Leo Feler
@leofeler.com
Chief Economist at Numerator and Visiting Economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Previously UCLA Anderson Forecast & Johns Hopkins.
I write about consumer behavior and macroeconomics.
Website: leofeler.com.
Chicago
Opinions are my own
I write about consumer behavior and macroeconomics.
Website: leofeler.com.
Chicago
Opinions are my own
Reposted by Leo Feler
Great substack by @jaredb-econ.bsky.social on who's driving consumer spending & what that means for economic growth. The economy is more fragile than it seems on the surface. In Numerator data, we see lower-income HHs cutting back on discretionary purchases.
econjared.substack.com/p/whos-spend...
econjared.substack.com/p/whos-spend...
Who's Spending and What Does That Imply For Growth?
The weight of the evidence suggests an economy that's considerably more fragile than some of the data--remember when we used to get data?--are showing.
econjared.substack.com
October 22, 2025 at 7:49 PM
Great substack by @jaredb-econ.bsky.social on who's driving consumer spending & what that means for economic growth. The economy is more fragile than it seems on the surface. In Numerator data, we see lower-income HHs cutting back on discretionary purchases.
econjared.substack.com/p/whos-spend...
econjared.substack.com/p/whos-spend...
Thanks to @bencasselman.bsky.social and @colbylsmith.bsky.social for featuring my comments. Here's a chart showing that spending on everyday household items tends to be more equal across income quintiles but has been growing more unequal over the past few years.
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/19/b...
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/19/b...
October 20, 2025 at 9:18 PM
Thanks to @bencasselman.bsky.social and @colbylsmith.bsky.social for featuring my comments. Here's a chart showing that spending on everyday household items tends to be more equal across income quintiles but has been growing more unequal over the past few years.
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/19/b...
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/19/b...
Reposted by Leo Feler
Statement from Fed Gov Lisa Cook:
“President Trump purported to fire me “for cause” when no cause exists under the law, and he has no authority to do so. I will not resign. I will continue to carry out my duties to help the American economy as I have been doing since 2022.”
“President Trump purported to fire me “for cause” when no cause exists under the law, and he has no authority to do so. I will not resign. I will continue to carry out my duties to help the American economy as I have been doing since 2022.”
August 26, 2025 at 3:05 AM
Statement from Fed Gov Lisa Cook:
“President Trump purported to fire me “for cause” when no cause exists under the law, and he has no authority to do so. I will not resign. I will continue to carry out my duties to help the American economy as I have been doing since 2022.”
“President Trump purported to fire me “for cause” when no cause exists under the law, and he has no authority to do so. I will not resign. I will continue to carry out my duties to help the American economy as I have been doing since 2022.”
Reposted by Leo Feler
The President firing the BLS Commissioner last week stirred up many criticisms agency. One that I found most troubling is the idea that the private sector could do it better. No, there's no substitute for the BLS as I argue in my
@opinion.bloomberg.com piece: www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
@opinion.bloomberg.com piece: www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
The BLS Can’t Be Replaced by the Private Sector
Government statistical agencies provide breadth and context that private firms can’t match.
www.bloomberg.com
August 8, 2025 at 7:53 PM
The President firing the BLS Commissioner last week stirred up many criticisms agency. One that I found most troubling is the idea that the private sector could do it better. No, there's no substitute for the BLS as I argue in my
@opinion.bloomberg.com piece: www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
@opinion.bloomberg.com piece: www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
This wouldn't even cover the higher costs the average American family will pay because of tariffs.
$3.3 Trillion in imports annually * 20% effective tariff rate = $660 Billion. Divide this by 132 million households in the US and each household is paying $5,000 a year in tariffs.
$3.3 Trillion in imports annually * 20% effective tariff rate = $660 Billion. Divide this by 132 million households in the US and each household is paying $5,000 a year in tariffs.
August 8, 2025 at 7:26 PM
This wouldn't even cover the higher costs the average American family will pay because of tariffs.
$3.3 Trillion in imports annually * 20% effective tariff rate = $660 Billion. Divide this by 132 million households in the US and each household is paying $5,000 a year in tariffs.
$3.3 Trillion in imports annually * 20% effective tariff rate = $660 Billion. Divide this by 132 million households in the US and each household is paying $5,000 a year in tariffs.
My piece on ABC News this morning.
Article 1, Section 8 of the US Constitution:
The CONGRESS shall have the power to lay and collect taxes, duties, imposts and excises...
To regulate commerce with foreign nations...
abcnews.go.com/US/video/sto...
Article 1, Section 8 of the US Constitution:
The CONGRESS shall have the power to lay and collect taxes, duties, imposts and excises...
To regulate commerce with foreign nations...
abcnews.go.com/US/video/sto...
Video Stocks rise after Trump’s sweeping new tariffs take effect
President Donald Trump’s sweeping new tariffs finally took effect on Thursday, slapping levies on dozens of countries and risking price increases for a host of everyday goods.
abcnews.go.com
August 7, 2025 at 7:22 PM
My piece on ABC News this morning.
Article 1, Section 8 of the US Constitution:
The CONGRESS shall have the power to lay and collect taxes, duties, imposts and excises...
To regulate commerce with foreign nations...
abcnews.go.com/US/video/sto...
Article 1, Section 8 of the US Constitution:
The CONGRESS shall have the power to lay and collect taxes, duties, imposts and excises...
To regulate commerce with foreign nations...
abcnews.go.com/US/video/sto...
Reposted by Leo Feler
Looming problems from BLS statistics politicization. Social security benefits and many long term labor market contracts are indexed to the CPI. BLS makes the CPI. Recipients care about indexed cost of living increases, a lot.
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/1
August 4, 2025 at 9:50 PM
Looming problems from BLS statistics politicization. Social security benefits and many long term labor market contracts are indexed to the CPI. BLS makes the CPI. Recipients care about indexed cost of living increases, a lot.
/1
/1
"Outside recession" is doing a lot of work here. Big revisions aren't unusual during economic turning points.
GOLDMAN SACHS SAYS RECENT 2-MONTH JOB REVISIONS WERE LARGEST OUTSIDE RECESSION SINCE 1968. EXPECTS MORE BIG REVISIONS NEXT MONTH.
August 4, 2025 at 9:18 PM
"Outside recession" is doing a lot of work here. Big revisions aren't unusual during economic turning points.
Looking forward to our new Congressional districts in Illinois.
August 4, 2025 at 9:11 PM
Looking forward to our new Congressional districts in Illinois.
The BLS is like going to the doctor for preventive screenings. If there's bad news, you want to know it so you can take early and preventive action...
abcnews.go.com/US/video/eco...
abcnews.go.com/US/video/eco...
Video Economist says Bureau of Labor Statistics data is 'very objective'
Leo Feler, chief economist at Numerator, discusses how the Bureau of Labor Statistics collects and reports data, and what the firing of Commissioner Erika McEntarfer means for the agency's future.
abcnews.go.com
August 4, 2025 at 4:10 PM
The BLS is like going to the doctor for preventive screenings. If there's bad news, you want to know it so you can take early and preventive action...
abcnews.go.com/US/video/eco...
abcnews.go.com/US/video/eco...
Reposted by Leo Feler
It has been the honor of my life to serve as Commissioner of BLS alongside the many dedicated civil servants tasked with measuring a vast and dynamic economy. It is vital and important work and I thank them for their service to this nation.
August 2, 2025 at 2:18 AM
It has been the honor of my life to serve as Commissioner of BLS alongside the many dedicated civil servants tasked with measuring a vast and dynamic economy. It is vital and important work and I thank them for their service to this nation.
It's not as if people won't realize the jobs market is slowing and inflation is rising. But they'll figure out the hard way -- as they're looking for jobs, negotiating wages, shopping for everyday items.
This is going to make it harder for policymakers to react in time.
www.cnbc.com/2025/08/01/t...
This is going to make it harder for policymakers to react in time.
www.cnbc.com/2025/08/01/t...
Trump fires commissioner of labor statistics after weaker-than-expected jobs figures slam markets
Trump accused BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer of being a political appointee who was manipulating jobs data.
www.cnbc.com
August 1, 2025 at 7:20 PM
It's not as if people won't realize the jobs market is slowing and inflation is rising. But they'll figure out the hard way -- as they're looking for jobs, negotiating wages, shopping for everyday items.
This is going to make it harder for policymakers to react in time.
www.cnbc.com/2025/08/01/t...
This is going to make it harder for policymakers to react in time.
www.cnbc.com/2025/08/01/t...
Thanks to @barrons.com for featuring my op-ed on why the Fed is right to wait before continuing to cut interest rates.
www.barrons.com/articles/fed...
www.barrons.com/articles/fed...
Americans Are Sick of Inflation. There Is a Lesson for the Fed.
Price hikes are still consumers’ top concern even as official inflation rates slow, Leo Feler writes in a guest commentary.
www.barrons.com
July 29, 2025 at 4:14 PM
Thanks to @barrons.com for featuring my op-ed on why the Fed is right to wait before continuing to cut interest rates.
www.barrons.com/articles/fed...
www.barrons.com/articles/fed...
It's not every day that @tracyalloway.bsky.social mentions you in her Odd Lots newsletter. I have officially peaked!
cc: my all-star co-authors @shaciogluhoke.bsky.social and Jack Chylak.
www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
Thanks @tracyalloway.bsky.social and @bloomberg.com for featuring our work.
cc: my all-star co-authors @shaciogluhoke.bsky.social and Jack Chylak.
www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
Thanks @tracyalloway.bsky.social and @bloomberg.com for featuring our work.
July 21, 2025 at 4:41 PM
It's not every day that @tracyalloway.bsky.social mentions you in her Odd Lots newsletter. I have officially peaked!
cc: my all-star co-authors @shaciogluhoke.bsky.social and Jack Chylak.
www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
Thanks @tracyalloway.bsky.social and @bloomberg.com for featuring our work.
cc: my all-star co-authors @shaciogluhoke.bsky.social and Jack Chylak.
www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
Thanks @tracyalloway.bsky.social and @bloomberg.com for featuring our work.
And will all of that sugar be produced in the US or will it be imported from countries subject to 50% tariffs? Because the US can't produce that much sugar.
President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social that he had been in touch with Coca-Cola executives, who he wrote had agreed to produce the nation’s top-selling soft drink domestically using cane sugar, as it is done with Mexican Coca-Cola.
Trump says Coca-Cola to switch to cane sugar in U.S. — just like Mexican Coke
Coca-Cola did not confirm that it would be changing the formula to America’s top-selling soda anytime soon.
www.washingtonpost.com
July 17, 2025 at 1:55 AM
And will all of that sugar be produced in the US or will it be imported from countries subject to 50% tariffs? Because the US can't produce that much sugar.
Thanks to the @bloomberg.com team for having me on this morning. Great conversation about why we're not seeing tariffs having a meaningful impact on consumer prices yet, but that doesn't mean we're in the clear.
youtu.be/j0aUJzrPzIE?...
youtu.be/j0aUJzrPzIE?...
Bloomberg Surveillance 7/14/2025
YouTube video by Bloomberg Television
youtu.be
July 14, 2025 at 7:14 PM
Thanks to the @bloomberg.com team for having me on this morning. Great conversation about why we're not seeing tariffs having a meaningful impact on consumer prices yet, but that doesn't mean we're in the clear.
youtu.be/j0aUJzrPzIE?...
youtu.be/j0aUJzrPzIE?...
This is a huge understatement, @kairyssdal.bsky.social.
Deploying elite military forces against your own country and against your own people is what fascist, authoritarian governments do.
Deploying elite military forces against your own country and against your own people is what fascist, authoritarian governments do.
I just gonna go ahead and say that putting active duty United States Marines on the streets of an American city is, in fact, heavy handed.
June 8, 2025 at 5:46 PM
This is a huge understatement, @kairyssdal.bsky.social.
Deploying elite military forces against your own country and against your own people is what fascist, authoritarian governments do.
Deploying elite military forces against your own country and against your own people is what fascist, authoritarian governments do.
We asked 2,000 representative US households what one word they would use to describe the United States.
We asked 1,000 representative Canadian households what one word they would use to describe Canada.
Here are the results from our latest survey (May 1-7):
We asked 1,000 representative Canadian households what one word they would use to describe Canada.
Here are the results from our latest survey (May 1-7):
May 12, 2025 at 9:50 PM
We asked 2,000 representative US households what one word they would use to describe the United States.
We asked 1,000 representative Canadian households what one word they would use to describe Canada.
Here are the results from our latest survey (May 1-7):
We asked 1,000 representative Canadian households what one word they would use to describe Canada.
Here are the results from our latest survey (May 1-7):
Thanks for featuring our FEDS note, @adamshap.bsky.social!
“People's negative sentiment seems to be driven by the perception that incomes have not kept up with prices, even though real spending has increased, and by the effort they exerted to adapt to rising prices”
www.federalreserve.gov/econres/note...
www.federalreserve.gov/econres/note...
Tracking consumer sentiment versus how consumers are doing based on verified retail purchases
The Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington DC.
www.federalreserve.gov
May 12, 2025 at 12:57 PM
Thanks for featuring our FEDS note, @adamshap.bsky.social!
It's a good day to be a Leo from Chicago!
May 8, 2025 at 5:48 PM
It's a good day to be a Leo from Chicago!
"What one word would you use to describe the world today?"
Here is a word cloud of the responses of 1,000 representative US households from Numerator panel data.
Here is a word cloud of the responses of 1,000 representative US households from Numerator panel data.
April 18, 2025 at 2:39 PM
"What one word would you use to describe the world today?"
Here is a word cloud of the responses of 1,000 representative US households from Numerator panel data.
Here is a word cloud of the responses of 1,000 representative US households from Numerator panel data.
Powerful and important opinion piece by David Brooks:
What’s Happening Is Not Normal. America Needs an Uprising That Is Not Normal. www.nytimes.com/2025/04/17/o...
What’s Happening Is Not Normal. America Needs an Uprising That Is Not Normal. www.nytimes.com/2025/04/17/o...
Opinion | What’s Happening Is Not Normal. America Needs an Uprising That Is Not Normal.
It will take a concerted effort by every sector of our society to respond to Trumpism’s threat.
www.nytimes.com
April 18, 2025 at 4:06 AM
Powerful and important opinion piece by David Brooks:
What’s Happening Is Not Normal. America Needs an Uprising That Is Not Normal. www.nytimes.com/2025/04/17/o...
What’s Happening Is Not Normal. America Needs an Uprising That Is Not Normal. www.nytimes.com/2025/04/17/o...
Thanks to ABCNews for the opportunity to talk about tariffs, consumers & stocks
Sec. Bessent: happy to share w/ you Numerator's data so you can hear what 150,000 US households think about the market going down & how they're planning to cut back discretionary purchases
abcnews.go.com/US/video/mar...
Sec. Bessent: happy to share w/ you Numerator's data so you can hear what 150,000 US households think about the market going down & how they're planning to cut back discretionary purchases
abcnews.go.com/US/video/mar...
Video Markets will continue to drop with Trump tariffs in place: Economist
Numerator chief economist Leo Feler says President Donald Trump’s tariffs will make the market “worse, not better” for the foreseeable future.
abcnews.go.com
April 7, 2025 at 4:40 PM
Thanks to ABCNews for the opportunity to talk about tariffs, consumers & stocks
Sec. Bessent: happy to share w/ you Numerator's data so you can hear what 150,000 US households think about the market going down & how they're planning to cut back discretionary purchases
abcnews.go.com/US/video/mar...
Sec. Bessent: happy to share w/ you Numerator's data so you can hear what 150,000 US households think about the market going down & how they're planning to cut back discretionary purchases
abcnews.go.com/US/video/mar...