Anton Barbashin
@abarbashin.bsky.social
Russia foreign and domestic politics. Editorial Director at ridl.io
Pinned
Chronicle of a Deal Missed – Riddle Russia
Anton Barbashin on what Trump wanted from the Kremlin, what Moscow offered in return—and why a year of the most intense Russia-U.S. talks in decades ended back at square one
ridl.io
For RidI.io am taking a look at all of the Russian demands for the US and vice versa.
Was there even a chance at US - Russia deal? What demands and conditions were actually flexible, if any?
ridl.io/chronicle-of...
Was there even a chance at US - Russia deal? What demands and conditions were actually flexible, if any?
ridl.io/chronicle-of...
For RidI.io am taking a look at all of the Russian demands for the US and vice versa.
Was there even a chance at US - Russia deal? What demands and conditions were actually flexible, if any?
ridl.io/chronicle-of...
Was there even a chance at US - Russia deal? What demands and conditions were actually flexible, if any?
ridl.io/chronicle-of...
Chronicle of a Deal Missed – Riddle Russia
Anton Barbashin on what Trump wanted from the Kremlin, what Moscow offered in return—and why a year of the most intense Russia-U.S. talks in decades ended back at square one
ridl.io
November 17, 2025 at 6:28 PM
For RidI.io am taking a look at all of the Russian demands for the US and vice versa.
Was there even a chance at US - Russia deal? What demands and conditions were actually flexible, if any?
ridl.io/chronicle-of...
Was there even a chance at US - Russia deal? What demands and conditions were actually flexible, if any?
ridl.io/chronicle-of...
Check out last week's key Russian economic events, analyzed by @ruboyinthehood.bsky.social
ridl.io/russia-s-sta...
ridl.io/russia-s-sta...
Russia’s Stagflation Trap – Riddle Russia
Nicholas Trickett with the economic summary of the week (November 10−14)
ridl.io
November 17, 2025 at 9:00 AM
Check out last week's key Russian economic events, analyzed by @ruboyinthehood.bsky.social
ridl.io/russia-s-sta...
ridl.io/russia-s-sta...
Since 2022 Russia became much more vulnerable in the Middle East. Paradoxically it led to the transformation of Russia's role giving it certain agility and appeal.
ridl.io/five-princip...
ridl.io/five-princip...
Five Principles of Russia’s New Middle East Policy – Riddle Russia
Nikolai Kozhanov on Russia
ridl.io
November 17, 2025 at 8:56 AM
Since 2022 Russia became much more vulnerable in the Middle East. Paradoxically it led to the transformation of Russia's role giving it certain agility and appeal.
ridl.io/five-princip...
ridl.io/five-princip...
Reposted by Anton Barbashin
Russian head of MFA is skipping high-rank events and state visits. Rumors emerge that he is falling out of Putin's grace for failing the US-Russia peace talks preparations. How true are those rumors? Is he about to retire?
ridl.io/the-lavrov-e...
ridl.io/the-lavrov-e...
The Lavrov Enigma – Riddle Russia
Andrey Pertsev sums up the political week (November 10−15)
ridl.io
November 15, 2025 at 11:22 AM
Russian head of MFA is skipping high-rank events and state visits. Rumors emerge that he is falling out of Putin's grace for failing the US-Russia peace talks preparations. How true are those rumors? Is he about to retire?
ridl.io/the-lavrov-e...
ridl.io/the-lavrov-e...
Russian head of MFA is skipping high-rank events and state visits. Rumors emerge that he is falling out of Putin's grace for failing the US-Russia peace talks preparations. How true are those rumors? Is he about to retire?
ridl.io/the-lavrov-e...
ridl.io/the-lavrov-e...
The Lavrov Enigma – Riddle Russia
Andrey Pertsev sums up the political week (November 10−15)
ridl.io
November 15, 2025 at 11:22 AM
Russian head of MFA is skipping high-rank events and state visits. Rumors emerge that he is falling out of Putin's grace for failing the US-Russia peace talks preparations. How true are those rumors? Is he about to retire?
ridl.io/the-lavrov-e...
ridl.io/the-lavrov-e...
A pivotal driver in Moscow’s ties with MENA region is the opportunism and pragmatism of Middle Eastern political elites. They do not see the Ukraine war as their fight; instead, they regard it as a wellspring of fresh political and economic upsides
ridl.io/five-princip...
ridl.io/five-princip...
Five Principles of Russia’s New Middle East Policy – Riddle Russia
Nikolai Kozhanov on Russia
ridl.io
November 14, 2025 at 4:18 PM
A pivotal driver in Moscow’s ties with MENA region is the opportunism and pragmatism of Middle Eastern political elites. They do not see the Ukraine war as their fight; instead, they regard it as a wellspring of fresh political and economic upsides
ridl.io/five-princip...
ridl.io/five-princip...
Reposted by Anton Barbashin
A brief yet complete history of EU - Russia #visa relationship.
@aivengo96.bsky.social
ridl.io/the-visa-fre...
@aivengo96.bsky.social
ridl.io/the-visa-fre...
The Visa-Free Litmus Test – Riddle Russia
Alexey Uvarov on the twists and turns of Russia
ridl.io
November 11, 2025 at 4:42 PM
A brief yet complete history of EU - Russia #visa relationship.
@aivengo96.bsky.social
ridl.io/the-visa-fre...
@aivengo96.bsky.social
ridl.io/the-visa-fre...
Reposted by Anton Barbashin
The situation is the same, if not worse, with regional finances. Aggregate deficits were at 724.8 billion in September (at this point in 2024 there was still an aggregate surplus) and the last quarter is usually the most expenditure-heavy. Problems are pretty uneven of course ridl.io/state-of-unr...
November 12, 2025 at 6:26 PM
The situation is the same, if not worse, with regional finances. Aggregate deficits were at 724.8 billion in September (at this point in 2024 there was still an aggregate surplus) and the last quarter is usually the most expenditure-heavy. Problems are pretty uneven of course ridl.io/state-of-unr...
"Without support from energy markets, there is no apparent way for Russia to avoid recession. Stagflation can’t last forever when a country is burning through its working-age men, slashing productive investment, and unable to halt inflation"
@ruboyinthehood.bsky.social
ridl.io/russia-s-sta...
@ruboyinthehood.bsky.social
ridl.io/russia-s-sta...
Russia’s Stagflation Trap – Riddle Russia
Nicholas Trickett with the economic summary of the week (November 10−14)
ridl.io
November 13, 2025 at 12:44 PM
"Without support from energy markets, there is no apparent way for Russia to avoid recession. Stagflation can’t last forever when a country is burning through its working-age men, slashing productive investment, and unable to halt inflation"
@ruboyinthehood.bsky.social
ridl.io/russia-s-sta...
@ruboyinthehood.bsky.social
ridl.io/russia-s-sta...
Reposted by Anton Barbashin
The EU’s most pragmatic strategy is to brace for a conflict that could last an additional 2–4 years, writes @abarbashin.bsky.social @ecfreuropeansec.bsky.social
https://bit.ly/47qeUbV
https://bit.ly/47qeUbV
The long game: How Europe can outlast Russia’s war of attrition
While Trump lingers indecisively and Moscow bets on Europe falling apart, the only logical strategy for the EU is to double down on its support for Kyiv…
ecfr.eu
November 12, 2025 at 8:05 AM
The EU’s most pragmatic strategy is to brace for a conflict that could last an additional 2–4 years, writes @abarbashin.bsky.social @ecfreuropeansec.bsky.social
https://bit.ly/47qeUbV
https://bit.ly/47qeUbV
A brief yet complete history of EU - Russia #visa relationship.
@aivengo96.bsky.social
ridl.io/the-visa-fre...
@aivengo96.bsky.social
ridl.io/the-visa-fre...
The Visa-Free Litmus Test – Riddle Russia
Alexey Uvarov on the twists and turns of Russia
ridl.io
November 11, 2025 at 4:42 PM
A brief yet complete history of EU - Russia #visa relationship.
@aivengo96.bsky.social
ridl.io/the-visa-fre...
@aivengo96.bsky.social
ridl.io/the-visa-fre...
The problem of succession is the most critical question for Russia’s regime. But it is not solely one of who replaces Putin himself. It is also a question of succession across most of Russia’s sprawling imperium of institutional offices.
ridl.io/russia-s-sec...
ridl.io/russia-s-sec...
Russia’s Securitized Boomerism – Riddle Russia
Julian G. Waller discusses the problem of generational sclerosis within Russia’s elite and new efforts at belated reform
ridl.io
November 10, 2025 at 1:20 PM
The problem of succession is the most critical question for Russia’s regime. But it is not solely one of who replaces Putin himself. It is also a question of succession across most of Russia’s sprawling imperium of institutional offices.
ridl.io/russia-s-sec...
ridl.io/russia-s-sec...
Reposted by Anton Barbashin
The EU’s most pragmatic strategy is to brace for a conflict that could last an additional 2–4 years, writes @abarbashin.bsky.social @ecfreuropeansec.bsky.social
https://bit.ly/47qeUbV
https://bit.ly/47qeUbV
The long game: How Europe can outlast Russia’s war of attrition
While Trump lingers indecisively and Moscow bets on Europe falling apart, the only logical strategy for the EU is to double down on its support for Kyiv…
bit.ly
November 8, 2025 at 9:05 AM
The EU’s most pragmatic strategy is to brace for a conflict that could last an additional 2–4 years, writes @abarbashin.bsky.social @ecfreuropeansec.bsky.social
https://bit.ly/47qeUbV
https://bit.ly/47qeUbV
🇷🇺 tourists spend a lot of money in EU. Instead of giving them a finger - add an “X euro” to a visa fees that would go to a EU fund destined for rebuilding 🇺🇦.
A. You don’t shut the door on people for what 🇷🇺 government does and they can’t stop;
B. You get extra money for 🇺🇦
A. You don’t shut the door on people for what 🇷🇺 government does and they can’t stop;
B. You get extra money for 🇺🇦
November 7, 2025 at 7:22 PM
🇷🇺 tourists spend a lot of money in EU. Instead of giving them a finger - add an “X euro” to a visa fees that would go to a EU fund destined for rebuilding 🇺🇦.
A. You don’t shut the door on people for what 🇷🇺 government does and they can’t stop;
B. You get extra money for 🇺🇦
A. You don’t shut the door on people for what 🇷🇺 government does and they can’t stop;
B. You get extra money for 🇺🇦
Two Riddle Russia authors became foreign agents today.
I strongly recommend to subscribe and read their analysis:
@aivengo96.bsky.social
ridl.io/auth/alexey-...
Margarita Zavadskaya
ridl.io/auth/margari...
I strongly recommend to subscribe and read their analysis:
@aivengo96.bsky.social
ridl.io/auth/alexey-...
Margarita Zavadskaya
ridl.io/auth/margari...
November 7, 2025 at 2:21 PM
Two Riddle Russia authors became foreign agents today.
I strongly recommend to subscribe and read their analysis:
@aivengo96.bsky.social
ridl.io/auth/alexey-...
Margarita Zavadskaya
ridl.io/auth/margari...
I strongly recommend to subscribe and read their analysis:
@aivengo96.bsky.social
ridl.io/auth/alexey-...
Margarita Zavadskaya
ridl.io/auth/margari...
Kremlin idealogues keep producing papers that aim to convince Russian senior leadership that Russians are ready to take any burden and lose their lives for the Russian State and it survival provided more indoctrination is done. Then anything goes
ridl.io/heavy-stroke...
ridl.io/heavy-stroke...
Heavy Strokes from the Kremlin’s Chief Ideologue – Riddle Russia
Andrey Pertsev sums up the political week (November 3−7)
ridl.io
November 7, 2025 at 1:34 PM
Kremlin idealogues keep producing papers that aim to convince Russian senior leadership that Russians are ready to take any burden and lose their lives for the Russian State and it survival provided more indoctrination is done. Then anything goes
ridl.io/heavy-stroke...
ridl.io/heavy-stroke...
Reposted by Anton Barbashin
"Russia’s narrow upper-elite of Gen-Xers will inherit the regime in due course, but they will be competing with suddenly promoted nouveau aristocrats connected by familial ties to the current leadership core"
ridl.io/russia-s-sec...
ridl.io/russia-s-sec...
Russia’s Securitized Boomerism – Riddle Russia
Julian G. Waller discusses the problem of generational sclerosis within Russia’s elite and new efforts at belated reform
ridl.io
November 6, 2025 at 8:22 AM
"Russia’s narrow upper-elite of Gen-Xers will inherit the regime in due course, but they will be competing with suddenly promoted nouveau aristocrats connected by familial ties to the current leadership core"
ridl.io/russia-s-sec...
ridl.io/russia-s-sec...
Reposted by Anton Barbashin
If Trump does in fact restart nuclear tests, Russia will have to follow while China will benefit the most. And that would d eventually cascade into many others detonating and upgrading.
ridl.io/us-nuclear-t...
ridl.io/us-nuclear-t...
US Nuclear Tests Will Seal the Demise of Arms Control – Riddle Russia
Maxim Starchak examines how Trump could ignite a nuclear arms race, drawing in Russia, China, and other nuclear powers whether they like it or not
ridl.io
November 5, 2025 at 10:19 AM
If Trump does in fact restart nuclear tests, Russia will have to follow while China will benefit the most. And that would d eventually cascade into many others detonating and upgrading.
ridl.io/us-nuclear-t...
ridl.io/us-nuclear-t...
Reposted by Anton Barbashin
While Trump lingers indecisively and Moscow bets on Europe falling apart, the only logical strategy for the EU is to double down on its support for Kyiv, writes @abarbashin.bsky.social @ecfreuropeansec.bsky.social
https://bit.ly/47qeUbV
https://bit.ly/47qeUbV
The long game: How Europe can outlast Russia’s war of attrition
While Trump lingers indecisively and Moscow bets on Europe falling apart, the only logical strategy for the EU is to double down on its support for Kyiv…
bit.ly
November 6, 2025 at 9:02 AM
While Trump lingers indecisively and Moscow bets on Europe falling apart, the only logical strategy for the EU is to double down on its support for Kyiv, writes @abarbashin.bsky.social @ecfreuropeansec.bsky.social
https://bit.ly/47qeUbV
https://bit.ly/47qeUbV
"Russia’s narrow upper-elite of Gen-Xers will inherit the regime in due course, but they will be competing with suddenly promoted nouveau aristocrats connected by familial ties to the current leadership core"
ridl.io/russia-s-sec...
ridl.io/russia-s-sec...
Russia’s Securitized Boomerism – Riddle Russia
Julian G. Waller discusses the problem of generational sclerosis within Russia’s elite and new efforts at belated reform
ridl.io
November 6, 2025 at 8:22 AM
"Russia’s narrow upper-elite of Gen-Xers will inherit the regime in due course, but they will be competing with suddenly promoted nouveau aristocrats connected by familial ties to the current leadership core"
ridl.io/russia-s-sec...
ridl.io/russia-s-sec...
Reposted by Anton Barbashin
"Given limited US support for its Ukraine policy, the EU’s most pragmatic strategy is to brace for a conflict that could last an additional 2–4 years and formulate a five-year plan"
@ecfr.eu
ecfr.eu/article/the-...
@ecfr.eu
ecfr.eu/article/the-...
The long game: How Europe can outlast Russia’s war of attrition
While Trump lingers indecisively and Moscow bets on Europe falling apart, the only logical strategy for the EU is to double down on its support for Kyiv…
ecfr.eu
November 5, 2025 at 10:41 AM
"Given limited US support for its Ukraine policy, the EU’s most pragmatic strategy is to brace for a conflict that could last an additional 2–4 years and formulate a five-year plan"
@ecfr.eu
ecfr.eu/article/the-...
@ecfr.eu
ecfr.eu/article/the-...
"Given limited US support for its Ukraine policy, the EU’s most pragmatic strategy is to brace for a conflict that could last an additional 2–4 years and formulate a five-year plan"
@ecfr.eu
ecfr.eu/article/the-...
@ecfr.eu
ecfr.eu/article/the-...
The long game: How Europe can outlast Russia’s war of attrition
While Trump lingers indecisively and Moscow bets on Europe falling apart, the only logical strategy for the EU is to double down on its support for Kyiv…
ecfr.eu
November 5, 2025 at 10:41 AM
"Given limited US support for its Ukraine policy, the EU’s most pragmatic strategy is to brace for a conflict that could last an additional 2–4 years and formulate a five-year plan"
@ecfr.eu
ecfr.eu/article/the-...
@ecfr.eu
ecfr.eu/article/the-...
If Trump does in fact restart nuclear tests, Russia will have to follow while China will benefit the most. And that would d eventually cascade into many others detonating and upgrading.
ridl.io/us-nuclear-t...
ridl.io/us-nuclear-t...
US Nuclear Tests Will Seal the Demise of Arms Control – Riddle Russia
Maxim Starchak examines how Trump could ignite a nuclear arms race, drawing in Russia, China, and other nuclear powers whether they like it or not
ridl.io
November 5, 2025 at 10:19 AM
If Trump does in fact restart nuclear tests, Russia will have to follow while China will benefit the most. And that would d eventually cascade into many others detonating and upgrading.
ridl.io/us-nuclear-t...
ridl.io/us-nuclear-t...
Kremlin strategists under Sergei Kiriyenko had eyed ousting the heads of annexed territories of Ukraine, taking out "local leaders" and supplementing them with fully loyal technocrats
ridl.io/the-return-o...
ridl.io/the-return-o...
The Return of Shoigu – Riddle Russia
Andrey Pertsev sums up the political week (October 27−31)
ridl.io
November 4, 2025 at 5:19 PM
Kremlin strategists under Sergei Kiriyenko had eyed ousting the heads of annexed territories of Ukraine, taking out "local leaders" and supplementing them with fully loyal technocrats
ridl.io/the-return-o...
ridl.io/the-return-o...
Reposted by Anton Barbashin
Russia regional budgets for this year and 2026 show how the war is making it very hard fore regions to keep the income at the levels of 2022-2023, let alone pre-war levels
@minczifra.bsky.social
ridl.io/state-of-unr...
@minczifra.bsky.social
ridl.io/state-of-unr...
State of Unreadiness – Riddle Russia
Andras Toth-Czifra on Russian Regional Budgets in 2025−26
ridl.io
October 27, 2025 at 9:08 AM
Russia regional budgets for this year and 2026 show how the war is making it very hard fore regions to keep the income at the levels of 2022-2023, let alone pre-war levels
@minczifra.bsky.social
ridl.io/state-of-unr...
@minczifra.bsky.social
ridl.io/state-of-unr...