András Tóth-Czifra
@minczifra.bsky.social
Political & security analyst. 🇪🇺🇭🇺🇺🇸. FPRI Eurasia fellow, Bear Market Brief contributor. Ex-CEPA, ESI. Posts about 🇷🇺, 🇪🇺, illiberalism and its limits. Posts reflect my own views.
Здесь вам не Toth.
www.noyardstick.com
minczifra.substack.com
Здесь вам не Toth.
www.noyardstick.com
minczifra.substack.com
Pinned
András Tóth-Czifra
@minczifra.bsky.social
· Feb 27
The Kremlin's Balancing Act : The War's Impact On Regional Power Dynamics - Foreign Policy Research Institute
Following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Russian government accelerated the preexisting trend of centralizing control over regional power and economic assets. This centralization drive h...
www.fpri.org
You can now read my latest report for @fpri.bsky.social about the war's impact on center-region power dynamics in Russia, originally written at the end of 2024, but now updated with new figures and conclusions.
www.fpri.org/article/2025...
www.fpri.org/article/2025...
So who's going to be at ASEEES this week?
November 18, 2025 at 3:51 PM
So who's going to be at ASEEES this week?
Indeed this is the stuff Mamdani could and should do within days of taking office. Not only are these good policies, they are good politics too.
I really hope he goes gung-ho on this: expand Open Streets, drastically reduce free parking, pour the proceeds into transit improvements, etc.
I really hope he goes gung-ho on this: expand Open Streets, drastically reduce free parking, pour the proceeds into transit improvements, etc.
This is the stuff Mamdani can just do, including a bunch of stuff that would make buses faster, even if not free www.thecity.nyc/2025/11/17/s...
Mamdani Election Signals Lane Change for Stymied Street Overhauls
From a flubbed Fordham Road bus lane to downshifted bike lanes, the new mayor has a chance to revive projects to improve the city’s streetscape.
www.thecity.nyc
November 18, 2025 at 3:29 AM
Indeed this is the stuff Mamdani could and should do within days of taking office. Not only are these good policies, they are good politics too.
I really hope he goes gung-ho on this: expand Open Streets, drastically reduce free parking, pour the proceeds into transit improvements, etc.
I really hope he goes gung-ho on this: expand Open Streets, drastically reduce free parking, pour the proceeds into transit improvements, etc.
Reposted by András Tóth-Czifra
Ticking time-bomb 💣
Russian companies are spending 40% of their profits paying just the interest on their debt, according to a Kremlin think tank.
Source: @themoscowtimes.com
www.moscowtimes.ru/2025/11/17/r...
Russian companies are spending 40% of their profits paying just the interest on their debt, according to a Kremlin think tank.
Source: @themoscowtimes.com
www.moscowtimes.ru/2025/11/17/r...
Российские компании отдают почти 40% прибыли на проценты по долгам - Русская служба The Moscow Times
www.moscowtimes.ru
November 17, 2025 at 8:09 PM
Ticking time-bomb 💣
Russian companies are spending 40% of their profits paying just the interest on their debt, according to a Kremlin think tank.
Source: @themoscowtimes.com
www.moscowtimes.ru/2025/11/17/r...
Russian companies are spending 40% of their profits paying just the interest on their debt, according to a Kremlin think tank.
Source: @themoscowtimes.com
www.moscowtimes.ru/2025/11/17/r...
Reposted by András Tóth-Czifra
💥💰Hungary’s MOL oil company may buy Gazprom’s 11.3% stake in Serbia’s NIS oil firm — now under U.S. sanctions — so the Russian side (Gazprom Neft) would appear only as a minority owner (44.9%). This move could help Moscow effectively evade the Trump admin's sanctions: www.reuters.com/business/ene...
November 17, 2025 at 5:46 PM
💥💰Hungary’s MOL oil company may buy Gazprom’s 11.3% stake in Serbia’s NIS oil firm — now under U.S. sanctions — so the Russian side (Gazprom Neft) would appear only as a minority owner (44.9%). This move could help Moscow effectively evade the Trump admin's sanctions: www.reuters.com/business/ene...
Reposted by András Tóth-Czifra
Russia published its budget report for Q3 of 2025. Military spending is not slowing down. In Q3, it was 38% higher than last year (3.6 trillion rubles in Q3, 11.9 trillion rubles so far for the year). Good news: Federal recruitment data is back!
November 17, 2025 at 5:04 PM
Russia published its budget report for Q3 of 2025. Military spending is not slowing down. In Q3, it was 38% higher than last year (3.6 trillion rubles in Q3, 11.9 trillion rubles so far for the year). Good news: Federal recruitment data is back!
Reposted by András Tóth-Czifra
New on Substack: on the unending headache that is the municipal reform; why eccentric governors had a bad month and will this hurt them; and some commentary on a further assortment of regional news from the past weeks.
minczifra.substack.com/p/on-the-ong...
minczifra.substack.com/p/on-the-ong...
On the ongoing municipal reform, flamboyant governors and others
Thoughts about political developments in Russia over the past weeks.
minczifra.substack.com
November 14, 2025 at 4:09 AM
New on Substack: on the unending headache that is the municipal reform; why eccentric governors had a bad month and will this hurt them; and some commentary on a further assortment of regional news from the past weeks.
minczifra.substack.com/p/on-the-ong...
minczifra.substack.com/p/on-the-ong...
Reposted by András Tóth-Czifra
New on Substack: on the unending headache that is the municipal reform; why eccentric governors had a bad month and will this hurt them; and some commentary on a further assortment of regional news from the past weeks.
minczifra.substack.com/p/on-the-ong...
minczifra.substack.com/p/on-the-ong...
On the ongoing municipal reform, flamboyant governors and others
Thoughts about political developments in Russia over the past weeks.
minczifra.substack.com
November 14, 2025 at 4:09 AM
New on Substack: on the unending headache that is the municipal reform; why eccentric governors had a bad month and will this hurt them; and some commentary on a further assortment of regional news from the past weeks.
minczifra.substack.com/p/on-the-ong...
minczifra.substack.com/p/on-the-ong...
The position voiced Orbán's government several times over the past week has been that it's completely irrelevant what anyone other than Trump, including Rubio, says about the agreement, because Trump told them otherwise behind closed doors.
💥So it seems Viktor Orbán and his government have been lying for a week about their White House deal with Donald Trump — Marco Rubio now personally confirms Hungary only got a one-year exemption from US sanctions on Russian oil and gas, not the “indefinite” one Orbán claimed.
November 13, 2025 at 1:22 PM
The position voiced Orbán's government several times over the past week has been that it's completely irrelevant what anyone other than Trump, including Rubio, says about the agreement, because Trump told them otherwise behind closed doors.
Reposted by András Tóth-Czifra
💥So it seems Viktor Orbán and his government have been lying for a week about their White House deal with Donald Trump — Marco Rubio now personally confirms Hungary only got a one-year exemption from US sanctions on Russian oil and gas, not the “indefinite” one Orbán claimed.
November 13, 2025 at 1:18 PM
💥So it seems Viktor Orbán and his government have been lying for a week about their White House deal with Donald Trump — Marco Rubio now personally confirms Hungary only got a one-year exemption from US sanctions on Russian oil and gas, not the “indefinite” one Orbán claimed.
Reposted by András Tóth-Czifra
"Without support from energy markets, there is no apparent way for Russia to avoid recession. Stagflation can’t last forever when a country is burning through its working-age men, slashing productive investment, and unable to halt inflation"
@ruboyinthehood.bsky.social
ridl.io/russia-s-sta...
@ruboyinthehood.bsky.social
ridl.io/russia-s-sta...
Russia’s Stagflation Trap – Riddle Russia
Nicholas Trickett with the economic summary of the week (November 10−14)
ridl.io
November 13, 2025 at 12:44 PM
"Without support from energy markets, there is no apparent way for Russia to avoid recession. Stagflation can’t last forever when a country is burning through its working-age men, slashing productive investment, and unable to halt inflation"
@ruboyinthehood.bsky.social
ridl.io/russia-s-sta...
@ruboyinthehood.bsky.social
ridl.io/russia-s-sta...
The situation is the same, if not worse, with regional finances. Aggregate deficits were at 724.8 billion in September (at this point in 2024 there was still an aggregate surplus) and the last quarter is usually the most expenditure-heavy. Problems are pretty uneven of course ridl.io/state-of-unr...
November 12, 2025 at 6:26 PM
The situation is the same, if not worse, with regional finances. Aggregate deficits were at 724.8 billion in September (at this point in 2024 there was still an aggregate surplus) and the last quarter is usually the most expenditure-heavy. Problems are pretty uneven of course ridl.io/state-of-unr...
Reposted by András Tóth-Czifra
Russia's latest budget figures (January–October) are out, and it's becoming increasingly clear that the budget deficit will be higher than expected. After 10 months, 80% of the budget has already been spent — compared to the normal rate of 74%.
November 11, 2025 at 5:10 PM
Russia's latest budget figures (January–October) are out, and it's becoming increasingly clear that the budget deficit will be higher than expected. After 10 months, 80% of the budget has already been spent — compared to the normal rate of 74%.
The first time Russian authorities limit access to mobile internet *until the end of the war*. The outage, with no functioning whitelist, will be implemented in parts of the Ulyanovsk Region, for now, but likely be extended to other regions in the future.
istories.media/news/2025/11...
istories.media/news/2025/11...
Власти ограничили работу мобильного интернета до конца войны в некоторых частях Ульяновска и области
Это первое постоянное отключение интернета в России
istories.media
November 11, 2025 at 1:19 PM
The first time Russian authorities limit access to mobile internet *until the end of the war*. The outage, with no functioning whitelist, will be implemented in parts of the Ulyanovsk Region, for now, but likely be extended to other regions in the future.
istories.media/news/2025/11...
istories.media/news/2025/11...
The same feeling I had in Hungary this summer as people from all walks of life, on sweltering trains stopped in the middle of nowhere, were jointly sending Fidesz and especially transit minister Janos Lazar to hell.
Had to fly across the US today, changing planes, and found pleasant camaraderie...everyone wishing one another luck making their flights
November 9, 2025 at 9:25 PM
The same feeling I had in Hungary this summer as people from all walks of life, on sweltering trains stopped in the middle of nowhere, were jointly sending Fidesz and especially transit minister Janos Lazar to hell.
It takes a very specific combination of hobbies and professional interests to see a goshawk and go "oh yes, the federal institution for intervention-minded officials!"
November 8, 2025 at 8:06 PM
It takes a very specific combination of hobbies and professional interests to see a goshawk and go "oh yes, the federal institution for intervention-minded officials!"
It was a pleasure to talk Russian regional budgets this week with @calummackenzie.bsky.social for Swiss radio.
(Politologe has always been my favorite and most correct descriptor!)
www.srf.ch/audio/echo-d...
(Politologe has always been my favorite and most correct descriptor!)
www.srf.ch/audio/echo-d...
Russland rekrutiert neu permanent Soldaten
In Russland können junge Männer neu das ganze Jahr über zum Wehrdienst eingezogen werden, statt wie bisher nur innerhalb von zwei fixen Zeiträumen pro Jahr. Gleichzeitig senken mehrere Regionen aber d...
www.srf.ch
November 8, 2025 at 7:15 PM
It was a pleasure to talk Russian regional budgets this week with @calummackenzie.bsky.social for Swiss radio.
(Politologe has always been my favorite and most correct descriptor!)
www.srf.ch/audio/echo-d...
(Politologe has always been my favorite and most correct descriptor!)
www.srf.ch/audio/echo-d...
Reposted by András Tóth-Czifra
Turns out, Orban wasn't telling the truth: the exemption he got is for a year. But this is all he needs - elections take place in April. It's still a win for him.
But much will depend on how else Trump plans to support him and if this is enough to kickstart the economy
www.bbc.com/news/article...
But much will depend on how else Trump plans to support him and if this is enough to kickstart the economy
www.bbc.com/news/article...
Trump gives Hungary one-year exemption from Russian energy sanctions
The opt-out comes despite the US increasing pressure on allies to sever economic ties with Russia.
www.bbc.com
November 8, 2025 at 1:13 PM
Turns out, Orban wasn't telling the truth: the exemption he got is for a year. But this is all he needs - elections take place in April. It's still a win for him.
But much will depend on how else Trump plans to support him and if this is enough to kickstart the economy
www.bbc.com/news/article...
But much will depend on how else Trump plans to support him and if this is enough to kickstart the economy
www.bbc.com/news/article...
And now the propaganda rag "Magyar Nemzet" (along with other pro-Orban media) shared - then removed - a map containing the personal data, including the address, of the opposition supporters and activists whose data was stolen. Clear and brazen intimidation tactics.
444.hu/2025/11/07/n...
444.hu/2025/11/07/n...
November 8, 2025 at 2:01 AM
And now the propaganda rag "Magyar Nemzet" (along with other pro-Orban media) shared - then removed - a map containing the personal data, including the address, of the opposition supporters and activists whose data was stolen. Clear and brazen intimidation tactics.
444.hu/2025/11/07/n...
444.hu/2025/11/07/n...
Orban says Trump granted oil & gas imports via Druzhba and Turkish Stream full exemption from sanctions and the Rosatom's Paks expansion isn't going to be sanctioned either. Hungary is going to buy nuclear fuel from Westinghouse and explore procuring small modular reactors.
A win for Orban, if so.
A win for Orban, if so.
November 7, 2025 at 9:14 PM
Orban says Trump granted oil & gas imports via Druzhba and Turkish Stream full exemption from sanctions and the Rosatom's Paks expansion isn't going to be sanctioned either. Hungary is going to buy nuclear fuel from Westinghouse and explore procuring small modular reactors.
A win for Orban, if so.
A win for Orban, if so.
The weekend is here and the new brief is out! Read about Pokrovsk, the Russian car industry, debates triggered by the economic slowdown, Tver's new governor and more!
Subscribe to have it in your inbox every week.
Subscribe to have it in your inbox every week.
Russian troops attempt to encircle Ukrainian forces in #Pokrovsk. Read more in the latest Brief.
Closing the circle
Russian troops attempt to encircle Ukrainian forces in Pokrovsk
bearmarketbrief.substack.com
November 7, 2025 at 8:41 PM
The weekend is here and the new brief is out! Read about Pokrovsk, the Russian car industry, debates triggered by the economic slowdown, Tver's new governor and more!
Subscribe to have it in your inbox every week.
Subscribe to have it in your inbox every week.
I always know a year has passed when Shoigu again calls for the industrialization of / building new cities in Siberia.
www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/11/06/s...
www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/11/06/s...
Shoigu Calls for ‘New Industrialization’ in Siberia to Revive Russia’s East - The Moscow Times
Russia aims to turn Siberia into the center of a new industrialization push and attract workers eastward, Security Council Secretary and former Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said Thursday.
www.themoscowtimes.com
November 7, 2025 at 7:35 PM
I always know a year has passed when Shoigu again calls for the industrialization of / building new cities in Siberia.
www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/11/06/s...
www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/11/06/s...
From Orban claiming that every government in Europe is liberal & non-Christian except for his, to Trump saying that he is friends with every European leader because they do everything he asks them to & that some European countries had "no crime" 10 years ago, this presser is already a wild ride.
November 7, 2025 at 6:25 PM
From Orban claiming that every government in Europe is liberal & non-Christian except for his, to Trump saying that he is friends with every European leader because they do everything he asks them to & that some European countries had "no crime" 10 years ago, this presser is already a wild ride.
Reposted by András Tóth-Czifra
”…state-backed loans account for about a fifth of growth in Russia’s bank lending since 2020. She noted that higher amount of subsidised credit requires higher policy rates to keep inflation in check.”
#Russia 🇷🇺
#Russia 🇷🇺
BOFIT Weekly Review 43/2025
Russian economic growth remains sluggish and subject to structural imbalances
Read more 🔗 www.bofit.fi/en/monitorin...
#Russia #economy #BOFITWeeklyReview
Russian economic growth remains sluggish and subject to structural imbalances
Read more 🔗 www.bofit.fi/en/monitorin...
#Russia #economy #BOFITWeeklyReview
November 7, 2025 at 2:45 PM
”…state-backed loans account for about a fifth of growth in Russia’s bank lending since 2020. She noted that higher amount of subsidised credit requires higher policy rates to keep inflation in check.”
#Russia 🇷🇺
#Russia 🇷🇺
Reposted by András Tóth-Czifra
Russian oil and gas revenues in October 2025 were 888.6 billion rubles ($10.9 billion), or 27% below October 2024.
November 7, 2025 at 11:07 AM
Russian oil and gas revenues in October 2025 were 888.6 billion rubles ($10.9 billion), or 27% below October 2024.