Dan Sanchez
@oriolesreview.bsky.social
Following the progress of the #Orioles organization from the bottom up. Occasional #Mets posts.
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If they do sign two starters, which I think they should, I assume it’ll be an FA and a trade.
November 30, 2025 at 4:01 AM
If they do sign two starters, which I think they should, I assume it’ll be an FA and a trade.
That’d probably be around 70M and put them around 187. Feels a little high but not insane. Maybe they could move Mounty or O’Neill or something.
But the bigger issue there is probably having both Framber and Imai on the books for 5+ years.
But the bigger issue there is probably having both Framber and Imai on the books for 5+ years.
November 30, 2025 at 4:00 AM
That’d probably be around 70M and put them around 187. Feels a little high but not insane. Maybe they could move Mounty or O’Neill or something.
But the bigger issue there is probably having both Framber and Imai on the books for 5+ years.
But the bigger issue there is probably having both Framber and Imai on the books for 5+ years.
Yeah, they should be doing that anyway but it does get harder if they add big, long-term contracts. It’s part of the reason I like Imai. His AAV shouldn’t exceed 25M and he’s young so you can feel comfortable going long on years.
November 30, 2025 at 2:22 AM
Yeah, they should be doing that anyway but it does get harder if they add big, long-term contracts. It’s part of the reason I like Imai. His AAV shouldn’t exceed 25M and he’s young so you can feel comfortable going long on years.
Maybe they don’t acquire 2 legit starters and instead grab a bat, possibly moving some of Mounty/O’Neill’s salary to help.
In any case, it’s hard to see them landing in the $160-180M territory without adding some impact talent. Cautiously optimistic.
In any case, it’s hard to see them landing in the $160-180M territory without adding some impact talent. Cautiously optimistic.
November 30, 2025 at 2:17 AM
Maybe they don’t acquire 2 legit starters and instead grab a bat, possibly moving some of Mounty/O’Neill’s salary to help.
In any case, it’s hard to see them landing in the $160-180M territory without adding some impact talent. Cautiously optimistic.
In any case, it’s hard to see them landing in the $160-180M territory without adding some impact talent. Cautiously optimistic.
I’m sure they know much, much, much more than me. Then again, the same pitcher who was a reliable low-3 ERA high-leverage arm imploded as soon as he put on their uniform despite no demonstrable change in stuff or arsenal, so their authority probably takes a bit of a hit in this instance.
November 30, 2025 at 1:57 AM
I’m sure they know much, much, much more than me. Then again, the same pitcher who was a reliable low-3 ERA high-leverage arm imploded as soon as he put on their uniform despite no demonstrable change in stuff or arsenal, so their authority probably takes a bit of a hit in this instance.
Personally I don’t really care about the final number, I just want them to accomplish what they need to in terms of the roster. From where things stand right now, it does look like they might need to push to 180 to do that, but trades could change things.
November 30, 2025 at 1:37 AM
Personally I don’t really care about the final number, I just want them to accomplish what they need to in terms of the roster. From where things stand right now, it does look like they might need to push to 180 to do that, but trades could change things.
Reposted by Dan Sanchez
Mason Miller had a very comparable five week period to Ryan Helsley's, his just happened in April. C(lase also went through it in April, though his narrative got worse.) Trevor Megill got beat up in June. Helsley's just getting narratived to death because his bad stretch was late season in New York
November 30, 2025 at 1:29 AM
Mason Miller had a very comparable five week period to Ryan Helsley's, his just happened in April. C(lase also went through it in April, though his narrative got worse.) Trevor Megill got beat up in June. Helsley's just getting narratived to death because his bad stretch was late season in New York
That said, if this is a team that can’t go past the mid-100s in payroll then it’s one of several questionable decisions.
November 30, 2025 at 1:19 AM
That said, if this is a team that can’t go past the mid-100s in payroll then it’s one of several questionable decisions.
It wasn’t a big enough investment to be that bad. One year out of three similar to his walk year and it would probably be worth it. He was a high variance player and he bombed in year one. But his expected stats were much better than his results and hopefully he can be healthier going forward.
November 30, 2025 at 1:19 AM
It wasn’t a big enough investment to be that bad. One year out of three similar to his walk year and it would probably be worth it. He was a high variance player and he bombed in year one. But his expected stats were much better than his results and hopefully he can be healthier going forward.
Don’t really see this front office doing that, though they reportedly offered Corbin Burnes a pretty insane average annual value.
I could see them going hard after Imai and beating the field, maybe approaching something like the Fried contract, or offering Snell money to Framber.
I could see them going hard after Imai and beating the field, maybe approaching something like the Fried contract, or offering Snell money to Framber.
November 30, 2025 at 1:13 AM
Don’t really see this front office doing that, though they reportedly offered Corbin Burnes a pretty insane average annual value.
I could see them going hard after Imai and beating the field, maybe approaching something like the Fried contract, or offering Snell money to Framber.
I could see them going hard after Imai and beating the field, maybe approaching something like the Fried contract, or offering Snell money to Framber.
If they are not willing to go higher, the Ryan Mountcastle tender looms, and Tyler O’Neill’s contract looks worse. I’d be a bit confused about their decision-making in that case.
November 30, 2025 at 12:59 AM
If they are not willing to go higher, the Ryan Mountcastle tender looms, and Tyler O’Neill’s contract looks worse. I’d be a bit confused about their decision-making in that case.
So something else must be going on here. Still elite velocity with above average ride, and more ride in 2025 than in 2024 despite the run value on the FB tanking from +3 to -15.
2025 Location+ on the FB was 103, slightly up from 101 in 2024.
All signs point to this as an above average 4S.
2025 Location+ on the FB was 103, slightly up from 101 in 2024.
All signs point to this as an above average 4S.
November 30, 2025 at 12:13 AM
So something else must be going on here. Still elite velocity with above average ride, and more ride in 2025 than in 2024 despite the run value on the FB tanking from +3 to -15.
2025 Location+ on the FB was 103, slightly up from 101 in 2024.
All signs point to this as an above average 4S.
2025 Location+ on the FB was 103, slightly up from 101 in 2024.
All signs point to this as an above average 4S.
Also, I probably overstated the correlation, which is pretty weak. He's down in IVB from his 2022-23 peak, but still higher than early in his career, and he actually had a slight year-over-year uptick.
November 30, 2025 at 12:10 AM
Also, I probably overstated the correlation, which is pretty weak. He's down in IVB from his 2022-23 peak, but still higher than early in his career, and he actually had a slight year-over-year uptick.
DL’s point is that IVB is usually generated by backspin, which is easier to achieve with a higher arm angle, so the correlation here is a little weird.
November 29, 2025 at 11:56 PM
DL’s point is that IVB is usually generated by backspin, which is easier to achieve with a higher arm angle, so the correlation here is a little weird.
IVB is induced vertical break, basically how much a pitch moves up or down relative to the force gravity would exert. A higher IVB means the ball drops less than expected, creating the illusion of ride/rise.
November 29, 2025 at 11:55 PM
IVB is induced vertical break, basically how much a pitch moves up or down relative to the force gravity would exert. A higher IVB means the ball drops less than expected, creating the illusion of ride/rise.
I don’t know, pitching’s weird.
November 29, 2025 at 11:52 PM
I don’t know, pitching’s weird.
I think it’s about downhill plane, yeah.
November 29, 2025 at 11:49 PM
I think it’s about downhill plane, yeah.
He threw some cutters early in the season that graded out well with a positive run value in a small sample. I’m a little surprised he didn’t bring that back out when things went south in Queens. Maybe he was trying to simplify, but that could be a useful pitch to keep guys off the 4S.
November 29, 2025 at 11:20 PM
He threw some cutters early in the season that graded out well with a positive run value in a small sample. I’m a little surprised he didn’t bring that back out when things went south in Queens. Maybe he was trying to simplify, but that could be a useful pitch to keep guys off the 4S.
To be clear, I’m not laughing *at* Norby. Nothing against him. There was just a silly amount of hand-wringing about losing him when the trajectory was always clear. He’s the kind of prospect you pull the trigger on trading for a need every single time.
November 29, 2025 at 11:14 PM
To be clear, I’m not laughing *at* Norby. Nothing against him. There was just a silly amount of hand-wringing about losing him when the trajectory was always clear. He’s the kind of prospect you pull the trigger on trading for a need every single time.
This was always the issue with Norby. Solid contact skills and some gap to gap pop, but not enough athleticism to play up the middle or enough arm for a corner. So where does that leave an average-ish bat? The places where average-ish bats can’t survive.
November 29, 2025 at 11:08 PM
This was always the issue with Norby. Solid contact skills and some gap to gap pop, but not enough athleticism to play up the middle or enough arm for a corner. So where does that leave an average-ish bat? The places where average-ish bats can’t survive.