Laurent Bilke
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laubilk.alt.ms
Laurent Bilke
@laubilk.alt.ms
CEO and Head of Research at Alternative Macro Signals | NLP & ML applied to Macro | Economics and Monetary Policy | Digital Innovation Enthusiast | https://alt.ms
Interested in Language Models applied to economic analysis?
A unique internship position in France!
#EconSky
www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/43...
Alternative Macro Signals hiring Analyst Internship | Economist (6 months, Hybrid, French Alps) in Chamonix-Mont-Blanc, Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, France | LinkedIn
Posted 1:35:18 PM. Company DescriptionAlternative Macro Signals specializes in leveraging supervised machine learning…See this and similar jobs on LinkedIn.
www.linkedin.com
September 22, 2025 at 3:36 PM
Reposted by Laurent Bilke
Our measure of “inflation entrenchment” for ten rich countries reveals a linguistic divide
Why America can’t shake off inflation
Our measure of entrenchment suggests its problem is the rich world’s worst
econ.st
August 19, 2025 at 6:00 PM
Reposted by Laurent Bilke
The problem with having snap tariffs on complex supply chains is that it actually incentivizes offshoring production.
July 23, 2025 at 11:08 AM
The rerouting of Chinese goods from the US to Europe is causing congestion in European ports. 🚢🌍

This tariff shock is really unprecedented, causing inflation in the US and deflationary pressures in Europe -- which AMS inflation data has been reflecting for months now.

ti-insight.com/brief...
Chinese exports drive port congestion in Europe
Port congestion in Europe is hardly new. Long before the 2020s, there were warnings for insufficient capacity to support sustained growth.
ti-insight.com
July 2, 2025 at 10:00 AM
"The year of the European Union Linux desktop may finally arrive" : Yes!
Switched years ago: best IT decision ever, saving me hundreds of hours repairing something broken by automatic updates. Saving money, too, not being forced to upgrade servers every 3 years.
www.theregister.com/...
#linux
The European Union Linux desktop
Opinion: True digital sovereignty begins at the desktop
www.theregister.com
June 27, 2025 at 2:20 PM
Reposted by Laurent Bilke
Why am I so unimpressed by these strikes? Israel and the US have failed to target significant elements of Iran's nuclear materials and production infrastructure. RISING LION and MIDNIGHT HAMMER are tactically brilliant, but may turn out to be strategic failures. 🧵 1/17
June 23, 2025 at 1:27 AM
Reposted by Laurent Bilke
Another sign that the dollar’s dominance is in trouble: US importers are increasingly being asked by their foreign counterparties to settle transactions in currencies other than the US dollar, such as euros, RMB, Mexican pesos, and Canadian dollars.
Many Exporters No Longer Want Dollars, US Bank Executive Says
When Paula Comings, the head of currency sales for US Bancorp, talks to US importers, she increasingly hears the same message: Their foreign counterparties no longer want to be paid in dollars.
www.bloomberg.com
June 16, 2025 at 11:18 PM
European auto industry calling for help on China rare earth restrictions. Production chains to stop within weeks as only 1/4 of rare earth exports demands have been approved by Chinese authorities.
www.clepa.eu/insight...
#econsky
Urgent action needed as China's export restrictions on rare earths disrupt European automotive supply chains  | CLEPA
The European automotive supply industry is already experiencing significant disruption due to China’s recent export restrictions on rare earth elements and magnets. These restrictions have led to the shutdown of several production lines and plants across Europe, with further impacts expected in the coming weeks as inventories deplete. The current…
www.clepa.eu
June 5, 2025 at 12:00 PM
Reposted by Laurent Bilke
Falling responses, budgets & staff are biting. #BLS will cut 350 #ProducerPriceIndex #inflation sub-indexes.
It'll be harder to gauge effects of #supplychain disruptions, #tariffs, #monetary, #fiscal & #regulatory #policy and more.

www.bls.gov/ppi/notices/...
#econsky #PPI @aaronsojourner.org
BLS to Discontinue Selected PPIs
BLS to Discontinue Selected PPIs
www.bls.gov
May 22, 2025 at 5:46 PM
Reposted by Laurent Bilke
Biggest mistakes I'm seeing in early reporting (thread):

1. Tariffmageddon isn't over: Lotsa tariffs to account for, but the average tariff rate is only down around one quarter. So most of the pain of Liberation Day is still with us.
April 9, 2025 at 7:46 PM
Any other countries than the US, in Europe or anywhere really, going through 1/3 of the current US political turmoil would go through a sovereign crisis (yields shooting up, banks in trouble etc).

#EconSky #Finsky
April 9, 2025 at 10:00 AM
AMS Inflation News Volume Index in the US: a new all-time high (since 2018).

#inflation #econsky

April 8, 2025 at 4:30 PM
Reposted by Laurent Bilke
Pittsburgh-based aerospace company, which sells parts to the major aviation companies, has declared a force majeure in the wake of Trump's tariffs so it can break contract obligations
www.reuters.com/business/aer...
Exclusive: Aircraft supplier Howmet may halt orders if hit by Trump tariffs, letter says
Howmet Aerospace , which supplies parts for planes built by Airbus and Boeing , may halt some shipments if they are impacted by tariffs announced by U.S. President Donald Trump, according to a letter seen by Reuters.
www.reuters.com
April 5, 2025 at 10:44 PM
Why on earth would it be a "soft landing"? What would cause a recession, if not the largest tax hike and hit to consumer and business confidence in decades? #econsky #finsky
April 3, 2025 at 9:23 AM
A common argument against US sovereign risk is: "the Fed won't let it happen". Well, sure about that? To take credit risk on balance sheet, the Fed needs Treasury backing. #econsky #finsky
This does not bode well
Audience member: “What is your opinion on the Federal Reserve and do you have any intentions of doing anything with them?”

Elon Musk: “End the Fed!”

[maniacal laugh]

“…I always wanted to say that.”
March 31, 2025 at 12:45 PM
Still holds... The Fed can help smooth a recession, but averting a full blown sovereign crisis can't be done without Treasury and Central bank cooperating.
How would that be traightforward? #EconSky #FinSky
USD's "exorbitant privilege": if any other countries experienced a third of the current political turmoil in the US, its default probability and interest rates would skyrocket (with no return to Earth). 🚀 #EconSky #FinSky
March 11, 2025 at 3:29 AM
“Spending cut performance art”: Jefferies and Manhattan Institute on DOGE's actual impact... Saving between 2 and 10bn, so perhaps up 0.2% on the deficit.

#econsky

www.ft.com/content/8...
‘Doge’s actual impact is less than $10bn’
Jefferies Financial, welcome to the resistance
www.ft.com
March 5, 2025 at 4:40 PM
The volume of inflation news in the US was higher in Feb-25 than during COVID-19.

-- AMS News Volume Index measures the volume of news articles potentially relevant to the near-term inflation forecast, scanning through hundreds of thousands of news websites.

#inflation #NIPI #econsky
March 4, 2025 at 12:00 PM
Problem: Atlanta Fed GDP Tracker has turned negative, -1.5% in Q1-25

www.atlantafed.org/c...

#econsky
GDPNow
Provides a
www.atlantafed.org
March 3, 2025 at 1:00 PM
Illustrates the "second-round effects" of goods tariffs on services prices. Bean-counting the share of imported goods affected by tariffs is likely to underestimate the overall inflation impact.
gmauthority.com/blog...
#econsky
Trump Tariffs Will Make Car Insurance More Expensive: Report
Insurify predicts that new tariffs imposed and threatened by the Trump administration will make car insurance more expensive by making auto parts costlier.
gmauthority.com
February 27, 2025 at 1:00 PM