Michael Stanaitis
@profstanaitis.bsky.social
Senior Professorial Lecturer in the Department of Global Inquiry at American University's School of International Service.
Musings at the intersection of political economy, modern monetary theory, and global order. Opinions expressed are my own.
Musings at the intersection of political economy, modern monetary theory, and global order. Opinions expressed are my own.
Reposted by Michael Stanaitis
This is an excellent NY Times op-ed by Oren Cass which asks the question: Is Donald Trump the person he's obviously been his entire life, or is he a totally different person who exists only in Oren's imagination?
www.nytimes.com/2025/09/03/o...
www.nytimes.com/2025/09/03/o...
Opinion | This Is the Moment We Find Out if Trump Is for Real
www.nytimes.com
September 3, 2025 at 1:04 PM
This is an excellent NY Times op-ed by Oren Cass which asks the question: Is Donald Trump the person he's obviously been his entire life, or is he a totally different person who exists only in Oren's imagination?
www.nytimes.com/2025/09/03/o...
www.nytimes.com/2025/09/03/o...
Reposted by Michael Stanaitis
1/3
My latest piece for Foreign Affairs argues that the global trading system was broken long before the Trump and Biden administrations set out to reform it. That's because while it is a system that benefits collectively from...
www.foreignaffairs.com/world/global...
My latest piece for Foreign Affairs argues that the global trading system was broken long before the Trump and Biden administrations set out to reform it. That's because while it is a system that benefits collectively from...
www.foreignaffairs.com/world/global...
The Global Trading System Was Already Broken
But there’s a better way to fix it than a reckless tariff regime.
www.foreignaffairs.com
April 21, 2025 at 9:01 AM
1/3
My latest piece for Foreign Affairs argues that the global trading system was broken long before the Trump and Biden administrations set out to reform it. That's because while it is a system that benefits collectively from...
www.foreignaffairs.com/world/global...
My latest piece for Foreign Affairs argues that the global trading system was broken long before the Trump and Biden administrations set out to reform it. That's because while it is a system that benefits collectively from...
www.foreignaffairs.com/world/global...
Reposted by Michael Stanaitis
It seems hard to discuss tariffs without getting hysterical, but Robert Hockett here discusses conditions under which tariffs might make sense and conditions under which they don't.
open.substack.com/pub/robertho...
open.substack.com/pub/robertho...
When Do – and What Kinds of – Tariffs Make Sense?
Introduction
open.substack.com
April 18, 2025 at 3:24 PM
It seems hard to discuss tariffs without getting hysterical, but Robert Hockett here discusses conditions under which tariffs might make sense and conditions under which they don't.
open.substack.com/pub/robertho...
open.substack.com/pub/robertho...
Reposted by Michael Stanaitis
All hat, no cattle:
April 16, 2025 at 6:51 PM
All hat, no cattle:
Reposted by Michael Stanaitis
Branko Milanovic: "The world is thus entering a new era in which the rich countries will follow an unusual two-pronged policy. Having jettisoned neoliberal globalization, they’ll now press ahead even more firmly with a project of domestic neoliberalism."
jacobin.com/2025/03/what...
jacobin.com/2025/03/what...
What Comes After Globalization?
The world as we know it is a product of globalization — and this era of globalization might be coming to a close.
jacobin.com
April 16, 2025 at 1:03 PM
Branko Milanovic: "The world is thus entering a new era in which the rich countries will follow an unusual two-pronged policy. Having jettisoned neoliberal globalization, they’ll now press ahead even more firmly with a project of domestic neoliberalism."
jacobin.com/2025/03/what...
jacobin.com/2025/03/what...
Reposted by Michael Stanaitis
Reposted by Michael Stanaitis
I am now hating on tick-tocks that newspapers always like to do because it makes it seem like this red-light-green-light incompetence on tariffs is just how it’s done and without making the obvious conclusion that the White House is crawling with clowns: www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
The 18 hours that changed Trump’s mind on trade
From Tuesday evening to Wednesday afternoon, Trump and his trade advisors spoke to several Republican lawmakers and top foreign leaders who raised concerns about the faltering global markets.
www.washingtonpost.com
April 10, 2025 at 5:12 AM
I am now hating on tick-tocks that newspapers always like to do because it makes it seem like this red-light-green-light incompetence on tariffs is just how it’s done and without making the obvious conclusion that the White House is crawling with clowns: www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
Reposted by Michael Stanaitis
To the degree bilateral trade balance predicts who “wins” a trade war, advantage lies with the surplus economy, not deficit. China is giving up sales; the US, the deficit country, is giving up goods/services it doesn't produce competitively or at all. @adamposen.bsky.social in @foreignaffairs.com:
Trade Wars Are Easy to Lose
Beijing has escalation dominance in the U.S.-Chinese tariff fight.
www.foreignaffairs.com
April 10, 2025 at 1:40 PM
To the degree bilateral trade balance predicts who “wins” a trade war, advantage lies with the surplus economy, not deficit. China is giving up sales; the US, the deficit country, is giving up goods/services it doesn't produce competitively or at all. @adamposen.bsky.social in @foreignaffairs.com:
Reposted by Michael Stanaitis
It was the bonds and not any alleged Trump plan — he got spooked and rightly so www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...
Trump’s tariffs pushed the U.S. uncomfortably close to a financial crisis before pause
The bond market movements raised fears that investors were ditching U.S. government bonds amid a gathering panic over Trump’s assault on global trade.
www.washingtonpost.com
April 10, 2025 at 5:30 AM
It was the bonds and not any alleged Trump plan — he got spooked and rightly so www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...
Reposted by Michael Stanaitis
A quick note on Trump's new tariff plan. It's 10 percent across the board, 125 percent (!) on China. What's the effective tariff rate? Well, China was 13 percent of imports in 2024, so you might say .13*125+.87*10 = 24.95. But imports from China will fall, so how do we adjust it? 1/
April 10, 2025 at 10:25 AM
A quick note on Trump's new tariff plan. It's 10 percent across the board, 125 percent (!) on China. What's the effective tariff rate? Well, China was 13 percent of imports in 2024, so you might say .13*125+.87*10 = 24.95. But imports from China will fall, so how do we adjust it? 1/
Reposted by Michael Stanaitis
He just testified all morning about the reasons why the tariff policy was going to make America great. Then he checked his phone and realized everything he just said was canceled on Truth Social.
April 9, 2025 at 6:56 PM
He just testified all morning about the reasons why the tariff policy was going to make America great. Then he checked his phone and realized everything he just said was canceled on Truth Social.
Reposted by Michael Stanaitis
The White House crafting its economic policy
April 9, 2025 at 7:05 PM
The White House crafting its economic policy
Reposted by Michael Stanaitis
The Trump administration is reportedly planning to kill a $500 million grant from the Biden admin that would boost steel manufacturing in America’s rust belt, including in JD Vance’s hometown of Middletown, Ohio.
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...
Trump to reportedly cut grant for key US steel project in Vance’s home town
Outcry as CNN reports president to stop funds for program that would have created jobs in Middletown, Ohio
www.theguardian.com
April 9, 2025 at 5:38 PM
The Trump administration is reportedly planning to kill a $500 million grant from the Biden admin that would boost steel manufacturing in America’s rust belt, including in JD Vance’s hometown of Middletown, Ohio.
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...
Reposted by Michael Stanaitis
this is maybe the weekiest wednesday to ever wednesday
April 9, 2025 at 1:49 PM
this is maybe the weekiest wednesday to ever wednesday
Reposted by Michael Stanaitis
US buyers pay for US tariffs.
Tariffs will not cause a US industrial renaissance & will breed dysfunctional political processes.
“Correcting” the trade balance is not a good policy goal & balancing bilateral trade is even sillier.
Read more @kclausing.bsky.social:
www.usnews.com/opinion/arti...
Tariffs will not cause a US industrial renaissance & will breed dysfunctional political processes.
“Correcting” the trade balance is not a good policy goal & balancing bilateral trade is even sillier.
Read more @kclausing.bsky.social:
www.usnews.com/opinion/arti...
April 9, 2025 at 3:03 PM
US buyers pay for US tariffs.
Tariffs will not cause a US industrial renaissance & will breed dysfunctional political processes.
“Correcting” the trade balance is not a good policy goal & balancing bilateral trade is even sillier.
Read more @kclausing.bsky.social:
www.usnews.com/opinion/arti...
Tariffs will not cause a US industrial renaissance & will breed dysfunctional political processes.
“Correcting” the trade balance is not a good policy goal & balancing bilateral trade is even sillier.
Read more @kclausing.bsky.social:
www.usnews.com/opinion/arti...
Reposted by Michael Stanaitis
Reminder: Tariffs aren't paid by other countries.
They're eventually paid by us at the check out line.
And they're regressive — taking a higher percentage out of the paychecks of working people than out of the wealthy.
They're eventually paid by us at the check out line.
And they're regressive — taking a higher percentage out of the paychecks of working people than out of the wealthy.
April 8, 2025 at 11:01 PM
Reminder: Tariffs aren't paid by other countries.
They're eventually paid by us at the check out line.
And they're regressive — taking a higher percentage out of the paychecks of working people than out of the wealthy.
They're eventually paid by us at the check out line.
And they're regressive — taking a higher percentage out of the paychecks of working people than out of the wealthy.
#tariffs #trade #Trump
New thread 🧵👇
For a while now, I have argued that Trump Tariffs 2.0 should be understood mostly as political theater (see linked article).
Today, I want to talk about the three force multipliers of political theater:
1) Sanitizing
2) Sane-washing
3) Supplementing
1/10
New thread 🧵👇
For a while now, I have argued that Trump Tariffs 2.0 should be understood mostly as political theater (see linked article).
Today, I want to talk about the three force multipliers of political theater:
1) Sanitizing
2) Sane-washing
3) Supplementing
1/10
Analyzing Trump Tariffs 2.0
SIS professor Michael Stanaitis provides a framework for understanding tariffs during President Donald Trump's second term.
www.american.edu
April 8, 2025 at 2:19 PM
#tariffs #trade #Trump
Excellent article from FT that illustrates how global economic deconcentration allows for tariff circumvention, thereby limiting the extent to which trade barriers can reduce trade openness and thus address the US trade deficit.
Excellent article from FT that illustrates how global economic deconcentration allows for tariff circumvention, thereby limiting the extent to which trade barriers can reduce trade openness and thus address the US trade deficit.
Can companies exploit differences between Trump’s tariff rates?
Shifting parts of a product’s supply chain may cut charges under ‘rules of origin’ but trying to take advantage comes with risks
on.ft.com
April 8, 2025 at 12:37 PM
Reposted by Michael Stanaitis
I don't think it's being talked about enough that Trump is basing his tariff assaults on Peter Navarro, and Navaro's theories rest on the "research" of "Ron Varo" which is an economist he made up and cited for decades: www.youtube.com/watch?v=oP-e...
Rachel Maddow: Trump crashed the world's markets based on the advice on a fictional economist
YouTube video by Egberto Willies (Politics Done Right)
www.youtube.com
April 7, 2025 at 3:37 PM
I don't think it's being talked about enough that Trump is basing his tariff assaults on Peter Navarro, and Navaro's theories rest on the "research" of "Ron Varo" which is an economist he made up and cited for decades: www.youtube.com/watch?v=oP-e...
Reposted by Michael Stanaitis
The @financialtimes.com is not mincing words
"America’s astonishing act of self-harm"
on.ft.com/3YjtOLV
"America’s astonishing act of self-harm"
on.ft.com/3YjtOLV
April 4, 2025 at 8:29 AM
The @financialtimes.com is not mincing words
"America’s astonishing act of self-harm"
on.ft.com/3YjtOLV
"America’s astonishing act of self-harm"
on.ft.com/3YjtOLV
Reposted by Michael Stanaitis
Reposted by Michael Stanaitis
Oh my God... it was all ChatGPT.
They didn't even care enough about the American economy to do any of the work themselves.
It almost feels... impeachable?
How could sloppily using AI to create domestic policy, then hiding it, be consistent with the Oath of Office?
They didn't even care enough about the American economy to do any of the work themselves.
It almost feels... impeachable?
How could sloppily using AI to create domestic policy, then hiding it, be consistent with the Oath of Office?
Trump’s new tariff math looks a lot like ChatGPT’s
ChatGPT may be the White House’s latest economic advisor.
www.theverge.com
April 4, 2025 at 12:47 AM
Oh my God... it was all ChatGPT.
They didn't even care enough about the American economy to do any of the work themselves.
It almost feels... impeachable?
How could sloppily using AI to create domestic policy, then hiding it, be consistent with the Oath of Office?
They didn't even care enough about the American economy to do any of the work themselves.
It almost feels... impeachable?
How could sloppily using AI to create domestic policy, then hiding it, be consistent with the Oath of Office?
Reposted by Michael Stanaitis
NEW: Our experts have thoughts on the tariffs.
"...lack any principled rationale, & they risk economic catastrophe."
"The president effectively declared war on the world economy on April 2. Retaliation can be expected, reinforcing the carnage."
Read here:
"...lack any principled rationale, & they risk economic catastrophe."
"The president effectively declared war on the world economy on April 2. Retaliation can be expected, reinforcing the carnage."
Read here:
PIIE experts react to Trump’s tariffs announced April 2
President Donald Trump rolled out a new Executive Order Wednesday imposing tariffs of 10 percent or higher on all US trading partners. Here is a sample of PIIE experts’ initial reactions, lightly edit...
www.piie.com
April 3, 2025 at 8:54 PM
NEW: Our experts have thoughts on the tariffs.
"...lack any principled rationale, & they risk economic catastrophe."
"The president effectively declared war on the world economy on April 2. Retaliation can be expected, reinforcing the carnage."
Read here:
"...lack any principled rationale, & they risk economic catastrophe."
"The president effectively declared war on the world economy on April 2. Retaliation can be expected, reinforcing the carnage."
Read here:
Reposted by Michael Stanaitis
Wages will not keep up with the price increases. This is a major setback for working people.
April 3, 2025 at 8:48 PM
Wages will not keep up with the price increases. This is a major setback for working people.