhouse of Europe is now being hit from multiple directions. The latest assault comes from US bend to hit its closest allies on.ft.com/4p5sjvP
Can anything halt the decline of German industry?
Europe’s manufacturing champion is in free fall. Economists are suggesting radical steps to save what is left
on.ft.com