Fourth Turning Capital 🔸
@turtle4th.bsky.social
🔸 10% Pledger
Reposted by Fourth Turning Capital 🔸
The US is losing blue-collar jobs for the first time since the pandemic—year-on-year job losses have hit 59k as manufacturing industries lose jobs at a rapid pace while growth in construction & transportation has nearly zeroed out
November 20, 2025 at 1:43 PM
The US is losing blue-collar jobs for the first time since the pandemic—year-on-year job losses have hit 59k as manufacturing industries lose jobs at a rapid pace while growth in construction & transportation has nearly zeroed out
Reposted by Fourth Turning Capital 🔸
US construction of factories & other manufacturing structures inched down to the lowest levels in nearly two years in official data released today
Construction is down roughly 8.6% over the last year as CHIPS Act projects complete and tariffs weigh on manufacturing investment
Construction is down roughly 8.6% over the last year as CHIPS Act projects complete and tariffs weigh on manufacturing investment
November 17, 2025 at 5:23 PM
US construction of factories & other manufacturing structures inched down to the lowest levels in nearly two years in official data released today
Construction is down roughly 8.6% over the last year as CHIPS Act projects complete and tariffs weigh on manufacturing investment
Construction is down roughly 8.6% over the last year as CHIPS Act projects complete and tariffs weigh on manufacturing investment
When the history of our era is written, Michael Pettis’s frameworks will loom large.
10/10
Economists insist that "free trade" benefits a country whether or not its trade partners engage in free trade, but that's only because they assume balanced trade. Few understand that the arithmetic of comparative advantage only works when exports are used to pay for imports.
Economists insist that "free trade" benefits a country whether or not its trade partners engage in free trade, but that's only because they assume balanced trade. Few understand that the arithmetic of comparative advantage only works when exports are used to pay for imports.
November 16, 2025 at 12:52 PM
When the history of our era is written, Michael Pettis’s frameworks will loom large.
Reposted by Fourth Turning Capital 🔸
This is so so disturbing. Trump is now pardoning January 6th rioters for unrelated crimes, just to reward them for their violence to keep him in power.
The Republican Party is in the full time business of endorsing and incentivizing political violence. So scary.
The Republican Party is in the full time business of endorsing and incentivizing political violence. So scary.
Trump re-pardons a Jan. 6 defendant to erase unrelated gun conviction
Trump re-pardons a Jan. 6 defendant to erase unrelated gun conviction
The new pardon ends a legal clash over the limits of Trump’s sweeping Day One clemency for those who stormed the Capitol.
dlvr.it
November 15, 2025 at 7:19 PM
This is so so disturbing. Trump is now pardoning January 6th rioters for unrelated crimes, just to reward them for their violence to keep him in power.
The Republican Party is in the full time business of endorsing and incentivizing political violence. So scary.
The Republican Party is in the full time business of endorsing and incentivizing political violence. So scary.
Making America 🇺🇸 Great Again?
‘Bankruptcy filings totaled 655 through the end of October and are on pace to reach a 15-year high this year, as they already near the full-year total of 687 recorded in 2024.’ www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
November 15, 2025 at 4:55 PM
Making America 🇺🇸 Great Again?
November 12, 2025 at 11:29 PM
Reposted by Fourth Turning Capital 🔸
NYC isn't the country...
But similar patterns in NJ/VA: Sherrill/Spanberger voters who didn't back Harris are younger, more diverse, less ideological, more focused on pocketbook issues than on Trump
Consistent w/ Trump rating drops among young people, POC, less politically engaged
More below
6/6
But similar patterns in NJ/VA: Sherrill/Spanberger voters who didn't back Harris are younger, more diverse, less ideological, more focused on pocketbook issues than on Trump
Consistent w/ Trump rating drops among young people, POC, less politically engaged
More below
6/6
The voters Mamdani added to the Democratic coalition in New York, a CBS News analysis
Zohran Mamdani's mayoral campaign turned out lots of voters who didn't back Kamala Harris last year — they are ethnically diverse, younger and less affluent.
www.cbsnews.com
November 12, 2025 at 1:07 AM
NYC isn't the country...
But similar patterns in NJ/VA: Sherrill/Spanberger voters who didn't back Harris are younger, more diverse, less ideological, more focused on pocketbook issues than on Trump
Consistent w/ Trump rating drops among young people, POC, less politically engaged
More below
6/6
But similar patterns in NJ/VA: Sherrill/Spanberger voters who didn't back Harris are younger, more diverse, less ideological, more focused on pocketbook issues than on Trump
Consistent w/ Trump rating drops among young people, POC, less politically engaged
More below
6/6
Reposted by Fourth Turning Capital 🔸
‘You Are All Terrorists’: Four Months in a Salvadoran Prison
www.nytimes.com
November 9, 2025 at 4:05 PM
Reposted by Fourth Turning Capital 🔸
Latino voters swung hard to Democrats this week, largely erasing GOP inroads in '24
Trump first Republican win presidential vote in Passaic, NJ (70% Latino) — on Tuesday, the city flipped back
Nearby Paterson and Prospect Park also saw big swings, giving Sherrill better margins than Biden '20
1/3
Trump first Republican win presidential vote in Passaic, NJ (70% Latino) — on Tuesday, the city flipped back
Nearby Paterson and Prospect Park also saw big swings, giving Sherrill better margins than Biden '20
1/3
November 8, 2025 at 12:49 AM
Latino voters swung hard to Democrats this week, largely erasing GOP inroads in '24
Trump first Republican win presidential vote in Passaic, NJ (70% Latino) — on Tuesday, the city flipped back
Nearby Paterson and Prospect Park also saw big swings, giving Sherrill better margins than Biden '20
1/3
Trump first Republican win presidential vote in Passaic, NJ (70% Latino) — on Tuesday, the city flipped back
Nearby Paterson and Prospect Park also saw big swings, giving Sherrill better margins than Biden '20
1/3
Reposted by Fourth Turning Capital 🔸
Latino voters swing toward Democrats in 2025 after Trump's 2024 historic gains.
(Nidia Cavazos, Fin Daniel Gómez and Kabir Khanna, CBS News)
www.cbsnews.com/news/latino-...
(Nidia Cavazos, Fin Daniel Gómez and Kabir Khanna, CBS News)
www.cbsnews.com/news/latino-...
November 8, 2025 at 1:18 AM
Latino voters swing toward Democrats in 2025 after Trump's 2024 historic gains.
(Nidia Cavazos, Fin Daniel Gómez and Kabir Khanna, CBS News)
www.cbsnews.com/news/latino-...
(Nidia Cavazos, Fin Daniel Gómez and Kabir Khanna, CBS News)
www.cbsnews.com/news/latino-...
Reposted by Fourth Turning Capital 🔸
WARN filings, which are a better gauge of upcoming layoffs, picked up @AugurInfinity @PantheonMacro
augurdigest.com/p/au...
augurdigest.com/p/au...
November 7, 2025 at 9:06 PM
WARN filings, which are a better gauge of upcoming layoffs, picked up @AugurInfinity @PantheonMacro
augurdigest.com/p/au...
augurdigest.com/p/au...
Reposted by Fourth Turning Capital 🔸
Voters across the country stood firm on Tuesday and resisted the president’s pressure campaign on behalf of his favored candidates. In today’s briefing, @raders.bsky.social explains why this may be a sign that the authoritarian project is faltering. https://protdem.org/47JTEwr
November 7, 2025 at 9:33 PM
Voters across the country stood firm on Tuesday and resisted the president’s pressure campaign on behalf of his favored candidates. In today’s briefing, @raders.bsky.social explains why this may be a sign that the authoritarian project is faltering. https://protdem.org/47JTEwr
Reposted by Fourth Turning Capital 🔸
PANTHEON: “.. The net percentage of households expecting the unemployment rate to rise over the next year leapt to +62% in November — the highest since 1980 ..
“.. historically consistent with a sharp rise in joblessness over the next few quarters.” 👀
“.. historically consistent with a sharp rise in joblessness over the next few quarters.” 👀
November 7, 2025 at 3:51 PM
PANTHEON: “.. The net percentage of households expecting the unemployment rate to rise over the next year leapt to +62% in November — the highest since 1980 ..
“.. historically consistent with a sharp rise in joblessness over the next few quarters.” 👀
“.. historically consistent with a sharp rise in joblessness over the next few quarters.” 👀
Reposted by Fourth Turning Capital 🔸
Two warnings for Republicans in the New Jersey governor results: Republican Jack Ciattarelli couldn’t hold onto Trump’s gains in heavily Hispanic and Asian American areas or his own past gains in wealthy suburbs.
(Steve Kornacki, NBC News)
More, via Opinion Today:
opiniontoday.substack.com/p/251106
(Steve Kornacki, NBC News)
More, via Opinion Today:
opiniontoday.substack.com/p/251106
November 7, 2025 at 12:17 AM
Two warnings for Republicans in the New Jersey governor results: Republican Jack Ciattarelli couldn’t hold onto Trump’s gains in heavily Hispanic and Asian American areas or his own past gains in wealthy suburbs.
(Steve Kornacki, NBC News)
More, via Opinion Today:
opiniontoday.substack.com/p/251106
(Steve Kornacki, NBC News)
More, via Opinion Today:
opiniontoday.substack.com/p/251106
November 6, 2025 at 10:23 AM
Reposted by Fourth Turning Capital 🔸
November 5, 2025 at 6:53 PM
Reposted by Fourth Turning Capital 🔸
CHIEF JUSTICE ROBERTS: The emergency authorization is “being used for a power to impose tariffs on any product from any country in any amount for any length of time.” That “seems to be a misfit.”
@wsj.com #IEEFA
www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
@wsj.com #IEEFA
www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
November 5, 2025 at 11:37 PM
CHIEF JUSTICE ROBERTS: The emergency authorization is “being used for a power to impose tariffs on any product from any country in any amount for any length of time.” That “seems to be a misfit.”
@wsj.com #IEEFA
www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
@wsj.com #IEEFA
www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
Reposted by Fourth Turning Capital 🔸
Las Vegas is crumbling 🚨 Excluding Covid, tourism has fallen to its lowest level since the peak of the Global Financial Crisis 👀
November 5, 2025 at 6:12 AM
Las Vegas is crumbling 🚨 Excluding Covid, tourism has fallen to its lowest level since the peak of the Global Financial Crisis 👀
Reposted by Fourth Turning Capital 🔸
Loundon County (95% in)
2020 President: D+25
2024 President: D+16
2025 Governor: D+28
VIA. State Navigate
HUGE margins for Dems and Spanberger here, this was one of the counties that shifted the most to Trump in VA
2020 President: D+25
2024 President: D+16
2025 Governor: D+28
VIA. State Navigate
HUGE margins for Dems and Spanberger here, this was one of the counties that shifted the most to Trump in VA
November 5, 2025 at 12:48 AM
Loundon County (95% in)
2020 President: D+25
2024 President: D+16
2025 Governor: D+28
VIA. State Navigate
HUGE margins for Dems and Spanberger here, this was one of the counties that shifted the most to Trump in VA
2020 President: D+25
2024 President: D+16
2025 Governor: D+28
VIA. State Navigate
HUGE margins for Dems and Spanberger here, this was one of the counties that shifted the most to Trump in VA
This is from Rasmussen reports, a highly Republican biased pollster.
November 1, 2025 at 5:25 PM
This is from Rasmussen reports, a highly Republican biased pollster.
Reposted by Fourth Turning Capital 🔸
This is amazing. And it’s truly the stuff of nightmares.
October 27, 2025 at 11:08 AM
This is amazing. And it’s truly the stuff of nightmares.
@politicsgirl.bsky.social @maddow.msnbc.com They’re talking *now* about coming up with a Republican health care plan? Why did they wait until past the last minute? Is that responsible governance?
Ron Johnson: "Let's bring free market competition back into the healthcare industry. Let's bring back way more consumer choice. Rick Scott, an expert in healthcare, he's working with people like myself and the White House, let's design the Republican plan."
October 27, 2025 at 10:00 PM
@politicsgirl.bsky.social @maddow.msnbc.com They’re talking *now* about coming up with a Republican health care plan? Why did they wait until past the last minute? Is that responsible governance?
Reposted by Fourth Turning Capital 🔸
Know thy context. Add price/time symmetry to the list of indicators characterizing a mature secular regime. H/t @TimmerFidelity
October 23, 2025 at 3:25 PM
Know thy context. Add price/time symmetry to the list of indicators characterizing a mature secular regime. H/t @TimmerFidelity