⑆Luke Stein⑈
@lukestein.com
Financial economist (finance ⚭ labor ⚭ history) ✨ Asst. Professor at Babson College ✨ Migrating here from @lukestein on the bird site ✨ he/him/かれ
Pinned
⑆Luke Stein⑈
@lukestein.com
· Sep 20
🧑🏾🐎🧑🏽🐎🧑🏼🐎 WP: “Racial discrimination in asset prices: Evidence from horse betting” w/ @spencerbarnes.bsky.social
If gamblers underestimate minority trainers (or just don’t 𝘭𝘪𝘬𝘦 them), their horses may generate higher risk-adjusted returns!
Download WP lukeste.in/horsebetting
1/7
If gamblers underestimate minority trainers (or just don’t 𝘭𝘪𝘬𝘦 them), their horses may generate higher risk-adjusted returns!
Download WP lukeste.in/horsebetting
1/7
Reposted by ⑆Luke Stein⑈
Worth noting that the IRS has just lost its 3rd commissioner in *this* filing season.
That’s unheard of. With tax day around the corner, fair to be worried about this filing season – and what’s to come with respect to our ability to collect taxes and raise revenue
That’s unheard of. With tax day around the corner, fair to be worried about this filing season – and what’s to come with respect to our ability to collect taxes and raise revenue
April 9, 2025 at 12:34 PM
Worth noting that the IRS has just lost its 3rd commissioner in *this* filing season.
That’s unheard of. With tax day around the corner, fair to be worried about this filing season – and what’s to come with respect to our ability to collect taxes and raise revenue
That’s unheard of. With tax day around the corner, fair to be worried about this filing season – and what’s to come with respect to our ability to collect taxes and raise revenue
Reposted by ⑆Luke Stein⑈
New analysis from @budgetlab.bsky.social:
The IRS is entering into an agmt to share data about undocumented immigrants with ICE. Historically, the agency promised data would not be used in this way.
We estimate the govt will lose ~$300B in the next decade as a result.
The IRS is entering into an agmt to share data about undocumented immigrants with ICE. Historically, the agency promised data would not be used in this way.
We estimate the govt will lose ~$300B in the next decade as a result.
April 9, 2025 at 12:34 PM
New analysis from @budgetlab.bsky.social:
The IRS is entering into an agmt to share data about undocumented immigrants with ICE. Historically, the agency promised data would not be used in this way.
We estimate the govt will lose ~$300B in the next decade as a result.
The IRS is entering into an agmt to share data about undocumented immigrants with ICE. Historically, the agency promised data would not be used in this way.
We estimate the govt will lose ~$300B in the next decade as a result.
Reposted by ⑆Luke Stein⑈
Hard endorse
I never want to hear an #EconSky debate about dropping macro from the PhD core ever again.
April 9, 2025 at 9:22 AM
Hard endorse
Reposted by ⑆Luke Stein⑈
It’s not secret at all! Hmu for your dog bandana needs, and I’ll ship you some for free. My goal is for all dogs to be #DogsInBandanas.
April 9, 2025 at 2:53 AM
It’s not secret at all! Hmu for your dog bandana needs, and I’ll ship you some for free. My goal is for all dogs to be #DogsInBandanas.
In contrast with much in the world being terrible, let it be known that @maibennett.com is a delight to hang out with irl, and she has a not-so-secret hobby sewing adorable dog bandannas
April 9, 2025 at 2:47 AM
In contrast with much in the world being terrible, let it be known that @maibennett.com is a delight to hang out with irl, and she has a not-so-secret hobby sewing adorable dog bandannas
Reposted by ⑆Luke Stein⑈
Another happy client of #BobsBandanas cc @lukestein.com
April 8, 2025 at 10:44 PM
Another happy client of #BobsBandanas cc @lukestein.com
Reposted by ⑆Luke Stein⑈
Literally recorded a pod about this to release tomorrow. Investors don't buy shares; they buy interest in an SPV, so the companies can limit the number of investors on their books and remain legally private
Exclusive: EquityZen and Forge Global are lowering the minimum investment in private companies like SpaceX to $5,000, making it easier for individual investors to access high-risk, high-reward opportunities.
Exclusive | Want to Invest in a Private Company Like SpaceX? All It Takes Is $5,000
It is getting easier to invest in high-risk, high-reward private companies. EquityZen and Forge Global, which are marketplaces for trading shares of private companies, are lowering the minimum…
buff.ly
March 25, 2025 at 1:33 PM
Literally recorded a pod about this to release tomorrow. Investors don't buy shares; they buy interest in an SPV, so the companies can limit the number of investors on their books and remain legally private
Reposted by ⑆Luke Stein⑈
I am not saying this out of glee or schadenfreude, or to score political points. I actually think it's an important data point that may not be getting through to people in the US because of all the other horrors they're confronting and trying to resist.
I wonder if my American friends understand how much Trump has destroyed the US as a travel destination. People are legitimately afraid that they might be detained for weeks in conditions that violate human rights standards, and have no idea how to avoid that outcome. So they aren't coming.
March 26, 2025 at 10:33 AM
I am not saying this out of glee or schadenfreude, or to score political points. I actually think it's an important data point that may not be getting through to people in the US because of all the other horrors they're confronting and trying to resist.
Reposted by ⑆Luke Stein⑈
I wasn't browsing r/dataisbeautiful for this, but interesting pattern, good use of the scatter (and layers) and the overlaid histograms (which generally isn't my favorite).
www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeau...
www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeau...
March 27, 2025 at 8:28 PM
I wasn't browsing r/dataisbeautiful for this, but interesting pattern, good use of the scatter (and layers) and the overlaid histograms (which generally isn't my favorite).
www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeau...
www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeau...
“So, why don’t you start by telling us a bit about your job market paper”
March 26, 2025 at 11:43 PM
“So, why don’t you start by telling us a bit about your job market paper”
Reposted by ⑆Luke Stein⑈
Reposted by ⑆Luke Stein⑈
If the government can do this to universities, we don't live in a free society. Five alarm fire.
I’m told this is a real letter. It basically says, “We’ll destroy Columbia unless you destroy it first.”
March 14, 2025 at 1:50 AM
If the government can do this to universities, we don't live in a free society. Five alarm fire.
Lunchtime chat w colleague Linghang. In spirit of what our MSF students are learning to code, here’s max drawdown following every 10% S&P 500 correction back to 1980 (n=15 excl. today)
- 6 hit a new high before dropping 15%
- Another 6 fell >25%
- Only 3 turned around at 15–25% (all close to 20%)
- 6 hit a new high before dropping 15%
- Another 6 fell >25%
- Only 3 turned around at 15–25% (all close to 20%)
March 13, 2025 at 11:36 PM
Lunchtime chat w colleague Linghang. In spirit of what our MSF students are learning to code, here’s max drawdown following every 10% S&P 500 correction back to 1980 (n=15 excl. today)
- 6 hit a new high before dropping 15%
- Another 6 fell >25%
- Only 3 turned around at 15–25% (all close to 20%)
- 6 hit a new high before dropping 15%
- Another 6 fell >25%
- Only 3 turned around at 15–25% (all close to 20%)
Reposted by ⑆Luke Stein⑈
Context for today's headlines
March 11, 2025 at 8:19 AM
Context for today's headlines
Reposted by ⑆Luke Stein⑈
genuine respect for williams & connolly, hope law students with multiple options take notice
Williams & Connolly is representing Perkins Coie. And/but "[s]everal other firms declined to represent Perkins Coie, fearing that they, too, could become targets of Mr. Trump’s ire." www.nytimes.com/2025/03/10/u...
Firm Targeted by Trump Over Clinton Campaign Work Hires Top Litigators
President Trump stripped Perkins Coie of access to federal buildings and personnel, citing its work for Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign. The firm hired Williams & Connolly, which is skilled in fightin...
www.nytimes.com
March 10, 2025 at 11:20 PM
genuine respect for williams & connolly, hope law students with multiple options take notice
Reposted by ⑆Luke Stein⑈
Hi, McDonalds here!
Everyone at our company is a stupid dumbass moron and think people don't wanna order hotcakes and sausages at 1 P.M when it's been shown with extensive market research and customer reviews they DO want that.
We used to offer it but removed it. Sorry, I hate our hashbrowns too.
Everyone at our company is a stupid dumbass moron and think people don't wanna order hotcakes and sausages at 1 P.M when it's been shown with extensive market research and customer reviews they DO want that.
We used to offer it but removed it. Sorry, I hate our hashbrowns too.
February 17, 2025 at 7:53 AM
Hi, McDonalds here!
Everyone at our company is a stupid dumbass moron and think people don't wanna order hotcakes and sausages at 1 P.M when it's been shown with extensive market research and customer reviews they DO want that.
We used to offer it but removed it. Sorry, I hate our hashbrowns too.
Everyone at our company is a stupid dumbass moron and think people don't wanna order hotcakes and sausages at 1 P.M when it's been shown with extensive market research and customer reviews they DO want that.
We used to offer it but removed it. Sorry, I hate our hashbrowns too.
Reposted by ⑆Luke Stein⑈
Let's say you work at a fund of funds that cuts the lowest 10% performers every calendar year.
You are beta=1 with decent alpha that puts you reliably in the top 40% of performers at your firm.
You also have a reliable prediction: "70% chance market goes down next 3 months."
You are beta=1 with decent alpha that puts you reliably in the top 40% of performers at your firm.
You also have a reliable prediction: "70% chance market goes down next 3 months."
A lot of market participants are structurally long, e.g. their funds' prospectuses require it.
There is also more career risk in losing money when markets are going up than losing money when markets go down, which creates additional long bias above just what you expect from E[returns] > 0.
There is also more career risk in losing money when markets are going up than losing money when markets go down, which creates additional long bias above just what you expect from E[returns] > 0.
March 10, 2025 at 6:57 PM
Let's say you work at a fund of funds that cuts the lowest 10% performers every calendar year.
You are beta=1 with decent alpha that puts you reliably in the top 40% of performers at your firm.
You also have a reliable prediction: "70% chance market goes down next 3 months."
You are beta=1 with decent alpha that puts you reliably in the top 40% of performers at your firm.
You also have a reliable prediction: "70% chance market goes down next 3 months."
Reposted by ⑆Luke Stein⑈
With his permission, I'm sharing Dean Treanor's response to Ed Martin's letter:
March 6, 2025 at 8:17 PM
With his permission, I'm sharing Dean Treanor's response to Ed Martin's letter:
March 6, 2025 at 1:58 PM
Reposted by ⑆Luke Stein⑈
There it is: Speaker of the House says Elon has already started running your Social Security through his AI.
Mike Johnson on Elon Musk: "We meet late into the night in his office and we've looked at that. What he's finding with his algorithms crawling through the data of Social Security system is enormous amounts of fraud, waste, and abuse."
March 2, 2025 at 6:00 PM
There it is: Speaker of the House says Elon has already started running your Social Security through his AI.
This is my Twitter DM inbox
March 3, 2025 at 1:28 AM
This is my Twitter DM inbox
Has the whole world gone crazy? Am I the only one around here who gives a sh!t about the rules? Mark it zero!
March 2, 2025 at 11:05 PM
Has the whole world gone crazy? Am I the only one around here who gives a sh!t about the rules? Mark it zero!