Nigel Gould-Davies
@nigelgould-davies.bsky.social
Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia, International Institute for Strategic Studies. Contributing editor, Survival. Fmr Ambassador to Belarus. Film-maker. Stalking survivor. Views mine.
Reposted by Nigel Gould-Davies
Good take, IMO. NB: “RU’s behaviour will inevitably grow more risky and aggressive unless it faces unacceptable costs. The question is whether EUR will demonstrate… that it is ready to impose these. Failure to do so will merely postpone, not avert, confrontation.“
Time may no longer be on Russia's side.
US, EU and Chinese policies, and domestic strains, are reshaping Russia's calculus. So it is challenging Western resolve in risker ways. This is certain to escalate unless Europe responds.
www.iiss.org/online-analy...
US, EU and Chinese policies, and domestic strains, are reshaping Russia's calculus. So it is challenging Western resolve in risker ways. This is certain to escalate unless Europe responds.
www.iiss.org/online-analy...
The Russia–Ukraine war has entered a new phase
Recent policy choices by America, Europe and China, and domestic economic strains, are reshaping Russia’s calculus. Since time may no longer be on its side, it is challenging Western resolve in more risky and aggressive ways. This is certain to escalate unless Europe responds.
www.iiss.org
October 12, 2025 at 6:01 PM
Good take, IMO. NB: “RU’s behaviour will inevitably grow more risky and aggressive unless it faces unacceptable costs. The question is whether EUR will demonstrate… that it is ready to impose these. Failure to do so will merely postpone, not avert, confrontation.“
Reposted by Nigel Gould-Davies
This is v good on why time is now on Ukraine's side. We urgently need more thinking that acknowledges how screwed Putin is and what comes next (like here, on Ru escalation, or on what the West must insist is in any peace deal), rather than the usual musings on Russian strength.
Time may no longer be on Russia's side.
US, EU and Chinese policies, and domestic strains, are reshaping Russia's calculus. So it is challenging Western resolve in risker ways. This is certain to escalate unless Europe responds.
www.iiss.org/online-analy...
US, EU and Chinese policies, and domestic strains, are reshaping Russia's calculus. So it is challenging Western resolve in risker ways. This is certain to escalate unless Europe responds.
www.iiss.org/online-analy...
The Russia–Ukraine war has entered a new phase
Recent policy choices by America, Europe and China, and domestic economic strains, are reshaping Russia’s calculus. Since time may no longer be on its side, it is challenging Western resolve in more risky and aggressive ways. This is certain to escalate unless Europe responds.
www.iiss.org
October 11, 2025 at 9:53 PM
This is v good on why time is now on Ukraine's side. We urgently need more thinking that acknowledges how screwed Putin is and what comes next (like here, on Ru escalation, or on what the West must insist is in any peace deal), rather than the usual musings on Russian strength.
Reposted by Nigel Gould-Davies
Very important points raised by @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social: ‘time may no longer be on Russia’s side. The balance of material and technological potential vastly favours its adversaries. Russia can now prevail only [...] by undermining their resolve.’ www.iiss.org/online-analy...
The Russia–Ukraine war has entered a new phase
Recent policy choices by America, Europe and China, and domestic economic strains, are reshaping Russia’s calculus. Since time may no longer be on its side, it is challenging Western resolve in more risky and aggressive ways. This is certain to escalate unless Europe responds.
www.iiss.org
October 9, 2025 at 6:04 AM
Very important points raised by @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social: ‘time may no longer be on Russia’s side. The balance of material and technological potential vastly favours its adversaries. Russia can now prevail only [...] by undermining their resolve.’ www.iiss.org/online-analy...
Time may no longer be on Russia's side.
US, EU and Chinese policies, and domestic strains, are reshaping Russia's calculus. So it is challenging Western resolve in risker ways. This is certain to escalate unless Europe responds.
www.iiss.org/online-analy...
US, EU and Chinese policies, and domestic strains, are reshaping Russia's calculus. So it is challenging Western resolve in risker ways. This is certain to escalate unless Europe responds.
www.iiss.org/online-analy...
The Russia–Ukraine war has entered a new phase
Recent policy choices by America, Europe and China, and domestic economic strains, are reshaping Russia’s calculus. Since time may no longer be on its side, it is challenging Western resolve in more risky and aggressive ways. This is certain to escalate unless Europe responds.
www.iiss.org
October 7, 2025 at 10:58 PM
Time may no longer be on Russia's side.
US, EU and Chinese policies, and domestic strains, are reshaping Russia's calculus. So it is challenging Western resolve in risker ways. This is certain to escalate unless Europe responds.
www.iiss.org/online-analy...
US, EU and Chinese policies, and domestic strains, are reshaping Russia's calculus. So it is challenging Western resolve in risker ways. This is certain to escalate unless Europe responds.
www.iiss.org/online-analy...
Delighted to speak at this truly excellent conference.
#HSF25
#HSF25
Sunday #HSF2025 opened with a pressing topic: Russia and the future of European security order.
European security is about resources and resolve, said Senior Fellow @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social.
“We do have the material capabilities – it’s up to us to summon the political will to act.”
European security is about resources and resolve, said Senior Fellow @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social.
“We do have the material capabilities – it’s up to us to summon the political will to act.”
September 22, 2025 at 5:38 PM
Delighted to speak at this truly excellent conference.
#HSF25
#HSF25
Reposted by Nigel Gould-Davies
"There is currently no sign Putin will scale back his expansive ambitions unless he concludes that continuing to pursue them may call into question the security of his regime."
Sharp and succinct as always from @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social
Sharp and succinct as always from @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social
Russia–Ukraine: peace looks more remote than ever
Russia has not scaled back its ambitions and America will not pressure it to do so. Territorial issues and security guarantees are currently second-order issues. The war remains intractable.
www.iiss.org
August 22, 2025 at 10:09 PM
"There is currently no sign Putin will scale back his expansive ambitions unless he concludes that continuing to pursue them may call into question the security of his regime."
Sharp and succinct as always from @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social
Sharp and succinct as always from @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social
Reposted by Nigel Gould-Davies
Rarely has a major summit been so significant, hastily prepared, and uncertain in outcome. My latest for IISS 👇
www.iiss.org/online-analy...
www.iiss.org/online-analy...
Alaska: moment of truth?
The imminent summit in Alaska could well prove a decisive moment for Europe, Russia, Ukraine and the United States.
www.iiss.org
August 15, 2025 at 10:52 PM
Rarely has a major summit been so significant, hastily prepared, and uncertain in outcome. My latest for IISS 👇
www.iiss.org/online-analy...
www.iiss.org/online-analy...
Reposted by Nigel Gould-Davies
Trump & Putin’s Alaska summit is a “profoundly alarming moment for Europe.” Putin might persuade Trump to accept Russian sovereignty over parts of Ukraine or lift sanctions. That would cause a “really serious” transatlantic alliance split @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social apnews.com/article/euro...
Europe's sidelined leaders urge Trump to defend security interests at his summit with Putin
European Union leaders have urged U.S. President Donald Trump to defend their security interests at Friday's summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin on the war in Ukraine.
apnews.com
August 12, 2025 at 3:59 PM
Trump & Putin’s Alaska summit is a “profoundly alarming moment for Europe.” Putin might persuade Trump to accept Russian sovereignty over parts of Ukraine or lift sanctions. That would cause a “really serious” transatlantic alliance split @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social apnews.com/article/euro...
An exceptionally fluid moment in international relations. I am more cautiously optimistic than many. 🧵👇 /1
www.iiss.org/online-analy...
www.iiss.org/online-analy...
Russia’s bad month of diplomacy
Trump’s relationship with Putin has never been worse. If NATO implements its new spending commitments, and Trump his sanctions, time may no longer be on Russia’s side.
www.iiss.org
July 22, 2025 at 8:32 AM
An exceptionally fluid moment in international relations. I am more cautiously optimistic than many. 🧵👇 /1
www.iiss.org/online-analy...
www.iiss.org/online-analy...
Personal news, which I rarely share here.
My stalker was sentenced to 6 years for a "campaign of psychological cruelty". She has a "long and truly appalling" criminal record, and has spent her life "harming others".
My deepest thanks to everyone who has supported me through this ordeal.
My stalker was sentenced to 6 years for a "campaign of psychological cruelty". She has a "long and truly appalling" criminal record, and has spent her life "harming others".
My deepest thanks to everyone who has supported me through this ordeal.
July 16, 2025 at 10:22 PM
Personal news, which I rarely share here.
My stalker was sentenced to 6 years for a "campaign of psychological cruelty". She has a "long and truly appalling" criminal record, and has spent her life "harming others".
My deepest thanks to everyone who has supported me through this ordeal.
My stalker was sentenced to 6 years for a "campaign of psychological cruelty". She has a "long and truly appalling" criminal record, and has spent her life "harming others".
My deepest thanks to everyone who has supported me through this ordeal.
Becky Anderson asked me about Trump's latest outburst against Putin.
"As a fellow Brit, you'll be familiar with the phrase 'all mouth and no trousers'."
"As a fellow Brit, you'll be familiar with the phrase 'all mouth and no trousers'."
May 26, 2025 at 6:33 PM
Becky Anderson asked me about Trump's latest outburst against Putin.
"As a fellow Brit, you'll be familiar with the phrase 'all mouth and no trousers'."
"As a fellow Brit, you'll be familiar with the phrase 'all mouth and no trousers'."
Reposted by Nigel Gould-Davies
If you need a bit of a primer on this electronic war stuff, I've got you covered: www.wired.com/story/electr...
The Invisible Russia-Ukraine Battlefield
In Russia’s war against Ukraine, electronic warfare, including signal-jamming, anti-drone weapons, and innovative protections for critical military systems, has become a key piece of the conflict.
www.wired.com
May 26, 2025 at 10:34 AM
If you need a bit of a primer on this electronic war stuff, I've got you covered: www.wired.com/story/electr...
Never thought I'd see a potato shortage in Belarus.
‼️ “Lukashenko explained the potato shortage in Belarus by its sales in Russia”
Potatoes have reportedly begun to “begun to disappear in local stores”
🥔
“Lukashenko noted his readiness to "endure a month" without potatoes.”
www.interfax.ru/world/1024691
Potatoes have reportedly begun to “begun to disappear in local stores”
🥔
“Lukashenko noted his readiness to "endure a month" without potatoes.”
www.interfax.ru/world/1024691
May 8, 2025 at 5:56 PM
Never thought I'd see a potato shortage in Belarus.
Personal news, which I rarely share here.
Yesterday my stalker was found guilty on all four counts in a unanimous verdict. My deepest thanks to all who have supported me through this 18-month ordeal. I don't have the words to express my gratitude.
Yesterday my stalker was found guilty on all four counts in a unanimous verdict. My deepest thanks to all who have supported me through this 18-month ordeal. I don't have the words to express my gratitude.
May 8, 2025 at 9:39 AM
Personal news, which I rarely share here.
Yesterday my stalker was found guilty on all four counts in a unanimous verdict. My deepest thanks to all who have supported me through this 18-month ordeal. I don't have the words to express my gratitude.
Yesterday my stalker was found guilty on all four counts in a unanimous verdict. My deepest thanks to all who have supported me through this 18-month ordeal. I don't have the words to express my gratitude.
Reposted by Nigel Gould-Davies
"Some in Washington argue that America can conduct a ‘reverse Kissinger’ that detaches Moscow from its quasi-alliance with Beijing. The analogy is historically uninformed and strategically illiterate."
@nigelgould-davies.bsky.social on US "diplomatic surrender"
www.iiss.org/online-analy...
@nigelgould-davies.bsky.social on US "diplomatic surrender"
www.iiss.org/online-analy...
America’s strategic diplomatic surrender
America is pre-emptively ceding fundamental and long-held positions to Russia in the hope of ending a war it is not fighting. This is likely to make it less, not more, secure.
www.iiss.org
February 24, 2025 at 8:26 PM
"Some in Washington argue that America can conduct a ‘reverse Kissinger’ that detaches Moscow from its quasi-alliance with Beijing. The analogy is historically uninformed and strategically illiterate."
@nigelgould-davies.bsky.social on US "diplomatic surrender"
www.iiss.org/online-analy...
@nigelgould-davies.bsky.social on US "diplomatic surrender"
www.iiss.org/online-analy...
What is stopping Europe from taking Russian Central Bank assets, frozen since February 2022?
#OpEd Giving Russian assets to Ukraine would help both Ukraine rebuild and Europe rearm.
@nigelgould-davies.bsky.social asks what's stopping Europe taking this simple step.
@nigelgould-davies.bsky.social asks what's stopping Europe taking this simple step.
Here’s Why Europe Should Donate Frozen Russian Assets to Ukraine Right Now - The Moscow Times
Opinion | In February 2022, Western governments froze Russian Central Bank assets in response to Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine.
www.themoscowtimes.com
April 16, 2025 at 7:55 AM
What is stopping Europe from taking Russian Central Bank assets, frozen since February 2022?
Who is doing research on prospects for more US LNG exports to Europe? Technical/econ/pol etc dimensions.
January 21, 2025 at 9:54 AM
Who is doing research on prospects for more US LNG exports to Europe? Technical/econ/pol etc dimensions.
Europe fears US will withdraw commitments and resources from Ukraine, and perhaps the continent. But it can craft a diplomatic strategy to avert this. What would it look like? /1
www.iiss.org/online-analy...
www.iiss.org/online-analy...
January 11, 2025 at 1:01 AM
Europe fears US will withdraw commitments and resources from Ukraine, and perhaps the continent. But it can craft a diplomatic strategy to avert this. What would it look like? /1
www.iiss.org/online-analy...
www.iiss.org/online-analy...
EU importing (now record levels of) LNG from Russia. More important still, importing plenty of Russian oil, via Indian refineries, despite its Russian oil embargo. US can replace this.
SitRep - 21/12/24 - A record Russian LNG imports by the EU.
An overview of the daily events in Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The EU set a new record: it imported a record of Russian LNG. This is what drives the Russian war machine.
REPOST=appreciated
1/X
An overview of the daily events in Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The EU set a new record: it imported a record of Russian LNG. This is what drives the Russian war machine.
REPOST=appreciated
1/X
December 22, 2024 at 8:33 AM
EU importing (now record levels of) LNG from Russia. More important still, importing plenty of Russian oil, via Indian refineries, despite its Russian oil embargo. US can replace this.
Spot on. The costs of permanent insecurity, or worse, will be far greater.
“Citizens of NATO member states should "accept to make sacrifices" such as cuts to their pensions, health and security systems in order to boost defence spending and ensure long-term security in Europe, the head of the military alliance said on Thursday.”
www.euronews.com/my-europe/20...
www.euronews.com/my-europe/20...
NATO chief urges citizens to 'make sacrifices' to up defence spending
The 32 NATO allies are currently in discussion to increase the defence spending benchmark from the current 2% of GDP. #EuropeNews
www.euronews.com
December 12, 2024 at 5:14 PM
Spot on. The costs of permanent insecurity, or worse, will be far greater.
Anyone here in Bucharest this weekend?
December 5, 2024 at 9:25 AM
Anyone here in Bucharest this weekend?
Reposted by Nigel Gould-Davies
New investigation with my @financialtimes.com colleagues: Russia recruits Yemeni mercenaries to fight in Ukraine on.ft.com/3CIJP6p
Russia recruits Yemeni mercenaries to fight in Ukraine
[FREE TO READ] Mysterious Houthi-linked company duping men into joining Moscow’s war machine
on.ft.com
November 24, 2024 at 12:17 PM
New investigation with my @financialtimes.com colleagues: Russia recruits Yemeni mercenaries to fight in Ukraine on.ft.com/3CIJP6p
"Whatever it takes."
Europe's population: c. 500m
Europe's military help for Ukraine: c. EUR 50bn
= EUR 100 per citizen
Divide by 33 months of war = EUR 3.0
=> Europe's military help = 1 cup of coffee per citizen per month.
We can do more.
Europe's population: c. 500m
Europe's military help for Ukraine: c. EUR 50bn
= EUR 100 per citizen
Divide by 33 months of war = EUR 3.0
=> Europe's military help = 1 cup of coffee per citizen per month.
We can do more.
November 23, 2024 at 7:53 PM
"Whatever it takes."
Europe's population: c. 500m
Europe's military help for Ukraine: c. EUR 50bn
= EUR 100 per citizen
Divide by 33 months of war = EUR 3.0
=> Europe's military help = 1 cup of coffee per citizen per month.
We can do more.
Europe's population: c. 500m
Europe's military help for Ukraine: c. EUR 50bn
= EUR 100 per citizen
Divide by 33 months of war = EUR 3.0
=> Europe's military help = 1 cup of coffee per citizen per month.
We can do more.
Reposted by Nigel Gould-Davies
There has been a concerted, systematic effort at mapping and sometimes sabotaging water infra in West Sweden, local police have shown.
It is suspected to be going on nation-wide.
Follows pattern of no thefts though there are expensive stuff, always manage to evade CCTV, usually professional.
It is suspected to be going on nation-wide.
Follows pattern of no thefts though there are expensive stuff, always manage to evade CCTV, usually professional.
November 23, 2024 at 7:26 AM
There has been a concerted, systematic effort at mapping and sometimes sabotaging water infra in West Sweden, local police have shown.
It is suspected to be going on nation-wide.
Follows pattern of no thefts though there are expensive stuff, always manage to evade CCTV, usually professional.
It is suspected to be going on nation-wide.
Follows pattern of no thefts though there are expensive stuff, always manage to evade CCTV, usually professional.