Joe Brusuelas
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joebrusuelas.bsky.social
Joe Brusuelas
@joebrusuelas.bsky.social
2.2K followers 990 following 1K posts
Chief Economist RSM. Board of advisors UCLA Anderson School Economic Forecast. Member Wall Street Journal forecast board. Named 2023 best interest rate forecaster by Bloomberg. Dodgers fan
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Reposted by Joe Brusuelas
carlquintanilla.bsky.social
Because of gov’t borrowing & hyperscaler demand for “increasingly spare capital, .. there is little to suggest that mortgage rates will move lower next year .. absent a near-term recession or an unexpected re-entry of the Federal Reserve into” the MBS market.

@joebrusuelas.bsky.social
November 14, 2025 at 11:23 AM
joebrusuelas.bsky.social
“Wai qiang, zhoung gan” which roughly translates as “outwardly strong inwardly brittle.” It’s a good description of the Chinese economy as it proceeds through a debt & deleveraging crisis. #Econ #Econsky

www.nytimes.com/2025/11/13/o... via @NYTOpinion
Opinion | China Looks Strong. Life Here Tells a Different Story.
www.nytimes.com
November 13, 2025 at 7:43 PM
joebrusuelas.bsky.social
There will be no estimate of the unemployment rate for October.

We estimated an increase to 4.7% due to the government shutdown.

Thank you for your attention to this matter.
November 13, 2025 at 3:06 PM
joebrusuelas.bsky.social
The cost of the US government shutdown will result in a 1.5% drag on Q4 GDP. And there’s a chance we get to do this all over again in January 2026. #Econ #EconSky

Source: The Real Economy Blog

realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...
Market Minute: All I got from the crummy government shutdown is a 1.5% drag on GDP
Dislocation around government paychecks, SNAP payments and the permanent loss of income by government contractors over the past six weeks will take a number of weeks to unwind.
realeconomy.rsmus.com
November 13, 2025 at 12:55 PM
joebrusuelas.bsky.social
Interesting aspect of no October official economic data is that it makes it less likely the Fed will cut rates amidst a fog of uncertainty faced by central bankers. #Econ #EconSky
November 12, 2025 at 7:03 PM
joebrusuelas.bsky.social
White House says the October CPI & Jobs data will not be released.

A full accounting of jobs, inflation, income, spending & industrial production data for both the October & November economic periods is in the interest of the public, policymakers & investors. #Econ #EconSky
November 12, 2025 at 6:54 PM
joebrusuelas.bsky.social
Good morning. Due to the government shutdown the Fed will be making its December policy decision with insufficient information. That tends to suggest a prudent pause is in order given rising inflation. #Econ #EconSky

Source: The Real Economy Blog

realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...
Market Minute: Cloudy with a chance of a December pause at the Fed
Inflation is likely to rise faster than the Fed’s 2% target with risk of moving higher as the strong fiscal impulse that will hit the economy next year bolsters growth prospects.
realeconomy.rsmus.com
November 12, 2025 at 1:04 PM
joebrusuelas.bsky.social
I’ve made the case that the end of labor hoarding that has characterized the American jobs market over the past few years is upon us. Thus unemployment is resetting higher to more sustainable levels. My thoughts via ⁦‪@FortuneMagazine‬⁩

fortune.com/2025/11/11/w...
Welcome to the era of 'low-hire, more-fire,' warns top economist—the days of talent hoarding are over | Fortune
"As the focus among businesses now turns to efficiencies and increasing productivity, we expect layoffs to increase, causing unemployment to rise."
fortune.com
November 11, 2025 at 3:40 PM
joebrusuelas.bsky.social
Good morning. My discussion via ⁦‪@CNBC‬⁩ on financial markets & the K-shaped economy. #Econ #EconSky

www.cnbc.com/amp/2025/11/...
Stock investors are buoying the economy. A labor market breakdown could end that
Government labor data could paint a darker economic picture, leading to a market slide that would throw cold water on the outlook of those who are well off.
www.cnbc.com
November 11, 2025 at 2:50 PM
joebrusuelas.bsky.social
My thoughts on the K-shaped economy that Trump now owns via Bloomberg News and why the public doesn’t like it. #Econ #EconSky

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
It’s Trump’s Economy Now and Americans Don’t Seem to Love It
President Donald Trump has been back in office long enough for Americans to expect at least glimmers of the economic golden age he promised. Instead, warning signals are flashing.
www.bloomberg.com
November 10, 2025 at 6:00 PM
joebrusuelas.bsky.social
Terrific note via ⁦‪@business‬⁩ on the debt & deflationary trap the Chinese economy is now caught. It’s an accessible article for those that are not economists or capital markets professionals that is worth a read. #Econ #EconSky

www.bloomberg.com/graphics/202...
China’s Deflationary Spiral Hurts Economy Harder Than Official Numbers Suggest
Bloomberg analysis shows deflation on the ground feels more pronounced than official data show, with prices of everyday goods plunging and the share of loss-making companies at a 25-year high.
www.bloomberg.com
November 10, 2025 at 2:29 PM
joebrusuelas.bsky.social
Good morning. Policy uncertainty is weighing heavy on long term interest rates and estimates for the year ahead. #Econ #EconSky

Source: The Real Economy Blog

realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...
Market Minute: Long-term interest rates and policy uncertainty
Economists’ are forecasting muted long-term interest rates by the end of next year, even as expansionary fiscal policies kick in.
realeconomy.rsmus.com
November 10, 2025 at 12:57 PM
Reposted by Joe Brusuelas
carlquintanilla.bsky.social
BRUSUELAS: “.. The hope that June marked the bottom of the labor market is now in serious doubt.”

@joebrusuelas.bsky.social
November 7, 2025 at 1:44 PM
joebrusuelas.bsky.social
Good morning. Alternative labor market data suggest further deterioration. What we’ve learned over the past two months about the American labor market. #Econ #EconSky

Source: The Real Economy Blog

realeconomy.rsmus.com/falling-dema...
Falling demand suggests further labor market deterioration
Fresh data from ADP, Revelio Labs and Challenger, Gray & Christmas all point to the prospect that weakness in labor demand is becoming entrenched and is not temporary.
realeconomy.rsmus.com
November 7, 2025 at 12:34 PM
joebrusuelas.bsky.social
Good morning. In an era where low rates, liquidity & leverage rules it’s little surprise we have K-shaped loan market. #Econ #EconSky

Source: The Real Economy Blog

realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...
Market Minute: The K-shaped loan market
Loan growth over the past year illustrates a large divergence in loan provisions to traditional borrowers versus non-depository financial institutions.
realeconomy.rsmus.com
November 6, 2025 at 12:13 PM
joebrusuelas.bsky.social
US ISM Service Sector prices paid hit three year high. Demand for services across the economy-especially from upper end households is driving service-based inflation. #Econ #EconSky
November 5, 2025 at 3:17 PM
joebrusuelas.bsky.social
Affordability: lots of talk on this idea today. Sometimes it’s better to keep it simple.

Affordability means more supply not less. Whether it be housing or energy a steady growth in supply and diversification of resources is the way. #Econ #EconSky
November 5, 2025 at 2:39 PM
joebrusuelas.bsky.social
My thoughts on a slowing economy & the blame game in DC via the New York Times: Trump Aides Raise Recession Fears, and Point Fingers at the Fed. #Econ #EconSky

www.nytimes.com/2025/11/04/u...
Trump Aides Raise Recession Fears, and Point Fingers at the Fed
www.nytimes.com
November 5, 2025 at 2:12 PM
joebrusuelas.bsky.social
ADP Private Employment Survey: Affirms Modest Labor Market Growth

Labor market growth continues to point to just enough job growth to keep labor market conditions stable-50,000 jobs per month is all that is needed given demographic changes and the constraint caused by immigration policy-yet.
November 5, 2025 at 1:35 PM
joebrusuelas.bsky.social
US ADP private sector employment estimate shows a 42K gain with service providing firms adding 33K and goods producing firms added 10K. However, small firms cut 10K-the third straight month of losses, medium sized firms cut 21K from its workforce & large firms added 73K on the month. #Econ #EconSky
November 5, 2025 at 1:21 PM
joebrusuelas.bsky.social
Good morning. Global shipping costs decline as Chinese shipments to the US dropped off in October. #Econ #EconSky

Source: The Real Economy Blog

realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...
Market Minute: World shipping costs continue to drop
The number of container ships sailing from China to the United States dropped considerably in October, pushing down costs.
realeconomy.rsmus.com
November 4, 2025 at 11:55 AM
joebrusuelas.bsky.social
Good morning. My thoughts on the end of large corporations hoarding of labor-Why Companies Are No Longer Hanging On to Employees. #Econ #EconSky

www.wsj.com/economy/jobs...
Why Companies Are No Longer Hanging On to Employees
The practice of ‘labor hoarding’—holding on to employees for fear of not being able to get them back later—has reached its end.
www.wsj.com
November 3, 2025 at 1:36 PM
joebrusuelas.bsky.social
Winning takes talent. To repeat demands character.

www.nytimes.com/athletic/677...
In Game 7, Dodgers, Blue Jays deliver fitting finale to World Series that had ‘everything’
Digesting the moments, memories and history lessons from a Game 7 — and World Series — that kept us riveted from start to finish.
www.nytimes.com
November 2, 2025 at 5:47 PM
joebrusuelas.bsky.social
Good morning. I’m spending today in the data obsessing over the sequencing of the ⁦‪@Dodgers‬⁩ pitching tonight in the same manner normally reserved for American monetary policy; How the ‘Ohtani Rule’ Could Decide Game 7 of the World Series

www.wsj.com/sports/baseb...
How the ‘Ohtani Rule’ Could Decide Game 7 of the World Series
Shohei Ohtani’s two-way brilliance prompted MLB to tweak its rulebook. That change could now determine how the Dodgers use the best player in the world in the biggest game of his life.
www.wsj.com
November 1, 2025 at 5:12 PM
joebrusuelas.bsky.social
Two best words in the sports lexicon: Game 7

Go @Dodgers!!
November 1, 2025 at 3:17 AM