James Crabtree
jamescrabtree.bsky.social
James Crabtree
@jamescrabtree.bsky.social
Analyst & writer. Billionaire Raj author. ecfr fellow. foreign policy columnist. Ex: IISS, FT, LKY School, UK Govt. LSE / Harvard.
For India, it poses procurement questions; for Europe, it brings home a debate about the advanced capabilities that China is able and willing to provide for—and co-develop with—its partners, including Russia.

ecfr.eu/article/esca...
Escalation in South Asia: Europe’s core interests amid crisis between India and Pakistan
This week, tensions between India and Pakistan have led to direct combat and fatalities. As the confrontation escalates, Europeans will likely have to take clear sides and re-assess the role of Chines...
ecfr.eu
May 9, 2025 at 5:06 PM
As the first fatal combat interaction of modern Chinese and European fighter jets, this event demonstrated Chinese technological advances in radar and missile capabilities.
May 9, 2025 at 5:06 PM
(4) China. A Chinese-made J-10C aircraft operated by Pakistan, equipped with PL-15 long-range air-to-air missiles, conducted its first-known air-to-air kill in live combat by shooting down a France-produced Indian Rafale.

www.reuters.com/world/pakist...
Exclusive: Pakistan's Chinese-made jet brought down two Indian fighter aircraft, US officials say
A top Chinese-made Pakistani fighter shot down at least two Indian military aircraft on Wednesday, two U.S. officials told Reuters, marking a major milestone for Beijing's advanced fighter jet.
www.reuters.com
May 9, 2025 at 5:06 PM
But clearer positioning will be necessary as the crisis further escalates. Put bluntly European nations will likely prioritise burgeoning relationship with India over concerns about worsening ties with Pakistan.
May 9, 2025 at 5:06 PM
3. Europe so far has played it safe calling for moderation from "both sides". But beyond the US, most of the actual diplomacy is being done by Middle Eastern powers, not the west. But....

www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/gymnich...
Gymnich: press remarks by High Representative Kaja Kallas after the meeting
Good afternoon, everybody.    It is great to be here in Warsaw again and this Gymnich format meeting where we had very frank, very open discussions on very many issues that are topical today.   Of cou...
www.eeas.europa.eu
May 9, 2025 at 5:06 PM
2. The military challenge in managing escalation relates to (Turkish) drones, which are out of the ordinary for Indo-Pak clashes. It's hard to know what counts as escalation, and both sides want to avoid precendents.

www.ndtv.com/world-news/o...
Turkey's Role In Focus After Pakistan's Military Escalation Against India
Pakistan's massive escalation along the Line of Control (LoC) in Jammu and Kashmir and the International Border in other states had a Turkish link.
www.ndtv.com
May 9, 2025 at 5:06 PM
"In the long run, Mr. Trump’s actions raise the possibility of the United States ceding its dominant position in Asia-Pacific security. Why, after all, would an increasingly inward-looking America defend a region where it has a reduced economic stake?"
April 22, 2025 at 7:15 AM