Alpesh Paleja
@alpeshpaleja.bsky.social
Deputy Chief Economist at the CBI. All views my own. 🌈
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Alpesh Paleja
@alpeshpaleja.bsky.social
· May 14
Hello! We’re the economics team at the Confederation of British Industry (CBI). Follow us for posts on UK macroeconomics, our business surveys, tax & fiscal policy, and updates on our consulting work.
We have arrived!
Reposted by Alpesh Paleja
Successive geopolitical shocks dominated the start of 2026.
In the latest CBI Economy in Brief, @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social unpacks market reactions, what global volatility means for the UK, and a pulse check on the UK growth story.
🔒 www.cbi.org.uk/articles/eco...
In the latest CBI Economy in Brief, @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social unpacks market reactions, what global volatility means for the UK, and a pulse check on the UK growth story.
🔒 www.cbi.org.uk/articles/eco...
www.cbi.org.uk
February 3, 2026 at 11:39 AM
Successive geopolitical shocks dominated the start of 2026.
In the latest CBI Economy in Brief, @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social unpacks market reactions, what global volatility means for the UK, and a pulse check on the UK growth story.
🔒 www.cbi.org.uk/articles/eco...
In the latest CBI Economy in Brief, @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social unpacks market reactions, what global volatility means for the UK, and a pulse check on the UK growth story.
🔒 www.cbi.org.uk/articles/eco...
A little skeptical about some of the more positive commentary on the 0.3% rise in GDP over November. Around half was driven by a rebound in car production, following the cyber attack on JLR... (1/3)
January 15, 2026 at 12:30 PM
A little skeptical about some of the more positive commentary on the 0.3% rise in GDP over November. Around half was driven by a rebound in car production, following the cyber attack on JLR... (1/3)
Spring Statement will take place on 3rd March 2026. I've never known a UK fiscal event to not be on a Wednesday...
www.gov.uk/government/n...
www.gov.uk/government/n...
Chancellor announces date of Spring Forecast
The Chancellor has asked the Office for Budget Responsibility to prepare forecast for 3 March 2026
www.gov.uk
December 22, 2025 at 6:38 PM
Spring Statement will take place on 3rd March 2026. I've never known a UK fiscal event to not be on a Wednesday...
www.gov.uk/government/n...
www.gov.uk/government/n...
It's been a tough year for businesses. Continued uncertainty, growing cost pressures, and cautious spending behaviour have been persistent headwinds to growth.
Check out the main messages from our final set of business surveys for 2025 👇:
Check out the main messages from our final set of business surveys for 2025 👇:
📉 PRIVATE SECTOR DOWNTURN SET TO CONTINUE INTO Q1 2026
The CBI’s latest surveys suggest that firms expect activity to fall again in the first quarter of 2026, extending a period of weakness that began in late 2024.
The CBI’s latest surveys suggest that firms expect activity to fall again in the first quarter of 2026, extending a period of weakness that began in late 2024.
December 22, 2025 at 9:54 AM
It's been a tough year for businesses. Continued uncertainty, growing cost pressures, and cautious spending behaviour have been persistent headwinds to growth.
Check out the main messages from our final set of business surveys for 2025 👇:
Check out the main messages from our final set of business surveys for 2025 👇:
Reposted by Alpesh Paleja
“Today’s rate cut came as no surprise… But the Committee remains deeply divided on the degree of inflation persistence in the economy, as the narrow vote showed”
Check out @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social's response to the announcement 👇
www.cbi.org.uk/media-centre...
Check out @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social's response to the announcement 👇
www.cbi.org.uk/media-centre...
CBI responds to latest Bank of England decision on interest rates | CBI
CBI responds to latest Bank of England decision on interest rates
www.cbi.org.uk
December 18, 2025 at 12:38 PM
“Today’s rate cut came as no surprise… But the Committee remains deeply divided on the degree of inflation persistence in the economy, as the narrow vote showed”
Check out @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social's response to the announcement 👇
www.cbi.org.uk/media-centre...
Check out @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social's response to the announcement 👇
www.cbi.org.uk/media-centre...
The uptick in manufacturers' price expectations in our latest survey is notable, and chimes with other indicators of pipeline price pressures edging up (incl. input price inflation in Nov)
Time will tell whether this is signal or noise, but one to bear in mind ahead of tomorrow's (likely) rate cut
Time will tell whether this is signal or noise, but one to bear in mind ahead of tomorrow's (likely) rate cut
Expectations for average selling price inflation strengthened in December and stand above the long-run average.
December 17, 2025 at 11:29 AM
The uptick in manufacturers' price expectations in our latest survey is notable, and chimes with other indicators of pipeline price pressures edging up (incl. input price inflation in Nov)
Time will tell whether this is signal or noise, but one to bear in mind ahead of tomorrow's (likely) rate cut
Time will tell whether this is signal or noise, but one to bear in mind ahead of tomorrow's (likely) rate cut
Reposted by Alpesh Paleja
📉 PRIVATE SECTOR DOWNTURN SET TO ACCELERATE TO FEBRUARY 2026
Firms expect activity to fall again over the next three months, extending a period of weakness that began in late 2024. Growth expectations worsened a little further, in large part driven by pre-Budget uncertainty.
Firms expect activity to fall again over the next three months, extending a period of weakness that began in late 2024. Growth expectations worsened a little further, in large part driven by pre-Budget uncertainty.
December 2, 2025 at 9:13 AM
📉 PRIVATE SECTOR DOWNTURN SET TO ACCELERATE TO FEBRUARY 2026
Firms expect activity to fall again over the next three months, extending a period of weakness that began in late 2024. Growth expectations worsened a little further, in large part driven by pre-Budget uncertainty.
Firms expect activity to fall again over the next three months, extending a period of weakness that began in late 2024. Growth expectations worsened a little further, in large part driven by pre-Budget uncertainty.
Reposted by Alpesh Paleja
Following Budget jitters that left businesses in a state of suspension, @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social unpacks in our extended Economy in Brief:
· Key takeaways from the OBR forecast
· The Budget’s implications for the economic outlook and monetary policy
Read more🔒:
www.cbi.org.uk/articles/eco...
· Key takeaways from the OBR forecast
· The Budget’s implications for the economic outlook and monetary policy
Read more🔒:
www.cbi.org.uk/articles/eco...
Economy in brief: November 2025 | CBI
Your monthly overview of the major trends impacting the UK’s main business sectors.
www.cbi.org.uk
December 4, 2025 at 9:33 AM
Following Budget jitters that left businesses in a state of suspension, @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social unpacks in our extended Economy in Brief:
· Key takeaways from the OBR forecast
· The Budget’s implications for the economic outlook and monetary policy
Read more🔒:
www.cbi.org.uk/articles/eco...
· Key takeaways from the OBR forecast
· The Budget’s implications for the economic outlook and monetary policy
Read more🔒:
www.cbi.org.uk/articles/eco...
That was a pretty dovish hold by the Monetary Policy Committee, with Andrew Bailey (the deciding vote) particularly more sanguine on upside inflation risks.
December rate cut definitely back on the table.
www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-pol...
December rate cut definitely back on the table.
www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-pol...
Bank Rate maintained at 4% - November 2025 Monetary Policy Summary and Minutes
Find out more about the Monetary Policy Committee’s latest decision
www.bankofengland.co.uk
November 6, 2025 at 1:48 PM
That was a pretty dovish hold by the Monetary Policy Committee, with Andrew Bailey (the deciding vote) particularly more sanguine on upside inflation risks.
December rate cut definitely back on the table.
www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-pol...
December rate cut definitely back on the table.
www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-pol...
Reposted by Alpesh Paleja
Some good news for the UK economy: inflation has likely peaked and the labour market shows signs of stabilising.
In our latest Economy in Brief, @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social explores what this means for monetary policy and the wider economic outlook.
Read more🔒: www.cbi.org.uk/articles/eco...
In our latest Economy in Brief, @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social explores what this means for monetary policy and the wider economic outlook.
Read more🔒: www.cbi.org.uk/articles/eco...
Economy in brief: October 2025 | CBI
Your monthly overview of the major trends impacting the UK’s main business sectors.
www.cbi.org.uk
November 6, 2025 at 11:41 AM
Some good news for the UK economy: inflation has likely peaked and the labour market shows signs of stabilising.
In our latest Economy in Brief, @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social explores what this means for monetary policy and the wider economic outlook.
Read more🔒: www.cbi.org.uk/articles/eco...
In our latest Economy in Brief, @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social explores what this means for monetary policy and the wider economic outlook.
Read more🔒: www.cbi.org.uk/articles/eco...
Thrilled to join the first episode of The CBI Exchange - our brand new podcast!
Tune in as we unpack the state of the economy ahead of the Budget, speculate on what we might expect from the Chancellor, and outline what business needs to thrive
audioboom.com/posts/880055...
Tune in as we unpack the state of the economy ahead of the Budget, speculate on what we might expect from the Chancellor, and outline what business needs to thrive
audioboom.com/posts/880055...
The CBI Exchange: The Budget Briefing
Join us for a seat at the table with the people shaping the UK economy - from business leaders and economists to the policymakers behind the headlines.
audioboom.com
November 4, 2025 at 4:51 PM
Thrilled to join the first episode of The CBI Exchange - our brand new podcast!
Tune in as we unpack the state of the economy ahead of the Budget, speculate on what we might expect from the Chancellor, and outline what business needs to thrive
audioboom.com/posts/880055...
Tune in as we unpack the state of the economy ahead of the Budget, speculate on what we might expect from the Chancellor, and outline what business needs to thrive
audioboom.com/posts/880055...
Reposted by Alpesh Paleja
📉 PRIVATE SECTOR DOWNTURN SET TO PERSIST INTO 2026
Firms once again expect activity to fall over the next three months, with weakness across the board mirroring subdued GDP growth.
Firms once again expect activity to fall over the next three months, with weakness across the board mirroring subdued GDP growth.
October 29, 2025 at 9:06 AM
📉 PRIVATE SECTOR DOWNTURN SET TO PERSIST INTO 2026
Firms once again expect activity to fall over the next three months, with weakness across the board mirroring subdued GDP growth.
Firms once again expect activity to fall over the next three months, with weakness across the board mirroring subdued GDP growth.
Reposted by Alpesh Paleja
The latest CBI Industrial Trends Survey found that output volumes fell in the quarter to October, at a similar pace to the quarter to September. Firms expect volumes to fall again in the three months to January.
October 23, 2025 at 10:08 AM
The latest CBI Industrial Trends Survey found that output volumes fell in the quarter to October, at a similar pace to the quarter to September. Firms expect volumes to fall again in the three months to January.
Really pleased to be able to host Jon Hall of the Bank of England's FPC this week, for his upcoming speech on the balance between financial stability and long-term economic growth. Link to register below 👇
This Thursday, we're pleased to be hosting Jon Hall, External Member of the Bank of England's Financial Policy Committee, for a discussion on safeguarding UK financial stability while supporting long-term growth.
🔒 Members only - register here: events.cbi.org.uk/event/2b056a....
🔒 Members only - register here: events.cbi.org.uk/event/2b056a....
Home - CBI Member Discussion with Jon Hall, External Member of the Bank of England's Financial Policy Committee (FPC)
events.cbi.org.uk
October 20, 2025 at 9:56 AM
Really pleased to be able to host Jon Hall of the Bank of England's FPC this week, for his upcoming speech on the balance between financial stability and long-term economic growth. Link to register below 👇
Reposted by Alpesh Paleja
With weak underlying economic momentum and sticky #inflation, the #MPC is set to tread cautiously. In our September’s Economy in Brief, @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social explores the Bank Rate decision, UK outlook and jittery bond markets.
Read more🔒: www.cbi.org.uk/articles/eco...
Read more🔒: www.cbi.org.uk/articles/eco...
Economy in brief: September 2025 | CBI
Your monthly overview of the major trends impacting the UK’s main business sectors.
www.cbi.org.uk
September 30, 2025 at 9:03 AM
With weak underlying economic momentum and sticky #inflation, the #MPC is set to tread cautiously. In our September’s Economy in Brief, @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social explores the Bank Rate decision, UK outlook and jittery bond markets.
Read more🔒: www.cbi.org.uk/articles/eco...
Read more🔒: www.cbi.org.uk/articles/eco...
A little overshadowed by the GDP data this morning, but worth noting that households' inflation expectations have crept up again in the latest BoE Inflation Attitudes Survey.
Hhs now expect the CPI rate to be 3.4% in two years time, the highest such expectation since end-2022
Hhs now expect the CPI rate to be 3.4% in two years time, the highest such expectation since end-2022
September 12, 2025 at 9:49 AM
A little overshadowed by the GDP data this morning, but worth noting that households' inflation expectations have crept up again in the latest BoE Inflation Attitudes Survey.
Hhs now expect the CPI rate to be 3.4% in two years time, the highest such expectation since end-2022
Hhs now expect the CPI rate to be 3.4% in two years time, the highest such expectation since end-2022
Reposted by Alpesh Paleja
The last week saw a rise in bond yields across advanced economies, reflecting concern in markets about the state of public finances across the G7
Why did yields spike, and why have they remained higher in the UK than elsewhere? Check out our latest note:
www.cbi.org.uk/articles/unp...
Why did yields spike, and why have they remained higher in the UK than elsewhere? Check out our latest note:
www.cbi.org.uk/articles/unp...
Unpacking recent moves in global bond markets | CBI
Bond yields surged across major economies, with Japan’s 30-year hitting a record and UK gilts peaking at 5.75%—the highest since 1998. Turbulence continues.
www.cbi.org.uk
September 5, 2025 at 9:54 AM
The last week saw a rise in bond yields across advanced economies, reflecting concern in markets about the state of public finances across the G7
Why did yields spike, and why have they remained higher in the UK than elsewhere? Check out our latest note:
www.cbi.org.uk/articles/unp...
Why did yields spike, and why have they remained higher in the UK than elsewhere? Check out our latest note:
www.cbi.org.uk/articles/unp...
Reposted by Alpesh Paleja
📈 I've been critical of the ONS in the past, but this is a refreshingly honest account of how they've started to fix issues with retail sales in the past few weeks. Let's hope they can adopt this approach across other published statistics: blog.ons.gov.uk/2025/09/05/c...
Correcting the record on retail sales, improving quality across economic statistics
Under new senior leadership the ONS is urgently focusing its resources on core economic statistics as part of a wider strategic recovery plan. In this post, incoming Director General for economic soci
blog.ons.gov.uk
September 5, 2025 at 7:11 AM
📈 I've been critical of the ONS in the past, but this is a refreshingly honest account of how they've started to fix issues with retail sales in the past few weeks. Let's hope they can adopt this approach across other published statistics: blog.ons.gov.uk/2025/09/05/c...
Reposted by Alpesh Paleja
Sticky inflation vs a cooling labour market — a tough trade-off for the MPC.
In our latest Economy in Brief, @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social unpacks:
· Why the MPC is so divided
· Mixed signals on UK growth
· What’s next for private sector activity
Read more: www.cbi.org.uk/articles/eco...
In our latest Economy in Brief, @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social unpacks:
· Why the MPC is so divided
· Mixed signals on UK growth
· What’s next for private sector activity
Read more: www.cbi.org.uk/articles/eco...
Economy in brief: August 2025 | CBI
Your monthly guide to the UK economy, giving you a monthly overview of the major trends impacting the UK's main business sectors.
www.cbi.org.uk
September 2, 2025 at 11:28 AM
Sticky inflation vs a cooling labour market — a tough trade-off for the MPC.
In our latest Economy in Brief, @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social unpacks:
· Why the MPC is so divided
· Mixed signals on UK growth
· What’s next for private sector activity
Read more: www.cbi.org.uk/articles/eco...
In our latest Economy in Brief, @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social unpacks:
· Why the MPC is so divided
· Mixed signals on UK growth
· What’s next for private sector activity
Read more: www.cbi.org.uk/articles/eco...
Reposted by Alpesh Paleja
This week is the #NobelPrize meeting 🎓
Since the Economics prize was introduced in 1969, over half of all laureates have been US–born.
Last year’s laureates: Daron Acemoglu 🇹🇷, James Robinson 🇺🇸🇬🇧 & Simon Johnson 🇬🇧, won for their research on institutions, growth & inequality.
#ChartOfTheDay
Since the Economics prize was introduced in 1969, over half of all laureates have been US–born.
Last year’s laureates: Daron Acemoglu 🇹🇷, James Robinson 🇺🇸🇬🇧 & Simon Johnson 🇬🇧, won for their research on institutions, growth & inequality.
#ChartOfTheDay
August 27, 2025 at 9:02 AM
This week is the #NobelPrize meeting 🎓
Since the Economics prize was introduced in 1969, over half of all laureates have been US–born.
Last year’s laureates: Daron Acemoglu 🇹🇷, James Robinson 🇺🇸🇬🇧 & Simon Johnson 🇬🇧, won for their research on institutions, growth & inequality.
#ChartOfTheDay
Since the Economics prize was introduced in 1969, over half of all laureates have been US–born.
Last year’s laureates: Daron Acemoglu 🇹🇷, James Robinson 🇺🇸🇬🇧 & Simon Johnson 🇬🇧, won for their research on institutions, growth & inequality.
#ChartOfTheDay
A characteristically hawkish speech from Catherine Mann, mostly focusing on the dangers of inflation persistence. But she leaves the door open to voting for "forceful policy action" if downside risks to growth materialise:
www.bankofengland.co.uk/speech/2025/...
www.bankofengland.co.uk/speech/2025/...
Five ‘C’s for Central Bank Research − speech by Catherine L. Mann
Given at The Future of Central Banking conference on the occasion of the 100th Anniversary, Banco de México
www.bankofengland.co.uk
August 26, 2025 at 4:34 PM
A characteristically hawkish speech from Catherine Mann, mostly focusing on the dangers of inflation persistence. But she leaves the door open to voting for "forceful policy action" if downside risks to growth materialise:
www.bankofengland.co.uk/speech/2025/...
www.bankofengland.co.uk/speech/2025/...
Our latest #manufacturing survey continues to paint an un-pretty picture of activity, chiming with the weakness in this morning's flash manufacturing PMI. More below 👇
The latest CBI Industrial Trends Survey found that manufacturing output volumes fell in the three months to August, after being broadly unchanged in the three months to July. Manufacturers expect output volumes to decline again in the next three months.
August 21, 2025 at 1:33 PM
Our latest #manufacturing survey continues to paint an un-pretty picture of activity, chiming with the weakness in this morning's flash manufacturing PMI. More below 👇
To note that the ONS' 2025 Blue Book GDP estimates show a much stronger picture for business investment, largely due to higher R&D spending
Capex now estimated to have consistently recovered its COVID decline in Q3 2021 - two years earlier than in the current vintage of data
Capex now estimated to have consistently recovered its COVID decline in Q3 2021 - two years earlier than in the current vintage of data
August 20, 2025 at 1:27 PM
To note that the ONS' 2025 Blue Book GDP estimates show a much stronger picture for business investment, largely due to higher R&D spending
Capex now estimated to have consistently recovered its COVID decline in Q3 2021 - two years earlier than in the current vintage of data
Capex now estimated to have consistently recovered its COVID decline in Q3 2021 - two years earlier than in the current vintage of data
Reposted by Alpesh Paleja
Slightly worrying that the publication of the ONS' retail sales statistics has been delayed with such little notice.
August 19, 2025 at 9:44 AM
Slightly worrying that the publication of the ONS' retail sales statistics has been delayed with such little notice.
Reposted by Alpesh Paleja
Weak growth, stubborn inflation
The Bank of England faces a tough trade-off, with cautious rate cuts amid a loosening jobs market. Wage pressures are easing slowly, but risks remain.
This month's Economy in Brief from @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social breaks it down: t.co/0RouuL0j4W 🔒
The Bank of England faces a tough trade-off, with cautious rate cuts amid a loosening jobs market. Wage pressures are easing slowly, but risks remain.
This month's Economy in Brief from @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social breaks it down: t.co/0RouuL0j4W 🔒
https://www.cbi.org.uk/articles/economy-in-brief-july-2025/
t.co
July 31, 2025 at 9:29 AM
Weak growth, stubborn inflation
The Bank of England faces a tough trade-off, with cautious rate cuts amid a loosening jobs market. Wage pressures are easing slowly, but risks remain.
This month's Economy in Brief from @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social breaks it down: t.co/0RouuL0j4W 🔒
The Bank of England faces a tough trade-off, with cautious rate cuts amid a loosening jobs market. Wage pressures are easing slowly, but risks remain.
This month's Economy in Brief from @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social breaks it down: t.co/0RouuL0j4W 🔒