Oswald
@oswald.bsky.social
“We’ll see how [obviously bad thing] turns out in the data” is such a good online position to always hold because it lets you be both incredibly pompous and so late to everything that you can pretend “but that’s obvious” when you turn out to be wrong.
October 15, 2025 at 3:00 PM
“We’ll see how [obviously bad thing] turns out in the data” is such a good online position to always hold because it lets you be both incredibly pompous and so late to everything that you can pretend “but that’s obvious” when you turn out to be wrong.
b438f3ce24f2aa1318128c47fc7a5b61
September 9, 2025 at 10:00 PM
b438f3ce24f2aa1318128c47fc7a5b61
Do not say this in polite company
It feels like we've definitely hit "peak incremental growth" for data center investment.
September 2, 2025 at 4:47 PM
Do not say this in polite company
A brain fully imprisoned by the Laffer curve and handcuffed by tax policy.
Reversing tariffs will be the *easiest* of the tasks ahead for the next president.
Reversing tariffs will be the *easiest* of the tasks ahead for the next president.
".. I’m increasingly [thinking] that high tariffs are here to stay, [and] that a Democrat, say in 2029, is not going to reverse Trump’s tariff policy, because the federal government won’t be able to afford to."
@thehill.com
thehill.com/business/547...
@thehill.com
thehill.com/business/547...
thehill.com
August 29, 2025 at 2:33 PM
A brain fully imprisoned by the Laffer curve and handcuffed by tax policy.
Reversing tariffs will be the *easiest* of the tasks ahead for the next president.
Reversing tariffs will be the *easiest* of the tasks ahead for the next president.
The serious person take on all this is that somehow SCOTUS and other institutions thought the Fed would somehow still be off limits? There was an implicit bet or bargain?
C’mon. You’ll be marks until your last day.
C’mon. You’ll be marks until your last day.
August 26, 2025 at 1:15 AM
The serious person take on all this is that somehow SCOTUS and other institutions thought the Fed would somehow still be off limits? There was an implicit bet or bargain?
C’mon. You’ll be marks until your last day.
C’mon. You’ll be marks until your last day.
A few things in the org structure here stick out as strange to me. It’s beginning to seem like Zuck promised each of these major hires their own fiefdom, and they’re more likely to go to war than accomplish their goals.
NEWS: Meta will announce an AI reorganization today, dividing the Superintelligence division into four units
weighing some cuts or employees moved from AI division
considering licensing closed source models to build new AI products
w/ @elitan.bsky.social
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/19/t...
weighing some cuts or employees moved from AI division
considering licensing closed source models to build new AI products
w/ @elitan.bsky.social
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/19/t...
Mark Zuckerberg Plans to Shake Up Meta’s A.I. Efforts, Again
www.nytimes.com
August 19, 2025 at 5:25 PM
A few things in the org structure here stick out as strange to me. It’s beginning to seem like Zuck promised each of these major hires their own fiefdom, and they’re more likely to go to war than accomplish their goals.
One crank belief I have great fondness for is 10 years of jail time for endorsing development on national park land
One crank plan I do have great fondness for is that the Feds should just build Hong Kong on the Presidio, it's already exempt from local zoning codes.
Can you imagine California, currently the world's fifth-largest economy, if it had not shackled itself to an enormous boulder for no reason
August 18, 2025 at 7:53 PM
One crank belief I have great fondness for is 10 years of jail time for endorsing development on national park land
Trump’s lasting legacy will be America’s transition to state capitalism, and embrace of authoritarian measures to safeguard it.
We’ll have no push back from the normal free enterprise crew, as long as they’re promised a place on top of the plebs in hierarchy…until we have a new president.
We’ll have no push back from the normal free enterprise crew, as long as they’re promised a place on top of the plebs in hierarchy…until we have a new president.
August 15, 2025 at 3:25 PM
Trump’s lasting legacy will be America’s transition to state capitalism, and embrace of authoritarian measures to safeguard it.
We’ll have no push back from the normal free enterprise crew, as long as they’re promised a place on top of the plebs in hierarchy…until we have a new president.
We’ll have no push back from the normal free enterprise crew, as long as they’re promised a place on top of the plebs in hierarchy…until we have a new president.
Accidentally making ourselves into China because we were scared of becoming Denmark
FORTUNE MAG: “.. Trump has seized control of private enterprise’s strategic decision-making and investment policies while invading corporate board rooms ..
“.. This is far more dangerous to capitalism than a city-run grocery store.”
@jeffsonnenfeld.bsky.social
fortune.com/2025/08/12/m...
“.. This is far more dangerous to capitalism than a city-run grocery store.”
@jeffsonnenfeld.bsky.social
fortune.com/2025/08/12/m...
August 13, 2025 at 1:27 PM
Accidentally making ourselves into China because we were scared of becoming Denmark
Spoke with a patent lawyer on an unrelated topic and he told me:
“I know it sounds crazy but I tell clients to never, under any circumstances, discuss the contents of a potential patent with an LLM”
“I know it sounds crazy but I tell clients to never, under any circumstances, discuss the contents of a potential patent with an LLM”
We’ve burnt our Library at Alexandria and are starting all over from here. Only new information/knowledge is valuable. Everything else has been commoditized.
New techniques are to be hoarded and never, ever discussed on the internet.
New techniques are to be hoarded and never, ever discussed on the internet.
August 12, 2025 at 1:03 PM
Spoke with a patent lawyer on an unrelated topic and he told me:
“I know it sounds crazy but I tell clients to never, under any circumstances, discuss the contents of a potential patent with an LLM”
“I know it sounds crazy but I tell clients to never, under any circumstances, discuss the contents of a potential patent with an LLM”
Tbh I’m surprised that this is settling out with revisions from the *supplier’s* side.
I have never seen a bigger gap between end customers and suppliers visions of the future than LLMs/AI.
August 11, 2025 at 3:52 PM
Tbh I’m surprised that this is settling out with revisions from the *supplier’s* side.
oh god oh fuck
*WHITE HOUSE PREPARES FOR TRUMP TO NOMINATE MIRAN TO FED BOARD
August 7, 2025 at 7:31 PM
oh god oh fuck
Beginning to get a little suspicious that we’re missing something on initial claims, broadly speaking.
Initial claims still outperforming residual seasonality, continuing claims not so much. Clear message is weak hiring and longer duration of unemployment as opposed to layoffs (rapid declines in labor demand).
August 7, 2025 at 2:21 PM
Beginning to get a little suspicious that we’re missing something on initial claims, broadly speaking.
Watching Yellowstone for the first time and I think it’s perhaps the greatest show ever made with atrocious politics. Can’t think of another one in its class.
August 4, 2025 at 11:10 PM
Watching Yellowstone for the first time and I think it’s perhaps the greatest show ever made with atrocious politics. Can’t think of another one in its class.
Reposted by Oswald
IDXX move today is a reminder that stocks are options
August 4, 2025 at 10:21 PM
IDXX move today is a reminder that stocks are options
Reposted by Oswald
Featured in the final edition of the Bulletin on Retirement and Disability: Evolving Disability Reporting Patterns and Employment Dynamics During COVID-19
https://www.nber.org/brd/20251/evolving-disability-reporting-patterns-and-employment-dynamics-during-covid-19
https://www.nber.org/brd/20251/evolving-disability-reporting-patterns-and-employment-dynamics-during-covid-19
August 4, 2025 at 5:30 PM
Featured in the final edition of the Bulletin on Retirement and Disability: Evolving Disability Reporting Patterns and Employment Dynamics During COVID-19
https://www.nber.org/brd/20251/evolving-disability-reporting-patterns-and-employment-dynamics-during-covid-19
https://www.nber.org/brd/20251/evolving-disability-reporting-patterns-and-employment-dynamics-during-covid-19
Potentially a once in a lifetime period where markets are being made significantly less efficient on average
August 1, 2025 at 6:19 PM
Potentially a once in a lifetime period where markets are being made significantly less efficient on average
Perhaps the most depressing way of experiencing media that I’ve ever heard, but also, having a hard time remembering the last time a series was truly “worth it.”
Seems to me the golden age of streaming TV has come and gone. We have started a couple of series recently where, after two or three episodes, I've convinced my wife to just fast forward to the last episode. We haven't regretted it.
July 24, 2025 at 4:53 PM
Perhaps the most depressing way of experiencing media that I’ve ever heard, but also, having a hard time remembering the last time a series was truly “worth it.”
Elon’s been quite clearly signaling an attempt to return to legitimacy, and this is so obviously part of it that I cannot enjoy it at all.
If anything, it makes me hate him more.
If anything, it makes me hate him more.
June 5, 2025 at 5:06 PM
Elon’s been quite clearly signaling an attempt to return to legitimacy, and this is so obviously part of it that I cannot enjoy it at all.
If anything, it makes me hate him more.
If anything, it makes me hate him more.
I’m taking the other side of this. He’ll forget this happened by Friday.
Investors/traders need to be prepared for Trump’s anti-TACO tantrum.
May 28, 2025 at 10:02 PM
I’m taking the other side of this. He’ll forget this happened by Friday.
Weird Bluesky debate today where both positions are verifiably, hilariously false.
❌ Video games are expensive media
❌ Labor earns a material portion of incremental profit
❌ Video games are expensive media
❌ Labor earns a material portion of incremental profit
May 23, 2025 at 9:46 PM
Weird Bluesky debate today where both positions are verifiably, hilariously false.
❌ Video games are expensive media
❌ Labor earns a material portion of incremental profit
❌ Video games are expensive media
❌ Labor earns a material portion of incremental profit
