Kevin Erdmann
@kevinerdmann.bsky.social
I discovered the surprising story of what really happened in 2008 (not enough housing) and accidentally became a housing policy guy.
https://kevinerdmann.substack.com/
https://www.amazon.com/stores/Kevin-Erdmann/author/B099P7SN1G
https://kevinerdmann.substack.com/
https://www.amazon.com/stores/Kevin-Erdmann/author/B099P7SN1G
Let's say a family's problem is that the rent on the home they have lived in for 20 years has gone from 30% of their income to 45%.
You could either support "luxury" housing that will lower rents across the market or "affordable" subsidized housing meant to serve this family directly.
1/
You could either support "luxury" housing that will lower rents across the market or "affordable" subsidized housing meant to serve this family directly.
1/
February 12, 2026 at 7:06 PM
Let's say a family's problem is that the rent on the home they have lived in for 20 years has gone from 30% of their income to 45%.
You could either support "luxury" housing that will lower rents across the market or "affordable" subsidized housing meant to serve this family directly.
1/
You could either support "luxury" housing that will lower rents across the market or "affordable" subsidized housing meant to serve this family directly.
1/
Reposted by Kevin Erdmann
A misguided letter from the SF Fed.
GIGO from the San Francisco Fed
open.substack.com/pub/kevinerd...
GIGO from the San Francisco Fed
open.substack.com/pub/kevinerd...
GIGO from the San Francisco Fed
I recently highlighted a really interesting new paper that provides some interesting insights about housing in spite of the blind spots about the current market among economists.
open.substack.com
February 12, 2026 at 4:55 AM
A misguided letter from the SF Fed.
GIGO from the San Francisco Fed
open.substack.com/pub/kevinerd...
GIGO from the San Francisco Fed
open.substack.com/pub/kevinerd...
A misguided letter from the SF Fed.
GIGO from the San Francisco Fed
open.substack.com/pub/kevinerd...
GIGO from the San Francisco Fed
open.substack.com/pub/kevinerd...
GIGO from the San Francisco Fed
I recently highlighted a really interesting new paper that provides some interesting insights about housing in spite of the blind spots about the current market among economists.
open.substack.com
February 12, 2026 at 4:55 AM
A misguided letter from the SF Fed.
GIGO from the San Francisco Fed
open.substack.com/pub/kevinerd...
GIGO from the San Francisco Fed
open.substack.com/pub/kevinerd...
Reposted by Kevin Erdmann
The math:
Parking spaces in the US: 1-2B (estimates vary)
Area per parking space: 250-350 square feet (includes drive aisles)
Cars in the US: 300M
Area per car: 833-2,333 square feet
Average housing square footage per American: 741
(from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2020 data)
Parking spaces in the US: 1-2B (estimates vary)
Area per parking space: 250-350 square feet (includes drive aisles)
Cars in the US: 300M
Area per car: 833-2,333 square feet
Average housing square footage per American: 741
(from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2020 data)
February 11, 2026 at 6:06 PM
The math:
Parking spaces in the US: 1-2B (estimates vary)
Area per parking space: 250-350 square feet (includes drive aisles)
Cars in the US: 300M
Area per car: 833-2,333 square feet
Average housing square footage per American: 741
(from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2020 data)
Parking spaces in the US: 1-2B (estimates vary)
Area per parking space: 250-350 square feet (includes drive aisles)
Cars in the US: 300M
Area per car: 833-2,333 square feet
Average housing square footage per American: 741
(from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2020 data)
Reposted by Kevin Erdmann
When I got the contract to write a history of concentration camps in 2014, I hoped to keep the US from ending up here. That didn't work out! But now it's critical to understand how much is already in process and the enormity of what's coming. The sooner we act to stop it, the more people we'll save.
Building the camps
The warehouseification of detention and initial thoughts on stopping it.
degenerateart.beehiiv.com
February 11, 2026 at 2:24 AM
When I got the contract to write a history of concentration camps in 2014, I hoped to keep the US from ending up here. That didn't work out! But now it's critical to understand how much is already in process and the enormity of what's coming. The sooner we act to stop it, the more people we'll save.
Reposted by Kevin Erdmann
Team USA Curler Rich Ruohonen:
"We'd be remiss if we didn't at least mention what's going on in Minnesota...I am a lawyer, as you know, and we have a constitution... and what's happening in Minnesota is wrong. There's no shades of gray. It's clear."
"We'd be remiss if we didn't at least mention what's going on in Minnesota...I am a lawyer, as you know, and we have a constitution... and what's happening in Minnesota is wrong. There's no shades of gray. It's clear."
February 10, 2026 at 9:00 PM
Team USA Curler Rich Ruohonen:
"We'd be remiss if we didn't at least mention what's going on in Minnesota...I am a lawyer, as you know, and we have a constitution... and what's happening in Minnesota is wrong. There's no shades of gray. It's clear."
"We'd be remiss if we didn't at least mention what's going on in Minnesota...I am a lawyer, as you know, and we have a constitution... and what's happening in Minnesota is wrong. There's no shades of gray. It's clear."
Reposted by Kevin Erdmann
Super Bowl viewers Sunday speculated that 5-year-old Liam Conejo Ramos appeared in the halftime show. In fact, he has been in hiding with his family.
“He can’t sleep well at night. He wakes up three or four times a night screaming, ‘Daddy, Daddy,’” Liam's father Adrian Conejo Arias, said.
“He can’t sleep well at night. He wakes up three or four times a night screaming, ‘Daddy, Daddy,’” Liam's father Adrian Conejo Arias, said.
‘He’s not the same’: Father of Liam Conejo Ramos says 5-year-old continues to suffer
Some people thought they say the 5-year-old during the Super Bowl halftime show. But Liam is still in hiding with his family, after he and his father were detained and then released from a Texas deten...
www.mprnews.org
February 10, 2026 at 1:11 AM
Super Bowl viewers Sunday speculated that 5-year-old Liam Conejo Ramos appeared in the halftime show. In fact, he has been in hiding with his family.
“He can’t sleep well at night. He wakes up three or four times a night screaming, ‘Daddy, Daddy,’” Liam's father Adrian Conejo Arias, said.
“He can’t sleep well at night. He wakes up three or four times a night screaming, ‘Daddy, Daddy,’” Liam's father Adrian Conejo Arias, said.
Do I have to boycott I Love Lucy?
a man is playing a drum while a woman watches in a black and white photo
ALT: a man is playing a drum while a woman watches in a black and white photo
media.tenor.com
February 10, 2026 at 2:32 AM
Do I have to boycott I Love Lucy?
Reposted by Kevin Erdmann
@kevinerdmann.bsky.social just discussed the terrific paper by MIT PhD student Vincent Rollet, who was on the @somervilleyimby.org and A Better Cambridge panel on Zoning for Affordability last October.
February 9, 2026 at 10:12 PM
@kevinerdmann.bsky.social just discussed the terrific paper by MIT PhD student Vincent Rollet, who was on the @somervilleyimby.org and A Better Cambridge panel on Zoning for Affordability last October.
Reposted by Kevin Erdmann
Here’s a link to the video of the panel. www.youtube.com/watch?v=JqkT...
Zoning Lessons For Housing Affordability
YouTube video by Cambridge Community Television
www.youtube.com
February 9, 2026 at 10:12 PM
Here’s a link to the video of the panel. www.youtube.com/watch?v=JqkT...
Reposted by Kevin Erdmann
Disturbingly detailed analysis of my first rewatch incoming
February 9, 2026 at 2:30 AM
Disturbingly detailed analysis of my first rewatch incoming
Billy Tubbs No Matter How Bad the Officiating Is...
YouTube video by rlozano
www.youtube.com
February 9, 2026 at 9:18 PM
Reposted by Kevin Erdmann
Once again rentrentier.com/affordable-l...
How much does luxury building matter?
The results of this one were a big surprise to me. The question I asked is, are rents high because the new housing that's being built is too expensive? There's a lot of attention on how expensive mark...
rentrentier.com
February 9, 2026 at 5:12 PM
Once again rentrentier.com/affordable-l...
The huge blind spot that the economics academy shows up again, but even with that, this is a really interesting paper about the effects of upzoning.
Cool Paper on the progressive effect of upzoning
open.substack.com/pub/kevinerd...
Cool Paper on the progressive effect of upzoning
open.substack.com/pub/kevinerd...
Cool Paper on the progressive effect of upzoning
Here is an amazing paper.
open.substack.com
February 9, 2026 at 6:55 PM
The huge blind spot that the economics academy shows up again, but even with that, this is a really interesting paper about the effects of upzoning.
Cool Paper on the progressive effect of upzoning
open.substack.com/pub/kevinerd...
Cool Paper on the progressive effect of upzoning
open.substack.com/pub/kevinerd...
The woke stuff at the Olympics is out of control. We’re watching an event now that the commentators said is only open to bi-athletes. Ridiculous.
February 9, 2026 at 5:54 AM
The woke stuff at the Olympics is out of control. We’re watching an event now that the commentators said is only open to bi-athletes. Ridiculous.
Bad Bunny knocked it out of the park. Every thing about that half time was exactly spot on.
February 9, 2026 at 3:56 AM
Bad Bunny knocked it out of the park. Every thing about that half time was exactly spot on.
Reposted by Kevin Erdmann
And now the ode to dense communities & neighborhood businesses, surely the most urbanist halftime show ever
February 9, 2026 at 1:30 AM
And now the ode to dense communities & neighborhood businesses, surely the most urbanist halftime show ever
In August 2008, Fed staff economists thought that their job was to slow down the economy enough for builders to reduce housing starts (which were already down 80%). They thought inventory was too high, and slowing the economy more would fix it.
2008 was wild, man.
2008 was wild, man.
February 8, 2026 at 9:18 PM
In August 2008, Fed staff economists thought that their job was to slow down the economy enough for builders to reduce housing starts (which were already down 80%). They thought inventory was too high, and slowing the economy more would fix it.
2008 was wild, man.
2008 was wild, man.
I told @shanedphillips.bsky.social on a recent podcast what a party the retirement mobile home parks are.
Jefferson Starship. Still rockin (w/o Grace Slick). Played tonight just down the block from my mother-in-law’s park model.
David Freiberg is 87. Belted ”Jane” like he wrote it yesterday.
Jefferson Starship. Still rockin (w/o Grace Slick). Played tonight just down the block from my mother-in-law’s park model.
David Freiberg is 87. Belted ”Jane” like he wrote it yesterday.
February 7, 2026 at 5:03 AM
I told @shanedphillips.bsky.social on a recent podcast what a party the retirement mobile home parks are.
Jefferson Starship. Still rockin (w/o Grace Slick). Played tonight just down the block from my mother-in-law’s park model.
David Freiberg is 87. Belted ”Jane” like he wrote it yesterday.
Jefferson Starship. Still rockin (w/o Grace Slick). Played tonight just down the block from my mother-in-law’s park model.
David Freiberg is 87. Belted ”Jane” like he wrote it yesterday.
Reposted by Kevin Erdmann
The idea here is that by giving up our ability to speculate on the possibility of falling interest rates, we could significantly lower those rates without sacrificing year-to-year payment stability. It's a better alignment of interests between lender and borrower. www.lewis.ucla.edu/2026/02/05/1...
Episode 107: A Better Mortgage with Kevin Erdmann (Incentives Series pt. 9) - UCLA Lewis Center for Regional Policy Studies
Fixed-rate mortgages are expensive, but adjustable-rate mortgages are volatile — but do they have to be?
www.lewis.ucla.edu
February 6, 2026 at 6:26 PM
The idea here is that by giving up our ability to speculate on the possibility of falling interest rates, we could significantly lower those rates without sacrificing year-to-year payment stability. It's a better alignment of interests between lender and borrower. www.lewis.ucla.edu/2026/02/05/1...
Reposted by Kevin Erdmann
This week we had @kevinerdmann.bsky.social back on UCLA Housing Voice to talk about his pitch for a new loan product: the fixed-amortization, adjustable-principal mortgage. A super interesting idea, and definitely worth your time. www.lewis.ucla.edu/2026/02/05/1...
Episode 107: A Better Mortgage with Kevin Erdmann (Incentives Series pt. 9) - UCLA Lewis Center for Regional Policy Studies
Fixed-rate mortgages are expensive, but adjustable-rate mortgages are volatile — but do they have to be?
www.lewis.ucla.edu
February 6, 2026 at 6:26 PM
This week we had @kevinerdmann.bsky.social back on UCLA Housing Voice to talk about his pitch for a new loan product: the fixed-amortization, adjustable-principal mortgage. A super interesting idea, and definitely worth your time. www.lewis.ucla.edu/2026/02/05/1...
Shane Phillips very generously invited me back to the UCLA Housing Voice podcast to talk about a mortgage product I have suggested to get the benefits of a fixed rate mortgage without the high costs.
www.lewis.ucla.edu/2026/02/05/1...
www.lewis.ucla.edu/2026/02/05/1...
Episode 107: A Better Mortgage with Kevin Erdmann (Incentives Series pt. 9) - UCLA Lewis Center for Regional Policy Studies
Fixed-rate mortgages are expensive, but adjustable-rate mortgages are volatile — but do they have to be?
www.lewis.ucla.edu
February 5, 2026 at 6:31 PM
Shane Phillips very generously invited me back to the UCLA Housing Voice podcast to talk about a mortgage product I have suggested to get the benefits of a fixed rate mortgage without the high costs.
www.lewis.ucla.edu/2026/02/05/1...
www.lewis.ucla.edu/2026/02/05/1...