Tomasz Mickiewicz
@tomekmickiewicz.bsky.social
Professor of economics @ Aston University (Birmingham, UK), editor of Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, fellow of Regional Studies Association.
Once a member of Movement for Defence of Human and Civil Rights, opposing Soviet regime in Poland.
Once a member of Movement for Defence of Human and Civil Rights, opposing Soviet regime in Poland.
The Economic Impact of Brexit on GDP seems to be - 6% to - 8% till 2025. Impact on investment is even larger. share.google/30UFNyXkw2M5...
The Economic Impact of Brexit
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
share.google
November 11, 2025 at 10:44 PM
The Economic Impact of Brexit on GDP seems to be - 6% to - 8% till 2025. Impact on investment is even larger. share.google/30UFNyXkw2M5...
"Campaigns aimed at anti-elite candidates can unintentionally mobilize support for them" www.nber.org/papers/w3443...
Political Information and Network Effects
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
www.nber.org
November 4, 2025 at 4:43 PM
"Campaigns aimed at anti-elite candidates can unintentionally mobilize support for them" www.nber.org/papers/w3443...
There is a point for a country, when self-inflicted decline in soft power translates into decline in hard power. The latter depends on how many close allies a country has.
US passport lost significantly in terms of its value measured by visa free entry worldwide.
www.economist.com/graphic-deta...
US passport lost significantly in terms of its value measured by visa free entry worldwide.
www.economist.com/graphic-deta...
The world’s most—and least—powerful passports
Americans’ travel documents aren’t as muscular as they used to be
www.economist.com
November 3, 2025 at 4:04 PM
There is a point for a country, when self-inflicted decline in soft power translates into decline in hard power. The latter depends on how many close allies a country has.
US passport lost significantly in terms of its value measured by visa free entry worldwide.
www.economist.com/graphic-deta...
US passport lost significantly in terms of its value measured by visa free entry worldwide.
www.economist.com/graphic-deta...
Reposted by Tomasz Mickiewicz
Germany plans €377B in defense procurements as Kremlin bot network spreads fake story about Chancellor Merz’s wife buying Rheinmetall shares
A new disinfo campaign flagged by @antibot4navalny.bsky.social is spreading videos posing as @bellingcat.com, The Telegraph, and German tabloid Bild.
A new disinfo campaign flagged by @antibot4navalny.bsky.social is spreading videos posing as @bellingcat.com, The Telegraph, and German tabloid Bild.
Germany plans €377B in defense procurements as Kremlin bot network spreads fake story about Chancellor Merz’s wife buying Rheinmetall shares
Germany has drawn up plans to procure land, air, naval, space, and cyber weapons worth €377 billion, according to an internal government document reviewed by Politico. The outlays are set to be includ...
theins.press
October 30, 2025 at 7:22 PM
Germany plans €377B in defense procurements as Kremlin bot network spreads fake story about Chancellor Merz’s wife buying Rheinmetall shares
A new disinfo campaign flagged by @antibot4navalny.bsky.social is spreading videos posing as @bellingcat.com, The Telegraph, and German tabloid Bild.
A new disinfo campaign flagged by @antibot4navalny.bsky.social is spreading videos posing as @bellingcat.com, The Telegraph, and German tabloid Bild.
"Mr Putin’s initial war boom has now given way to stagflation, with growth at almost zero, labour shortages, hidden bad debts, inflation of 8% and interest rates of 16.5%. Another half-decade of this would probably trigger an economic and banking crisis in Russia." www.economist.com/leaders/2025...
Why funding Ukraine is a giant opportunity for Europe
The bill will be huge. It is also a historic bargain
www.economist.com
October 31, 2025 at 9:59 AM
"Mr Putin’s initial war boom has now given way to stagflation, with growth at almost zero, labour shortages, hidden bad debts, inflation of 8% and interest rates of 16.5%. Another half-decade of this would probably trigger an economic and banking crisis in Russia." www.economist.com/leaders/2025...
Reposted by Tomasz Mickiewicz
Russia: Lukoil is now down 20% and Rosneft 13% over the rolling 5 day period.
October 28, 2025 at 4:53 AM
Russia: Lukoil is now down 20% and Rosneft 13% over the rolling 5 day period.
"Without the Musk partisan effect, Tesla sales between October 2022 and April 2025 would have been 67-83% higher, equivalent to 1-1.26 million more vehicles. Musk’s partisan activities also increased the sales of other automakers' electric and hybrid vehicles 17-22%" www.nber.org/papers/w3441...
The Musk Partisan Effect on Tesla Sales
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
www.nber.org
October 27, 2025 at 1:40 PM
"Without the Musk partisan effect, Tesla sales between October 2022 and April 2025 would have been 67-83% higher, equivalent to 1-1.26 million more vehicles. Musk’s partisan activities also increased the sales of other automakers' electric and hybrid vehicles 17-22%" www.nber.org/papers/w3441...
Reposted by Tomasz Mickiewicz
US goods prices are reaccelerating amidst the trade war—goods inflation is at the highest level in more than two years, with prices for all goods rising 1.9% over the last year & prices for durables rising 1.8%
October 24, 2025 at 12:41 PM
US goods prices are reaccelerating amidst the trade war—goods inflation is at the highest level in more than two years, with prices for all goods rising 1.9% over the last year & prices for durables rising 1.8%
Reposted by Tomasz Mickiewicz
The last time America hit 12% credit card delinquency rate, the country was deep in the middle of a major financial crisis that threatened to unravel the entire banking system
October 21, 2025 at 9:55 AM
The last time America hit 12% credit card delinquency rate, the country was deep in the middle of a major financial crisis that threatened to unravel the entire banking system
Reposted by Tomasz Mickiewicz
New w/ @bencasselman.bsky.social: Wealthy Americans, buoyed by a booming stock market, are spending freely. Lower-income households, stung by inflation and a slowing labor market, are pulling back
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/19/b... @nytimes.com
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/19/b... @nytimes.com
October 20, 2025 at 2:50 PM
New w/ @bencasselman.bsky.social: Wealthy Americans, buoyed by a booming stock market, are spending freely. Lower-income households, stung by inflation and a slowing labor market, are pulling back
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/19/b... @nytimes.com
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/19/b... @nytimes.com
Reposted by Tomasz Mickiewicz
A record $50-billion payment from Russia to shareholders of dismantled oil giant Yukos remains in force after the Dutch Supreme Court on Friday quashed a Russian appeal, ending a long-running legal saga.
Dutch Supreme Court Upholds $50Bln Payment in Yukos Case - The Moscow Times
A record $50-billion payment from Russia to shareholders of dismantled oil giant Yukos remains in force after the Dutch Supreme Court on Friday quashed a Russian appeal, ending a long-running legal sa...
www.themoscowtimes.com
October 17, 2025 at 10:23 AM
A record $50-billion payment from Russia to shareholders of dismantled oil giant Yukos remains in force after the Dutch Supreme Court on Friday quashed a Russian appeal, ending a long-running legal saga.
Both Italy and US are not on the sustainable fiscal paths, but that data shows that US is actually in worse shape than Italy, when the fiscal gap is properly measured... www.nber.org/papers/w3434...
Measuring What Matters: Why Italy May Be in Better Fiscal Shape than the US
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
www.nber.org
October 13, 2025 at 11:45 AM
Both Italy and US are not on the sustainable fiscal paths, but that data shows that US is actually in worse shape than Italy, when the fiscal gap is properly measured... www.nber.org/papers/w3434...
Welcome to Europe. There is space here for best development economists around.
I am delighted to share that Nobel laureates Esther Duflo and Abhijit Banerjee will join our Department of Economics @econ.uzh.ch at the University of Zurich on July 1, 2026, as Lemann Foundation Professors of Economics.
🧵 1/7
🧵 1/7
October 10, 2025 at 7:51 PM
Welcome to Europe. There is space here for best development economists around.
There is no single market in Europe. But it can be created and that would help. on.ft.com/3WuJjiR via @FT
Europe’s greatest asset is Europe — let’s use it
There are immediate steps that we can take to consolidate our single market
on.ft.com
October 9, 2025 at 7:11 PM
There is no single market in Europe. But it can be created and that would help. on.ft.com/3WuJjiR via @FT
Reposted by Tomasz Mickiewicz
“By infecting AI models, Russia is rewriting history for everyone around the world in real time,” writes NewsGuard co-CEO Gordon Crovitz in his Reality Check Commentary.
Read it here:
www.newsguardrealitycheck.com/p/ai-models-...
Read it here:
www.newsguardrealitycheck.com/p/ai-models-...
AI Models Need to be Disinfected — Or George Orwell’s “1984” Will Come True
Commentary by NewsGuard Co-CEO Gordon Crovitz
www.newsguardrealitycheck.com
October 9, 2025 at 6:49 PM
“By infecting AI models, Russia is rewriting history for everyone around the world in real time,” writes NewsGuard co-CEO Gordon Crovitz in his Reality Check Commentary.
Read it here:
www.newsguardrealitycheck.com/p/ai-models-...
Read it here:
www.newsguardrealitycheck.com/p/ai-models-...
Reposted by Tomasz Mickiewicz
“.. Lower population growth as the president presses ahead with mass deportations will knock between 0.5 and one percentage points off America’s GDP growth between mid-2025 and mid-2026, according to S&P Global Ratings.”
@telegraphnews.bsky.social
www.telegraph.co.uk/business/202...
@telegraphnews.bsky.social
www.telegraph.co.uk/business/202...
October 7, 2025 at 12:23 PM
“.. Lower population growth as the president presses ahead with mass deportations will knock between 0.5 and one percentage points off America’s GDP growth between mid-2025 and mid-2026, according to S&P Global Ratings.”
@telegraphnews.bsky.social
www.telegraph.co.uk/business/202...
@telegraphnews.bsky.social
www.telegraph.co.uk/business/202...
Reposted by Tomasz Mickiewicz
"Russia’s oil refineries are a bit like a man who is being repeatedly punched. He will not die from one punch, or even half a dozen punches. But it becomes harder and harder for him to recover after each subsequent blow."
carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...
carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...
Have Ukrainian Drones Really Knocked Out 38% of Russia’s Oil Refining Capacity?
Kyiv’s unprecedented strike campaign on Russian oil refineries has inflicted serious—but likely not critical—damage on the country’s ability to produce fuel.
carnegieendowment.org
October 7, 2025 at 10:29 AM
"Russia’s oil refineries are a bit like a man who is being repeatedly punched. He will not die from one punch, or even half a dozen punches. But it becomes harder and harder for him to recover after each subsequent blow."
carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...
carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...
Inflation down in Euro area (2.0% compared to 2.2% year ago), and the same as year ago in the EU (2.4%). ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/...
Annual inflation stable at 2.0% in the euro area
Overview The euro area annual inflation rate was 2.0% in August 2025, stable compared to July. A year earlier, the rate was 2.2%. European Union annual inflation was 2.4% in August 2025, stable compar...
ec.europa.eu
October 6, 2025 at 8:52 PM
Inflation down in Euro area (2.0% compared to 2.2% year ago), and the same as year ago in the EU (2.4%). ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/...
Broad tariffs downsides: "Efficiency losses would approach one-third of revenues raised, the tax system would be less progressive, and there would be serious tax administration concerns. ... Broad tariffs generate a large negative supply shock ..." www.nber.org/papers/w3419...
Tariffs as Fiscal Policy
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
www.nber.org
October 6, 2025 at 12:37 PM
Broad tariffs downsides: "Efficiency losses would approach one-third of revenues raised, the tax system would be less progressive, and there would be serious tax administration concerns. ... Broad tariffs generate a large negative supply shock ..." www.nber.org/papers/w3419...
Reposted by Tomasz Mickiewicz
NEW: Since the start of the Ukraine invasion, 17 out of 27 EU nations have spent more on Russian oil and gas than they’ve sent to Ukraine in aid!
Despite an oil embargo, Europe is still sending £1bn a month on Russian energy.
This week’s column:
www.thetimes.com/article/dd9d...
Despite an oil embargo, Europe is still sending £1bn a month on Russian energy.
This week’s column:
www.thetimes.com/article/dd9d...
September 28, 2025 at 10:47 AM
NEW: Since the start of the Ukraine invasion, 17 out of 27 EU nations have spent more on Russian oil and gas than they’ve sent to Ukraine in aid!
Despite an oil embargo, Europe is still sending £1bn a month on Russian energy.
This week’s column:
www.thetimes.com/article/dd9d...
Despite an oil embargo, Europe is still sending £1bn a month on Russian energy.
This week’s column:
www.thetimes.com/article/dd9d...
Reposted by Tomasz Mickiewicz
Russia: Fuel crisis is spreading rapidly and has now reached Lipetsk region, located north of Voronezh and south of Moscow.
September 26, 2025 at 8:47 PM
Russia: Fuel crisis is spreading rapidly and has now reached Lipetsk region, located north of Voronezh and south of Moscow.
Reposted by Tomasz Mickiewicz
The US is a major importer of Indian products made of Russian oil @npr.org
www.npr.org/2025/09/08/n...
www.npr.org/2025/09/08/n...
The U.S. is a major importer of Indian products made from Russian oil
The United States imports oil products from India's Reliance Industries refinery, which sources nearly half its oil from Russia.
www.npr.org
September 24, 2025 at 7:04 PM
The US is a major importer of Indian products made of Russian oil @npr.org
www.npr.org/2025/09/08/n...
www.npr.org/2025/09/08/n...
Reposted by Tomasz Mickiewicz
Quite significant downward revisions of #Russia GDP forecasts.
In 2025 from 2.5% to 1%
In 2026 from 2.4% to 1.3%
In 2025 from 2.5% to 1%
In 2026 from 2.4% to 1.3%
Russia's Ministry of Economic Development today significantly downgraded its forecast for the Russian economy.
● Kommersant, the business newspaper, published and immediately deleted the news item as it hadn't been made public. Source: @the_ins_ru
theins.ru/news/285214?
● Kommersant, the business newspaper, published and immediately deleted the news item as it hadn't been made public. Source: @the_ins_ru
theins.ru/news/285214?
The Bell: Минэкономразвития ухудшило прогноз по развитию российской экономики. «Коммерсантъ» опубликовал и сразу удалил новость об этом
24 сентября Минфин РФ внес в правительство поправки в закон о бюджете на 2025 год, проект федерального бюджета на 2026–2028 годы (предполагающий повышение НДС с 20 до 22%) и изменения в Бюджетный и На...
theins.ru
September 24, 2025 at 12:20 PM
Quite significant downward revisions of #Russia GDP forecasts.
In 2025 from 2.5% to 1%
In 2026 from 2.4% to 1.3%
In 2025 from 2.5% to 1%
In 2026 from 2.4% to 1.3%
Reposted by Tomasz Mickiewicz
Just sent out this piece. We are starting to get some decent data on the Ukrainian campaign against Russian refineries--seeing what they are attacking and when. It’s revealing about their strategy and points out how the campaign is poised to develop. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
An Update On The Ukrainian Campaign Against Russian Refineries
Hi All,
open.substack.com
September 23, 2025 at 6:11 AM
Just sent out this piece. We are starting to get some decent data on the Ukrainian campaign against Russian refineries--seeing what they are attacking and when. It’s revealing about their strategy and points out how the campaign is poised to develop. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
Reposted by Tomasz Mickiewicz
European governments voting with their money. Only 8% of new German defence procurement planned to go to US companies. Wise move.
Germany’s €80B rearmament plan sidelines US weapons
A procurement plan obtained by POLITICO shows Berlin’s rearmament spree will overwhelmingly benefit European industry.
www.politico.eu
September 23, 2025 at 7:16 AM
European governments voting with their money. Only 8% of new German defence procurement planned to go to US companies. Wise move.