Kjølv Egeland
@kjolvegeland.bsky.social
Senior researcher at NORSAR. Working on international security, nuclear weapons, and climate politics.
Reposted by Kjølv Egeland
Seniorforsker ved NORSAR @kjolvegeland.bsky.social skriver i dag i Aftenposten om USAs signaler om mulig gjenopptakelse av atomtesting, og hva slike uttalelser kan bety for internasjonal sikkerhet og arbeidet med å overvåke kjernevåpenprøvesprengninger:
www.aftenposten.no/meninger/kro...
www.aftenposten.no/meninger/kro...
Vil Trump snu atompolitikken på hodet?
Det er flere ting som skurrer med Trumps uttalelse.
www.aftenposten.no
November 4, 2025 at 10:09 AM
Seniorforsker ved NORSAR @kjolvegeland.bsky.social skriver i dag i Aftenposten om USAs signaler om mulig gjenopptakelse av atomtesting, og hva slike uttalelser kan bety for internasjonal sikkerhet og arbeidet med å overvåke kjernevåpenprøvesprengninger:
www.aftenposten.no/meninger/kro...
www.aftenposten.no/meninger/kro...
I've been diving into the recent RAND report on how to design a ceasefire agreement between Russia & Ukraine.
The key message: the structure and components of an agreement matters. Political will is necessary, but probably not sufficient. 🧵
www.rand.org/pubs/researc...
The key message: the structure and components of an agreement matters. Political will is necessary, but probably not sufficient. 🧵
www.rand.org/pubs/researc...
Guidelines for Designing a Ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine War
Lessons from past ceasefire efforts offer actionable insights for the Russia-Ukraine war. Demilitarized zones, dispute-resolution mechanisms, third-party monitoring, and formal agreements have been as...
www.rand.org
October 16, 2025 at 7:34 AM
I've been diving into the recent RAND report on how to design a ceasefire agreement between Russia & Ukraine.
The key message: the structure and components of an agreement matters. Political will is necessary, but probably not sufficient. 🧵
www.rand.org/pubs/researc...
The key message: the structure and components of an agreement matters. Political will is necessary, but probably not sufficient. 🧵
www.rand.org/pubs/researc...
Reposted by Kjølv Egeland
Thanks for a very generous review of my book in @armscontrolnow.bsky.social by @naomiegel.bsky.social: "Extensively researched, with rich archival evidence and interviews ... The Struggle for Abolition is an important contribution." www.armscontrol.org/act/2025-06/...
The Struggle for Abolition: Power and Legitimacy in Multilateral Nuclear Disarmament Diplomacy | Arms Control Association
www.armscontrol.org
August 4, 2025 at 8:06 AM
Thanks for a very generous review of my book in @armscontrolnow.bsky.social by @naomiegel.bsky.social: "Extensively researched, with rich archival evidence and interviews ... The Struggle for Abolition is an important contribution." www.armscontrol.org/act/2025-06/...
Reposted by Kjølv Egeland
Interesting; Fortunately Grok got it right on the question whether the seismic event in Pakistan could have been a nuclear test (no!)- but it was based on wrong facts 😰 Kjølv Egeland at NORSAR explains why this is dangerous:
The spread of hearsay about nuclear or other strategic weapons tests is not new—but novel digital technologies have added a new layer of complexity to the grapevine.
"When Grok is wrong: The risks of AI chatbots spreading misinformation in a crisis," by @kjolvegeland.bsky.social.
"When Grok is wrong: The risks of AI chatbots spreading misinformation in a crisis," by @kjolvegeland.bsky.social.
When Grok is wrong: The risks of AI chatbots spreading misinformation in a crisis
Grok’s answer to a question of whether the May 12 seismic event in Pakistan could be from an underground nuclear test was probably harmless. But it shows how AI chatbots could spread nuclear misinform...
thebulletin.org
June 12, 2025 at 1:38 PM
Interesting; Fortunately Grok got it right on the question whether the seismic event in Pakistan could have been a nuclear test (no!)- but it was based on wrong facts 😰 Kjølv Egeland at NORSAR explains why this is dangerous:
Reposted by Kjølv Egeland
The spread of hearsay about nuclear or other strategic weapons tests is not new—but novel digital technologies have added a new layer of complexity to the grapevine.
"When Grok is wrong: The risks of AI chatbots spreading misinformation in a crisis," by @kjolvegeland.bsky.social.
"When Grok is wrong: The risks of AI chatbots spreading misinformation in a crisis," by @kjolvegeland.bsky.social.
When Grok is wrong: The risks of AI chatbots spreading misinformation in a crisis
Grok’s answer to a question of whether the May 12 seismic event in Pakistan could be from an underground nuclear test was probably harmless. But it shows how AI chatbots could spread nuclear misinform...
thebulletin.org
June 10, 2025 at 2:26 PM
The spread of hearsay about nuclear or other strategic weapons tests is not new—but novel digital technologies have added a new layer of complexity to the grapevine.
"When Grok is wrong: The risks of AI chatbots spreading misinformation in a crisis," by @kjolvegeland.bsky.social.
"When Grok is wrong: The risks of AI chatbots spreading misinformation in a crisis," by @kjolvegeland.bsky.social.
"Social media and AI-powered large language models certainly offer valuable sources of information. But they also risk facilitating the spread of misinformation more widely—and faster—than traditional modes of communication."
JUST IN: Grok’s answer to a question of whether the May 12 seismic event in Pakistan could be from an underground nuclear test was probably harmless. But it shows how AI chatbots could spread misinformation in a crisis, @kjolvegeland.bsky.social writes.
thebulletin.org/2025/06/when...
thebulletin.org/2025/06/when...
When Grok is wrong: The risks of AI chatbots spreading misinformation in a crisis
Grok’s answer to a question of whether the May 12 seismic event in Pakistan could be from an underground nuclear test was probably harmless. But it shows how AI chatbots could spread nuclear misinform...
thebulletin.org
June 10, 2025 at 9:13 AM
"Social media and AI-powered large language models certainly offer valuable sources of information. But they also risk facilitating the spread of misinformation more widely—and faster—than traditional modes of communication."
Reposted by Kjølv Egeland
Seniorforsker ved NORSAR @kjolvegeland.bsky.social skriver i dag i @morgenbladet.no om terrorbalansen mellom nabolandene og atomvåpenstatene India og Pakistan: www.morgenbladet.no/aktuelt/uten...
Kashmirsk rulett: To av verdens største militærmakter på randen av krig
Hvor lenge kan terrorbalansen mellom India og Pakistan holde?
www.morgenbladet.no
May 2, 2025 at 1:40 PM
Seniorforsker ved NORSAR @kjolvegeland.bsky.social skriver i dag i @morgenbladet.no om terrorbalansen mellom nabolandene og atomvåpenstatene India og Pakistan: www.morgenbladet.no/aktuelt/uten...
Reposted by Kjølv Egeland
Only just managed to read this in full, and as expected, it’s a great piece pulling together all the relevant literature. Give this a read! 👇
🚨New open access paper of mine on the connections between climate change and the politics of nuclear arms and disarmament.
Thanks to @erc.europa.eu and @belfercenter.bsky.social ‘Rethinking Nuclear Deterrence’ program for the support. academic.oup.com/isr/article/...
Thanks to @erc.europa.eu and @belfercenter.bsky.social ‘Rethinking Nuclear Deterrence’ program for the support. academic.oup.com/isr/article/...
Disentangling the Nexus of Nuclear Weapons and Climate Change—A Research Agenda
Abstract. Global warming and nuclear war are frequently described as the world's greatest threats. Both challenges could be understood as expressions of mo
academic.oup.com
April 17, 2025 at 4:51 PM
Only just managed to read this in full, and as expected, it’s a great piece pulling together all the relevant literature. Give this a read! 👇
Reposted by Kjølv Egeland
A classic:
US: "Please, take care of your defense yourself!"
EU: "Alright, we will build up our European defense industry and only buy European!"
US: "NOOO, NOT LIKE THAT!"
It will be interesting to see how this plays out this time, now that the US's reputation in Europe is in the toilet.
US: "Please, take care of your defense yourself!"
EU: "Alright, we will build up our European defense industry and only buy European!"
US: "NOOO, NOT LIKE THAT!"
It will be interesting to see how this plays out this time, now that the US's reputation in Europe is in the toilet.
US officials have told European allies they want them to keep buying American-made arms, amid recent moves by the European Union to limit US manufacturers' participation in weapons tenders, five sources familiar with the matter told Reuters reut.rs/4jjPyj7
US officials object to European push to buy weapons locally
U.S. officials have told European allies they want them to keep buying American-made arms, amid recent moves by the European Union to limit U.S. manufacturers' participation in weapons tenders, five sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.
reut.rs
April 2, 2025 at 8:01 AM
A classic:
US: "Please, take care of your defense yourself!"
EU: "Alright, we will build up our European defense industry and only buy European!"
US: "NOOO, NOT LIKE THAT!"
It will be interesting to see how this plays out this time, now that the US's reputation in Europe is in the toilet.
US: "Please, take care of your defense yourself!"
EU: "Alright, we will build up our European defense industry and only buy European!"
US: "NOOO, NOT LIKE THAT!"
It will be interesting to see how this plays out this time, now that the US's reputation in Europe is in the toilet.
🚨New open access paper of mine on the connections between climate change and the politics of nuclear arms and disarmament.
Thanks to @erc.europa.eu and @belfercenter.bsky.social ‘Rethinking Nuclear Deterrence’ program for the support. academic.oup.com/isr/article/...
Thanks to @erc.europa.eu and @belfercenter.bsky.social ‘Rethinking Nuclear Deterrence’ program for the support. academic.oup.com/isr/article/...
Disentangling the Nexus of Nuclear Weapons and Climate Change—A Research Agenda
Abstract. Global warming and nuclear war are frequently described as the world's greatest threats. Both challenges could be understood as expressions of mo
academic.oup.com
March 24, 2025 at 8:38 AM
🚨New open access paper of mine on the connections between climate change and the politics of nuclear arms and disarmament.
Thanks to @erc.europa.eu and @belfercenter.bsky.social ‘Rethinking Nuclear Deterrence’ program for the support. academic.oup.com/isr/article/...
Thanks to @erc.europa.eu and @belfercenter.bsky.social ‘Rethinking Nuclear Deterrence’ program for the support. academic.oup.com/isr/article/...
Interview with me and @russianforces.org in Norwegian outlet @nettavisen.no @thomaspaust.bsky.social on French nuclear policy and European security. Would Paris sacrifice Paris for Narva?
t.co/qWVqDQRFmT
t.co/qWVqDQRFmT
https://www.nettavisen.no/nyheter/fransk-atomparaply-tviler-pa-at-frankrike-vil-ofre-seg-for-norge/s/5-95-2322385
t.co
March 7, 2025 at 9:47 AM
Interview with me and @russianforces.org in Norwegian outlet @nettavisen.no @thomaspaust.bsky.social on French nuclear policy and European security. Would Paris sacrifice Paris for Narva?
t.co/qWVqDQRFmT
t.co/qWVqDQRFmT
Reposted by Kjølv Egeland
My Slate column on the lies, distortions, and one maybe-bright spot in the foreign policy section of Trump's speech. slate.com/news-and-pol...
Trump’s Plans for the Rest of the World Are Truly Unhinged
His foreign policy agenda is based on lies and strange fixations.
slate.com
March 5, 2025 at 5:58 AM
My Slate column on the lies, distortions, and one maybe-bright spot in the foreign policy section of Trump's speech. slate.com/news-and-pol...
Reposted by Kjølv Egeland
The €500 billion special fund only mentions 'energy infrastructure' - nothing about renewables/climate. This could change, as the Greens will have to support it. But it is yet another example of how drastically political priorities have changed since the Green Deal and 'green recovery' initiatives.
Here is the German document on the agreement of CDU/CSU and SPD. Includes ambition for rapid decision-making on priority defence procurement and reform of procurement procedures, both of which will be important to spend the money wisely:
March 4, 2025 at 8:13 PM
The €500 billion special fund only mentions 'energy infrastructure' - nothing about renewables/climate. This could change, as the Greens will have to support it. But it is yet another example of how drastically political priorities have changed since the Green Deal and 'green recovery' initiatives.
Reposted by Kjølv Egeland
So, Zombiedebate about European nuclear deterrence it is.
It's simple:
1. There won't be a European nuclear deterrence, as long as there is no true political union - so, very unlikely.
2. National nuclear programs will take too long and consume ressources badly needed for conventional defense.
It's simple:
1. There won't be a European nuclear deterrence, as long as there is no true political union - so, very unlikely.
2. National nuclear programs will take too long and consume ressources badly needed for conventional defense.
February 20, 2025 at 8:57 AM
So, Zombiedebate about European nuclear deterrence it is.
It's simple:
1. There won't be a European nuclear deterrence, as long as there is no true political union - so, very unlikely.
2. National nuclear programs will take too long and consume ressources badly needed for conventional defense.
It's simple:
1. There won't be a European nuclear deterrence, as long as there is no true political union - so, very unlikely.
2. National nuclear programs will take too long and consume ressources badly needed for conventional defense.
Reposted by Kjølv Egeland
"[Putin] is entirely in the driving seat despite the US spending the week alienating its own allies, giving Russia nearly all of what it wanted, buying Putin’s warped view of history, and Trump can’t even guarantee a meeting. The art of the deal, indeed."
Trump could have pushed for an end to the war in Ukraine without becoming actively hostile to Ukraine. Instead, he has imbibed Putin’s lies. Have written about the emergence of a new US/Russia axis, where it comes from and the staggering implications for Europe.
open.substack.com/pub/goodalla...
open.substack.com/pub/goodalla...
We're waking up to a new US/Russia axis
Why Trump clings to Putin.
open.substack.com
February 20, 2025 at 8:48 AM
"[Putin] is entirely in the driving seat despite the US spending the week alienating its own allies, giving Russia nearly all of what it wanted, buying Putin’s warped view of history, and Trump can’t even guarantee a meeting. The art of the deal, indeed."
I’m seeing lots of people claiming Europe is fine since the MAGA crowd hasn’t withdrawn the nuclear umbrella.
a man covering his nose with his hand while talking into a microphone in front of a wall with barclays advertisements
ALT: a man covering his nose with his hand while talking into a microphone in front of a wall with barclays advertisements
media.tenor.com
February 20, 2025 at 8:16 AM
I’m seeing lots of people claiming Europe is fine since the MAGA crowd hasn’t withdrawn the nuclear umbrella.
We’re lucky in Europe that the defense industry is much less influential here than in the US. Means we can buy stuff we actually need rather than the stuff the industry wants to produce.
February 20, 2025 at 8:13 AM
We’re lucky in Europe that the defense industry is much less influential here than in the US. Means we can buy stuff we actually need rather than the stuff the industry wants to produce.
But will the deep state let him do it? www.newsweek.com/donald-trump...
Donald Trump makes major nuclear weapons announcement
Trump told reporters his administration is open to restarting denuclearization talks on Thursday.
www.newsweek.com
February 14, 2025 at 6:18 AM
But will the deep state let him do it? www.newsweek.com/donald-trump...
New article on the concepts of trust and confidence in regime creation and sustainment. Relevant to conversations about verification, institution building. #NukeSky
journals.sagepub.com/eprint/ZRWZR...
journals.sagepub.com/eprint/ZRWZR...
Sage Journals: Discover world-class research
Subscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher.
journals.sagepub.com
December 9, 2024 at 9:48 AM
New article on the concepts of trust and confidence in regime creation and sustainment. Relevant to conversations about verification, institution building. #NukeSky
journals.sagepub.com/eprint/ZRWZR...
journals.sagepub.com/eprint/ZRWZR...
Reposted by Kjølv Egeland
🚨 4️⃣ positions to be filled! Join us in Frankfurt/Darmstadt for exciting work in #nuclear arms control, nonproliferation and disarmament at the crossroads of #science and policy! DLs mid-December and later, vary per position. Working language English. And we move into new fancy office spaces! 🚨
November 27, 2024 at 8:46 AM
Reposted by Kjølv Egeland
New publication - read the latest article from our colleague Dr Jan Ruzicka, co-authored with Campbell Craig and @kjolvegeland.bsky.social on US foreign policy and the Non-Proliferation Treaty
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
A subtle call to greatness: Unipolarity, US foreign policy, and the indefinite extension of the NPT | European Journal of International Security | Cambridge Core
A subtle call to greatness: Unipolarity, US foreign policy, and the indefinite extension of the NPT
www.cambridge.org
November 26, 2024 at 9:44 AM
New publication - read the latest article from our colleague Dr Jan Ruzicka, co-authored with Campbell Craig and @kjolvegeland.bsky.social on US foreign policy and the Non-Proliferation Treaty
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Contrary to expert predictions, the end of the Cold War and onset of unipolarity did not lead to an increase in nuclear proliferation or the collapse of the NPT. Quite the contrary, longtime holdout joined the nonproliferation regime and the NPT was indefinitely and unconditionally extended. Why?
New article out today with Campbell Craig and Jan Ruzicka on nonproliferation and unipolarity 🚨
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
November 20, 2024 at 7:11 PM
Contrary to expert predictions, the end of the Cold War and onset of unipolarity did not lead to an increase in nuclear proliferation or the collapse of the NPT. Quite the contrary, longtime holdout joined the nonproliferation regime and the NPT was indefinitely and unconditionally extended. Why?
New article out today with Campbell Craig and Jan Ruzicka on nonproliferation and unipolarity 🚨
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
November 19, 2024 at 4:33 PM
New article out today with Campbell Craig and Jan Ruzicka on nonproliferation and unipolarity 🚨
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...