Cameron Martin
@thecmartin.bsky.social
Senior Economist at the CBI. Steady-state equilibrium consumer (of Melkesjokolade).
Reposted by Cameron Martin
The latest CBI Industrial Trends Survey shows manufacturing output volumes fell in the three months to December, though at a slower pace than in November. Firms expect output to decline again over the next three months.
December 17, 2025 at 11:02 AM
The latest CBI Industrial Trends Survey shows manufacturing output volumes fell in the three months to December, though at a slower pace than in November. Firms expect output to decline again over the next three months.
Reposted by Cameron Martin
📢 NEW: CBI UK Economic Forecast 📢
We project UK #GDP growth of 1.4% in 2025, 1.3% in 2026, and 1.5% in 2027. Moderate growth masks continued subdued momentum in household spending and business investment, while longer-term prospects remain constrained by weak productivity.
🧵👇
We project UK #GDP growth of 1.4% in 2025, 1.3% in 2026, and 1.5% in 2027. Moderate growth masks continued subdued momentum in household spending and business investment, while longer-term prospects remain constrained by weak productivity.
🧵👇
December 12, 2025 at 9:31 AM
📢 NEW: CBI UK Economic Forecast 📢
We project UK #GDP growth of 1.4% in 2025, 1.3% in 2026, and 1.5% in 2027. Moderate growth masks continued subdued momentum in household spending and business investment, while longer-term prospects remain constrained by weak productivity.
🧵👇
We project UK #GDP growth of 1.4% in 2025, 1.3% in 2026, and 1.5% in 2027. Moderate growth masks continued subdued momentum in household spending and business investment, while longer-term prospects remain constrained by weak productivity.
🧵👇
Reposted by Cameron Martin
A little overshadowed by the GDP data this morning, but worth noting that households' inflation expectations have crept up again in the latest BoE Inflation Attitudes Survey.
Hhs now expect the CPI rate to be 3.4% in two years time, the highest such expectation since end-2022
Hhs now expect the CPI rate to be 3.4% in two years time, the highest such expectation since end-2022
September 12, 2025 at 9:49 AM
A little overshadowed by the GDP data this morning, but worth noting that households' inflation expectations have crept up again in the latest BoE Inflation Attitudes Survey.
Hhs now expect the CPI rate to be 3.4% in two years time, the highest such expectation since end-2022
Hhs now expect the CPI rate to be 3.4% in two years time, the highest such expectation since end-2022
Reposted by Cameron Martin
September 3, 2025 at 8:27 PM
Reposted by Cameron Martin
Sticky inflation vs a cooling labour market — a tough trade-off for the MPC.
In our latest Economy in Brief, @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social unpacks:
· Why the MPC is so divided
· Mixed signals on UK growth
· What’s next for private sector activity
Read more: www.cbi.org.uk/articles/eco...
In our latest Economy in Brief, @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social unpacks:
· Why the MPC is so divided
· Mixed signals on UK growth
· What’s next for private sector activity
Read more: www.cbi.org.uk/articles/eco...
Economy in brief: August 2025 | CBI
Your monthly guide to the UK economy, giving you a monthly overview of the major trends impacting the UK's main business sectors.
www.cbi.org.uk
September 2, 2025 at 11:28 AM
Sticky inflation vs a cooling labour market — a tough trade-off for the MPC.
In our latest Economy in Brief, @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social unpacks:
· Why the MPC is so divided
· Mixed signals on UK growth
· What’s next for private sector activity
Read more: www.cbi.org.uk/articles/eco...
In our latest Economy in Brief, @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social unpacks:
· Why the MPC is so divided
· Mixed signals on UK growth
· What’s next for private sector activity
Read more: www.cbi.org.uk/articles/eco...
Reposted by Cameron Martin
September 2, 2025 at 7:50 AM
Reposted by Cameron Martin
My only geopolitical insight today: Macron is always the best dressed global leader.
August 18, 2025 at 4:59 PM
My only geopolitical insight today: Macron is always the best dressed global leader.
Reposted by Cameron Martin
UK GDP grew by 0.3% q/q in Q2 2025, beating consensus estimates of 0.1%. Nonetheless, this marked a slowdown from the 0.7% growth seen over Q1 2025.
August 14, 2025 at 9:29 AM
UK GDP grew by 0.3% q/q in Q2 2025, beating consensus estimates of 0.1%. Nonetheless, this marked a slowdown from the 0.7% growth seen over Q1 2025.
Reposted by Cameron Martin
Key release of UK GDP this morning, not least for the government which is hoping for some signs of growth... In the event, growth was higher than expected at 0.3% in Q2, but still slowed sharply from 0.7% in Q1. Lots going on in the data here - thread on all that to follow...
August 14, 2025 at 6:16 AM
Key release of UK GDP this morning, not least for the government which is hoping for some signs of growth... In the event, growth was higher than expected at 0.3% in Q2, but still slowed sharply from 0.7% in Q1. Lots going on in the data here - thread on all that to follow...
Our latest Growth Indicator points to another broad-based contraction in private sector activity through to October. #GI
📉 Private sector firms expect activity to fall again through October.
The latest CBI Growth Indicator shows continued weakness across the economy, extending a run of negative sentiment that began in late 2024
The latest CBI Growth Indicator shows continued weakness across the economy, extending a run of negative sentiment that began in late 2024
July 30, 2025 at 8:43 AM
Our latest Growth Indicator points to another broad-based contraction in private sector activity through to October. #GI
Reposted by Cameron Martin
The UK economy surprised with strong growth in Q1 2025, but faced domestic and global headwinds in Q2 📉 Our latest Economic Deep Dive cuts through the noise to break down trends in demand, inflation, labour, and investment 🔍
Exclusive to CBI members🔒:
www.cbi.org.uk/articles/eco...
Exclusive to CBI members🔒:
www.cbi.org.uk/articles/eco...
Economic deep dive Q2 2025 | CBI
Your quarterly guide to the UK economy; making sense of the key trends and what's driving them.
www.cbi.org.uk
July 7, 2025 at 12:01 PM
The UK economy surprised with strong growth in Q1 2025, but faced domestic and global headwinds in Q2 📉 Our latest Economic Deep Dive cuts through the noise to break down trends in demand, inflation, labour, and investment 🔍
Exclusive to CBI members🔒:
www.cbi.org.uk/articles/eco...
Exclusive to CBI members🔒:
www.cbi.org.uk/articles/eco...
June's DTS showed another fall in retail sales volumes, extending a long period of weakness. July isn't expected to be any better, with retailers citing consumer caution as a reason for weak sales.
#Retail sales volumes fell at a sharp rate in the year to June, according to the latest CBI Distributive Trades Survey. Retailers expect sales to decline rapidly again next month.
June 26, 2025 at 10:10 AM
June's DTS showed another fall in retail sales volumes, extending a long period of weakness. July isn't expected to be any better, with retailers citing consumer caution as a reason for weak sales.
Reposted by Cameron Martin
Only 3% of median-income Millennial households (27-42 year olds) are predicted to achieve "moderate" living standards in retirement
Save more / work longer / generate higher investment returns
Save more / work longer / generate higher investment returns
June 25, 2025 at 10:03 AM
Only 3% of median-income Millennial households (27-42 year olds) are predicted to achieve "moderate" living standards in retirement
Save more / work longer / generate higher investment returns
Save more / work longer / generate higher investment returns
Reposted by Cameron Martin
Of course, the most important release this is week is our own economic forecast on Wednesday - which will outline our view of the UK economic outlook over the next couple of years, amid continued domestic headwinds and increasing geopolitical volatility
Here are the key UK economic data releases and events for this week
June 16, 2025 at 8:50 AM
Of course, the most important release this is week is our own economic forecast on Wednesday - which will outline our view of the UK economic outlook over the next couple of years, amid continued domestic headwinds and increasing geopolitical volatility
Reposted by Cameron Martin
On the 0.3% fall in GDP over April: worth noting that business surveys (including our own) have been pointing to weaker activity than official data for some time now. The latest outturn may be be the start of that divergence narrowing, but...
June 12, 2025 at 1:54 PM
On the 0.3% fall in GDP over April: worth noting that business surveys (including our own) have been pointing to weaker activity than official data for some time now. The latest outturn may be be the start of that divergence narrowing, but...
It was always unlikely the strong growth figures we saw in Q1 would be sustained. Though a fall of 0.3% was worse than expected, as both higher taxes and "Liberation-Day" related disruption weighed on activity
UK #GDP contracted more than expected by 0.3% in the month to April, the sharpest decline since October 2023. Some pay-back was likely following solid increases in February (0.5%) and March (0.2%). GDP rose by 0.7% in the three months to April
June 12, 2025 at 10:54 AM
It was always unlikely the strong growth figures we saw in Q1 would be sustained. Though a fall of 0.3% was worse than expected, as both higher taxes and "Liberation-Day" related disruption weighed on activity
Reposted by Cameron Martin
#Retail sales volumes rose for the fourth consecutive month, by 1.2% in April (m/m), following a rise of 0.1% in March. Compared against pre-pandemic levels, volumes were up by 0.3%, at their highest since July 2022.
May 23, 2025 at 9:22 AM
#Retail sales volumes rose for the fourth consecutive month, by 1.2% in April (m/m), following a rise of 0.1% in March. Compared against pre-pandemic levels, volumes were up by 0.3%, at their highest since July 2022.
Reposted by Cameron Martin
UK CPI #inflation rose to 3.5% in April (from 2.6% in March), broadly in line with Bank of England expectations. This marked the highest rate of inflation since January 2024. Core CPI inflation also picked up to 3.8%, from 3.4% last month
May 21, 2025 at 9:34 AM
UK CPI #inflation rose to 3.5% in April (from 2.6% in March), broadly in line with Bank of England expectations. This marked the highest rate of inflation since January 2024. Core CPI inflation also picked up to 3.8%, from 3.4% last month
Reposted by Cameron Martin
Congratulations to the government on its #UKEUReset showing that it’s serious about #growth and backing business. Firms across the UK will welcome commitments on regulatory cooperation, defence, net zero and trade with Northern Ireland.
Full response: bit.ly/3H3rm6M 👇
Full response: bit.ly/3H3rm6M 👇
CBI responds to UK-EU Summit | CBI
After the turbulence of the last decade, today's Summit marks a leap forward in the EU-UK relationship.
bit.ly
May 19, 2025 at 4:09 PM
Congratulations to the government on its #UKEUReset showing that it’s serious about #growth and backing business. Firms across the UK will welcome commitments on regulatory cooperation, defence, net zero and trade with Northern Ireland.
Full response: bit.ly/3H3rm6M 👇
Full response: bit.ly/3H3rm6M 👇
Reposted by Cameron Martin
Fantastic @tobyn.bsky.social-post looking at the details of Moody’s methodology, which indicate that on raw “fiscal strength” alone the US might only warrant a super-junky Caa2 rating. on.ft.com/4dpLMmf
Understanding the methodology behind Moody’s US downgrade
[FREE TO READ] It’s just, like, their opinion man
on.ft.com
May 20, 2025 at 8:18 AM
Fantastic @tobyn.bsky.social-post looking at the details of Moody’s methodology, which indicate that on raw “fiscal strength” alone the US might only warrant a super-junky Caa2 rating. on.ft.com/4dpLMmf
Reposted by Cameron Martin
UK GDP grew by a robust 0.7% in Q1 2025, beating consensus estimates of 0.6%. This follows on from 0.1% in Q4 2024. The economy has grown 1.3% over the past year.
May 15, 2025 at 9:30 AM
UK GDP grew by a robust 0.7% in Q1 2025, beating consensus estimates of 0.6%. This follows on from 0.1% in Q4 2024. The economy has grown 1.3% over the past year.
Reposted by Cameron Martin
We have arrived!
Hello! We’re the economics team at the Confederation of British Industry (CBI). Follow us for posts on UK macroeconomics, our business surveys, tax & fiscal policy, and updates on our consulting work.
May 14, 2025 at 3:14 PM
We have arrived!
Reposted by Cameron Martin
Hello! We’re the economics team at the Confederation of British Industry (CBI). Follow us for posts on UK macroeconomics, our business surveys, tax & fiscal policy, and updates on our consulting work.
May 14, 2025 at 3:09 PM
Hello! We’re the economics team at the Confederation of British Industry (CBI). Follow us for posts on UK macroeconomics, our business surveys, tax & fiscal policy, and updates on our consulting work.