Anton Barbashin
@abarbashin.bsky.social
Russia foreign and domestic politics. Editorial Director at ridl.io
Pinned
The long game: How Europe can outlast Russia’s war of attrition
While Trump lingers indecisively and Moscow bets on Europe falling apart, the only logical strategy for the EU is to double down on its support for Kyiv…
ecfr.eu
"Given limited US support for its Ukraine policy, the EU’s most pragmatic strategy is to brace for a conflict that could last an additional 2–4 years and formulate a five-year plan"
@ecfr.eu
ecfr.eu/article/the-...
@ecfr.eu
ecfr.eu/article/the-...
The problem of succession is the most critical question for Russia’s regime. But it is not solely one of who replaces Putin himself. It is also a question of succession across most of Russia’s sprawling imperium of institutional offices.
ridl.io/russia-s-sec...
ridl.io/russia-s-sec...
Russia’s Securitized Boomerism – Riddle Russia
Julian G. Waller discusses the problem of generational sclerosis within Russia’s elite and new efforts at belated reform
ridl.io
November 10, 2025 at 1:20 PM
The problem of succession is the most critical question for Russia’s regime. But it is not solely one of who replaces Putin himself. It is also a question of succession across most of Russia’s sprawling imperium of institutional offices.
ridl.io/russia-s-sec...
ridl.io/russia-s-sec...
Reposted by Anton Barbashin
The EU’s most pragmatic strategy is to brace for a conflict that could last an additional 2–4 years, writes @abarbashin.bsky.social @ecfreuropeansec.bsky.social
https://bit.ly/47qeUbV
https://bit.ly/47qeUbV
The long game: How Europe can outlast Russia’s war of attrition
While Trump lingers indecisively and Moscow bets on Europe falling apart, the only logical strategy for the EU is to double down on its support for Kyiv…
bit.ly
November 8, 2025 at 9:05 AM
The EU’s most pragmatic strategy is to brace for a conflict that could last an additional 2–4 years, writes @abarbashin.bsky.social @ecfreuropeansec.bsky.social
https://bit.ly/47qeUbV
https://bit.ly/47qeUbV
🇷🇺 tourists spend a lot of money in EU. Instead of giving them a finger - add an “X euro” to a visa fees that would go to a EU fund destined for rebuilding 🇺🇦.
A. You don’t shut the door on people for what 🇷🇺 government does and they can’t stop;
B. You get extra money for 🇺🇦
A. You don’t shut the door on people for what 🇷🇺 government does and they can’t stop;
B. You get extra money for 🇺🇦
November 7, 2025 at 7:22 PM
🇷🇺 tourists spend a lot of money in EU. Instead of giving them a finger - add an “X euro” to a visa fees that would go to a EU fund destined for rebuilding 🇺🇦.
A. You don’t shut the door on people for what 🇷🇺 government does and they can’t stop;
B. You get extra money for 🇺🇦
A. You don’t shut the door on people for what 🇷🇺 government does and they can’t stop;
B. You get extra money for 🇺🇦
Two Riddle Russia authors became foreign agents today.
I strongly recommend to subscribe and read their analysis:
@aivengo96.bsky.social
ridl.io/auth/alexey-...
Margarita Zavadskaya
ridl.io/auth/margari...
I strongly recommend to subscribe and read their analysis:
@aivengo96.bsky.social
ridl.io/auth/alexey-...
Margarita Zavadskaya
ridl.io/auth/margari...
November 7, 2025 at 2:21 PM
Two Riddle Russia authors became foreign agents today.
I strongly recommend to subscribe and read their analysis:
@aivengo96.bsky.social
ridl.io/auth/alexey-...
Margarita Zavadskaya
ridl.io/auth/margari...
I strongly recommend to subscribe and read their analysis:
@aivengo96.bsky.social
ridl.io/auth/alexey-...
Margarita Zavadskaya
ridl.io/auth/margari...
Kremlin idealogues keep producing papers that aim to convince Russian senior leadership that Russians are ready to take any burden and lose their lives for the Russian State and it survival provided more indoctrination is done. Then anything goes
ridl.io/heavy-stroke...
ridl.io/heavy-stroke...
Heavy Strokes from the Kremlin’s Chief Ideologue – Riddle Russia
Andrey Pertsev sums up the political week (November 3−7)
ridl.io
November 7, 2025 at 1:34 PM
Kremlin idealogues keep producing papers that aim to convince Russian senior leadership that Russians are ready to take any burden and lose their lives for the Russian State and it survival provided more indoctrination is done. Then anything goes
ridl.io/heavy-stroke...
ridl.io/heavy-stroke...
Reposted by Anton Barbashin
"Russia’s narrow upper-elite of Gen-Xers will inherit the regime in due course, but they will be competing with suddenly promoted nouveau aristocrats connected by familial ties to the current leadership core"
ridl.io/russia-s-sec...
ridl.io/russia-s-sec...
Russia’s Securitized Boomerism – Riddle Russia
Julian G. Waller discusses the problem of generational sclerosis within Russia’s elite and new efforts at belated reform
ridl.io
November 6, 2025 at 8:22 AM
"Russia’s narrow upper-elite of Gen-Xers will inherit the regime in due course, but they will be competing with suddenly promoted nouveau aristocrats connected by familial ties to the current leadership core"
ridl.io/russia-s-sec...
ridl.io/russia-s-sec...
Reposted by Anton Barbashin
If Trump does in fact restart nuclear tests, Russia will have to follow while China will benefit the most. And that would d eventually cascade into many others detonating and upgrading.
ridl.io/us-nuclear-t...
ridl.io/us-nuclear-t...
US Nuclear Tests Will Seal the Demise of Arms Control – Riddle Russia
Maxim Starchak examines how Trump could ignite a nuclear arms race, drawing in Russia, China, and other nuclear powers whether they like it or not
ridl.io
November 5, 2025 at 10:19 AM
If Trump does in fact restart nuclear tests, Russia will have to follow while China will benefit the most. And that would d eventually cascade into many others detonating and upgrading.
ridl.io/us-nuclear-t...
ridl.io/us-nuclear-t...
Reposted by Anton Barbashin
While Trump lingers indecisively and Moscow bets on Europe falling apart, the only logical strategy for the EU is to double down on its support for Kyiv, writes @abarbashin.bsky.social @ecfreuropeansec.bsky.social
https://bit.ly/47qeUbV
https://bit.ly/47qeUbV
The long game: How Europe can outlast Russia’s war of attrition
While Trump lingers indecisively and Moscow bets on Europe falling apart, the only logical strategy for the EU is to double down on its support for Kyiv…
bit.ly
November 6, 2025 at 9:02 AM
While Trump lingers indecisively and Moscow bets on Europe falling apart, the only logical strategy for the EU is to double down on its support for Kyiv, writes @abarbashin.bsky.social @ecfreuropeansec.bsky.social
https://bit.ly/47qeUbV
https://bit.ly/47qeUbV
"Russia’s narrow upper-elite of Gen-Xers will inherit the regime in due course, but they will be competing with suddenly promoted nouveau aristocrats connected by familial ties to the current leadership core"
ridl.io/russia-s-sec...
ridl.io/russia-s-sec...
Russia’s Securitized Boomerism – Riddle Russia
Julian G. Waller discusses the problem of generational sclerosis within Russia’s elite and new efforts at belated reform
ridl.io
November 6, 2025 at 8:22 AM
"Russia’s narrow upper-elite of Gen-Xers will inherit the regime in due course, but they will be competing with suddenly promoted nouveau aristocrats connected by familial ties to the current leadership core"
ridl.io/russia-s-sec...
ridl.io/russia-s-sec...
Reposted by Anton Barbashin
"Given limited US support for its Ukraine policy, the EU’s most pragmatic strategy is to brace for a conflict that could last an additional 2–4 years and formulate a five-year plan"
@ecfr.eu
ecfr.eu/article/the-...
@ecfr.eu
ecfr.eu/article/the-...
The long game: How Europe can outlast Russia’s war of attrition
While Trump lingers indecisively and Moscow bets on Europe falling apart, the only logical strategy for the EU is to double down on its support for Kyiv…
ecfr.eu
November 5, 2025 at 10:41 AM
"Given limited US support for its Ukraine policy, the EU’s most pragmatic strategy is to brace for a conflict that could last an additional 2–4 years and formulate a five-year plan"
@ecfr.eu
ecfr.eu/article/the-...
@ecfr.eu
ecfr.eu/article/the-...
"Given limited US support for its Ukraine policy, the EU’s most pragmatic strategy is to brace for a conflict that could last an additional 2–4 years and formulate a five-year plan"
@ecfr.eu
ecfr.eu/article/the-...
@ecfr.eu
ecfr.eu/article/the-...
The long game: How Europe can outlast Russia’s war of attrition
While Trump lingers indecisively and Moscow bets on Europe falling apart, the only logical strategy for the EU is to double down on its support for Kyiv…
ecfr.eu
November 5, 2025 at 10:41 AM
"Given limited US support for its Ukraine policy, the EU’s most pragmatic strategy is to brace for a conflict that could last an additional 2–4 years and formulate a five-year plan"
@ecfr.eu
ecfr.eu/article/the-...
@ecfr.eu
ecfr.eu/article/the-...
If Trump does in fact restart nuclear tests, Russia will have to follow while China will benefit the most. And that would d eventually cascade into many others detonating and upgrading.
ridl.io/us-nuclear-t...
ridl.io/us-nuclear-t...
US Nuclear Tests Will Seal the Demise of Arms Control – Riddle Russia
Maxim Starchak examines how Trump could ignite a nuclear arms race, drawing in Russia, China, and other nuclear powers whether they like it or not
ridl.io
November 5, 2025 at 10:19 AM
If Trump does in fact restart nuclear tests, Russia will have to follow while China will benefit the most. And that would d eventually cascade into many others detonating and upgrading.
ridl.io/us-nuclear-t...
ridl.io/us-nuclear-t...
Kremlin strategists under Sergei Kiriyenko had eyed ousting the heads of annexed territories of Ukraine, taking out "local leaders" and supplementing them with fully loyal technocrats
ridl.io/the-return-o...
ridl.io/the-return-o...
The Return of Shoigu – Riddle Russia
Andrey Pertsev sums up the political week (October 27−31)
ridl.io
November 4, 2025 at 5:19 PM
Kremlin strategists under Sergei Kiriyenko had eyed ousting the heads of annexed territories of Ukraine, taking out "local leaders" and supplementing them with fully loyal technocrats
ridl.io/the-return-o...
ridl.io/the-return-o...
Reposted by Anton Barbashin
Russia regional budgets for this year and 2026 show how the war is making it very hard fore regions to keep the income at the levels of 2022-2023, let alone pre-war levels
@minczifra.bsky.social
ridl.io/state-of-unr...
@minczifra.bsky.social
ridl.io/state-of-unr...
State of Unreadiness – Riddle Russia
Andras Toth-Czifra on Russian Regional Budgets in 2025−26
ridl.io
October 27, 2025 at 9:08 AM
Russia regional budgets for this year and 2026 show how the war is making it very hard fore regions to keep the income at the levels of 2022-2023, let alone pre-war levels
@minczifra.bsky.social
ridl.io/state-of-unr...
@minczifra.bsky.social
ridl.io/state-of-unr...
Reposted by Anton Barbashin
Russia is increasingly tapping into Middle East mercenary market for the war in Ukraine offering generous pay and Russian passports.
If the war in Ukraine prolongs (and it will), Russia would need extra men ready to kill for $$$
ridl.io/the-middle-e...
If the war in Ukraine prolongs (and it will), Russia would need extra men ready to kill for $$$
ridl.io/the-middle-e...
The Middle East on the Ukrainian Front: From One-Off Actions to Systematic Recruitment – Riddle Russia
Nikita Smagin on how the Middle East is emerging as a promising manpower pool for Russia
ridl.io
October 31, 2025 at 8:00 PM
Russia is increasingly tapping into Middle East mercenary market for the war in Ukraine offering generous pay and Russian passports.
If the war in Ukraine prolongs (and it will), Russia would need extra men ready to kill for $$$
ridl.io/the-middle-e...
If the war in Ukraine prolongs (and it will), Russia would need extra men ready to kill for $$$
ridl.io/the-middle-e...
Reposted by Anton Barbashin
Shoigu's mild "falling out of grace" is now fully over. Former minister of defense now has the full support of President Putin
ridl.io/the-return-o...
ridl.io/the-return-o...
The Return of Shoigu – Riddle Russia
Andrey Pertsev sums up the political week (October 27−31)
ridl.io
November 1, 2025 at 9:54 AM
Shoigu's mild "falling out of grace" is now fully over. Former minister of defense now has the full support of President Putin
ridl.io/the-return-o...
ridl.io/the-return-o...
Reposted by Anton Barbashin
russia is increasingly tapping into Middle East mercenary market for the war in Ukraine offering generous pay and russian passports. By loss data the 2025 tempo has risen threefold compared to 23-24
ridl.io/the-middle-e...
ridl.io/the-middle-e...
The Middle East on the Ukrainian Front: From One-Off Actions to Systematic Recruitment – Riddle Russia
Nikita Smagin on how the Middle East is emerging as a promising manpower pool for Russia
ridl.io
November 1, 2025 at 9:40 AM
russia is increasingly tapping into Middle East mercenary market for the war in Ukraine offering generous pay and russian passports. By loss data the 2025 tempo has risen threefold compared to 23-24
ridl.io/the-middle-e...
ridl.io/the-middle-e...
Shoigu's mild "falling out of grace" is now fully over. Former minister of defense now has the full support of President Putin
ridl.io/the-return-o...
ridl.io/the-return-o...
The Return of Shoigu – Riddle Russia
Andrey Pertsev sums up the political week (October 27−31)
ridl.io
November 1, 2025 at 9:54 AM
Shoigu's mild "falling out of grace" is now fully over. Former minister of defense now has the full support of President Putin
ridl.io/the-return-o...
ridl.io/the-return-o...
Russia is increasingly tapping into Middle East mercenary market for the war in Ukraine offering generous pay and Russian passports.
If the war in Ukraine prolongs (and it will), Russia would need extra men ready to kill for $$$
ridl.io/the-middle-e...
If the war in Ukraine prolongs (and it will), Russia would need extra men ready to kill for $$$
ridl.io/the-middle-e...
The Middle East on the Ukrainian Front: From One-Off Actions to Systematic Recruitment – Riddle Russia
Nikita Smagin on how the Middle East is emerging as a promising manpower pool for Russia
ridl.io
October 31, 2025 at 8:00 PM
Russia is increasingly tapping into Middle East mercenary market for the war in Ukraine offering generous pay and Russian passports.
If the war in Ukraine prolongs (and it will), Russia would need extra men ready to kill for $$$
ridl.io/the-middle-e...
If the war in Ukraine prolongs (and it will), Russia would need extra men ready to kill for $$$
ridl.io/the-middle-e...
Reposted by Anton Barbashin
Kremlin appoints a new guy to run a department on strategic partnerships that was created instead of two departments previously run by Dmitry Kozak.
Who is the new man - Vadim Titov and why Kiriyenko has appointed him
ridl.io/in-his-own-i...
Who is the new man - Vadim Titov and why Kiriyenko has appointed him
ridl.io/in-his-own-i...
In His Own Image and Likeness – Riddle Russia
Andrey Pertsev on how Sergei Kiriyenko is shaping his personnel strategy
ridl.io
October 30, 2025 at 1:53 PM
Kremlin appoints a new guy to run a department on strategic partnerships that was created instead of two departments previously run by Dmitry Kozak.
Who is the new man - Vadim Titov and why Kiriyenko has appointed him
ridl.io/in-his-own-i...
Who is the new man - Vadim Titov and why Kiriyenko has appointed him
ridl.io/in-his-own-i...
Kremlin appoints a new guy to run a department on strategic partnerships that was created instead of two departments previously run by Dmitry Kozak.
Who is the new man - Vadim Titov and why Kiriyenko has appointed him
ridl.io/in-his-own-i...
Who is the new man - Vadim Titov and why Kiriyenko has appointed him
ridl.io/in-his-own-i...
In His Own Image and Likeness – Riddle Russia
Andrey Pertsev on how Sergei Kiriyenko is shaping his personnel strategy
ridl.io
October 30, 2025 at 1:53 PM
Kremlin appoints a new guy to run a department on strategic partnerships that was created instead of two departments previously run by Dmitry Kozak.
Who is the new man - Vadim Titov and why Kiriyenko has appointed him
ridl.io/in-his-own-i...
Who is the new man - Vadim Titov and why Kiriyenko has appointed him
ridl.io/in-his-own-i...
Reposted by Anton Barbashin
My newest for Riddle on the squeeze on regional budgets and why this will become a problem.
ridl.io/state-of-unr...
ridl.io/state-of-unr...
State of Unreadiness – Riddle Russia
Andras Toth-Czifra on Russian Regional Budgets in 2025−26
ridl.io
October 27, 2025 at 11:04 AM
My newest for Riddle on the squeeze on regional budgets and why this will become a problem.
ridl.io/state-of-unr...
ridl.io/state-of-unr...
Reposted by Anton Barbashin
19th EU sanctions package cements a fresh energy paradigm, wherein Russia forfeits its perch as Europe’s go-to LNG supplier, and the EU redoubles its energy fortress.
ridl.io/lng-in-the-c...
ridl.io/lng-in-the-c...
LNG in the Crosshairs: Will the EU’s 19th Sanctions Package Prove a Turning Point? – Riddle Russia
Vakhtang Partsvania on why the European Union
ridl.io
October 27, 2025 at 5:39 PM
19th EU sanctions package cements a fresh energy paradigm, wherein Russia forfeits its perch as Europe’s go-to LNG supplier, and the EU redoubles its energy fortress.
ridl.io/lng-in-the-c...
ridl.io/lng-in-the-c...
19th EU sanctions package cements a fresh energy paradigm, wherein Russia forfeits its perch as Europe’s go-to LNG supplier, and the EU redoubles its energy fortress.
ridl.io/lng-in-the-c...
ridl.io/lng-in-the-c...
LNG in the Crosshairs: Will the EU’s 19th Sanctions Package Prove a Turning Point? – Riddle Russia
Vakhtang Partsvania on why the European Union
ridl.io
October 27, 2025 at 5:39 PM
19th EU sanctions package cements a fresh energy paradigm, wherein Russia forfeits its perch as Europe’s go-to LNG supplier, and the EU redoubles its energy fortress.
ridl.io/lng-in-the-c...
ridl.io/lng-in-the-c...
Russia regional budgets for this year and 2026 show how the war is making it very hard fore regions to keep the income at the levels of 2022-2023, let alone pre-war levels
@minczifra.bsky.social
ridl.io/state-of-unr...
@minczifra.bsky.social
ridl.io/state-of-unr...
State of Unreadiness – Riddle Russia
Andras Toth-Czifra on Russian Regional Budgets in 2025−26
ridl.io
October 27, 2025 at 9:08 AM
Russia regional budgets for this year and 2026 show how the war is making it very hard fore regions to keep the income at the levels of 2022-2023, let alone pre-war levels
@minczifra.bsky.social
ridl.io/state-of-unr...
@minczifra.bsky.social
ridl.io/state-of-unr...