Kevin Erdmann
@kevinerdmann.bsky.social
I discovered the surprising story of what really happened in 2008 (not enough housing) and accidentally became a housing policy guy.
https://kevinerdmann.substack.com/
https://www.amazon.com/stores/Kevin-Erdmann/author/B099P7SN1G
https://kevinerdmann.substack.com/
https://www.amazon.com/stores/Kevin-Erdmann/author/B099P7SN1G
Oh great. For the next few days, everyone’s going to be reminding each other of that thing that definitely happened when the GSEs caused a financial collapse by significantly loosening their lending standards.
These kinds of things happened two decades ago under the last Republican president. A lot of people made a lot of short term money. Then it all came crashing down and his successor had to clean up a huge mess. Here we go again.
November 11, 2025 at 2:54 PM
Oh great. For the next few days, everyone’s going to be reminding each other of that thing that definitely happened when the GSEs caused a financial collapse by significantly loosening their lending standards.
Voters were mad about high prices and people freeloading off of government support, so we raised tariffs in order to send everyone $2,000.
November 10, 2025 at 10:50 PM
Voters were mad about high prices and people freeloading off of government support, so we raised tariffs in order to send everyone $2,000.
A 10-year old chart that already had the whole story, even though in most places, most of the crisis has developed in the following decade.
If your avg rent/income is high even with higher incomes, the high incomes are from poor families migrating away. Failure, not success.
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If your avg rent/income is high even with higher incomes, the high incomes are from poor families migrating away. Failure, not success.
1/
November 10, 2025 at 6:12 PM
A 10-year old chart that already had the whole story, even though in most places, most of the crisis has developed in the following decade.
If your avg rent/income is high even with higher incomes, the high incomes are from poor families migrating away. Failure, not success.
1/
If your avg rent/income is high even with higher incomes, the high incomes are from poor families migrating away. Failure, not success.
1/
Reposted by Kevin Erdmann
Feist and Olivia Rodrigo performing "We're going to be friends" www.youtube.com/watch?v=n-kZ...
Olivia Rodrigo - We’re going to be friends Live at Rock & Roll Hall Of Fame
YouTube video by Hearts4livie
www.youtube.com
November 10, 2025 at 5:03 PM
Feist and Olivia Rodrigo performing "We're going to be friends" www.youtube.com/watch?v=n-kZ...
SNL just had a joke about how Gen Z doesn’t like cash.
My daughter scoffed at it and said they were wrong about that.
Gen Z like to get cash, she said. It’s fun to spend it because it doesn’t seem like real money.
😅😅
My daughter scoffed at it and said they were wrong about that.
Gen Z like to get cash, she said. It’s fun to spend it because it doesn’t seem like real money.
😅😅
November 9, 2025 at 8:00 PM
SNL just had a joke about how Gen Z doesn’t like cash.
My daughter scoffed at it and said they were wrong about that.
Gen Z like to get cash, she said. It’s fun to spend it because it doesn’t seem like real money.
😅😅
My daughter scoffed at it and said they were wrong about that.
Gen Z like to get cash, she said. It’s fun to spend it because it doesn’t seem like real money.
😅😅
Reposted by Kevin Erdmann
“I want you to understand what it is like to live in Chicago during this time.”
aphyr.com/posts/397-i-...
aphyr.com/posts/397-i-...
November 9, 2025 at 5:26 PM
“I want you to understand what it is like to live in Chicago during this time.”
aphyr.com/posts/397-i-...
aphyr.com/posts/397-i-...
The other thing that is just baffling on this is the certainty that so many otherwise intelligent people have that lowering monthly payments won’t help because it will raise home prices.
Monthly payments are hella higher today than they were 4 years ago. How much higher were prices 4 years ago?
Monthly payments are hella higher today than they were 4 years ago. How much higher were prices 4 years ago?
Do people who think longer amortized fixed payment mortgages are an artificial subsidy also think paying rent is a demand subsidy? After all, rent payments increase every year and a 50 year mortgage payment would be fixed?
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November 8, 2025 at 11:41 PM
The other thing that is just baffling on this is the certainty that so many otherwise intelligent people have that lowering monthly payments won’t help because it will raise home prices.
Monthly payments are hella higher today than they were 4 years ago. How much higher were prices 4 years ago?
Monthly payments are hella higher today than they were 4 years ago. How much higher were prices 4 years ago?
Do people who think longer amortized fixed payment mortgages are an artificial subsidy also think paying rent is a demand subsidy? After all, rent payments increase every year and a 50 year mortgage payment would be fixed?
1/
1/
November 8, 2025 at 11:14 PM
Do people who think longer amortized fixed payment mortgages are an artificial subsidy also think paying rent is a demand subsidy? After all, rent payments increase every year and a 50 year mortgage payment would be fixed?
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Reposted by Kevin Erdmann
Christ, his farts must REALLY smell
November 7, 2025 at 8:59 AM
Christ, his farts must REALLY smell
Incredible that in the year 2025 leading housing economists are still entirely ignorant about the effects of eliminatimy most of the sub-740 credit score mortgage market in 2008.
It’s like astronomers not knowing about the moon.
knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/what...
It’s like astronomers not knowing about the moon.
knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/what...
What Will It Take to Solve America’s Housing Crisis?
New research from Wharton professor Joseph Gyourko looks back 50 years to explain why home prices are so high now.
knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu
November 6, 2025 at 11:51 PM
Incredible that in the year 2025 leading housing economists are still entirely ignorant about the effects of eliminatimy most of the sub-740 credit score mortgage market in 2008.
It’s like astronomers not knowing about the moon.
knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/what...
It’s like astronomers not knowing about the moon.
knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/what...
This is definitely a problem in housing. Lots of confused discourse gets puked out in conversations about high costs.
The cost of living in NYC is determined by the cost required to get 100,000 families to choose to leave.
marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevo...
The cost of living in NYC is determined by the cost required to get 100,000 families to choose to leave.
marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevo...
I worry about "affordability politics" - Marginal REVOLUTION
It focuses the listener’s attention on price rather than quantity. To many people it sounds better than “economic growth,” though often for the wrong reasons. I cover related points in my latest Fre...
marginalrevolution.com
November 6, 2025 at 8:04 PM
This is definitely a problem in housing. Lots of confused discourse gets puked out in conversations about high costs.
The cost of living in NYC is determined by the cost required to get 100,000 families to choose to leave.
marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevo...
The cost of living in NYC is determined by the cost required to get 100,000 families to choose to leave.
marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevo...
Reposted by Kevin Erdmann
It’s hard to believe but there was a cartoon about an immigrant mouse and it was seen as totally fine and not controversial and not woke because it was an aspirational and nice thing about America that people could come here and find a better life
November 5, 2025 at 9:08 PM
It’s hard to believe but there was a cartoon about an immigrant mouse and it was seen as totally fine and not controversial and not woke because it was an aspirational and nice thing about America that people could come here and find a better life
Reposted by Kevin Erdmann
Trump is utterly a creature of self preservation and if he continues to sink he’ll find people to blame.
May I nominate Stephen Miller.
May I nominate Stephen Miller.
November 6, 2025 at 1:11 AM
Trump is utterly a creature of self preservation and if he continues to sink he’ll find people to blame.
May I nominate Stephen Miller.
May I nominate Stephen Miller.
Reposted by Kevin Erdmann
NEW: Judge Gettleman just ordered ICE to improve "serious conditions" inside its Broadview facility in Chicago.
Yesterday, people testified in court that they were crammed into overcrowded and filthy cells for days, with little access to lawyers, and pressured into deportation.
Yesterday, people testified in court that they were crammed into overcrowded and filthy cells for days, with little access to lawyers, and pressured into deportation.
November 5, 2025 at 11:19 PM
NEW: Judge Gettleman just ordered ICE to improve "serious conditions" inside its Broadview facility in Chicago.
Yesterday, people testified in court that they were crammed into overcrowded and filthy cells for days, with little access to lawyers, and pressured into deportation.
Yesterday, people testified in court that they were crammed into overcrowded and filthy cells for days, with little access to lawyers, and pressured into deportation.
Reposted by Kevin Erdmann
“Jean-Paul Sartre once wrote that bad faith is not ignorance but refusal, the conscious act of pretending not to know what one knows, a form of spiritual cowardice disguised as moral surety. The absurdity is the point, it liberates him from the burden of coherence…”
open.substack.com/pub/theratio...
open.substack.com/pub/theratio...
The Vacancy of the MAGA Mind
The quiet relief of no longer having to think.
open.substack.com
November 4, 2025 at 12:17 AM
“Jean-Paul Sartre once wrote that bad faith is not ignorance but refusal, the conscious act of pretending not to know what one knows, a form of spiritual cowardice disguised as moral surety. The absurdity is the point, it liberates him from the burden of coherence…”
open.substack.com/pub/theratio...
open.substack.com/pub/theratio...
Health care prices relative to prices for all personal expenditures.
November 3, 2025 at 10:09 PM
Health care prices relative to prices for all personal expenditures.
Reposted by Kevin Erdmann
It doesn’t get more pathetic than this. What a complete loser.
November 2, 2025 at 9:06 PM
It doesn’t get more pathetic than this. What a complete loser.
Reposted by Kevin Erdmann
This doesn’t look at all like we’re forgiving any trespasses.
Add a dose of propaganda to your morning coffee.. This smells of Russian-like “special operation”
November 2, 2025 at 8:33 PM
This doesn’t look at all like we’re forgiving any trespasses.
Reposted by Kevin Erdmann
The USDA sent an email to grocery stores telling them they are prohibited from offering special discounts to customers affected by the SNAP funding lapse.
I'm aware of at least 2 stores that had offered struggling customers a discount, then withdrew it after receiving this email
I'm aware of at least 2 stores that had offered struggling customers a discount, then withdrew it after receiving this email
November 2, 2025 at 7:01 PM
The USDA sent an email to grocery stores telling them they are prohibited from offering special discounts to customers affected by the SNAP funding lapse.
I'm aware of at least 2 stores that had offered struggling customers a discount, then withdrew it after receiving this email
I'm aware of at least 2 stores that had offered struggling customers a discount, then withdrew it after receiving this email
DR Horton's earnings report says, "New home demand is still being impacted by ongoing affordability constraints." as a reason why they are discounting from their menu prices.
Real estate language is so weird.
Kohl's doesn't say their 50% discount coupons are due to "affordability constraints".
Real estate language is so weird.
Kohl's doesn't say their 50% discount coupons are due to "affordability constraints".
November 2, 2025 at 7:13 PM
DR Horton's earnings report says, "New home demand is still being impacted by ongoing affordability constraints." as a reason why they are discounting from their menu prices.
Real estate language is so weird.
Kohl's doesn't say their 50% discount coupons are due to "affordability constraints".
Real estate language is so weird.
Kohl's doesn't say their 50% discount coupons are due to "affordability constraints".
Reposted by Kevin Erdmann
Kash Patel was angry about his publicly-available jet logs indicating he’d flown to see his musician girlfriend perform so he forced out a senior FBI official overseeing aviation, Bloomberg reports
news.bloomberglaw.com/us-law-week/...
news.bloomberglaw.com/us-law-week/...
November 2, 2025 at 12:51 AM
Kash Patel was angry about his publicly-available jet logs indicating he’d flown to see his musician girlfriend perform so he forced out a senior FBI official overseeing aviation, Bloomberg reports
news.bloomberglaw.com/us-law-week/...
news.bloomberglaw.com/us-law-week/...
Reposted by Kevin Erdmann
November 2, 2025 at 3:19 AM
Reposted by Kevin Erdmann
God I bloody love economists. This one zeroes in on Rand Paul’s tweet complaining about the number of people on food stamps. And while he doesn’t touch on income inequity vs cost of living, he does explain the cost for SNAP now vs pre-pandemic.
November 1, 2025 at 2:39 AM
God I bloody love economists. This one zeroes in on Rand Paul’s tweet complaining about the number of people on food stamps. And while he doesn’t touch on income inequity vs cost of living, he does explain the cost for SNAP now vs pre-pandemic.