I think it's -38K for manufacturing and -78K for professional & business services.

If equity traders are not pricing-in all this tariff chaos, one possibility is they think either the Supreme Court will determine these tariffs are unconstitutional or Congress will eventually, perhaps after the midterms, stop abdicating its responsibilities and reverse these tariffs.

In the same way your doctor administers various tests and the data from those tests flow in to provide a more complete picture of your health, the BLS gets data that flows in to provide a more complete picture of the health of the economy. Revisions to the diagnosis are common as more data flows in.

We can already see that these tariffs are raising more revenue for the US Treasury, and pre-tariff import prices haven't fallen, so Americans are the ones paying for these tariffs. It's a consumption tax. And it's a tax that hits lower income consumers harder than higher income consumers.

But this is still bad for US consumers. We can't produce bananas and coffee in the US. We're a labor scarce country. Even if we produce more cars in the US, are we going to do it with more labor or more automation? I don't see a way that the average American benefits from all these tariffs.

I think the "elation" might be that it's just bad rather than catastrophic. 15% effective tariff rates are not as bad as 30%, and Trump originally anchored at 30%.

Except for economists -- we're looking for signals on what's happening to prices, discounts, and consumer behavior. This Prime Day might serve as an early indicator.