Kevin Erdmann
@kevinerdmann.bsky.social
I discovered the surprising story of what really happened in 2008 (not enough housing) and accidentally became a housing policy guy.
https://kevinerdmann.substack.com/
https://www.amazon.com/stores/Kevin-Erdmann/author/B099P7SN1G
https://kevinerdmann.substack.com/
https://www.amazon.com/stores/Kevin-Erdmann/author/B099P7SN1G
A 10-year old chart that already had the whole story, even though in most places, most of the crisis has developed in the following decade.
If your avg rent/income is high even with higher incomes, the high incomes are from poor families migrating away. Failure, not success.
1/
If your avg rent/income is high even with higher incomes, the high incomes are from poor families migrating away. Failure, not success.
1/
November 10, 2025 at 6:12 PM
A 10-year old chart that already had the whole story, even though in most places, most of the crisis has developed in the following decade.
If your avg rent/income is high even with higher incomes, the high incomes are from poor families migrating away. Failure, not success.
1/
If your avg rent/income is high even with higher incomes, the high incomes are from poor families migrating away. Failure, not success.
1/
Health care prices relative to prices for all personal expenditures.
November 3, 2025 at 10:09 PM
Health care prices relative to prices for all personal expenditures.
Baltimore has less of a shortage than most other cities, but every city has a shortage post-2008. Here's price/income ratios across Baltimore, by ZIP code income. This systematically always is the result of underbuilding. It doesn't matter what doesn't get built, costs rise at the low end.
October 31, 2025 at 10:48 PM
Baltimore has less of a shortage than most other cities, but every city has a shortage post-2008. Here's price/income ratios across Baltimore, by ZIP code income. This systematically always is the result of underbuilding. It doesn't matter what doesn't get built, costs rise at the low end.
Here's a go at a housing elevator speech if you find yourself stuck in an elevator and want to annoy people.
October 29, 2025 at 11:36 PM
Here's a go at a housing elevator speech if you find yourself stuck in an elevator and want to annoy people.
In January 2015, I thought, "Maybe I'll blog about housing."
That became a 365 post series as I slowly discovered that the US had an underappreciated lack of adequate supply.
A decade of unprecedented rent inflation followed, and yet I'm still the "contrarian".
That became a 365 post series as I slowly discovered that the US had an underappreciated lack of adequate supply.
A decade of unprecedented rent inflation followed, and yet I'm still the "contrarian".
October 29, 2025 at 9:30 PM
In January 2015, I thought, "Maybe I'll blog about housing."
That became a 365 post series as I slowly discovered that the US had an underappreciated lack of adequate supply.
A decade of unprecedented rent inflation followed, and yet I'm still the "contrarian".
That became a 365 post series as I slowly discovered that the US had an underappreciated lack of adequate supply.
A decade of unprecedented rent inflation followed, and yet I'm still the "contrarian".
I think today's post is a good synthesis of the supply vs. demand question.
The Case-Shiller chart is a chart about a supply crisis!
What the Case-Shiller Home Price Chart Really Tells Us
open.substack.com/pub/kevinerd...
The Case-Shiller chart is a chart about a supply crisis!
What the Case-Shiller Home Price Chart Really Tells Us
open.substack.com/pub/kevinerd...
October 29, 2025 at 4:27 PM
I think today's post is a good synthesis of the supply vs. demand question.
The Case-Shiller chart is a chart about a supply crisis!
What the Case-Shiller Home Price Chart Really Tells Us
open.substack.com/pub/kevinerd...
The Case-Shiller chart is a chart about a supply crisis!
What the Case-Shiller Home Price Chart Really Tells Us
open.substack.com/pub/kevinerd...
Quantifying Agglomeration Value vs. Scarcity open.substack.com/pub/kevinerd...
October 28, 2025 at 6:22 PM
Quantifying Agglomeration Value vs. Scarcity open.substack.com/pub/kevinerd...
Did Covid cause a permanent cultural shift? Was there a change in data methodology?
fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1NsA5
fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1NsA5
October 27, 2025 at 8:35 PM
Did Covid cause a permanent cultural shift? Was there a change in data methodology?
fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1NsA5
fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1NsA5
Lord, grant me the confidence of people who in October 2025 are still committed to blaming Fed interest rate targets for high home prices.
October 27, 2025 at 4:47 AM
Lord, grant me the confidence of people who in October 2025 are still committed to blaming Fed interest rate targets for high home prices.
I described various ways to use the data in a series of posts this week.
Here's a post where I compared lot premium trends in different markets.
For diversified investors or developers, I think these cross-sectional comparisons could be useful.
kevinerdmann.substack.com/p/metro-area...
Here's a post where I compared lot premium trends in different markets.
For diversified investors or developers, I think these cross-sectional comparisons could be useful.
kevinerdmann.substack.com/p/metro-area...
October 24, 2025 at 7:35 PM
I described various ways to use the data in a series of posts this week.
Here's a post where I compared lot premium trends in different markets.
For diversified investors or developers, I think these cross-sectional comparisons could be useful.
kevinerdmann.substack.com/p/metro-area...
Here's a post where I compared lot premium trends in different markets.
For diversified investors or developers, I think these cross-sectional comparisons could be useful.
kevinerdmann.substack.com/p/metro-area...
I have been describing these new analytical packages for individual housing markets in posts this week. I am making them available at a reduced price for those who order them before November 15.
Erdmann Metro Area Housing Estimates
open.substack.com/pub/kevinerd...
Erdmann Metro Area Housing Estimates
open.substack.com/pub/kevinerd...
October 24, 2025 at 7:22 PM
I have been describing these new analytical packages for individual housing markets in posts this week. I am making them available at a reduced price for those who order them before November 15.
Erdmann Metro Area Housing Estimates
open.substack.com/pub/kevinerd...
Erdmann Metro Area Housing Estimates
open.substack.com/pub/kevinerd...
I'll be in New York City on November 7 for ResiDay 2025.
Lance has a great line up this year. Excited to be a part of it.
luma.com/ResiDay2025
Lance has a great line up this year. Excited to be a part of it.
luma.com/ResiDay2025
October 22, 2025 at 5:44 PM
I'll be in New York City on November 7 for ResiDay 2025.
Lance has a great line up this year. Excited to be a part of it.
luma.com/ResiDay2025
Lance has a great line up this year. Excited to be a part of it.
luma.com/ResiDay2025
Whenever someone compares real estate & stock returns over the long term, the majority of replies are about leverage, but average corporate leverage and real estate leverage over time are pretty similar.
fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1NeEd
fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1NeEd
October 19, 2025 at 9:25 PM
Whenever someone compares real estate & stock returns over the long term, the majority of replies are about leverage, but average corporate leverage and real estate leverage over time are pretty similar.
fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1NeEd
fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1NeEd
Single family home completions over the past 10 years.
So many real estate conversations seem to presume a very different chart.
fred.stlouisfed.org/series/COMPU...
So many real estate conversations seem to presume a very different chart.
fred.stlouisfed.org/series/COMPU...
October 19, 2025 at 6:45 PM
Single family home completions over the past 10 years.
So many real estate conversations seem to presume a very different chart.
fred.stlouisfed.org/series/COMPU...
So many real estate conversations seem to presume a very different chart.
fred.stlouisfed.org/series/COMPU...
A jump in mortgage rates from 3% to 7% could arguably be responsible for this (get out your magnifying glass if you need to) yet all anyone talks about is rates, rates, rates.
A world full of quants, AI, etc., yet also unempirical. Y'all are weirdos.
A world full of quants, AI, etc., yet also unempirical. Y'all are weirdos.
October 16, 2025 at 5:47 PM
A jump in mortgage rates from 3% to 7% could arguably be responsible for this (get out your magnifying glass if you need to) yet all anyone talks about is rates, rates, rates.
A world full of quants, AI, etc., yet also unempirical. Y'all are weirdos.
A world full of quants, AI, etc., yet also unempirical. Y'all are weirdos.
Today’s microecon riddle:
Yesterday, at a diner, my breakfast came with a choice of toast or a pastry. Same price.
I chose the pastry, which might last me into November.
Yesterday, at a diner, my breakfast came with a choice of toast or a pastry. Same price.
I chose the pastry, which might last me into November.
October 15, 2025 at 5:04 PM
Today’s microecon riddle:
Yesterday, at a diner, my breakfast came with a choice of toast or a pastry. Same price.
I chose the pastry, which might last me into November.
Yesterday, at a diner, my breakfast came with a choice of toast or a pastry. Same price.
I chose the pastry, which might last me into November.
All of the events shown in "The Big Short", the movie about an out-of-control financial sector fueling unsustainable homeownership, take place in the circled time period.
October 9, 2025 at 11:20 PM
All of the events shown in "The Big Short", the movie about an out-of-control financial sector fueling unsustainable homeownership, take place in the circled time period.
"There is a great deal of ruin in a nation." has never been more amply demonstrated in my lifetime.
October 6, 2025 at 11:01 PM
"There is a great deal of ruin in a nation." has never been more amply demonstrated in my lifetime.
An update on a neighborhood and comments on rental investors
open.substack.com/pub/kevinerd...
open.substack.com/pub/kevinerd...
October 6, 2025 at 6:12 PM
An update on a neighborhood and comments on rental investors
open.substack.com/pub/kevinerd...
open.substack.com/pub/kevinerd...
These are SO good. Man oh man.
October 4, 2025 at 9:41 PM
These are SO good. Man oh man.
The White House is apparently doing damage control and they have called all the generals back to Quantico for another address.
They’re bringing in an outsider this time.
They’re bringing in an outsider this time.
October 4, 2025 at 4:46 AM
The White House is apparently doing damage control and they have called all the generals back to Quantico for another address.
They’re bringing in an outsider this time.
They’re bringing in an outsider this time.
America, your time has come. You know what to do.
youtu.be/f9aM_dT5VMI?...
youtu.be/f9aM_dT5VMI?...
October 3, 2025 at 6:27 PM
America, your time has come. You know what to do.
youtu.be/f9aM_dT5VMI?...
youtu.be/f9aM_dT5VMI?...
Mortgage Affordability
open.substack.com/pub/kevinerd...
open.substack.com/pub/kevinerd...
October 2, 2025 at 4:40 PM
Mortgage Affordability
open.substack.com/pub/kevinerd...
open.substack.com/pub/kevinerd...
Wait. I think I missed this.
Arizona Democrats don't think renters are "everyday families".
Governor Hobbs Offers Alternative Housing Plan, Adding New Restrictions www.kawc.org/news/2025-03...
Arizona Democrats don't think renters are "everyday families".
Governor Hobbs Offers Alternative Housing Plan, Adding New Restrictions www.kawc.org/news/2025-03...
October 1, 2025 at 7:49 PM
Wait. I think I missed this.
Arizona Democrats don't think renters are "everyday families".
Governor Hobbs Offers Alternative Housing Plan, Adding New Restrictions www.kawc.org/news/2025-03...
Arizona Democrats don't think renters are "everyday families".
Governor Hobbs Offers Alternative Housing Plan, Adding New Restrictions www.kawc.org/news/2025-03...
"Looking out across this crowd, my immediate reaction is, we've got to get rid of this DEI nonsense. AmIRight, folks?!"
October 1, 2025 at 3:15 AM
"Looking out across this crowd, my immediate reaction is, we've got to get rid of this DEI nonsense. AmIRight, folks?!"