Pip Moss
@quincel.bsky.social
Betting on politics since 2010, trying to separate what I want to happen from what I think will happen.
Reposted by Pip Moss
by request: the last decade of UK politics as parties & as blocks
(left = Lab+LD+GRN, right = Con+Ref/Ukip)
(left = Lab+LD+GRN, right = Con+Ref/Ukip)
November 4, 2025 at 3:15 PM
by request: the last decade of UK politics as parties & as blocks
(left = Lab+LD+GRN, right = Con+Ref/Ukip)
(left = Lab+LD+GRN, right = Con+Ref/Ukip)
Really is mad we went straight from appalling by-election results for a party who had been in government for over a decade to appalling by-election results for a party who has been in government for a year and a bit.
October 24, 2025 at 12:42 PM
Really is mad we went straight from appalling by-election results for a party who had been in government for over a decade to appalling by-election results for a party who has been in government for a year and a bit.
Might end better for him but this has incredible echoes of 'I'm not a witch'.
“‘I Hate Nazis’: Graham Platner Is Defiantly Still Running for Senate – and Leading in the Polls”
EXCLUSIVE: The Maine oysterman sits down with Zeteo to talk about his controversial tattoo and the Democratic establishment's 'continuous' attacks on his campaign.
EXCLUSIVE: The Maine oysterman sits down with Zeteo to talk about his controversial tattoo and the Democratic establishment's 'continuous' attacks on his campaign.
'I Hate Nazis': Graham Platner Is Defiantly Still Running for Senate – and Leading
EXCLUSIVE: The Maine oysterman sits down with Zeteo to talk about his controversial tattoo and the Democratic establishment's 'continuous' attacks on his campaign.
zeteo.com
October 23, 2025 at 10:43 PM
Might end better for him but this has incredible echoes of 'I'm not a witch'.
We've seen a lot of GOP Senate candidates throw winnable races the last decade or so. Looks like Dems might be doing the same in Maine.
I mean, c'mon. TWO Nazi tattoos?!
I mean, c'mon. TWO Nazi tattoos?!
October 22, 2025 at 6:33 PM
We've seen a lot of GOP Senate candidates throw winnable races the last decade or so. Looks like Dems might be doing the same in Maine.
I mean, c'mon. TWO Nazi tattoos?!
I mean, c'mon. TWO Nazi tattoos?!
It's never a good look for internal stuff like this to be seen by a wider audience, but the quotes from the article really don't sound that bitter or chaotic compared to a lot of teams and managers with rather blunt and macho styles.
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
‘Suck it up’: leaked video exposes bitter infighting at Reform UK’s flagship Kent council
Exclusive: Footage reveals Kent leader berating councillors amid rows over budgets and bullying claims
www.theguardian.com
October 18, 2025 at 3:33 PM
It's never a good look for internal stuff like this to be seen by a wider audience, but the quotes from the article really don't sound that bitter or chaotic compared to a lot of teams and managers with rather blunt and macho styles.
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
Just learned the stat that Oxford Street generates 5% of all of London's economic output. That seems huge, and Google finds endless places repeating it but no obvious source of the original stat. Is it legit?
October 13, 2025 at 7:34 PM
Just learned the stat that Oxford Street generates 5% of all of London's economic output. That seems huge, and Google finds endless places repeating it but no obvious source of the original stat. Is it legit?
This is a very pedantic pet peeve, but I don't think anyone not holding office (MP, peer, councillor, etc) can 'Defect'. If someone who used to be an MP but is now just a party member resigns and joins another party that is just a person changing parties.
September 16, 2025 at 1:57 PM
This is a very pedantic pet peeve, but I don't think anyone not holding office (MP, peer, councillor, etc) can 'Defect'. If someone who used to be an MP but is now just a party member resigns and joins another party that is just a person changing parties.
Give a man a fish and he'll be fed for one day. But teach a man to fish and he'll have job safe from ChatGPT for at least the time being.
September 5, 2025 at 2:35 PM
Give a man a fish and he'll be fed for one day. But teach a man to fish and he'll have job safe from ChatGPT for at least the time being.
Must say this seems rather harsh to be a resignation matter. The advisor concludes that she was told by her conveyancer that she didn't need to pay the SDLT surcharge and just didn't read the smallprint they always give that 'This isn't specialist tax advice, take it if you need it'.
NEW: Here is the full verdict from the PM’s ethics advisor.
- Rayner acted with “integrity”, but..
- She did not seek *expert* tax advice
- As such she must take responsibility for failing to pay enough stamp duty
- She therefore fell short of standards and broke ministerial code
- Rayner acted with “integrity”, but..
- She did not seek *expert* tax advice
- As such she must take responsibility for failing to pay enough stamp duty
- She therefore fell short of standards and broke ministerial code
September 5, 2025 at 11:27 AM
Must say this seems rather harsh to be a resignation matter. The advisor concludes that she was told by her conveyancer that she didn't need to pay the SDLT surcharge and just didn't read the smallprint they always give that 'This isn't specialist tax advice, take it if you need it'.
Might be proven wrong, but my gut instinct on Polanski is that he'll be a successful leader for the Green at least for a couple of years. Doubt the public will care that much about the hypnotits stuff (which he is clearly ready for) and a loud left-populist voice probably has more mileage to come.
September 2, 2025 at 9:51 PM
Might be proven wrong, but my gut instinct on Polanski is that he'll be a successful leader for the Green at least for a couple of years. Doubt the public will care that much about the hypnotits stuff (which he is clearly ready for) and a loud left-populist voice probably has more mileage to come.
Not sure which is a bigger miss: That people think Phoebe Buffay would vote Harris despite trusting no establishment idea ever and loving an alternative conspiracy fringe, or that people think Hannibal Lecter, who kills people he finds rude and is in love with an FBI agent, voted Trump?
August 4, 2025 at 8:26 PM
Not sure which is a bigger miss: That people think Phoebe Buffay would vote Harris despite trusting no establishment idea ever and loving an alternative conspiracy fringe, or that people think Hannibal Lecter, who kills people he finds rude and is in love with an FBI agent, voted Trump?
I like how British politicians are arguing over if banning children from some kinds of content on social media is smart or not, meanwhile Australia announces YouTube will be covered by its imminent ban of under 16s from social media platforms entirely!
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
YouTube to be part of Australia's youth social media ban
The Australian government says the world-first ban is aimed at protecting youth from online harm.
www.bbc.co.uk
July 30, 2025 at 9:03 PM
I like how British politicians are arguing over if banning children from some kinds of content on social media is smart or not, meanwhile Australia announces YouTube will be covered by its imminent ban of under 16s from social media platforms entirely!
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
I might be way out but I find the 16% chance Polymarket gives to a US recession in 2025 (most notably, negative Q2 growrth given Q1 was a contraction) a bit mad given the Q2 period was immensely disruptive with the tariff announcements.
German economy shrinks 0.1% in second quarter amid tariff uncertainty https://on.ft.com/4fhD1f6
German economy shrinks 0.1% in second quarter amid tariff uncertainty
April-June estimate compares with 0.4% growth in first three months of 2025
on.ft.com
July 30, 2025 at 8:28 AM
I might be way out but I find the 16% chance Polymarket gives to a US recession in 2025 (most notably, negative Q2 growrth given Q1 was a contraction) a bit mad given the Q2 period was immensely disruptive with the tariff announcements.
Can't believe after Glastonbury the BBC would let another "Free Palestine" incident happen on a livestream.
July 29, 2025 at 12:22 PM
Can't believe after Glastonbury the BBC would let another "Free Palestine" incident happen on a livestream.
The video of the tech CEO and CPO being caught by the Kiss Cam clearly embracing each other like they weren't married to other people is funny, but Kiss Cams are really creepy right? They must pressure awkward friends (or indeed siblings) all the time. We should stop them.
July 17, 2025 at 5:09 PM
The video of the tech CEO and CPO being caught by the Kiss Cam clearly embracing each other like they weren't married to other people is funny, but Kiss Cams are really creepy right? They must pressure awkward friends (or indeed siblings) all the time. We should stop them.
In what looks like it could be a very hard midterms for the GOP, this is definitely flippable.
Shock announcement: NC Senator Thom Tillis just announced he is retiring, less than 24 hours after he opposed starting debate on his party’s mega bill.
His seat is up in 2026, and having it be an open seat sure changes the calculus and Democratic chances of flipping it.
His seat is up in 2026, and having it be an open seat sure changes the calculus and Democratic chances of flipping it.
June 29, 2025 at 6:53 PM
In what looks like it could be a very hard midterms for the GOP, this is definitely flippable.
Cuomo campaign kicking themselves for failing to uncover this dynamite oppo research.
June 29, 2025 at 6:07 PM
Cuomo campaign kicking themselves for failing to uncover this dynamite oppo research.
The NY Dem Primary is now tied on Polymarket. Mamdani did lead in one, but loses by 5-10% in a bunch of others. I think tied is generous to him, but primary polling definitely is difficult and possible the enthusiasm for Mamdani in his voters pushes him over the top.
June 24, 2025 at 7:18 PM
The NY Dem Primary is now tied on Polymarket. Mamdani did lead in one, but loses by 5-10% in a bunch of others. I think tied is generous to him, but primary polling definitely is difficult and possible the enthusiasm for Mamdani in his voters pushes him over the top.
Gah I knew I should have taken profit when they moved to 1/5! Market swung so far without much polling or other solid evidence. But I just assumed that mean my bet would win, even though I'd assumed before that the market was wrong (hence, y'know, placing the bet).
A bit outside my comfort zone, but I reckon the SNP are value in the Hamilton et al by-election at 5/6. Looking at Scottish polls I think Reform are splitting the opposition vote more than taking from the SNP.
June 6, 2025 at 7:13 AM
Gah I knew I should have taken profit when they moved to 1/5! Market swung so far without much polling or other solid evidence. But I just assumed that mean my bet would win, even though I'd assumed before that the market was wrong (hence, y'know, placing the bet).
Starsports offering 8/15 on Trump serving a full 2nd term seems pretty generous, and worth a bet even given the long wait.
May 29, 2025 at 9:59 PM
Starsports offering 8/15 on Trump serving a full 2nd term seems pretty generous, and worth a bet even given the long wait.
Ladbrokes have the Special 'Nigel Farage to NOT become Leader of the Conservative Party'. Does this pay out when he dies?
I presume it pays out on Jan 1 2026, because they also have a Special on him becoming Tory leader this year. But could maybe use clarifying.
I presume it pays out on Jan 1 2026, because they also have a Special on him becoming Tory leader this year. But could maybe use clarifying.
May 29, 2025 at 9:47 PM
Ladbrokes have the Special 'Nigel Farage to NOT become Leader of the Conservative Party'. Does this pay out when he dies?
I presume it pays out on Jan 1 2026, because they also have a Special on him becoming Tory leader this year. But could maybe use clarifying.
I presume it pays out on Jan 1 2026, because they also have a Special on him becoming Tory leader this year. But could maybe use clarifying.
Rather mad the odds on Starmer leaving office this year are down to 9/2 bet price. I'd very happily take 1/5 on him staying.
May 28, 2025 at 9:39 AM
Rather mad the odds on Starmer leaving office this year are down to 9/2 bet price. I'd very happily take 1/5 on him staying.
A bit outside my comfort zone, but I reckon the SNP are value in the Hamilton et al by-election at 5/6. Looking at Scottish polls I think Reform are splitting the opposition vote more than taking from the SNP.
May 7, 2025 at 11:31 AM
A bit outside my comfort zone, but I reckon the SNP are value in the Hamilton et al by-election at 5/6. Looking at Scottish polls I think Reform are splitting the opposition vote more than taking from the SNP.
Not good for Labour, but insanely bad for the Tories. Who are, hard though it is to remember, in opposition against an unloved government!
May 2, 2025 at 3:32 PM
Not good for Labour, but insanely bad for the Tories. Who are, hard though it is to remember, in opposition against an unloved government!