András Tóth-Czifra
@minczifra.bsky.social
Political & security analyst. 🇪🇺🇭🇺🇺🇸. FPRI Eurasia fellow, Bear Market Brief contributor. Ex-CEPA, ESI. Posts about 🇷🇺, 🇪🇺, illiberalism and its limits. Posts reflect my own views.
Здесь вам не Toth.
www.noyardstick.com
minczifra.substack.com
Здесь вам не Toth.
www.noyardstick.com
minczifra.substack.com
Pinned
András Tóth-Czifra
@minczifra.bsky.social
· Feb 27
The Kremlin's Balancing Act : The War's Impact On Regional Power Dynamics - Foreign Policy Research Institute
Following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Russian government accelerated the preexisting trend of centralizing control over regional power and economic assets. This centralization drive h...
www.fpri.org
You can now read my latest report for @fpri.bsky.social about the war's impact on center-region power dynamics in Russia, originally written at the end of 2024, but now updated with new figures and conclusions.
www.fpri.org/article/2025...
www.fpri.org/article/2025...
The same feeling I had in Hungary this summer as people from all walks of life, on sweltering trains stopped in the middle of nowhere, were jointly sending Fidesz and especially transit minister Janos Lazar to hell.
Had to fly across the US today, changing planes, and found pleasant camaraderie...everyone wishing one another luck making their flights
November 9, 2025 at 9:25 PM
The same feeling I had in Hungary this summer as people from all walks of life, on sweltering trains stopped in the middle of nowhere, were jointly sending Fidesz and especially transit minister Janos Lazar to hell.
It takes a very specific combination of hobbies and professional interests to see a goshawk and go "oh yes, the federal institution for intervention-minded officials!"
November 8, 2025 at 8:06 PM
It takes a very specific combination of hobbies and professional interests to see a goshawk and go "oh yes, the federal institution for intervention-minded officials!"
It was a pleasure to talk Russian regional budgets this week with @calummackenzie.bsky.social for Swiss radio.
(Politologe has always been my favorite and most correct descriptor!)
www.srf.ch/audio/echo-d...
(Politologe has always been my favorite and most correct descriptor!)
www.srf.ch/audio/echo-d...
Russland rekrutiert neu permanent Soldaten
In Russland können junge Männer neu das ganze Jahr über zum Wehrdienst eingezogen werden, statt wie bisher nur innerhalb von zwei fixen Zeiträumen pro Jahr. Gleichzeitig senken mehrere Regionen aber d...
www.srf.ch
November 8, 2025 at 7:15 PM
It was a pleasure to talk Russian regional budgets this week with @calummackenzie.bsky.social for Swiss radio.
(Politologe has always been my favorite and most correct descriptor!)
www.srf.ch/audio/echo-d...
(Politologe has always been my favorite and most correct descriptor!)
www.srf.ch/audio/echo-d...
Reposted by András Tóth-Czifra
Turns out, Orban wasn't telling the truth: the exemption he got is for a year. But this is all he needs - elections take place in April. It's still a win for him.
But much will depend on how else Trump plans to support him and if this is enough to kickstart the economy
www.bbc.com/news/article...
But much will depend on how else Trump plans to support him and if this is enough to kickstart the economy
www.bbc.com/news/article...
Trump gives Hungary one-year exemption from Russian energy sanctions
The opt-out comes despite the US increasing pressure on allies to sever economic ties with Russia.
www.bbc.com
November 8, 2025 at 1:13 PM
Turns out, Orban wasn't telling the truth: the exemption he got is for a year. But this is all he needs - elections take place in April. It's still a win for him.
But much will depend on how else Trump plans to support him and if this is enough to kickstart the economy
www.bbc.com/news/article...
But much will depend on how else Trump plans to support him and if this is enough to kickstart the economy
www.bbc.com/news/article...
And now the propaganda rag "Magyar Nemzet" (along with other pro-Orban media) shared - then removed - a map containing the personal data, including the address, of the opposition supporters and activists whose data was stolen. Clear and brazen intimidation tactics.
444.hu/2025/11/07/n...
444.hu/2025/11/07/n...
November 8, 2025 at 2:01 AM
And now the propaganda rag "Magyar Nemzet" (along with other pro-Orban media) shared - then removed - a map containing the personal data, including the address, of the opposition supporters and activists whose data was stolen. Clear and brazen intimidation tactics.
444.hu/2025/11/07/n...
444.hu/2025/11/07/n...
Orban says Trump granted oil & gas imports via Druzhba and Turkish Stream full exemption from sanctions and the Rosatom's Paks expansion isn't going to be sanctioned either. Hungary is going to buy nuclear fuel from Westinghouse and explore procuring small modular reactors.
A win for Orban, if so.
A win for Orban, if so.
November 7, 2025 at 9:14 PM
Orban says Trump granted oil & gas imports via Druzhba and Turkish Stream full exemption from sanctions and the Rosatom's Paks expansion isn't going to be sanctioned either. Hungary is going to buy nuclear fuel from Westinghouse and explore procuring small modular reactors.
A win for Orban, if so.
A win for Orban, if so.
The weekend is here and the new brief is out! Read about Pokrovsk, the Russian car industry, debates triggered by the economic slowdown, Tver's new governor and more!
Subscribe to have it in your inbox every week.
Subscribe to have it in your inbox every week.
Russian troops attempt to encircle Ukrainian forces in #Pokrovsk. Read more in the latest Brief.
Closing the circle
Russian troops attempt to encircle Ukrainian forces in Pokrovsk
bearmarketbrief.substack.com
November 7, 2025 at 8:41 PM
The weekend is here and the new brief is out! Read about Pokrovsk, the Russian car industry, debates triggered by the economic slowdown, Tver's new governor and more!
Subscribe to have it in your inbox every week.
Subscribe to have it in your inbox every week.
I always know a year has passed when Shoigu again calls for the industrialization of / building new cities in Siberia.
www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/11/06/s...
www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/11/06/s...
Shoigu Calls for ‘New Industrialization’ in Siberia to Revive Russia’s East - The Moscow Times
Russia aims to turn Siberia into the center of a new industrialization push and attract workers eastward, Security Council Secretary and former Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said Thursday.
www.themoscowtimes.com
November 7, 2025 at 7:35 PM
I always know a year has passed when Shoigu again calls for the industrialization of / building new cities in Siberia.
www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/11/06/s...
www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/11/06/s...
From Orban claiming that every government in Europe is liberal & non-Christian except for his, to Trump saying that he is friends with every European leader because they do everything he asks them to & that some European countries had "no crime" 10 years ago, this presser is already a wild ride.
November 7, 2025 at 6:25 PM
From Orban claiming that every government in Europe is liberal & non-Christian except for his, to Trump saying that he is friends with every European leader because they do everything he asks them to & that some European countries had "no crime" 10 years ago, this presser is already a wild ride.
Reposted by András Tóth-Czifra
”…state-backed loans account for about a fifth of growth in Russia’s bank lending since 2020. She noted that higher amount of subsidised credit requires higher policy rates to keep inflation in check.”
#Russia 🇷🇺
#Russia 🇷🇺
BOFIT Weekly Review 43/2025
Russian economic growth remains sluggish and subject to structural imbalances
Read more 🔗 www.bofit.fi/en/monitorin...
#Russia #economy #BOFITWeeklyReview
Russian economic growth remains sluggish and subject to structural imbalances
Read more 🔗 www.bofit.fi/en/monitorin...
#Russia #economy #BOFITWeeklyReview
November 7, 2025 at 2:45 PM
”…state-backed loans account for about a fifth of growth in Russia’s bank lending since 2020. She noted that higher amount of subsidised credit requires higher policy rates to keep inflation in check.”
#Russia 🇷🇺
#Russia 🇷🇺
Reposted by András Tóth-Czifra
Russian oil and gas revenues in October 2025 were 888.6 billion rubles ($10.9 billion), or 27% below October 2024.
November 7, 2025 at 11:07 AM
Russian oil and gas revenues in October 2025 were 888.6 billion rubles ($10.9 billion), or 27% below October 2024.
Reposted by András Tóth-Czifra
💥🇷🇺 Russian Orthodox bishop Hilarion (Grigory Alfeyev), Patriarch Kirill’s ex–No. 2, is seen here harassing his young assistant George Suzuki — who shared the video with
@denikn.cz. Hilarion served in Budapest, cozying up to Viktor Orbán, now based in Karlovy Vary. More: denikn.cz/1880250/lezl...
@denikn.cz. Hilarion served in Budapest, cozying up to Viktor Orbán, now based in Karlovy Vary. More: denikn.cz/1880250/lezl...
November 6, 2025 at 11:38 AM
💥🇷🇺 Russian Orthodox bishop Hilarion (Grigory Alfeyev), Patriarch Kirill’s ex–No. 2, is seen here harassing his young assistant George Suzuki — who shared the video with
@denikn.cz. Hilarion served in Budapest, cozying up to Viktor Orbán, now based in Karlovy Vary. More: denikn.cz/1880250/lezl...
@denikn.cz. Hilarion served in Budapest, cozying up to Viktor Orbán, now based in Karlovy Vary. More: denikn.cz/1880250/lezl...
FIFA inventing a participation trophy to suck up to Trump as a fawning MAGA crowd looks on would capture the essence of global politics in 2025 almost perfectly
FIFA awarding a "peace prize" to Trump would be so absolutely on-brand, a truly genius innovation.
November 5, 2025 at 9:09 PM
FIFA inventing a participation trophy to suck up to Trump as a fawning MAGA crowd looks on would capture the essence of global politics in 2025 almost perfectly
Reposted by András Tóth-Czifra
Southern Russia’s Saratov region has become the latest federal subject to reduce enlistment bonuses for soldiers signing military contracts, with one of its most populous districts slashing payments even further.
Saratov Region Cuts Military Contract Bonus - The Moscow Times
Southern Russia’s Saratov region has become the latest federal subject to reduce enlistment bonuses for soldiers signing military contracts, with one of its most populous districts slashing payments e...
www.themoscowtimes.com
November 5, 2025 at 2:45 PM
Southern Russia’s Saratov region has become the latest federal subject to reduce enlistment bonuses for soldiers signing military contracts, with one of its most populous districts slashing payments even further.
A still from an AI-generated video that Hungarian foreign minister Peter Szijjarto actually posted on his TikTok as a prelude to a visit of Hungarian government figures in DC later this week: Orban as Captain America, Szijjarto as Spiderman and transit minister Janos Lazar as Iron Man.
November 5, 2025 at 2:47 PM
A still from an AI-generated video that Hungarian foreign minister Peter Szijjarto actually posted on his TikTok as a prelude to a visit of Hungarian government figures in DC later this week: Orban as Captain America, Szijjarto as Spiderman and transit minister Janos Lazar as Iron Man.
Putin took an uncharacteristically long time - more than a month - to make this appointment. Korolyov, a career technocrat, is the third governor appointed from the Federal Anti-Monopoly Service. Notably, he is not a war participant, although the possibility of appointing one was likely considered.
President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday appointed senior antitrust official Vitaly Korolyov as acting governor of the Tver region more than a month after the post was vacated.
Putin Names Antitrust Official as Acting Governor of Tver Region - The Moscow Times
President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday appointed senior antitrust official Vitaly Korolyov as acting governor of the Tver region more than a month after the post was vacated.
www.themoscowtimes.com
November 5, 2025 at 1:01 PM
Putin took an uncharacteristically long time - more than a month - to make this appointment. Korolyov, a career technocrat, is the third governor appointed from the Federal Anti-Monopoly Service. Notably, he is not a war participant, although the possibility of appointing one was likely considered.
Congrats to our new mayor!
And all the other candidates who mopped the floor with Trump's minions tonight.
And all the other candidates who mopped the floor with Trump's minions tonight.
November 5, 2025 at 2:37 AM
Congrats to our new mayor!
And all the other candidates who mopped the floor with Trump's minions tonight.
And all the other candidates who mopped the floor with Trump's minions tonight.
Reposted by András Tóth-Czifra
Good piece. Research on Russian law enforcement shows this.
"Repressive actions are often born not as a direct realization of Putin’s commands but as the result of individuals striving to show that they are doing their job."
Note Bondarev doesn't let Putin off the hook.
"Repressive actions are often born not as a direct realization of Putin’s commands but as the result of individuals striving to show that they are doing their job."
Note Bondarev doesn't let Putin off the hook.
Don't Blame Putin Alone for Russia's Misdeeds – It's the System - The Moscow Times
Opinion | There is an idea firmly rooted among the politically active segment of Russian society — both inside the country and among emigres — that the Russian state as something absolutely personalis...
www.themoscowtimes.com
November 4, 2025 at 3:54 PM
Good piece. Research on Russian law enforcement shows this.
"Repressive actions are often born not as a direct realization of Putin’s commands but as the result of individuals striving to show that they are doing their job."
Note Bondarev doesn't let Putin off the hook.
"Repressive actions are often born not as a direct realization of Putin’s commands but as the result of individuals striving to show that they are doing their job."
Note Bondarev doesn't let Putin off the hook.
These tactics - data breach of an opposition database used for "we know where you live" type of intimidation, threat of prosecution and national security inquiry, etc. - are depressingly familiar from Russia from the past 5-6 years.
www.euractiv.com/news/orban-r...
www.euractiv.com/news/orban-r...
Orbán rival says cyberattack behind database leak | Euractiv
Magyar also accused Russia of orchestrating the attacks to keep Orbán in power
www.euractiv.com
November 4, 2025 at 6:13 PM
These tactics - data breach of an opposition database used for "we know where you live" type of intimidation, threat of prosecution and national security inquiry, etc. - are depressingly familiar from Russia from the past 5-6 years.
www.euractiv.com/news/orban-r...
www.euractiv.com/news/orban-r...
...but before he died, he endorsed Cuomo, I'm sure.
Dick Cheney, the former US Republican vice-president, has died aged 84, according to a statement from his family on.ft.com/47CZrnt
November 4, 2025 at 12:09 PM
...but before he died, he endorsed Cuomo, I'm sure.
The weekend is here and @bearmarketbrief.bsky.social is out! Read about Russia's new missile test, the effect of sanctions, new wartime legislation and an assortment of regional political news!
Subscribe to have it in your inbox every week!
open.substack.com/pub/bearmark...
Subscribe to have it in your inbox every week!
open.substack.com/pub/bearmark...
BOO!-revestnik
Russia tests its nuclear-powered cruise missile, Burevestnik
open.substack.com
November 1, 2025 at 2:53 AM
The weekend is here and @bearmarketbrief.bsky.social is out! Read about Russia's new missile test, the effect of sanctions, new wartime legislation and an assortment of regional political news!
Subscribe to have it in your inbox every week!
open.substack.com/pub/bearmark...
Subscribe to have it in your inbox every week!
open.substack.com/pub/bearmark...
Another day, another region cutting budgetary expenditures. Rostov governor Yury Slyusar says his region is not going to take out further loans from the market due to high interest rates; instead, they are going to cut non-crucial expenditures. Several other regions do this.
t.me/Yuri_Slusar/...
t.me/Yuri_Slusar/...
Юрий Слюсарь
Обсуждали с правительством бюджетирование. Ситуация непростая, доходы ограничены. И, честно говоря, брать в долг у коммерческих банков на тех условиях, что они предлагают, считаю неразумным.
Приняли ...
t.me
October 29, 2025 at 4:46 PM
Another day, another region cutting budgetary expenditures. Rostov governor Yury Slyusar says his region is not going to take out further loans from the market due to high interest rates; instead, they are going to cut non-crucial expenditures. Several other regions do this.
t.me/Yuri_Slusar/...
t.me/Yuri_Slusar/...
Istories looked at budget execution data from 10 Russian regions plus the occupied Crimea and found that they have spent around 2 billion rubles on recruiters since mid-2024. Around a third of regions use such services but not all of them publish data on spending.
istories.media/stories/2025...
istories.media/stories/2025...
О таких расходах отчитались 11 субъектов
Эти суммы сопоставимы с тратами регионов на здравоохранение и образование
istories.media
October 28, 2025 at 2:48 AM
Istories looked at budget execution data from 10 Russian regions plus the occupied Crimea and found that they have spent around 2 billion rubles on recruiters since mid-2024. Around a third of regions use such services but not all of them publish data on spending.
istories.media/stories/2025...
istories.media/stories/2025...
Reposted by András Tóth-Czifra
My newest for Riddle on the squeeze on regional budgets and why this will become a problem.
ridl.io/state-of-unr...
ridl.io/state-of-unr...
State of Unreadiness – Riddle Russia
Andras Toth-Czifra on Russian Regional Budgets in 2025−26
ridl.io
October 27, 2025 at 11:04 AM
My newest for Riddle on the squeeze on regional budgets and why this will become a problem.
ridl.io/state-of-unr...
ridl.io/state-of-unr...
My newest for Riddle on the squeeze on regional budgets and why this will become a problem.
ridl.io/state-of-unr...
ridl.io/state-of-unr...
State of Unreadiness – Riddle Russia
Andras Toth-Czifra on Russian Regional Budgets in 2025−26
ridl.io
October 27, 2025 at 11:04 AM
My newest for Riddle on the squeeze on regional budgets and why this will become a problem.
ridl.io/state-of-unr...
ridl.io/state-of-unr...