James Crabtree
@jamescrabtree.bsky.social
Analyst & writer. Billionaire Raj author. ecfr fellow. foreign policy columnist. Ex: IISS, FT, LKY School, UK Govt. LSE / Harvard.
Reposted by James Crabtree
Very interesting piece from @jamescrabtree.bsky.social on how Trump's desire for the Nobel Peace Prize has upsides - as in the push for the Gaza ceasefire - yet is also being studied in Islamabad, Beijing and beyond as a diplomatic opportunity worth gaming out
foreignpolicy.com/2025/10/10/t...
foreignpolicy.com/2025/10/10/t...
Trump’s Nobel Peace Prize Obsession Isn’t Over
His vanity is reshaping geopolitics and opens a way to game U.S. policy.
foreignpolicy.com
October 12, 2025 at 9:20 PM
Very interesting piece from @jamescrabtree.bsky.social on how Trump's desire for the Nobel Peace Prize has upsides - as in the push for the Gaza ceasefire - yet is also being studied in Islamabad, Beijing and beyond as a diplomatic opportunity worth gaming out
foreignpolicy.com/2025/10/10/t...
foreignpolicy.com/2025/10/10/t...
Reposted by James Crabtree
🌏 What are the primary threats to undersea cables in today’s security environment and how can Europe & the Indo-Pacific work together to enhance monitoring & protection of this infrastructure? These questions were addressed at panel III of our Manilna conference.
@ecfr.eu @jamescrabtree.bsky.social
@ecfr.eu @jamescrabtree.bsky.social
September 25, 2025 at 7:54 AM
🌏 What are the primary threats to undersea cables in today’s security environment and how can Europe & the Indo-Pacific work together to enhance monitoring & protection of this infrastructure? These questions were addressed at panel III of our Manilna conference.
@ecfr.eu @jamescrabtree.bsky.social
@ecfr.eu @jamescrabtree.bsky.social
🚨 EMERGENCY WEBINAR 🚨
With Nirupama Rao, Tom Wright, Lindsey Ford, Manisha Reuter, and me!
📅 India: 7:30 PM - 8:30 PM IST
Europe: 4:00 PM - 5:00 PM CEST
UK: 3:00 PM - 4:00 PM BST
USA: 10:00 AM - 11:00 AM EDT
🔗 Register
eu01web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
@ecfr.eu
With Nirupama Rao, Tom Wright, Lindsey Ford, Manisha Reuter, and me!
📅 India: 7:30 PM - 8:30 PM IST
Europe: 4:00 PM - 5:00 PM CEST
UK: 3:00 PM - 4:00 PM BST
USA: 10:00 AM - 11:00 AM EDT
🔗 Register
eu01web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
@ecfr.eu
September 23, 2025 at 12:11 PM
🚨 EMERGENCY WEBINAR 🚨
With Nirupama Rao, Tom Wright, Lindsey Ford, Manisha Reuter, and me!
📅 India: 7:30 PM - 8:30 PM IST
Europe: 4:00 PM - 5:00 PM CEST
UK: 3:00 PM - 4:00 PM BST
USA: 10:00 AM - 11:00 AM EDT
🔗 Register
eu01web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
@ecfr.eu
With Nirupama Rao, Tom Wright, Lindsey Ford, Manisha Reuter, and me!
📅 India: 7:30 PM - 8:30 PM IST
Europe: 4:00 PM - 5:00 PM CEST
UK: 3:00 PM - 4:00 PM BST
USA: 10:00 AM - 11:00 AM EDT
🔗 Register
eu01web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
@ecfr.eu
Reposted by James Crabtree
Trump’s attacks on India have prompted New Delhi to reassess its diplomatic strategy – in his latest paper, @jamescrabtree.bsky.social discusses India’s back-up plan in a shifting world and the emerging potential for EU-India relations.
➡️ buff.ly/ncSI3Cb
➡️ buff.ly/ncSI3Cb
September 16, 2025 at 7:55 AM
Trump’s attacks on India have prompted New Delhi to reassess its diplomatic strategy – in his latest paper, @jamescrabtree.bsky.social discusses India’s back-up plan in a shifting world and the emerging potential for EU-India relations.
➡️ buff.ly/ncSI3Cb
➡️ buff.ly/ncSI3Cb
Reposted by James Crabtree
American hostility towards India should not drive New Delhi to shift away from the West entirely. Europe provides a promising pathway—one that can help India balance its risks without rapidly escalating tensions with China, writes @jamescrabtree.bsky.social
https://bit.ly/3JWyGlU
https://bit.ly/3JWyGlU
Pivot to Europe: India’s back-up plan in Trump’s world
Tensions with Trump will prompt India to seek rapprochement with Beijing, but the underlying competitive dynamics in China-India relations are unlikely to change. Against this backdrop…
ecfr.eu
September 11, 2025 at 7:16 AM
American hostility towards India should not drive New Delhi to shift away from the West entirely. Europe provides a promising pathway—one that can help India balance its risks without rapidly escalating tensions with China, writes @jamescrabtree.bsky.social
https://bit.ly/3JWyGlU
https://bit.ly/3JWyGlU
🚨 NEW REPORT ALERT 🚨 New paper for @ecfr on India's global position as its ties with the US crumble.
Basic argument is that Europe, not Russia or China, is the next best option for a rebalance.
Basic argument is that Europe, not Russia or China, is the next best option for a rebalance.
Trump’s attacks on India have prompted New Delhi to reassess its diplomatic strategy, leading to more hedging and an emphasis on what it calls “multi-alignment”, writes
@jamescrabtree.bsky.social @ecfrasia.bsky.social @stiftungmercator.bsky.social
https://bit.ly/3JUZ4Ne
@jamescrabtree.bsky.social @ecfrasia.bsky.social @stiftungmercator.bsky.social
https://bit.ly/3JUZ4Ne
Pivot to Europe: India’s back-up plan in Trump’s world
Tensions with Trump will prompt India to seek rapprochement with Beijing, but the underlying competitive dynamics in China-India relations are unlikely to change. Against this backdrop…
ecfr.eu
September 10, 2025 at 10:19 AM
🚨 NEW REPORT ALERT 🚨 New paper for @ecfr on India's global position as its ties with the US crumble.
Basic argument is that Europe, not Russia or China, is the next best option for a rebalance.
Basic argument is that Europe, not Russia or China, is the next best option for a rebalance.
Reposted by James Crabtree
I DID NOT need this quote from @jamescrabtree.bsky.social's newsletter.
(or maybe I did, I'm not sure. In any case, it's an excellent newsletter)
(or maybe I did, I'm not sure. In any case, it's an excellent newsletter)
August 31, 2025 at 5:22 PM
I DID NOT need this quote from @jamescrabtree.bsky.social's newsletter.
(or maybe I did, I'm not sure. In any case, it's an excellent newsletter)
(or maybe I did, I'm not sure. In any case, it's an excellent newsletter)
Reposted by James Crabtree
This @gideonrachman.bsky.social podcast with @jamescrabtree.bsky.social is a remarkable indictment of Trump & his wrecking years and years of US Indo-Pacific diplomacy. Astounding how he is allowed to shoot his own country in the foot.
Taiwan’s Trump problem
Are the sands shifting for US policy in the Indo-Pacific region?
www.ft.com
August 30, 2025 at 8:27 PM
This @gideonrachman.bsky.social podcast with @jamescrabtree.bsky.social is a remarkable indictment of Trump & his wrecking years and years of US Indo-Pacific diplomacy. Astounding how he is allowed to shoot his own country in the foot.
Latest @foreignpolicy.com. Xi and Putin will court Modi this weekend. I doubt very much India will take the bait, for good reason. Thoughts welcome as ever.
Gift link — foreignpolicy.com/2025/08/27/i...
Gift link — foreignpolicy.com/2025/08/27/i...
August 28, 2025 at 6:38 PM
Latest @foreignpolicy.com. Xi and Putin will court Modi this weekend. I doubt very much India will take the bait, for good reason. Thoughts welcome as ever.
Gift link — foreignpolicy.com/2025/08/27/i...
Gift link — foreignpolicy.com/2025/08/27/i...
Reposted by James Crabtree
💥Rotterdam (Europe’s largest port) is preparing for a potential conflict with Russia by reserving space for military ships.
Another great spot by @andybounds.bsky.social
www.ft.com/content/0c42...
Another great spot by @andybounds.bsky.social
www.ft.com/content/0c42...
Europe’s biggest port readies for potential war with Russia
Rotterdam has started reserving space for Nato supply ships and planning military exercises
www.ft.com
July 8, 2025 at 5:27 AM
💥Rotterdam (Europe’s largest port) is preparing for a potential conflict with Russia by reserving space for military ships.
Another great spot by @andybounds.bsky.social
www.ft.com/content/0c42...
Another great spot by @andybounds.bsky.social
www.ft.com/content/0c42...
Reposted by James Crabtree
the correct political economy take on Oasis is that their career perfectly mirrored left-neoliberalism: 1994-2009 was the period between Blair's abandoning of Clause Four, and the dawn of post-GFC austerity
July 5, 2025 at 7:36 AM
the correct political economy take on Oasis is that their career perfectly mirrored left-neoliberalism: 1994-2009 was the period between Blair's abandoning of Clause Four, and the dawn of post-GFC austerity
Reposted by James Crabtree
In Warsaw for two days of discussion at the @ecfr.eu council meeting, kicked off by @radek-sikorski.bsky.social, eloquent on "security Europe".
June 27, 2025 at 11:37 AM
In Warsaw for two days of discussion at the @ecfr.eu council meeting, kicked off by @radek-sikorski.bsky.social, eloquent on "security Europe".
The lesson of global oligarchy: if billionaires fight with autocrats, the autocrats win.
My latest in @foreignpolicy.com on Musk's grim road ahead if he doesn't back down.
Gift Link — foreignpolicy.com/2025/06/09/e...
My latest in @foreignpolicy.com on Musk's grim road ahead if he doesn't back down.
Gift Link — foreignpolicy.com/2025/06/09/e...
June 10, 2025 at 3:47 PM
The lesson of global oligarchy: if billionaires fight with autocrats, the autocrats win.
My latest in @foreignpolicy.com on Musk's grim road ahead if he doesn't back down.
Gift Link — foreignpolicy.com/2025/06/09/e...
My latest in @foreignpolicy.com on Musk's grim road ahead if he doesn't back down.
Gift Link — foreignpolicy.com/2025/06/09/e...
Reposted by James Crabtree
Appreciate the thoughtful book review of Tides of Fortune this weekend in @financialtimes.com. Thanks @jamescrabtree.bsky.social!
www.ft.com/content/47d6...
www.ft.com/content/47d6...
China, Russia and the remaking of the Eurasian supercontinent
Three books offer a guide to shifting power in the region and what it means for the US and Europe
www.ft.com
May 5, 2025 at 1:27 PM
Appreciate the thoughtful book review of Tides of Fortune this weekend in @financialtimes.com. Thanks @jamescrabtree.bsky.social!
www.ft.com/content/47d6...
www.ft.com/content/47d6...
Reposted by James Crabtree
As the confrontation between India and Pakistan escalates, Europeans will likely have to take clear sides and re-assess the role of Chinese military technology in future wars—which could be much closer to home, write @jankaoertel.bsky.social & @jamescrabtree.bsky.social
Escalation in South Asia: Europe’s core interests amid crisis between India and Pakistan
This week, tensions between India and Pakistan have led to direct combat and fatalities. As the confrontation escalates, Europeans will likely have to take clear sides and re-assess the role of…
buff.ly
May 9, 2025 at 1:46 PM
As the confrontation between India and Pakistan escalates, Europeans will likely have to take clear sides and re-assess the role of Chinese military technology in future wars—which could be much closer to home, write @jankaoertel.bsky.social & @jamescrabtree.bsky.social
5 thought on 🇮🇳🇵🇰 for 🇪🇺 from @jankaoertel.bsky.social & me, for @ecfr.eu.
1. 🇵🇰 military action overnight marks new escalation, with drone attacks on major cities. Likely 🇮🇳 will feel compelled to respond again to maintain escalation dominance, as @shashj.bsky.social notes
ecfr.eu/article/esca...
1. 🇵🇰 military action overnight marks new escalation, with drone attacks on major cities. Likely 🇮🇳 will feel compelled to respond again to maintain escalation dominance, as @shashj.bsky.social notes
ecfr.eu/article/esca...
Escalation in South Asia: Europe’s core interests amid crisis between India and Pakistan
This week, tensions between India and Pakistan have led to direct combat and fatalities. As the confrontation escalates, Europeans will likely have to take clear sides and re-assess the role of Chines...
ecfr.eu
May 9, 2025 at 5:06 PM
5 thought on 🇮🇳🇵🇰 for 🇪🇺 from @jankaoertel.bsky.social & me, for @ecfr.eu.
1. 🇵🇰 military action overnight marks new escalation, with drone attacks on major cities. Likely 🇮🇳 will feel compelled to respond again to maintain escalation dominance, as @shashj.bsky.social notes
ecfr.eu/article/esca...
1. 🇵🇰 military action overnight marks new escalation, with drone attacks on major cities. Likely 🇮🇳 will feel compelled to respond again to maintain escalation dominance, as @shashj.bsky.social notes
ecfr.eu/article/esca...
Reposted by James Crabtree
You have to wonder what Mark Carney's other two wishes were after rubbing that bottle
April 28, 2025 at 1:08 PM
You have to wonder what Mark Carney's other two wishes were after rubbing that bottle
Essay in @nytimes just up on Trump's tariff attack on "factory Asia" — and why it should now raise serious questions about long-term future of US security guarantees in the Indo-Pacific too.
www.nytimes.com/2025/04/22/o...
www.nytimes.com/2025/04/22/o...
April 22, 2025 at 7:15 AM
Essay in @nytimes just up on Trump's tariff attack on "factory Asia" — and why it should now raise serious questions about long-term future of US security guarantees in the Indo-Pacific too.
www.nytimes.com/2025/04/22/o...
www.nytimes.com/2025/04/22/o...
In Delhi this week to speak at a few interesting events. A balmy 41 degrees yesterday. Good to see Stalinism is alive and well.
April 9, 2025 at 8:56 AM
In Delhi this week to speak at a few interesting events. A balmy 41 degrees yesterday. Good to see Stalinism is alive and well.
Looking forward to my marquee panel in Delhi today. Come and marvel as I manage a mere six panelists in 50 minutes, which by local standards, should be a doddle.
April 9, 2025 at 8:55 AM
Looking forward to my marquee panel in Delhi today. Come and marvel as I manage a mere six panelists in 50 minutes, which by local standards, should be a doddle.
Reposted by James Crabtree
As EU-India talks continue in New Delhi, security and defence cooperation is in focus. Could India join PESCO? With global uncertainty rising, a new EU-India defence partnership is on the table.
Read more from @jamescrabtree.bsky.social 📝
🔗 buff.ly/4h08hhX
Read more from @jamescrabtree.bsky.social 📝
🔗 buff.ly/4h08hhX
In the wake of Trump: The EU’s chance to redefine its India relationship
As Ursula von der Leyen prepares to bring her team of European commissioners to New Delhi this week, she should seize the moment to deepen ties with her Indian counterparts. With Donald Trump in the…
buff.ly
February 28, 2025 at 4:45 PM
As EU-India talks continue in New Delhi, security and defence cooperation is in focus. Could India join PESCO? With global uncertainty rising, a new EU-India defence partnership is on the table.
Read more from @jamescrabtree.bsky.social 📝
🔗 buff.ly/4h08hhX
Read more from @jamescrabtree.bsky.social 📝
🔗 buff.ly/4h08hhX
New @asiasociety.org report from me for on Trump / Southeast Asia.
Most in SEA want US to keep playing a role in Asia, fearing PRC domination. But as one official put it to me recently: if we now must provide tribute to the US, maybe we should stick with the tributary system we already know?
Most in SEA want US to keep playing a role in Asia, fearing PRC domination. But as one official put it to me recently: if we now must provide tribute to the US, maybe we should stick with the tributary system we already know?
How will Trump 2.0 impact U.S.-China-Southeast Asia ties?
In a new paper, @jamescrabtree.bsky.social analyzes the Trump administration's approach to Southeast Asia, regional views on security & economic risks, and how China may capitalize.⬇️
In a new paper, @jamescrabtree.bsky.social analyzes the Trump administration's approach to Southeast Asia, regional views on security & economic risks, and how China may capitalize.⬇️
U.S.–China–Southeast Asia Relations in a Second Trump Administration
James Crabtree looks at how a second Trump administration will impact U.S.-Southeast Asia relations and the implications for regional stability and economic growth.
asiasociety.org
March 10, 2025 at 11:16 AM
New @asiasociety.org report from me for on Trump / Southeast Asia.
Most in SEA want US to keep playing a role in Asia, fearing PRC domination. But as one official put it to me recently: if we now must provide tribute to the US, maybe we should stick with the tributary system we already know?
Most in SEA want US to keep playing a role in Asia, fearing PRC domination. But as one official put it to me recently: if we now must provide tribute to the US, maybe we should stick with the tributary system we already know?
A glorious sunny day in Berlin, & a v timely @ecfr.eu
meeting on Japan / Europe ties, and what to do variously with our strategic competitors, not just in Beijing but Washington.
Excellent first panel with Michito Tsuruoka, Eva Pejsova, & Alexandra Sakaki, all chaired by Elli-Katharina Pohlkamp.
meeting on Japan / Europe ties, and what to do variously with our strategic competitors, not just in Beijing but Washington.
Excellent first panel with Michito Tsuruoka, Eva Pejsova, & Alexandra Sakaki, all chaired by Elli-Katharina Pohlkamp.
March 6, 2025 at 8:27 AM
A glorious sunny day in Berlin, & a v timely @ecfr.eu
meeting on Japan / Europe ties, and what to do variously with our strategic competitors, not just in Beijing but Washington.
Excellent first panel with Michito Tsuruoka, Eva Pejsova, & Alexandra Sakaki, all chaired by Elli-Katharina Pohlkamp.
meeting on Japan / Europe ties, and what to do variously with our strategic competitors, not just in Beijing but Washington.
Excellent first panel with Michito Tsuruoka, Eva Pejsova, & Alexandra Sakaki, all chaired by Elli-Katharina Pohlkamp.
Off to Berlin to chair a timely @ecfr.eu Asia event about Europe and Japan. I'm told that if I hear a faint whoosh on arrival at the airport, I shouldn't be alarmed - just the sound of hitherto stiff German fiscal taps being turned on.....
March 5, 2025 at 4:56 PM
Off to Berlin to chair a timely @ecfr.eu Asia event about Europe and Japan. I'm told that if I hear a faint whoosh on arrival at the airport, I shouldn't be alarmed - just the sound of hitherto stiff German fiscal taps being turned on.....