Sunset Shazz
@sunsetshazz.bsky.social
Football, decision theory, and economics. Model pluralist.
Per @sumersports.bsky.social Stats & Schemes newsletter, against the Raiders the Eagles had a 91st percentile middle-of-field pass rate, and 94th percentile MOF EPA/Pass. Jalen can make those throws.
December 15, 2025 at 4:52 PM
Per @sumersports.bsky.social Stats & Schemes newsletter, against the Raiders the Eagles had a 91st percentile middle-of-field pass rate, and 94th percentile MOF EPA/Pass. Jalen can make those throws.
Old and busted: Lane Johnson with-or-without-you analysis.
New hotness: Charley Hughlett WoWY.
New hotness: Charley Hughlett WoWY.
December 10, 2025 at 12:09 AM
Old and busted: Lane Johnson with-or-without-you analysis.
New hotness: Charley Hughlett WoWY.
New hotness: Charley Hughlett WoWY.
This was in response to a thread quoting Bill Walsh’s book, on the importance of coaches getting rest:
November 30, 2025 at 11:09 PM
This was in response to a thread quoting Bill Walsh’s book, on the importance of coaches getting rest:
Coach Flinn had a superb answer about this topic when I sent in a mailbag question to Birds With Friends in 2018, before Super Bowl LII.
November 30, 2025 at 10:47 PM
Coach Flinn had a superb answer about this topic when I sent in a mailbag question to Birds With Friends in 2018, before Super Bowl LII.
Gen Alpha charades clue. I feel old.
November 28, 2025 at 4:41 AM
Gen Alpha charades clue. I feel old.
I have posted this annually, for years, on the other app. Time to start a Bluesky tradition. From an old Igglesblog post:
November 19, 2025 at 8:53 PM
I have posted this annually, for years, on the other app. Time to start a Bluesky tradition. From an old Igglesblog post:
In 2023 the Niners bragged that their practices are more intense, longer and more frequent (in terms of padded practice) than the other 31 teams. Before this season, they were 32nd in adjusted games lost over Shanahan’s 8 seasons, 23rd or worse in 7 out of 8 seasons.
November 3, 2025 at 7:02 PM
In 2023 the Niners bragged that their practices are more intense, longer and more frequent (in terms of padded practice) than the other 31 teams. Before this season, they were 32nd in adjusted games lost over Shanahan’s 8 seasons, 23rd or worse in 7 out of 8 seasons.
@jimmykempski.bsky.social is the greatest artist of our time:
October 26, 2025 at 10:54 PM
@jimmykempski.bsky.social is the greatest artist of our time:
What was the decision tree? If you thought you would trade the player, why not in March when teams are allocating their cap spending / constructing their portfolios?
Analysis from Jason Fitzgerald at @overthecap.bsky.social
Analysis from Jason Fitzgerald at @overthecap.bsky.social
August 29, 2025 at 4:51 PM
What was the decision tree? If you thought you would trade the player, why not in March when teams are allocating their cap spending / constructing their portfolios?
Analysis from Jason Fitzgerald at @overthecap.bsky.social
Analysis from Jason Fitzgerald at @overthecap.bsky.social
Here is the excellent Tim Kawakami summarizing the current brinksmanship (threats of IR, which would likely result in unfulfilled incentives). Jennings reportedly did not practice today.
August 25, 2025 at 11:21 PM
Here is the excellent Tim Kawakami summarizing the current brinksmanship (threats of IR, which would likely result in unfulfilled incentives). Jennings reportedly did not practice today.
We have 7 years of history with Kyle Shanahan injuries - 2023 was the clear outlier. The Niners presently have 21 injuries in training camp, and one of the oldest rosters in the league. To what mean can we expect to revert?
August 18, 2025 at 3:21 PM
We have 7 years of history with Kyle Shanahan injuries - 2023 was the clear outlier. The Niners presently have 21 injuries in training camp, and one of the oldest rosters in the league. To what mean can we expect to revert?
The Niners are allegedly focusing on youth in 2025, according to their PR. As Jimmy Kempski has noted, even after their “retool” they remain one of the oldest teams in the league.
August 14, 2025 at 5:00 PM
The Niners are allegedly focusing on youth in 2025, according to their PR. As Jimmy Kempski has noted, even after their “retool” they remain one of the oldest teams in the league.
Niners training camp has an insane amount of injuries. Kyle Shanahan is the unluckiest coach in the NFL.
August 12, 2025 at 11:59 PM
Niners training camp has an insane amount of injuries. Kyle Shanahan is the unluckiest coach in the NFL.
Look like Andre Dillard will be a key depth piece for the Niners during Trent Williams’s age 37 season.
August 10, 2025 at 8:23 AM
Look like Andre Dillard will be a key depth piece for the Niners during Trent Williams’s age 37 season.
I want Shipley and RB3 to carry the load, just like Ajayi, Clement and (briefly) Sproles in 17. RB Committee wins championships.
July 16, 2025 at 11:58 PM
I want Shipley and RB3 to carry the load, just like Ajayi, Clement and (briefly) Sproles in 17. RB Committee wins championships.
Here is @benrobinson.bsky.social's analysis of the degree to which teams have reached or let players fall to them, relative to the consensus. Evidence suggests the crowd is wiser than any individual team's judgment.
April 27, 2025 at 3:45 PM
Here is @benrobinson.bsky.social's analysis of the degree to which teams have reached or let players fall to them, relative to the consensus. Evidence suggests the crowd is wiser than any individual team's judgment.
Steve and Brian Belichick were key members of the defense which gave up 41 points to a team led by Nick Foles, Halapoulivaati Vaitai and Corey Clement.
They both know in their hearts they are mediocrities, propelled by nepotism, a mockery of true meritocracy.
They both know in their hearts they are mediocrities, propelled by nepotism, a mockery of true meritocracy.
April 16, 2025 at 1:13 PM
Steve and Brian Belichick were key members of the defense which gave up 41 points to a team led by Nick Foles, Halapoulivaati Vaitai and Corey Clement.
They both know in their hearts they are mediocrities, propelled by nepotism, a mockery of true meritocracy.
They both know in their hearts they are mediocrities, propelled by nepotism, a mockery of true meritocracy.
The histogram of this 8 year period tells a thousand words:
March 9, 2025 at 1:02 AM
The histogram of this 8 year period tells a thousand words:
The 2024 Adjusted Games Lost data is in. The San Francisco 49ers ranked 32nd. Moreover, the Niners have been the most injured team since Kyle Shanahan became head coach (2 standard deviations worse than avg). 1 of 8 years above median. 6 of 8 lowest quartile. He is unlucky.
March 8, 2025 at 10:28 PM
The 2024 Adjusted Games Lost data is in. The San Francisco 49ers ranked 32nd. Moreover, the Niners have been the most injured team since Kyle Shanahan became head coach (2 standard deviations worse than avg). 1 of 8 years above median. 6 of 8 lowest quartile. He is unlucky.
I love it when I pre-order a book, completely forget about it, and receive a surprise from Past Me months later.
March 6, 2025 at 3:50 PM
I love it when I pre-order a book, completely forget about it, and receive a surprise from Past Me months later.
Niners front office execs really don’t seem to like the deals that Niners front office execs negotiate.
March 3, 2025 at 10:26 PM
Niners front office execs really don’t seem to like the deals that Niners front office execs negotiate.
The NFL salary cap has grown an average 7% nominal per annum since inception in 1994. At the higher end of the 2025 estimate, this year would be a 10.2% increase, an 86th percentile outcome.
Pretty good, but not an outlier, and within a rational team's confidence interval.
Pretty good, but not an outlier, and within a rational team's confidence interval.
February 26, 2025 at 6:33 PM
The NFL salary cap has grown an average 7% nominal per annum since inception in 1994. At the higher end of the 2025 estimate, this year would be a 10.2% increase, an 86th percentile outcome.
Pretty good, but not an outlier, and within a rational team's confidence interval.
Pretty good, but not an outlier, and within a rational team's confidence interval.
Football season is done, so I’m back to the Sunday farmer’s market. Today my son and I received a “Go Birds” from a friendly, triumphant stranger.
February 24, 2025 at 1:40 AM
Football season is done, so I’m back to the Sunday farmer’s market. Today my son and I received a “Go Birds” from a friendly, triumphant stranger.