Kai Thaler
@kaimthaler.bsky.social
Global Studies prof at UC Santa Barbara, views own. Proud Mainer. Conflict, violence, statebuilding, protest, democracy & authoritarianism. COYS. kaithaler.com. Author of When Rebels Win https://tinyurl.com/whenrebelswin
Pinned
Kai Thaler
@kaimthaler.bsky.social
· Oct 9
When Rebels Win now has a cover! Thanks to the @cornellupress.bsky.social team for work on the design. It's out December 15, & available to preorder. Please get in touch if you're interested in having me talk about the book in a seminar series or a class! www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/9781501...
Reposted by Kai Thaler
Happy to have a new open access Security Studies article on why & how revolutionary regimes often struggle to balance against threats soon after taking power, undermining military effectiveness www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Stumbling out of the Gates: Security Strategy and Military Weakness after Revolutionary Victory
Revolutionary regimes may prove durable over time, yet they are often weak and militarily ineffective after victory. How do the circumstances of victory shape these weaknesses? Where old regime sec...
www.tandfonline.com
November 9, 2025 at 9:56 PM
Happy to have a new open access Security Studies article on why & how revolutionary regimes often struggle to balance against threats soon after taking power, undermining military effectiveness www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Reposted by Kai Thaler
Incredible to reflect on Syria one year ago today and where it is now.
In just minutes, Syrian interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa will meet with POTUS, marking the first time a Syrian president will visit the White House since 1946.
Expect sanctions, ISIS, Israel on the agenda.
In just minutes, Syrian interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa will meet with POTUS, marking the first time a Syrian president will visit the White House since 1946.
Expect sanctions, ISIS, Israel on the agenda.
November 10, 2025 at 3:52 PM
Incredible to reflect on Syria one year ago today and where it is now.
In just minutes, Syrian interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa will meet with POTUS, marking the first time a Syrian president will visit the White House since 1946.
Expect sanctions, ISIS, Israel on the agenda.
In just minutes, Syrian interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa will meet with POTUS, marking the first time a Syrian president will visit the White House since 1946.
Expect sanctions, ISIS, Israel on the agenda.
Happy to have a new open access Security Studies article on why & how revolutionary regimes often struggle to balance against threats soon after taking power, undermining military effectiveness www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Stumbling out of the Gates: Security Strategy and Military Weakness after Revolutionary Victory
Revolutionary regimes may prove durable over time, yet they are often weak and militarily ineffective after victory. How do the circumstances of victory shape these weaknesses? Where old regime sec...
www.tandfonline.com
November 9, 2025 at 9:56 PM
Happy to have a new open access Security Studies article on why & how revolutionary regimes often struggle to balance against threats soon after taking power, undermining military effectiveness www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Reposted by Kai Thaler
Two panels commemorating the contribution of Black American soldiers towards the liberation of the Netherlands in World War Two have been quietly removed from a cemetery in Limburg. It follows a complaint by right-wing think tank The Heritage Foundation to the American Battle Monuments Commission.
Op Margraten zijn twee panelen over zwarte Amerikaanse bevrijders van Nederland opeens weg. ‘Past bij beleid van de regering-Trump’
Op Margraten zijn twee panelen over zwarte Amerikaanse bevrijders van Nederland opeens weg. ‘Past bij beleid van de regering-Trump’
Op de Amerikaanse begraafplaats in Margraten is het opeens stil geworden rond de zwarte Amerikanen die hielpen Nederland bevrijden. Twee panelen die hun bijdrage herdachten – én wezen op hun strijd tegen racisme binnen het leger – werden zonder toelichting verwijderd.
www.nrc.nl
November 8, 2025 at 8:55 PM
Two panels commemorating the contribution of Black American soldiers towards the liberation of the Netherlands in World War Two have been quietly removed from a cemetery in Limburg. It follows a complaint by right-wing think tank The Heritage Foundation to the American Battle Monuments Commission.
Reposted by Kai Thaler
NEW: Common Crawl, the massive archiver of the web, has gotten cozy with AI companies and is providing paywalled articles for training data. They’re also lying to publishers who have asked for material to be removed. “The robots are people too,” CC’s exec director told us when we asked about this.
The Nonprofit Feeding the Entire Internet to AI Companies
Common Crawl claims to provide a public benefit, but it lies to publishers about its activities.
www.theatlantic.com
November 4, 2025 at 12:15 PM
NEW: Common Crawl, the massive archiver of the web, has gotten cozy with AI companies and is providing paywalled articles for training data. They’re also lying to publishers who have asked for material to be removed. “The robots are people too,” CC’s exec director told us when we asked about this.
Reposted by Kai Thaler
You can read a PDF version of the intro to The First Right: Self-Determination and The Transformation of International Order by clicking on the link below.
You can also get a 30% discount using the promotion code AUFLY30 from the Oxford website.
academic.oup.com/book/60825/c...
You can also get a 30% discount using the promotion code AUFLY30 from the Oxford website.
academic.oup.com/book/60825/c...
Introduction: One, Two, Three, Many Self-Determinations
Abstract. The idea of self-determination is one of the most significant in modern international politics. For more than a century diplomats, lawyers, schol
academic.oup.com
November 3, 2025 at 5:08 PM
You can read a PDF version of the intro to The First Right: Self-Determination and The Transformation of International Order by clicking on the link below.
You can also get a 30% discount using the promotion code AUFLY30 from the Oxford website.
academic.oup.com/book/60825/c...
You can also get a 30% discount using the promotion code AUFLY30 from the Oxford website.
academic.oup.com/book/60825/c...
Reposted by Kai Thaler
Satellite images show that most of the 260,000 civilians in Sudan’s el-Fasher are likely still trapped, as mass RSF killings continue
Satellite images show most el-Fasher civilians likely still trapped
Latest images suggest that majority of 260,000 civilians still in captured city, as mass RSF killings continue
www.middleeasteye.net
November 1, 2025 at 10:24 PM
Satellite images show that most of the 260,000 civilians in Sudan’s el-Fasher are likely still trapped, as mass RSF killings continue
Reposted by Kai Thaler
“Individuals on the ground sent a message that reached us Monday morning that 1,200 were dead,” Nathaniel Raymond, the lab’s executive director, said. “By that evening, they said 10,000. By Tuesday, we couldn’t reach them anymore. We assume our ground contacts are dead.”
Yale lab reports mass killings in Sudan, calls for student activism
The Humanitarian Research Lab was told this week that over 10,000 people in Sudan were killed within three days.
yaledailynews.com
October 31, 2025 at 8:02 PM
“Individuals on the ground sent a message that reached us Monday morning that 1,200 were dead,” Nathaniel Raymond, the lab’s executive director, said. “By that evening, they said 10,000. By Tuesday, we couldn’t reach them anymore. We assume our ground contacts are dead.”
Reposted by Kai Thaler
Hi folks! A few thoughts on this essay, and the questions that we *should* be asking, rather than the ones this Army officer seems inclined to answer. I haven’t done a CMR thread in a while so I’m overdue. 🧵
Hard to imagine a more sinister & dangerous argument, couched in euphemism & high-minded language. "This essay does not argue liberalism will collapse, only that [US] military officers should be intellectually (and spiritually) prepared for alternatives." warontherocks.com/2025/10/the-...
The American Military Officer After Liberalism
Across academia, government, and Silicon Valley, on social media, and in leading journals, intellectuals and political leaders are openly debating what
warontherocks.com
October 31, 2025 at 3:04 AM
Hi folks! A few thoughts on this essay, and the questions that we *should* be asking, rather than the ones this Army officer seems inclined to answer. I haven’t done a CMR thread in a while so I’m overdue. 🧵
Reposted by Kai Thaler
There's been lots of chatter about how air strikes may or may not signal resolve.
Spoiler alert: They are really bad at signaling resolve for a variety of reasons which I explained in this Ethics & International Affairs Piece.
#civmilsky #poliscisky #academicsky
drive.google.com/file/d/1sf5k...
Spoiler alert: They are really bad at signaling resolve for a variety of reasons which I explained in this Ethics & International Affairs Piece.
#civmilsky #poliscisky #academicsky
drive.google.com/file/d/1sf5k...
Lupton_EIA_2020.pdf
drive.google.com
October 31, 2025 at 1:31 PM
There's been lots of chatter about how air strikes may or may not signal resolve.
Spoiler alert: They are really bad at signaling resolve for a variety of reasons which I explained in this Ethics & International Affairs Piece.
#civmilsky #poliscisky #academicsky
drive.google.com/file/d/1sf5k...
Spoiler alert: They are really bad at signaling resolve for a variety of reasons which I explained in this Ethics & International Affairs Piece.
#civmilsky #poliscisky #academicsky
drive.google.com/file/d/1sf5k...
Reposted by Kai Thaler
Let's hear it for the farm workers who harvested the pumpkins that are decorating homes across America for #Halloween today. #WeFeedYou
Que se oiga para los campesinos que cosecharon las calabazas que hoy decoran los hogares en todo los Estados Unidos. #SoyEsencial
Que se oiga para los campesinos que cosecharon las calabazas que hoy decoran los hogares en todo los Estados Unidos. #SoyEsencial
October 31, 2025 at 8:00 PM
Let's hear it for the farm workers who harvested the pumpkins that are decorating homes across America for #Halloween today. #WeFeedYou
Que se oiga para los campesinos que cosecharon las calabazas que hoy decoran los hogares en todo los Estados Unidos. #SoyEsencial
Que se oiga para los campesinos que cosecharon las calabazas que hoy decoran los hogares en todo los Estados Unidos. #SoyEsencial
Reposted by Kai Thaler
Great analysis of the situation in Tanzania by Dan Paget
Has Tanzania Reached Its Breaking Point? | Journal of Democracy
President Hassan promised Tanzanians freedom, transparency, and reform. Instead, she has delivered repression, violence, and arrests as she bars anyone who dares challenge her.
www.journalofdemocracy.org
October 31, 2025 at 5:38 PM
Great analysis of the situation in Tanzania by Dan Paget
Reposted by Kai Thaler
NEWS: CBS News gutted its climate team as part of the big Paramount layoffs this week. These journalists had been doing incredible reporting on extreme heat, flooding, clean energy investments and more.
I've got details for Climate-Colored Goggles: www.climatecoloredgoggles.com/p/cbs-news-g...
I've got details for Climate-Colored Goggles: www.climatecoloredgoggles.com/p/cbs-news-g...
CBS News just gutted its climate team
Paramount and Bari Weiss aren't off to a great start. Here's why David Ellison should change course.
www.climatecoloredgoggles.com
October 31, 2025 at 12:55 AM
NEWS: CBS News gutted its climate team as part of the big Paramount layoffs this week. These journalists had been doing incredible reporting on extreme heat, flooding, clean energy investments and more.
I've got details for Climate-Colored Goggles: www.climatecoloredgoggles.com/p/cbs-news-g...
I've got details for Climate-Colored Goggles: www.climatecoloredgoggles.com/p/cbs-news-g...
Since apparently normal procedures around classified and secret information aren't enough... #civmilsky www.reuters.com/world/americ...
Exclusive: US military officials required to sign NDAs tied to Latin America mission, sources say
U.S. military officials involved with President Donald Trump's expanding operations in Latin America have been asked to sign non-disclosure agreements, three U.S. officials say, a development that raises new questions about a military buildup that Venezuela fears may lead to an invasion.
www.reuters.com
October 28, 2025 at 7:54 PM
Since apparently normal procedures around classified and secret information aren't enough... #civmilsky www.reuters.com/world/americ...
Reposted by Kai Thaler
Sarkozy is going to jail but he’s not the first one. In our new dataset we track modern leaders who have been prosecuted by their own states. There are 215 of them. Turns out leader prosecution is a common & healthy practice in democracies. Full access link: foreignpolicy.com/2025/10/28/d...
Prosecuting the Powerful
Historical data shows putting leaders on trial is a healthy democratic practice.
foreignpolicy.com
October 28, 2025 at 4:42 PM
Sarkozy is going to jail but he’s not the first one. In our new dataset we track modern leaders who have been prosecuted by their own states. There are 215 of them. Turns out leader prosecution is a common & healthy practice in democracies. Full access link: foreignpolicy.com/2025/10/28/d...
Reposted by Kai Thaler
God, or whatever you believe in, help the people of Jamaica. Worst landfall on record just occurred, according to @capitalweather.bsky.social. Graphic below is from them. Sustained winds of 185MPH and gusts of 252(!) MPH at land level.
October 28, 2025 at 5:13 PM
God, or whatever you believe in, help the people of Jamaica. Worst landfall on record just occurred, according to @capitalweather.bsky.social. Graphic below is from them. Sustained winds of 185MPH and gusts of 252(!) MPH at land level.
Reposted by Kai Thaler
Today is the 7th anniversary of the Pittsburgh Synagogue massacre, where 11 Jews were killed for their congregation's support of immigrant rights.
I look at what Jews from the synagogue are doing to honor their dead & stand up for immigrants' rights.
paydayreport.com/jews-work-to...
I look at what Jews from the synagogue are doing to honor their dead & stand up for immigrants' rights.
paydayreport.com/jews-work-to...
Jews Work to Remember Pittsburgh Synagogue Massacre’s Being Linked to Immigrant Rights
The shooter, Richard Bowers, said that he targeted the organization for their support of the Hebrew Immigrant Aid Society (HIAS). The shooter accused local Jews of bringing in the caravan.
paydayreport.com
October 28, 2025 at 12:30 AM
Today is the 7th anniversary of the Pittsburgh Synagogue massacre, where 11 Jews were killed for their congregation's support of immigrant rights.
I look at what Jews from the synagogue are doing to honor their dead & stand up for immigrants' rights.
paydayreport.com/jews-work-to...
I look at what Jews from the synagogue are doing to honor their dead & stand up for immigrants' rights.
paydayreport.com/jews-work-to...
Reposted by Kai Thaler
Reposted by Kai Thaler
Lula and Trump met earlier this morning to discuss tariffs, and Trump never brought up the issue of Bolsonaro.
Even when a reporter asked Trump if he would discuss Bolsonaro, he said it's "none of your business."
Lula said the meeting went great.
www.bbc.com/portuguese/a...
Even when a reporter asked Trump if he would discuss Bolsonaro, he said it's "none of your business."
Lula said the meeting went great.
www.bbc.com/portuguese/a...
Trump não mencionou Bolsonaro em reunião com Lula, diz governo brasileiro - BBC News Brasil
Casa Branca deixa de citar aliado após fracassar na tentativa de interferir em julgamento do STF sobre tentativa de golpe de Estado
www.bbc.com
October 26, 2025 at 1:15 PM
Lula and Trump met earlier this morning to discuss tariffs, and Trump never brought up the issue of Bolsonaro.
Even when a reporter asked Trump if he would discuss Bolsonaro, he said it's "none of your business."
Lula said the meeting went great.
www.bbc.com/portuguese/a...
Even when a reporter asked Trump if he would discuss Bolsonaro, he said it's "none of your business."
Lula said the meeting went great.
www.bbc.com/portuguese/a...
Reposted by Kai Thaler
Any real expert inside the government knows the President’s boat strikes won’t hold up in court. And they know detention in many cases will bring on judicial review. If those voices prevail, the govt will avoid bringing detainees to the U.S. or GTMO.
There's a reason the government didn't continue to detain the two strike survivors, says @becingber.bsky.social in the latest episode of The Just Security Podcast, "Murder on the High Seas Part III"
www.youtube.com/shorts/l8JYt...
www.youtube.com/shorts/l8JYt...
There’s a reason the govt didn’t continue to detain the two strike survivors
YouTube video by Just Security
www.youtube.com
October 22, 2025 at 8:29 PM
Any real expert inside the government knows the President’s boat strikes won’t hold up in court. And they know detention in many cases will bring on judicial review. If those voices prevail, the govt will avoid bringing detainees to the U.S. or GTMO.
What could go wrong?
"DraftKings gets into the derivates market" is some grim shit www.politico.com/newsletters/...
October 23, 2025 at 3:32 PM
What could go wrong?
Reposted by Kai Thaler
NEW: there's been some chatter in recent days about an ICE purchase of "guided missile warheads and explosive components" in September.
However, it appears ICE simply entered the wrong product code when it entered the payment record into a federal database:
www.wired.com/story/no-ice...
However, it appears ICE simply entered the wrong product code when it entered the payment record into a federal database:
www.wired.com/story/no-ice...
No, ICE (Probably) Didn't Buy Guided Missile Warheads
A federal contracting database lists an ICE payment for $61,218 with the payment code “guided missile warheads and explosive components.” But it appears ICE simply entered the wrong code.
www.wired.com
October 22, 2025 at 8:39 PM
NEW: there's been some chatter in recent days about an ICE purchase of "guided missile warheads and explosive components" in September.
However, it appears ICE simply entered the wrong product code when it entered the payment record into a federal database:
www.wired.com/story/no-ice...
However, it appears ICE simply entered the wrong product code when it entered the payment record into a federal database:
www.wired.com/story/no-ice...
Reposted by Kai Thaler
"The fall of the Assad regime should have brought answers but to so many families of Syria’s disappeared, it has only brought a new kind of absence.
We ask for names, for lists, for truth. We are given nothing. No answers, no records, no acknowledgment."
www.theguardian.com/global-devel...
We ask for names, for lists, for truth. We are given nothing. No answers, no records, no acknowledgment."
www.theguardian.com/global-devel...
The families of Syria’s disappeared are asking for the truth. Our country cannot rebuild until we have it | Wafa Mustafa
Over 160,000 people, including my father, were abducted by the Assad regime. The country’s new commission for the missing must be inclusive and independent to restore our trust
www.theguardian.com
October 22, 2025 at 10:28 PM
"The fall of the Assad regime should have brought answers but to so many families of Syria’s disappeared, it has only brought a new kind of absence.
We ask for names, for lists, for truth. We are given nothing. No answers, no records, no acknowledgment."
www.theguardian.com/global-devel...
We ask for names, for lists, for truth. We are given nothing. No answers, no records, no acknowledgment."
www.theguardian.com/global-devel...
Reposted by Kai Thaler
Wow. Harvard nuking its PhD programs
- Science PhD admissions reduced by more than 75%
- Arts & Humanities reduced by about 60%
- Social Sciences by 50–70%
- History by 60%
- Biology by 75%
- The German department will lose all PhD seats
- Sociology from six PhD students to zero
- Science PhD admissions reduced by more than 75%
- Arts & Humanities reduced by about 60%
- Social Sciences by 50–70%
- History by 60%
- Biology by 75%
- The German department will lose all PhD seats
- Sociology from six PhD students to zero
Harvard FAS Cuts Ph.D. Seats By More Than Half Across Next Two Admissions Cycles | News | The Harvard Crimson
The Faculty of Arts and Sciences slashed the number of Ph.D. student admissions slots for the Science division by more than 75 percent and for the Arts & Humanities division by about 60 percent for th...
www.thecrimson.com
October 21, 2025 at 5:11 PM
Wow. Harvard nuking its PhD programs
- Science PhD admissions reduced by more than 75%
- Arts & Humanities reduced by about 60%
- Social Sciences by 50–70%
- History by 60%
- Biology by 75%
- The German department will lose all PhD seats
- Sociology from six PhD students to zero
- Science PhD admissions reduced by more than 75%
- Arts & Humanities reduced by about 60%
- Social Sciences by 50–70%
- History by 60%
- Biology by 75%
- The German department will lose all PhD seats
- Sociology from six PhD students to zero
Reposted by Kai Thaler
Questions:
--Are the survivors actually being detained?
--If so, military detention or law enforcement detention by USCG?
If military detention, no AUMF as legal authority, so bare Article II seems only theory. A problem I flagged when I was first made aware of this scheme to attack boats.
--Are the survivors actually being detained?
--If so, military detention or law enforcement detention by USCG?
If military detention, no AUMF as legal authority, so bare Article II seems only theory. A problem I flagged when I was first made aware of this scheme to attack boats.
October 17, 2025 at 3:41 PM
Questions:
--Are the survivors actually being detained?
--If so, military detention or law enforcement detention by USCG?
If military detention, no AUMF as legal authority, so bare Article II seems only theory. A problem I flagged when I was first made aware of this scheme to attack boats.
--Are the survivors actually being detained?
--If so, military detention or law enforcement detention by USCG?
If military detention, no AUMF as legal authority, so bare Article II seems only theory. A problem I flagged when I was first made aware of this scheme to attack boats.