Sunset Shazz
@sunsetshazz.bsky.social
Football, decision theory, and economics. Model pluralist.
Pinned
Sunset Shazz
@sunsetshazz.bsky.social
· Feb 10
Band at Fritzel’s on Bourbon St playing Fly Eagles Fly in the wee hours, with @denizselman33.bsky.social, no big deal.
Let's be clear that turnovers are bad. But also: I would rather a QB not play scared, when he is demonstrably the most accurate (CPOE) over the past 4 years, and is an excellent deep ball thrower. Last week's outcome sucked. But a more aggressive, less scared offense is a good thing. Don't give up.
December 11, 2025 at 8:50 PM
Let's be clear that turnovers are bad. But also: I would rather a QB not play scared, when he is demonstrably the most accurate (CPOE) over the past 4 years, and is an excellent deep ball thrower. Last week's outcome sucked. But a more aggressive, less scared offense is a good thing. Don't give up.
Old and busted: Lane Johnson with-or-without-you analysis.
New hotness: Charley Hughlett WoWY.
New hotness: Charley Hughlett WoWY.
December 10, 2025 at 12:09 AM
Old and busted: Lane Johnson with-or-without-you analysis.
New hotness: Charley Hughlett WoWY.
New hotness: Charley Hughlett WoWY.
The reason numerate fans who pay attention to the game believe “the sky is falling” for this talented, expensive offense is the underlying, predictive metrics are atrocious. Take away the turnovers yesterday, they still had a bottom quartile success rate. Also bottom quartile for the season.
December 9, 2025 at 8:01 PM
The reason numerate fans who pay attention to the game believe “the sky is falling” for this talented, expensive offense is the underlying, predictive metrics are atrocious. Take away the turnovers yesterday, they still had a bottom quartile success rate. Also bottom quartile for the season.
For those of you who like to emotionally hedge, the Eagles are ranked the 3rd best team in the league. For Eagles fans like me who believe that modern betting markets have sufficient liquidity for weak-form efficiency, this is good news.
stats.inpredictable.com/rankings/nfl...
stats.inpredictable.com/rankings/nfl...
NFL Betting Market Rankings
stats.inpredictable.com
December 4, 2025 at 2:34 AM
For those of you who like to emotionally hedge, the Eagles are ranked the 3rd best team in the league. For Eagles fans like me who believe that modern betting markets have sufficient liquidity for weak-form efficiency, this is good news.
stats.inpredictable.com/rankings/nfl...
stats.inpredictable.com/rankings/nfl...
Each football season has so many dimensions of variability, what is the likelihood that 2025 will be like any of the years since the merger, let alone a recent one like 2023?
December 3, 2025 at 11:40 PM
Each football season has so many dimensions of variability, what is the likelihood that 2025 will be like any of the years since the merger, let alone a recent one like 2023?
@daboulciff.bsky.social Can you make @sheilkapadia.bsky.social’s imagined discussion between Lurie, Howie and Jalen a standalone short? It is so, so good. That’s exactly the solution-oriented service journalism we need.
December 2, 2025 at 5:05 PM
@daboulciff.bsky.social Can you make @sheilkapadia.bsky.social’s imagined discussion between Lurie, Howie and Jalen a standalone short? It is so, so good. That’s exactly the solution-oriented service journalism we need.
Eagles fans (including, presumably, the one fan whose opinion matters) are frustrated by a bottom quartile offense composed of pro bowlers and all pros at tackle, guard, QB, WR, RB and TE.
#Eagles offensive consistency metrics
40.2% success% (25th), worst since '05
42.5% pass success (22nd), worst since '20
38.5% rush success (22nd), worst since '14
70.4% series conversion% (24th), worst since '20
33.3% 3 & out rate (32nd), worst of any NFL team since 2014 Raiders
40.2% success% (25th), worst since '05
42.5% pass success (22nd), worst since '20
38.5% rush success (22nd), worst since '14
70.4% series conversion% (24th), worst since '20
33.3% 3 & out rate (32nd), worst of any NFL team since 2014 Raiders
November 29, 2025 at 4:54 PM
Eagles fans (including, presumably, the one fan whose opinion matters) are frustrated by a bottom quartile offense composed of pro bowlers and all pros at tackle, guard, QB, WR, RB and TE.
Reposted by Sunset Shazz
The success they've had (going two of the last three Super Bowls) actually serves to highlight/exacerbate the issue rather than providing a balm.
It seems like a lot of national NFL writers -- and even some of the more troll-ish local ones -- are acting like this Eagles fan frustration came out of nowhere.
We've been annoyed with the awful offensive gameplans & wasting of talent all season. This is just the culmination.
We've been annoyed with the awful offensive gameplans & wasting of talent all season. This is just the culmination.
November 29, 2025 at 4:37 PM
The success they've had (going two of the last three Super Bowls) actually serves to highlight/exacerbate the issue rather than providing a balm.
Reposted by Sunset Shazz
Eagles offense currently 17th in EPA/drive and 26th in success rate.
Here are all the times over the past 20 years the Eagles offense has finished in the bottom half of the league in both EPA/drive and success rate:
2012 (Andy Reid fired)
2015 (Chip Kelly fired)
2020 (Doug Pederson fired)
Here are all the times over the past 20 years the Eagles offense has finished in the bottom half of the league in both EPA/drive and success rate:
2012 (Andy Reid fired)
2015 (Chip Kelly fired)
2020 (Doug Pederson fired)
November 29, 2025 at 2:51 PM
Eagles offense currently 17th in EPA/drive and 26th in success rate.
Here are all the times over the past 20 years the Eagles offense has finished in the bottom half of the league in both EPA/drive and success rate:
2012 (Andy Reid fired)
2015 (Chip Kelly fired)
2020 (Doug Pederson fired)
Here are all the times over the past 20 years the Eagles offense has finished in the bottom half of the league in both EPA/drive and success rate:
2012 (Andy Reid fired)
2015 (Chip Kelly fired)
2020 (Doug Pederson fired)
The 2022 Eagles defense under Jonathan Gannon had a top 5 EPA/play, and a median level success rate. The latter was indicative of true quality.
Similarly, the 2025 Eagles offense has a median level EPA/play, yet the bottom quartile success rate and series conversion rate indicate true quality.
Similarly, the 2025 Eagles offense has a median level EPA/play, yet the bottom quartile success rate and series conversion rate indicate true quality.
November 29, 2025 at 4:04 PM
The 2022 Eagles defense under Jonathan Gannon had a top 5 EPA/play, and a median level success rate. The latter was indicative of true quality.
Similarly, the 2025 Eagles offense has a median level EPA/play, yet the bottom quartile success rate and series conversion rate indicate true quality.
Similarly, the 2025 Eagles offense has a median level EPA/play, yet the bottom quartile success rate and series conversion rate indicate true quality.
For the seventh week in a row, I am begging a stranger to shave his head.
November 29, 2025 at 5:18 AM
For the seventh week in a row, I am begging a stranger to shave his head.
Gen Alpha charades clue. I feel old.
November 28, 2025 at 4:41 AM
Gen Alpha charades clue. I feel old.
Reposted by Sunset Shazz
#Eagles offensive consistency metrics
40.2% success% (25th), worst since '05
42.5% pass success (22nd), worst since '20
38.5% rush success (22nd), worst since '14
70.4% series conversion% (24th), worst since '20
33.3% 3 & out rate (32nd), worst of any NFL team since 2014 Raiders
40.2% success% (25th), worst since '05
42.5% pass success (22nd), worst since '20
38.5% rush success (22nd), worst since '14
70.4% series conversion% (24th), worst since '20
33.3% 3 & out rate (32nd), worst of any NFL team since 2014 Raiders
November 24, 2025 at 9:12 PM
#Eagles offensive consistency metrics
40.2% success% (25th), worst since '05
42.5% pass success (22nd), worst since '20
38.5% rush success (22nd), worst since '14
70.4% series conversion% (24th), worst since '20
33.3% 3 & out rate (32nd), worst of any NFL team since 2014 Raiders
40.2% success% (25th), worst since '05
42.5% pass success (22nd), worst since '20
38.5% rush success (22nd), worst since '14
70.4% series conversion% (24th), worst since '20
33.3% 3 & out rate (32nd), worst of any NFL team since 2014 Raiders
I think the sample size is sufficient that Mr. Lurie should make the switch (back) to Kelly Green permanent.
November 23, 2025 at 10:13 PM
I think the sample size is sufficient that Mr. Lurie should make the switch (back) to Kelly Green permanent.
The 2025 Eagles play a brand of conservative, boring offense, built around minimizing turnovers. I guess they looked at the analytics and realized it is unlikely for Jalen Hurts to reach, let alone win, a Super Bowl. They need to protect him.
#Eagles offense is...
- not consistent like 2024 (suffering most zero or negative yard plays of Sirianni/Hurts era)
- not explosive like 2022 (producing fewest 10+ yard plays of era)
Is it just the tough schedule? We will begin to see in the next few weeks, against bad defenses.
- not consistent like 2024 (suffering most zero or negative yard plays of Sirianni/Hurts era)
- not explosive like 2022 (producing fewest 10+ yard plays of era)
Is it just the tough schedule? We will begin to see in the next few weeks, against bad defenses.
November 21, 2025 at 11:42 PM
The 2025 Eagles play a brand of conservative, boring offense, built around minimizing turnovers. I guess they looked at the analytics and realized it is unlikely for Jalen Hurts to reach, let alone win, a Super Bowl. They need to protect him.
I have posted this annually, for years, on the other app. Time to start a Bluesky tradition. From an old Igglesblog post:
November 19, 2025 at 8:53 PM
I have posted this annually, for years, on the other app. Time to start a Bluesky tradition. From an old Igglesblog post:
I have been reading/watching the judicious Fran Duffy for over a decade. When he speaks in such stark terms (about the Eagles offense), you should pay attention.
November 18, 2025 at 8:14 PM
I have been reading/watching the judicious Fran Duffy for over a decade. When he speaks in such stark terms (about the Eagles offense), you should pay attention.
Reposted by Sunset Shazz
I would describe Fran's review of the passing game in this one as "genuinely distressing."
November 18, 2025 at 7:47 PM
I would describe Fran's review of the passing game in this one as "genuinely distressing."
In 2023, the Eagles ran "The Gauntlet" of top teams and faded down the stretch. This year, they have faced the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 6th ranked teams on Inpredictable, emerging 4-0 in those games, in pole position for the 1 seed in the NFC.
stats.inpredictable.com/rankings/nfl...
stats.inpredictable.com/rankings/nfl...
NFL Betting Market Rankings
stats.inpredictable.com
November 17, 2025 at 5:43 PM
In 2023, the Eagles ran "The Gauntlet" of top teams and faded down the stretch. This year, they have faced the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 6th ranked teams on Inpredictable, emerging 4-0 in those games, in pole position for the 1 seed in the NFC.
stats.inpredictable.com/rankings/nfl...
stats.inpredictable.com/rankings/nfl...
Henceforth, we shall call this The Janky Rondo game.
November 17, 2025 at 1:36 AM
Henceforth, we shall call this The Janky Rondo game.
Most organizations strive for mediocrity. Few seek to be great. I have worked in both types, and from my experience, a truly great organization needs an AJ Brown who is vocal about pushing through the inexorable gravitational pull of mediocrity.
November 15, 2025 at 9:16 PM
Most organizations strive for mediocrity. Few seek to be great. I have worked in both types, and from my experience, a truly great organization needs an AJ Brown who is vocal about pushing through the inexorable gravitational pull of mediocrity.
@sheilkapadia.bsky.social @daboulciff.bsky.social
I went to leave a 5 star review for your podcasts on the Spotify app. They claim I have never listened! In fact, I listen on the Spotify app for my Garmin running watch [flex]. Evidently they are not giving you credit for those listens/downloads!
I went to leave a 5 star review for your podcasts on the Spotify app. They claim I have never listened! In fact, I listen on the Spotify app for my Garmin running watch [flex]. Evidently they are not giving you credit for those listens/downloads!
November 14, 2025 at 1:16 AM
@sheilkapadia.bsky.social @daboulciff.bsky.social
I went to leave a 5 star review for your podcasts on the Spotify app. They claim I have never listened! In fact, I listen on the Spotify app for my Garmin running watch [flex]. Evidently they are not giving you credit for those listens/downloads!
I went to leave a 5 star review for your podcasts on the Spotify app. They claim I have never listened! In fact, I listen on the Spotify app for my Garmin running watch [flex]. Evidently they are not giving you credit for those listens/downloads!
Homer was famous for epithets, eg “fleet-footed Achilles” or “wily Odysseus”. Henceforth, irrespective of win-loss record, we should refer to him as “embattled head coach Nick Sirianni”.
November 12, 2025 at 8:47 PM
Homer was famous for epithets, eg “fleet-footed Achilles” or “wily Odysseus”. Henceforth, irrespective of win-loss record, we should refer to him as “embattled head coach Nick Sirianni”.
Jaire Alexander played as many snaps for the Eagles as Frank Gore. Legends, both.
November 12, 2025 at 1:16 AM
Jaire Alexander played as many snaps for the Eagles as Frank Gore. Legends, both.
