Tim Kaiser
@tkaiser.science
I am a psychologist working at the intersection of psychotherapy research and quantitative methods. Currently working on causal learning and attribution methods at @fupsych.bsky.social - views are my own.
More: https://linktr.ee/tkaiser_science
More: https://linktr.ee/tkaiser_science
It’s nice to see radical behaviorism and psychodynamics - both massively underrepresented in many psychology programs btw - agree on core assumptions about personality functioning. This preprint by @kimberlyjgilbert.bsky.social argues for the psychodynamic framework.
osf.io/rg3zn/overview
osf.io/rg3zn/overview
December 28, 2025 at 8:50 PM
It’s nice to see radical behaviorism and psychodynamics - both massively underrepresented in many psychology programs btw - agree on core assumptions about personality functioning. This preprint by @kimberlyjgilbert.bsky.social argues for the psychodynamic framework.
osf.io/rg3zn/overview
osf.io/rg3zn/overview
Seems like a good time to remind my fellow Europeans that there are alternatives to US oligarch technology
european-alternatives.eu
european-alternatives.eu
European Alternatives
We help you find European alternatives for digital service and products, like cloud services and SaaS products.
european-alternatives.eu
December 28, 2025 at 4:16 PM
Reposted by Tim Kaiser
Kritik instrumenteller Vereinnahmung von Erinnerungskultur kam immer aus der Erinnerungsarbeit selbst. Sie muss ihr nicht angetragen werden, es war von Anfang an eine Selbstkritik. Nicht als Gegenargument, sondern um den kritischen Stachel konkreter Aufarbeitung der Vergangenheit zu wahren. 1/n
December 26, 2025 at 10:23 AM
Kritik instrumenteller Vereinnahmung von Erinnerungskultur kam immer aus der Erinnerungsarbeit selbst. Sie muss ihr nicht angetragen werden, es war von Anfang an eine Selbstkritik. Nicht als Gegenargument, sondern um den kritischen Stachel konkreter Aufarbeitung der Vergangenheit zu wahren. 1/n
Reposted by Tim Kaiser
Step 1: GenAI coding contains almost twice as many errors as human coding.
Step 2: Satya Nadella says as much as 30% of Microsoft code is written by AI.
Step 3: Windows 11 is a sluggish, buggy mess.
Step 2: Satya Nadella says as much as 30% of Microsoft code is written by AI.
Step 3: Windows 11 is a sluggish, buggy mess.
AI-generated code contains more bugs and errors than human output
AI-generated code produces 1.7x more issues than human code
www.techradar.com
December 23, 2025 at 4:58 PM
Step 1: GenAI coding contains almost twice as many errors as human coding.
Step 2: Satya Nadella says as much as 30% of Microsoft code is written by AI.
Step 3: Windows 11 is a sluggish, buggy mess.
Step 2: Satya Nadella says as much as 30% of Microsoft code is written by AI.
Step 3: Windows 11 is a sluggish, buggy mess.
Managed to get one of these for the older kid as a Christmas present. Even a PS5 could never match a finger box.
December 24, 2025 at 5:07 PM
Managed to get one of these for the older kid as a Christmas present. Even a PS5 could never match a finger box.
So Annas Archive downloaded Spotify
Backing up Spotify
We backed up Spotify (metadata and music files). It’s distributed in bulk torrents (~300TB). It’s the world’s first “preservation archive” for music which is fully open (meaning it can easily be mirro...
annas-archive.li
December 22, 2025 at 9:40 AM
So Annas Archive downloaded Spotify
Reposted by Tim Kaiser
Impostor syndrome is not a permanent flaw, new research suggests—instead, impostor thoughts are temporary signals of growth:
buff.ly/4B6nInH
buff.ly/4B6nInH
December 22, 2025 at 6:53 AM
Impostor syndrome is not a permanent flaw, new research suggests—instead, impostor thoughts are temporary signals of growth:
buff.ly/4B6nInH
buff.ly/4B6nInH
me IRL auf dem Weihnachtsmarkt
Ich kam ich sah ich ging wieder
December 21, 2025 at 2:53 PM
me IRL auf dem Weihnachtsmarkt
The number 1 movie when you were ten years old will define your 2026
December 19, 2025 at 7:32 PM
The number 1 movie when you were ten years old will define your 2026
Reposted by Tim Kaiser
1/ Our paper years in the making is finally out!
TL;DR even very strong effects (d=1.00) can be attenuated by sampling from populations where there is variability in their likelihood of natural improvement (e.g., mild depression cases remitting on their own)
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
TL;DR even very strong effects (d=1.00) can be attenuated by sampling from populations where there is variability in their likelihood of natural improvement (e.g., mild depression cases remitting on their own)
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Effects of patient response pattern distributions on comparisons of psychosocial treatments for major depressive disorder
The pharmaceutical industry has paid more attention to potential variability in depressed patients' ability to benefit from antidepressants vs. placeb…
www.sciencedirect.com
December 18, 2025 at 3:30 PM
1/ Our paper years in the making is finally out!
TL;DR even very strong effects (d=1.00) can be attenuated by sampling from populations where there is variability in their likelihood of natural improvement (e.g., mild depression cases remitting on their own)
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
TL;DR even very strong effects (d=1.00) can be attenuated by sampling from populations where there is variability in their likelihood of natural improvement (e.g., mild depression cases remitting on their own)
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Reposted by Tim Kaiser
Felt compelled this morning to write a 600-word defense of human writing, to argue against the use of 'ai' to structure & expand feedback on our students' work.
Yes, it has come to this: Academics need to make arguments for we should still be writing & thinking. #ai
docs.google.com/document/d/1...
Yes, it has come to this: Academics need to make arguments for we should still be writing & thinking. #ai
docs.google.com/document/d/1...
Should academics use 'AI' to assist in writing feedback on students' work?
Should academics use ‘AI’ to assist in writing feedback on students’ work? I felt compelled to write this in response to an email discussion at work on whether or how to use ‘ai’ (large language mode...
docs.google.com
December 17, 2025 at 10:14 AM
Felt compelled this morning to write a 600-word defense of human writing, to argue against the use of 'ai' to structure & expand feedback on our students' work.
Yes, it has come to this: Academics need to make arguments for we should still be writing & thinking. #ai
docs.google.com/document/d/1...
Yes, it has come to this: Academics need to make arguments for we should still be writing & thinking. #ai
docs.google.com/document/d/1...
Reposted by Tim Kaiser
Who Is: Vinay Prasad
A thread about how the FDA’s head of biologics became its biggest internal threat. Vinay Prasad, director of the Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research, is known not for effective leadership, but for quietly dismantling the scientific systems he was chosen to protect.
A thread about how the FDA’s head of biologics became its biggest internal threat. Vinay Prasad, director of the Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research, is known not for effective leadership, but for quietly dismantling the scientific systems he was chosen to protect.
December 16, 2025 at 12:50 AM
Who Is: Vinay Prasad
A thread about how the FDA’s head of biologics became its biggest internal threat. Vinay Prasad, director of the Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research, is known not for effective leadership, but for quietly dismantling the scientific systems he was chosen to protect.
A thread about how the FDA’s head of biologics became its biggest internal threat. Vinay Prasad, director of the Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research, is known not for effective leadership, but for quietly dismantling the scientific systems he was chosen to protect.
Reposted by Tim Kaiser
NEW PAPER: A decomposition of Fisher’s information to inform sample size for developing or updating fair and precise clinical prediction models - part 2: time-to-event outcomes
* Implemented via pmstabilityss module, facilitates models with precise & fair individual-level predictions
rdcu.be/eUVam
* Implemented via pmstabilityss module, facilitates models with precise & fair individual-level predictions
rdcu.be/eUVam
A decomposition of Fisher’s information to inform sample size for developing or updating fair and precise clinical prediction models — part 2: time-to-event outcomes
rdcu.be
December 17, 2025 at 8:08 AM
NEW PAPER: A decomposition of Fisher’s information to inform sample size for developing or updating fair and precise clinical prediction models - part 2: time-to-event outcomes
* Implemented via pmstabilityss module, facilitates models with precise & fair individual-level predictions
rdcu.be/eUVam
* Implemented via pmstabilityss module, facilitates models with precise & fair individual-level predictions
rdcu.be/eUVam
Reposted by Tim Kaiser
This book has contributed to so much online misinformation. In our study, we've documented now that there's a belief that CBT is HARMFUL or ineffective for trauma :S You know, the literal opposite of what seems to be true. Often propagated by "somatic" therapists www.jmir.org/2023/1/e45571/
November 27, 2025 at 6:39 PM
This book has contributed to so much online misinformation. In our study, we've documented now that there's a belief that CBT is HARMFUL or ineffective for trauma :S You know, the literal opposite of what seems to be true. Often propagated by "somatic" therapists www.jmir.org/2023/1/e45571/
Reposted by Tim Kaiser
Zusätzlich zum SCID-5-CV Workshop bieten @maxganslmeier.bsky.social und ich auch einen SCID-5-AMPD Workshop an - für alle die sich mit dem neuen Konzept der Persönlichkeitsstörung im DSM-5 AMPD/ICD-11 fundiert auseinandersetzen und mehr Sicherheit in der Diagnostik erlangen möchten.
December 16, 2025 at 11:16 AM
Zusätzlich zum SCID-5-CV Workshop bieten @maxganslmeier.bsky.social und ich auch einen SCID-5-AMPD Workshop an - für alle die sich mit dem neuen Konzept der Persönlichkeitsstörung im DSM-5 AMPD/ICD-11 fundiert auseinandersetzen und mehr Sicherheit in der Diagnostik erlangen möchten.
If you want to read something beautiful over the holidays www.stelliform.press/index.php/pr...
Or listen: libro.fm/audiobooks/9...
Or listen: libro.fm/audiobooks/9...
December 16, 2025 at 10:18 AM
If you want to read something beautiful over the holidays www.stelliform.press/index.php/pr...
Or listen: libro.fm/audiobooks/9...
Or listen: libro.fm/audiobooks/9...
Reposted by Tim Kaiser
Our new paper "Inconsistent outcome measurement in depression psychotherapy trials: A systematic historical and meta-analytic review over the past 50 years" led by @antoniasprenger.bsky.social is out now in JAD.
🧪 #PsychSciSky
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
🧪 #PsychSciSky
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
December 11, 2025 at 12:06 AM
Our new paper "Inconsistent outcome measurement in depression psychotherapy trials: A systematic historical and meta-analytic review over the past 50 years" led by @antoniasprenger.bsky.social is out now in JAD.
🧪 #PsychSciSky
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
🧪 #PsychSciSky
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
The accuracy of sleep trackers varies strongly and the accuracies are never good enough to interpret the results as actual sleep duration…
OSF
doi.org
December 15, 2025 at 2:33 PM
The accuracy of sleep trackers varies strongly and the accuracies are never good enough to interpret the results as actual sleep duration…
Reposted by Tim Kaiser
"But, as we should all know by now, systems can persist in dysfunction indefinitely, and absurdity is not self-correcting."
Indeed. Doubling down on absurdity, hoping at some point we won't be able to ignore it, is hanging everything on an assumption that doesn't necessarily hold.
Indeed. Doubling down on absurdity, hoping at some point we won't be able to ignore it, is hanging everything on an assumption that doesn't necessarily hold.
this, from @kevinbaker.bsky.social, is a better analysis of the intersection between LLMs and academic science than 98% of what's out there.
Context Widows
or, of GPUs, LPUs, and Goal Displacement
artificialbureaucracy.substack.com
December 14, 2025 at 6:35 PM
"But, as we should all know by now, systems can persist in dysfunction indefinitely, and absurdity is not self-correcting."
Indeed. Doubling down on absurdity, hoping at some point we won't be able to ignore it, is hanging everything on an assumption that doesn't necessarily hold.
Indeed. Doubling down on absurdity, hoping at some point we won't be able to ignore it, is hanging everything on an assumption that doesn't necessarily hold.
> Prior to founding Herasight, Anomaly wrote extensively on the ethics of embryo selection, notably in a 2018 article titled “Defending eugenics”.
🆗🆒
🆗🆒
I wrote about the bizarre case of Herasight, the embryo selection company going all in on eugenics.
Embryo selection company Herasight goes all in on eugenics
...
open.substack.com
December 13, 2025 at 9:01 PM
> Prior to founding Herasight, Anomaly wrote extensively on the ethics of embryo selection, notably in a 2018 article titled “Defending eugenics”.
🆗🆒
🆗🆒
Reposted by Tim Kaiser
🔥 New viewpoint paper accepted at Journal of Psychopathology and Clinical Science!
I propose a behavioral conceptualization of personality functioning (PF) that reframes the construct in terms of learned self-related repertoires rather than inferred inner structures.
I propose a behavioral conceptualization of personality functioning (PF) that reframes the construct in terms of learned self-related repertoires rather than inferred inner structures.
December 12, 2025 at 9:41 AM
🔥 New viewpoint paper accepted at Journal of Psychopathology and Clinical Science!
I propose a behavioral conceptualization of personality functioning (PF) that reframes the construct in terms of learned self-related repertoires rather than inferred inner structures.
I propose a behavioral conceptualization of personality functioning (PF) that reframes the construct in terms of learned self-related repertoires rather than inferred inner structures.
Reposted by Tim Kaiser
Help make today 'paper appreciation day'!
You can do this right now:
Think of a person who wrote a paper you love, whose work influenced or helped you, or has made your professional life better.
Search up their email address. Shoot them a quick email of thanks. It means so, so much. This is a rough time of year, share some joy.
Think of a person who wrote a paper you love, whose work influenced or helped you, or has made your professional life better.
Search up their email address. Shoot them a quick email of thanks. It means so, so much. This is a rough time of year, share some joy.
December 12, 2025 at 9:01 AM
Help make today 'paper appreciation day'!
Reposted by Tim Kaiser
Keeping this at hand in case I need to point to it and tap
December 12, 2025 at 4:39 PM
Keeping this at hand in case I need to point to it and tap
🔥 New viewpoint paper accepted at Journal of Psychopathology and Clinical Science!
I propose a behavioral conceptualization of personality functioning (PF) that reframes the construct in terms of learned self-related repertoires rather than inferred inner structures.
I propose a behavioral conceptualization of personality functioning (PF) that reframes the construct in terms of learned self-related repertoires rather than inferred inner structures.
December 12, 2025 at 9:41 AM
🔥 New viewpoint paper accepted at Journal of Psychopathology and Clinical Science!
I propose a behavioral conceptualization of personality functioning (PF) that reframes the construct in terms of learned self-related repertoires rather than inferred inner structures.
I propose a behavioral conceptualization of personality functioning (PF) that reframes the construct in terms of learned self-related repertoires rather than inferred inner structures.
Right on time for the upcoming holidays, and an upcoming paper, this arrived 🙂
December 11, 2025 at 9:34 PM
Right on time for the upcoming holidays, and an upcoming paper, this arrived 🙂