Kevin Erdmann
@kevinerdmann.bsky.social
I discovered the surprising story of what really happened in 2008 (not enough housing) and accidentally became a housing policy guy.
https://kevinerdmann.substack.com/
https://www.amazon.com/stores/Kevin-Erdmann/author/B099P7SN1G
https://kevinerdmann.substack.com/
https://www.amazon.com/stores/Kevin-Erdmann/author/B099P7SN1G
Reposted by Kevin Erdmann
Have housing prices returned to pre-covid levels? No. But Trump's graph is real. It only looks at the mean price for one developer, Lennar. National data still shows a stubbornly high plateau. Build more houses.
December 27, 2025 at 8:04 PM
Have housing prices returned to pre-covid levels? No. But Trump's graph is real. It only looks at the mean price for one developer, Lennar. National data still shows a stubbornly high plateau. Build more houses.
Reposted by Kevin Erdmann
Kids are literally being ran over by cars and killed over this N=8 regression. It's RFK and "More Guns, Less Crime" combined for Democratic governed cities.
December 27, 2025 at 3:46 AM
Kids are literally being ran over by cars and killed over this N=8 regression. It's RFK and "More Guns, Less Crime" combined for Democratic governed cities.
The latest in my series of posts about my new Mercatus paper.
Upward filtering is REALLY WEIRD. It reflects a really bad supply crisis, not just marginal issues, and it triggers a measurable behavioral shift.
open.substack.com/pub/kevinerd...
Upward filtering is REALLY WEIRD. It reflects a really bad supply crisis, not just marginal issues, and it triggers a measurable behavioral shift.
open.substack.com/pub/kevinerd...
“We Are Not as Wealthy as We Thought We Were”: Part 3
Filtering
open.substack.com
December 26, 2025 at 8:53 PM
The latest in my series of posts about my new Mercatus paper.
Upward filtering is REALLY WEIRD. It reflects a really bad supply crisis, not just marginal issues, and it triggers a measurable behavioral shift.
open.substack.com/pub/kevinerd...
Upward filtering is REALLY WEIRD. It reflects a really bad supply crisis, not just marginal issues, and it triggers a measurable behavioral shift.
open.substack.com/pub/kevinerd...
Reposted by Kevin Erdmann
Imagine watching Sinatra, son of Dolly & Antonini born in Genoa & Sicily, respectively, and Martin, son of Gaetano & Angela, born in Montesilvano, Italy & Ohio respectively, (Angela to parents born in Monasterolo, Italy), and crusading against the value of children of immigrants to the U.S.
December 26, 2025 at 7:03 PM
Imagine watching Sinatra, son of Dolly & Antonini born in Genoa & Sicily, respectively, and Martin, son of Gaetano & Angela, born in Montesilvano, Italy & Ohio respectively, (Angela to parents born in Monasterolo, Italy), and crusading against the value of children of immigrants to the U.S.
Reposted by Kevin Erdmann
I don’t always agree with of the broader political takes from some “abundance”-coded pundits but man the abundance critics are just pure nonsense merchants
like, what’s this guy’s deal? literally making up a guy to dunk on the idea that cities should build more housing and transit.
like, what’s this guy’s deal? literally making up a guy to dunk on the idea that cities should build more housing and transit.
December 25, 2025 at 9:41 PM
I don’t always agree with of the broader political takes from some “abundance”-coded pundits but man the abundance critics are just pure nonsense merchants
like, what’s this guy’s deal? literally making up a guy to dunk on the idea that cities should build more housing and transit.
like, what’s this guy’s deal? literally making up a guy to dunk on the idea that cities should build more housing and transit.
Reposted by Kevin Erdmann
The Week Between Christmas and New Years
December 26, 2025 at 5:50 PM
The Week Between Christmas and New Years
Reposted by Kevin Erdmann
A task-level minimum pay standard for gig delivery work did not increase drivers' monthly earnings. Higher pay rates were offset by lower tips and more competition for scarce tasks, from Yuan An, Andrew Garin, and Brian K. Kovak www.nber.org/papers/w34545
December 14, 2025 at 2:01 PM
A task-level minimum pay standard for gig delivery work did not increase drivers' monthly earnings. Higher pay rates were offset by lower tips and more competition for scarce tasks, from Yuan An, Andrew Garin, and Brian K. Kovak www.nber.org/papers/w34545
Reposted by Kevin Erdmann
A reminder that the Epstein Files Transparency Act stipulates that ONLY information on Epstein's victims can be redacted. It goes on to specify that no information can be redacted to spare anyone embarrassment.
DOJ redacted the names of all 10 of Epstein's co-conspirators.
Bondi is a criminal.
DOJ redacted the names of all 10 of Epstein's co-conspirators.
Bondi is a criminal.
December 23, 2025 at 7:53 PM
A reminder that the Epstein Files Transparency Act stipulates that ONLY information on Epstein's victims can be redacted. It goes on to specify that no information can be redacted to spare anyone embarrassment.
DOJ redacted the names of all 10 of Epstein's co-conspirators.
Bondi is a criminal.
DOJ redacted the names of all 10 of Epstein's co-conspirators.
Bondi is a criminal.
Reposted by Kevin Erdmann
Through obtained video footage, the New York Times has exposed a pattern of Border Patrol agents causing accidents, falsifying reports, and arresting innocent individuals to cover up systemic abuse.
December 23, 2025 at 7:49 PM
Through obtained video footage, the New York Times has exposed a pattern of Border Patrol agents causing accidents, falsifying reports, and arresting innocent individuals to cover up systemic abuse.
To the extent that housing construction has been capacity constrained and there has been some crowding out, I think this might point to an upturn in housing starts.
Real fixed investment in US factories inched down further in data released today as CHIPS ACT projects complete & tariffs weigh on the manufacturing industry.
Construction activity is now down more than 8% from the mid-2024 record highs
Construction activity is now down more than 8% from the mid-2024 record highs
December 23, 2025 at 7:09 PM
To the extent that housing construction has been capacity constrained and there has been some crowding out, I think this might point to an upturn in housing starts.
If the conventional estimates of a housing shortage were 15 million, that would imply that the neutral number of completions since 2008 would have been a bit below the slowest building period since WW II.
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December 22, 2025 at 11:13 PM
If the conventional estimates of a housing shortage were 15 million, that would imply that the neutral number of completions since 2008 would have been a bit below the slowest building period since WW II.
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1/
An introduction to the basic national measures of residential investment that point to deep decline.
“We Are Not as Wealthy as We Thought We Were”: Part 2, by @KAErdmann open.substack.com/pub/kevinerd...
“We Are Not as Wealthy as We Thought We Were”: Part 2, by @KAErdmann open.substack.com/pub/kevinerd...
“We Are Not as Wealthy as We Thought We Were”: Part 2
The first section of my new paper walks through basic data about the national trends in residential investment and home values.
open.substack.com
December 22, 2025 at 5:43 PM
An introduction to the basic national measures of residential investment that point to deep decline.
“We Are Not as Wealthy as We Thought We Were”: Part 2, by @KAErdmann open.substack.com/pub/kevinerd...
“We Are Not as Wealthy as We Thought We Were”: Part 2, by @KAErdmann open.substack.com/pub/kevinerd...
Reposted by Kevin Erdmann
I keep thinking of a line a Venezuelan friend said to me many years ago - "el inmigrante is comerciante". Translated, it means "The immigrant is a businessman."
It's one of the few constants across a couple centuries of immigration to America.
It's one of the few constants across a couple centuries of immigration to America.
December 22, 2025 at 4:56 PM
I keep thinking of a line a Venezuelan friend said to me many years ago - "el inmigrante is comerciante". Translated, it means "The immigrant is a businessman."
It's one of the few constants across a couple centuries of immigration to America.
It's one of the few constants across a couple centuries of immigration to America.
Reposted by Kevin Erdmann
An absolutely magnificent Freudian slip! 🤌🏼
December 21, 2025 at 12:10 PM
An absolutely magnificent Freudian slip! 🤌🏼
Reposted by Kevin Erdmann
DoD releases another missile attack video
December 21, 2025 at 4:11 AM
DoD releases another missile attack video
Big announcement coming today.
Newly renamed Donald J Trump Center for Kids Who Can't Read Good, but for regular size kids.
Newly renamed Donald J Trump Center for Kids Who Can't Read Good, but for regular size kids.
December 20, 2025 at 7:23 PM
Big announcement coming today.
Newly renamed Donald J Trump Center for Kids Who Can't Read Good, but for regular size kids.
Newly renamed Donald J Trump Center for Kids Who Can't Read Good, but for regular size kids.
There used to be smoking sections on airplanes and it was a pointless and ineffective as you might imagine.
It’s crazy that people used to be able to just smoke cigarettes wherever they wanted
December 20, 2025 at 9:59 AM
There used to be smoking sections on airplanes and it was a pointless and ineffective as you might imagine.
Reposted by Kevin Erdmann
Incredible work by @besttrousers.bsky.social today making some of the most poorly-informed, self-assuredly wrong people on the internet scream at him all afternoon while he calmly reveals their misconceptions to anyone who can read.
December 19, 2025 at 7:51 PM
Incredible work by @besttrousers.bsky.social today making some of the most poorly-informed, self-assuredly wrong people on the internet scream at him all afternoon while he calmly reveals their misconceptions to anyone who can read.
Reposted by Kevin Erdmann
"You’re describing a dystopian hellscape. None of this could ever happen" - what every reliable Trump lickspittle would have told you if you neutrally described America in Dec. 2025 to them on the eve of Election Day in 2024.
Today's Triad from @jvl.bsky.social: lnk.thebulwark.com/3MTvrwZ
Today's Triad from @jvl.bsky.social: lnk.thebulwark.com/3MTvrwZ
December 19, 2025 at 5:30 PM
"You’re describing a dystopian hellscape. None of this could ever happen" - what every reliable Trump lickspittle would have told you if you neutrally described America in Dec. 2025 to them on the eve of Election Day in 2024.
Today's Triad from @jvl.bsky.social: lnk.thebulwark.com/3MTvrwZ
Today's Triad from @jvl.bsky.social: lnk.thebulwark.com/3MTvrwZ
Reposted by Kevin Erdmann
According to Howard Lutnick, Donald Trump's favorability has fallen by 150% since January.
FOX: If you cut something by 100%, the cost goes down to 0. If you cut it by 600%, the drug companies are actually paying you
LUTNICK: What he's saying is if a drug was $100 and you bring it down to $13, it's down 7 times
F: Not a 600% cut
L: But it's 700% higher price before. It's down 700% now
LUTNICK: What he's saying is if a drug was $100 and you bring it down to $13, it's down 7 times
F: Not a 600% cut
L: But it's 700% higher price before. It's down 700% now
December 19, 2025 at 1:15 PM
According to Howard Lutnick, Donald Trump's favorability has fallen by 150% since January.
Literally felt my soul leaving my body as I skimmed this paper. Please leave a donation to your favorite charity in lieu of flowers.
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
December 19, 2025 at 3:07 AM
Literally felt my soul leaving my body as I skimmed this paper. Please leave a donation to your favorite charity in lieu of flowers.
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
For months the President has been talking about prices going down 600%. We know he watches TV. He's had to have seen people make fun of him. What is the most realistic explanation for why he keeps saying it?
December 18, 2025 at 5:49 PM
For months the President has been talking about prices going down 600%. We know he watches TV. He's had to have seen people make fun of him. What is the most realistic explanation for why he keeps saying it?
Reposted by Kevin Erdmann
We are now in the USA at the point where "at least he didn't declare war on a country who is no threat to us" is a win?
December 18, 2025 at 6:23 AM
We are now in the USA at the point where "at least he didn't declare war on a country who is no threat to us" is a win?