Tyler T Reny
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tylerreny.bsky.social
Tyler T Reny
@tylerreny.bsky.social
2.6K followers 1.6K following 110 posts
Asst poli sci prof @ CGU. PhD UCLA. Comp soc sci, political psychology, REP, data viz. Mainer. #rstats #firstgen tylerreny.github.io
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tylerreny.bsky.social
Tyler T Reny @tylerreny.bsky.social · Aug 6
My coauthor on this project, Marcel, has a much more comprehensive thread on our new paper if you want to read through!
mfroman.bsky.social Marcel Roman @mfroman.bsky.social · Aug 6
🚨NEW PAPER 🚨 Are police more right-wing and biased against marginalized groups than the general public? If so, why? My new article in
@pnas.org w/ @tylerreny.bsky.social, Newman, and Sears provides some answers. 🧵1/n
Reposted by Tyler T Reny
upshot.nytimes.com
It takes a long time to get detailed precinct-level data for a presidential election. We're now at 99 percent complete.

www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
An Extremely Detailed Map of the 2024 Election (Gift Article)
See how your neighborhood voted on our interactive, precinct-level results map of the presidential election.
www.nytimes.com
November 17, 2025 at 9:51 PM
Reposted by Tyler T Reny
mfroman.bsky.social
Our @apsrjournal.bsky.social article is now in print! We develop a theory to explain why the public doesn't become more prosocial toward LGBTQ+ people after illegitimate anti-LGBTQ+ violence and provide causal, externally valid, evidence for the theory across 4 studies doi.org/10.1017/S000...
November 13, 2025 at 4:59 PM
Reposted by Tyler T Reny
kevintmorris.bsky.social
New today at Science Advances from @kshoub.bsky.social and me. We revisit the question of whether a local tragedy (mass shooting) influences voter behavior. They do, at least at the local level, with some important caveats and implications for policy. Short thread...
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
November 12, 2025 at 7:04 PM
Reposted by Tyler T Reny
jayvanbavel.bsky.social
Engagement-based #algorithms amplify intergroup hostility + moral-emotional content, leading it to be overrepresented in your feed

This leads us to falsely perceive that people want to see this kind of content and share more of it.

This technology fuels false polarization: osf.io/preprints/os...
November 4, 2025 at 7:33 PM
Reposted by Tyler T Reny
drewstommes.bsky.social
This is an excellent review article discussing open questions/challenges in causality and causal inference. arxiv.org/pdf/2508.17099
October 22, 2025 at 8:17 PM
Reposted by Tyler T Reny
corymccartan.com
A few weeks ago I shared a new WP on doing ecological inference—learning individual relationships from aggregate data, such as vote choice by race from precinct data.

Excited now to introduce `seine`, our open-source R package for doing EI easily and efficiently!

corymccartan.com/seine/
seine: Semiparametric Ecological Inference Ecological inference (EI) is the statistical problem of learning individual-level associations from aggregate-level data. Without certain identifying assumptions and proper estimation methods, researchers can easily draw incorrect conclusions from aggregate data, finding patterns where none exist, missing important individual-level patterns, or even concluding an effect runs in the opposite direction than it actually does. This is known as the ecological fallacy. The seine package allows researchers to perform modern ecological inference quickly, accurately, and transparently. Double/debiased machine learning allows for controlling for confounding covariates, which increases the plausibility of identifying assumptions. Machine learning can be used to estimate the key regression model and avoid strong parametric assumptions made by existing EI methods. Sensitivity analysis and benchmarking let researchers understand how violations of their assumptions will affect results. A tidy interface makes the package modular and easy to use, and works well with pipe-based workflows. Minimal dependencies and efficient estimation routines keep everything fast and lightweight.
October 21, 2025 at 3:31 PM
Reposted by Tyler T Reny
tylerreny.bsky.social
📢 New paper w @mfroman.bsky.social and Ben Newman: Why do some conservative White Americans support abortion? It's not gender or religion. They want to slow the growth of disliked out-groups. bit.ly/4mFYYXd
abstract of article
October 1, 2025 at 6:21 PM
tylerreny.bsky.social
📢 New paper w @mfroman.bsky.social and Ben Newman: Why do some conservative White Americans support abortion? It's not gender or religion. They want to slow the growth of disliked out-groups. bit.ly/4mFYYXd
abstract of article
October 1, 2025 at 6:21 PM
Reposted by Tyler T Reny
ejprjournal.bsky.social
🌅📙 64.3

#NostalgicDeprivation in Europe 🇪🇺

These authors (🧵⬇️) look at impact of #NostalgicDeprivation on support for #PopulistParties across both Eastern and Western Europe 🌍 linking populist attitudes and voting.

🔗 buff.ly/HuJNAqL
Nostalgic deprivation and populism: Evidence from 19 European countries
JEREMY FERWERDA, JUSTIN GEST, TYLER RENY
ow.ly
August 26, 2025 at 8:01 AM
tylerreny.bsky.social
My coauthor on this project, Marcel, has a much more comprehensive thread on our new paper if you want to read through!
mfroman.bsky.social Marcel Roman @mfroman.bsky.social · Aug 6
🚨NEW PAPER 🚨 Are police more right-wing and biased against marginalized groups than the general public? If so, why? My new article in
@pnas.org w/ @tylerreny.bsky.social, Newman, and Sears provides some answers. 🧵1/n
August 6, 2025 at 9:49 PM
Reposted by Tyler T Reny
mfroman.bsky.social
🚨NEW PAPER 🚨 Are police more right-wing and biased against marginalized groups than the general public? If so, why? My new article in
@pnas.org w/ @tylerreny.bsky.social, Newman, and Sears provides some answers. 🧵1/n
August 6, 2025 at 8:21 PM
tylerreny.bsky.social
New article out (w Marcel R, Ben N, and David S) in @pnas.org. We show that young folks who signal interest in becoming cops hold more conservative views on race, multiculturalism, gender, and sexuality, etc.than their peers intending careers in other fields www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
Late adolescents entering college intending a career as police officers hold more right-leaning views than their peers | PNAS
One longstanding explanation for bias and excessive force in policing is selection—the assertion that those who select to work in law enforcement a...
www.pnas.org
August 6, 2025 at 5:06 PM
Reposted by Tyler T Reny
mnolangray.bsky.social
The impossible has become possible: we've passed a clean CEQA infill exemption. This is probably the most important thing California has done on housing in the present YIMBY moment.
July 1, 2025 at 12:32 AM
Reposted by Tyler T Reny
jamellebouie.net
illegal war started by a man constitutionally ineligible to be president
June 22, 2025 at 12:34 AM
Reposted by Tyler T Reny
blmckean.bsky.social
i'm not at all qualified to evaluate this study but i am absolutely going to share it with my students, scared straight style
June 16, 2025 at 12:35 AM
tylerreny.bsky.social
Excited and honored to be chosen for an emerging scholar award from @apsa.bsky.social Elections, Public Opinion, and Voting Behavior (EPOVB) section this year!
June 6, 2025 at 10:59 PM
Reposted by Tyler T Reny
stano.bsky.social
If you haven't gotten around to it, please call your state Senator today and urge them to vote yes on SB 79. This could be transformative for California if it passes and should've been passed back in 2018 when it was first brought up. Don't let the segregationists keep you poor any longer.
mnolangray.bsky.social M. Nolan Gray 🥑 @mnolangray.bsky.social · Jun 2
It's do or die for SB 79, the bill that would legalize multifamily housing around rail and BRT stops across the state. The vote could be held as early as tomorrow morning.

Californians: call your state senator tomorrow morning to help us get out of the senate!
cayimby.org/legislation/...
SB 79 (Wiener): Transit-Oriented Development and Upzoning
SB 79 will make it faster and easier to build multi-family housing near transit stops, like train and rapid bus lines, by making it legal for more homes to be built in these areas and streamlining exi...
cayimby.org
June 2, 2025 at 8:39 PM
Reposted by Tyler T Reny
akoustov.bsky.social
I see a lot of confusion about what it means for Republicans to "own" immigration.

Does this mean increasing immigration salience helps Rs on average? Yes.

But does that mean anything Rs do on immigration is popular? Absolutely not.

Folks should remember: issue ownership can be lost.
April 18, 2025 at 8:34 PM
Reposted by Tyler T Reny
roxanadaneshjou.bsky.social
Stanford’s president and provost release a statement supporting Harvard. stanforddaily.com/2025/04/15/l...
Stanford president and provost back Harvard in funding fight
The president and provost said Harvard’s rejection of government demands was “rooted in the American tradition of liberty.”
stanforddaily.com
April 15, 2025 at 1:59 PM
Reposted by Tyler T Reny
atherton.bsky.social
every day I wake up and check the news and am madder about the Trump administration than I have ever been and then I have to meet the obligations of my daily life and them the next morning I wake up and check the news and am madder about the Trump administration than I have ever been and then I have
April 9, 2025 at 1:01 PM
Reposted by Tyler T Reny
owasow.bsky.social
@tylerreny.bsky.social & B. Newman find “Floyd protests swiftly decreased favorability toward police and increased perceived anti-Black discrimination among low-prejudice & politically liberal Americans” but barely among “high-prejudice & politically conservative…” www.benjnewman.com/uploads/1/2/...
Title: The Opinion-Mobilizing Effect of Social Protest against Police Violence: Evidence from the 2020 George Floyd Protests Published online by Cambridge University Press: 08 June 2021 By TYLER T. RENY and BENJAMIN J. NEWMAN Abstract Does social protest following the police killing of unarmed Black civilians have a widespread “opinion-mobilizing” effect against the police? Or, does the racialized nature of these events polarize mass opinion based on standing racial and political orientations? To answer these questions, we use a large dataset comprised of weekly cross sections of the American public and employ a regression discontinuity in time (RDiT) approach leveraging the random timing of the police killing of George Floyd and ensuing nationwide protests. We find that the Floyd protests swiftly decreased favorability toward the police and increased perceived anti-Black discrimination among low-prejudice and politically liberal Americans. However, attitudes among high-prejudice and politically conservative Americans either remained unchanged or evinced only small and ephemeral shifts. Our evidence suggests that the Floyd protests served to further racialize and politicize attitudes within the domain of race and law enforcement in the U.S. FIGURE 1. George Floyd Media Coverage, Social Media Posts, and Search Behavior. Shows trend lines in Newspaper mentions, Twitter mentions and Google Trends that spike around George Floyd protests and decline after about June 1 FIGURE 3. Coefficient and Predicted Value Plots for Prejudice and Partisanship In Figure 3, we plot both the coefficient and 95% confidence intervals for indicators of prejudice (rows 1 and 2) and partisanship (row 3), which allows us to assess both whether attitudes are becoming more racialized and partisan as well as esti- mate whether this polarization in attitudes is driven by movement solely among those lower in prejudice (or strong Democrats), those higher in prejudice (or strong Republicans), or both. We use two indicators of prejudice included in the NS survey: (1) a Black– White favorability differential, which subtracts Black from white favorability Likert scales, and (2) the “generations” item from the well-known racial resent- ment scale. For partisanship, we use the standard seven-point scale ranging from strong Democrat to strong Republican. See Appendix A for more informa- tion on these items. Beginning with the coefficient plots in column A, we find strong evidence of increased racialization and par- tisan polarization of attitudes. Pretreatment waves indi- cate that these attitudes were already polarized by racial and partisan orientations, though in all cases the coeffi- cients significantly increase following the eruption of the Floyd protests. In column B, we plot the probability of reporting a “very unfavorable” view of the police as a function of respondents’ prejudice and partisanship; these figures reveal that almost all of the movement in attitudes is among those lower in prejudice and among strong Democrats. These analyses suggest that the Floyd pro- tests facilitated attitude change primarily among those who were already sympathetic to the BLM movement and failed to exert a meaningful effect on attitudes among those higher in prejudice and political conserva- tives.
March 26, 2025 at 12:01 AM
Reposted by Tyler T Reny
mcuban.bsky.social
From 2010 to 2016 (latest data I have ), NIH research contributed to EVERY drug approved by the FDA
March 22, 2025 at 10:44 AM
Reposted by Tyler T Reny
joshtpm.bsky.social
To give a sense of how much money this is: according to CBO in 2023, non-defense discretionary spending was $917B. So the cost of running the entire federal govt, aside from SocSec, Medicare, Medicaid & defense was $917B. And in six weeks DOGE lit $500B on fire.
joshtpm.bsky.social Josh Marshall @joshtpm.bsky.social · Mar 22
So look at that. DOGE has cost the US Treasury fucking half a trillion dollars. HALF A TRILLION DOLLARS. This is your cost savings.
jacobbogage.bsky.social Jacob Bogage @jacobbogage.bsky.social · Mar 22
To review what we from @washingtonpost.com are reporting out of the IRS today:

- Projected tax revenue this year is down 10% ($500 billion) as Trump's downsizing is emboldening tax cheats

- IRS is nearing an agreement with ICE to assist on mass deportations
March 22, 2025 at 9:36 PM
Reposted by Tyler T Reny
jsweetli.bsky.social
NEW: Bari Weiss’s University of Austin, touted as a haven for free academic inquiry, has a dozen scholars and officials with ties to Hungary’s speech-suppressing regime.

www.thenation.com/article/soci...
How a Free-Speech University Sidles Up to Orbán’s Strongman Rule
Bari Weiss's University of Austin, touted as a haven for free academic inquiry, has a dozen scholars and officials with ties to Hungary's speech-suppressing regime
www.thenation.com
March 20, 2025 at 1:28 PM