Pip Moss
@quincel.bsky.social
Betting on politics since 2010, trying to separate what I want to happen from what I think will happen.
Not sure which is a bigger miss: That people think Phoebe Buffay would vote Harris despite trusting no establishment idea ever and loving an alternative conspiracy fringe, or that people think Hannibal Lecter, who kills people he finds rude and is in love with an FBI agent, voted Trump?
August 4, 2025 at 8:26 PM
Not sure which is a bigger miss: That people think Phoebe Buffay would vote Harris despite trusting no establishment idea ever and loving an alternative conspiracy fringe, or that people think Hannibal Lecter, who kills people he finds rude and is in love with an FBI agent, voted Trump?
Can't believe after Glastonbury the BBC would let another "Free Palestine" incident happen on a livestream.
July 29, 2025 at 12:22 PM
Can't believe after Glastonbury the BBC would let another "Free Palestine" incident happen on a livestream.
Cuomo campaign kicking themselves for failing to uncover this dynamite oppo research.
June 29, 2025 at 6:07 PM
Cuomo campaign kicking themselves for failing to uncover this dynamite oppo research.
"You want me on that wall. You NEED me on that wall!"
June 26, 2025 at 2:26 PM
"You want me on that wall. You NEED me on that wall!"
Yes, though who knows if it would hold up in a referendum (if one was held).
June 25, 2025 at 9:15 AM
Yes, though who knows if it would hold up in a referendum (if one was held).
There are probably comfortably more Ref/Con voters than Lab/Grn/LD in the seat on current polling, especially in a by-election scenario. And given the respectable Reform performance in 2024 and the context if a by-election does happen it's not a hard tactical call for those voters.
May 13, 2025 at 1:41 PM
There are probably comfortably more Ref/Con voters than Lab/Grn/LD in the seat on current polling, especially in a by-election scenario. And given the respectable Reform performance in 2024 and the context if a by-election does happen it's not a hard tactical call for those voters.
Not good for Labour, but insanely bad for the Tories. Who are, hard though it is to remember, in opposition against an unloved government!
May 2, 2025 at 3:32 PM
Not good for Labour, but insanely bad for the Tories. Who are, hard though it is to remember, in opposition against an unloved government!
Haven't almost all local elections from 2019 been this? Labour made underwhelming gains in 2022-24. The only good result for a main party from 2019 to date was probably the Tories in 2021.
April 26, 2025 at 7:18 PM
Haven't almost all local elections from 2019 been this? Labour made underwhelming gains in 2022-24. The only good result for a main party from 2019 to date was probably the Tories in 2021.
William Hill's logic that it is more likely Farage is Reform leader at the next GE than on 1 Jan 2026 is also curious. I guess he could be deposed and come back, but seems less likely than just 'He remains leader or he doesn't'.
March 23, 2025 at 10:06 AM
William Hill's logic that it is more likely Farage is Reform leader at the next GE than on 1 Jan 2026 is also curious. I guess he could be deposed and come back, but seems less likely than just 'He remains leader or he doesn't'.
I don't want to know why Ladbrokes has suspended bets on a 2027 Rejoin Referendum, do I?
March 23, 2025 at 10:02 AM
I don't want to know why Ladbrokes has suspended bets on a 2027 Rejoin Referendum, do I?
I do think we ended up speaking at cross-purposes, but my read of this exchange was that Stephen is confident Labour is not planning to do this in 2-3 years time. That confidence was what I wanted to understand, because my outsider view of politics was that plans are rarely that firm.
March 20, 2025 at 2:06 PM
I do think we ended up speaking at cross-purposes, but my read of this exchange was that Stephen is confident Labour is not planning to do this in 2-3 years time. That confidence was what I wanted to understand, because my outsider view of politics was that plans are rarely that firm.
YouGov polled their popularity in 2023. It is nowhere near majority support.
February 20, 2025 at 12:24 PM
YouGov polled their popularity in 2023. It is nowhere near majority support.
Classic example of media framing all political actions as partisan disagreement. Is this a good or bad thing for Trump to have done? Do the media have any role in assessing it on its merits independently?
January 25, 2025 at 7:49 PM
Classic example of media framing all political actions as partisan disagreement. Is this a good or bad thing for Trump to have done? Do the media have any role in assessing it on its merits independently?
Shock as extremely obvious bubble bursts. Reeves could still go if some scandal erupts or 'Events' occur, but the 1/2 was a total nonsense. Alas, 11.5 months to wait for this one.
January 13, 2025 at 5:33 PM
Shock as extremely obvious bubble bursts. Reeves could still go if some scandal erupts or 'Events' occur, but the 1/2 was a total nonsense. Alas, 11.5 months to wait for this one.
There's a lot going on here.
December 17, 2024 at 12:52 PM
There's a lot going on here.
Well no clue where we go from here. Is Georgescu even allowed on the ballot? Is there any world where he spins this into 'They tried to stop your decision: Make it clearer this time' or is he just destroyed?
December 6, 2024 at 1:22 PM
Well no clue where we go from here. Is Georgescu even allowed on the ballot? Is there any world where he spins this into 'They tried to stop your decision: Make it clearer this time' or is he just destroyed?
Betting on the next election now is a bit of a mug's game, but I'm really not that confident the centre will hold. Also, using an overly simplified model of Ref+Con=Right and Lab/LD/Grn/SNP=Left we are back to 50:50 already.
December 5, 2024 at 2:56 PM
Betting on the next election now is a bit of a mug's game, but I'm really not that confident the centre will hold. Also, using an overly simplified model of Ref+Con=Right and Lab/LD/Grn/SNP=Left we are back to 50:50 already.
I have a guilty pleasure of browsing awful odds offered by bookies. Anyone want to bet on the exact year the UK holds a referendum on rejoining the EU? Or take 1/4 on there not being one by 2035, equivalent to a bond which pays...2.25% AER...
November 20, 2024 at 11:29 PM
I have a guilty pleasure of browsing awful odds offered by bookies. Anyone want to bet on the exact year the UK holds a referendum on rejoining the EU? Or take 1/4 on there not being one by 2035, equivalent to a bond which pays...2.25% AER...
The counter-argument is her extraordinary record.
November 2, 2024 at 11:23 PM
The counter-argument is her extraordinary record.
Being dogmatic is really risky when betting, but I do find it a bit hard to believe Trump could be close to a popular vote win with these favourables vs Harris'.
On the other hand, Trump had a bigger favourability deficit to Biden (about 20%). Similar size to Clinton (about 8% worse favourability).
On the other hand, Trump had a bigger favourability deficit to Biden (about 20%). Similar size to Clinton (about 8% worse favourability).
October 22, 2024 at 3:34 PM
Being dogmatic is really risky when betting, but I do find it a bit hard to believe Trump could be close to a popular vote win with these favourables vs Harris'.
On the other hand, Trump had a bigger favourability deficit to Biden (about 20%). Similar size to Clinton (about 8% worse favourability).
On the other hand, Trump had a bigger favourability deficit to Biden (about 20%). Similar size to Clinton (about 8% worse favourability).
It also has a great example of a lazy swipe right up front, when it mentions Ed Miliband pushing EVs 'even though no one's buying them'. We have lots of data on car sales and EVs are rapidly growing in market share!
October 8, 2024 at 12:54 PM
It also has a great example of a lazy swipe right up front, when it mentions Ed Miliband pushing EVs 'even though no one's buying them'. We have lots of data on car sales and EVs are rapidly growing in market share!
Great news for Cleverly. Much better prospect now of overtaking Badenoch or even Jenrick too.
October 7, 2024 at 4:12 PM
Great news for Cleverly. Much better prospect now of overtaking Badenoch or even Jenrick too.