Kabir K.
@kabirkhanna.bsky.social
Elections and Data Analytics at CBS News | Princeton political science PhD
Latino voters swung hard to Democrats this week, largely erasing GOP inroads in '24
Trump first Republican win presidential vote in Passaic, NJ (70% Latino) — on Tuesday, the city flipped back
Nearby Paterson and Prospect Park also saw big swings, giving Sherrill better margins than Biden '20
1/3
Trump first Republican win presidential vote in Passaic, NJ (70% Latino) — on Tuesday, the city flipped back
Nearby Paterson and Prospect Park also saw big swings, giving Sherrill better margins than Biden '20
1/3
November 8, 2025 at 12:49 AM
Latino voters swung hard to Democrats this week, largely erasing GOP inroads in '24
Trump first Republican win presidential vote in Passaic, NJ (70% Latino) — on Tuesday, the city flipped back
Nearby Paterson and Prospect Park also saw big swings, giving Sherrill better margins than Biden '20
1/3
Trump first Republican win presidential vote in Passaic, NJ (70% Latino) — on Tuesday, the city flipped back
Nearby Paterson and Prospect Park also saw big swings, giving Sherrill better margins than Biden '20
1/3
Reposted by Kabir K.
It's time for Fun Poll Friday! Actually, maybe Foreign Poll Friday - these polls cover pretty heavy issues, particularly focusing on international relations. But they're interesting, and that's close to fun!
Most of these remain in column binary, but can be converted. DM me. (1/?)
Most of these remain in column binary, but can be converted. DM me. (1/?)
November 7, 2025 at 9:06 PM
It's time for Fun Poll Friday! Actually, maybe Foreign Poll Friday - these polls cover pretty heavy issues, particularly focusing on international relations. But they're interesting, and that's close to fun!
Most of these remain in column binary, but can be converted. DM me. (1/?)
Most of these remain in column binary, but can be converted. DM me. (1/?)
Reposted by Kabir K.
NYC 2025 Mayoral results as a dot density plot using the `dots` #rstats package (cran.r-project.org/web/packages...)
November 7, 2025 at 2:04 PM
NYC 2025 Mayoral results as a dot density plot using the `dots` #rstats package (cran.r-project.org/web/packages...)
Reposted by Kabir K.
Flashback Friday: Exit polls have evolved dramatically since the first national exit poll in the US was conducted in 1972 by Warren Mitofsky for CBS News. Dive into the archives to see our earliest data. What was the public saying then?
ropercenter.cornell....
ropercenter.cornell....
November 7, 2025 at 3:11 PM
Flashback Friday: Exit polls have evolved dramatically since the first national exit poll in the US was conducted in 1972 by Warren Mitofsky for CBS News. Dive into the archives to see our earliest data. What was the public saying then?
ropercenter.cornell....
ropercenter.cornell....
Reposted by Kabir K.
Dense, high Hispanic counties like Hudson also point against the ‘24 red shift constituting a lasting “new” NJ. Cities like Perth Amboy saw large ‘24 Trump shifts, but supported Sherrill on Tuesday with overwhelming margins.
Read more from me and @kabirkhanna.bsky.social for #CBSDataDesk🍎 below!
Read more from me and @kabirkhanna.bsky.social for #CBSDataDesk🍎 below!
NJ's bluest counties saw biggest turnout increases, propelling landslide
Three densest counties saw largest jumps from '21:
Hudson (Jersey City), Essex (Newark), Union
>30% increase in total vote
>30-pt Democratic margin
High-profile local races helped, e.g., Jersey City mayoral w/ former gov
1/2
Three densest counties saw largest jumps from '21:
Hudson (Jersey City), Essex (Newark), Union
>30% increase in total vote
>30-pt Democratic margin
High-profile local races helped, e.g., Jersey City mayoral w/ former gov
1/2
November 6, 2025 at 6:05 PM
Dense, high Hispanic counties like Hudson also point against the ‘24 red shift constituting a lasting “new” NJ. Cities like Perth Amboy saw large ‘24 Trump shifts, but supported Sherrill on Tuesday with overwhelming margins.
Read more from me and @kabirkhanna.bsky.social for #CBSDataDesk🍎 below!
Read more from me and @kabirkhanna.bsky.social for #CBSDataDesk🍎 below!
Wow. Fresh data from NYC Board of Elections on electorate
Of those voting Tuesday, 17% are <30 and 25% are 30-44
Add to 41% of early voters <45, and share of young is much higher than recent mayorals
So while turnout increased in communities across the city, it increased *more* among young people
Of those voting Tuesday, 17% are <30 and 25% are 30-44
Add to 41% of early voters <45, and share of young is much higher than recent mayorals
So while turnout increased in communities across the city, it increased *more* among young people
November 6, 2025 at 4:57 PM
Wow. Fresh data from NYC Board of Elections on electorate
Of those voting Tuesday, 17% are <30 and 25% are 30-44
Add to 41% of early voters <45, and share of young is much higher than recent mayorals
So while turnout increased in communities across the city, it increased *more* among young people
Of those voting Tuesday, 17% are <30 and 25% are 30-44
Add to 41% of early voters <45, and share of young is much higher than recent mayorals
So while turnout increased in communities across the city, it increased *more* among young people
A year ago Zohran Mamdani was a little known assemblyman polling at under 1%, but on Tuesday, the 34-year-old democratic socialist won over 50% in the highest-turnout race for mayor in decades
How did he do it?
Featuring insights from the Voter Poll, our precinct analysis, and @amengel.bsky.social
How did he do it?
Featuring insights from the Voter Poll, our precinct analysis, and @amengel.bsky.social
Zohran Mamdani won by shaking up NYC politics
Entering the mayoral race with under 1% support, Zohran Mamdani's prospects of winning initially seemed unlikely. Here are some of the ways he turned the race around.
www.cbsnews.com
November 6, 2025 at 1:09 PM
A year ago Zohran Mamdani was a little known assemblyman polling at under 1%, but on Tuesday, the 34-year-old democratic socialist won over 50% in the highest-turnout race for mayor in decades
How did he do it?
Featuring insights from the Voter Poll, our precinct analysis, and @amengel.bsky.social
How did he do it?
Featuring insights from the Voter Poll, our precinct analysis, and @amengel.bsky.social
NJ's bluest counties saw biggest turnout increases, propelling landslide
Three densest counties saw largest jumps from '21:
Hudson (Jersey City), Essex (Newark), Union
>30% increase in total vote
>30-pt Democratic margin
High-profile local races helped, e.g., Jersey City mayoral w/ former gov
1/2
Three densest counties saw largest jumps from '21:
Hudson (Jersey City), Essex (Newark), Union
>30% increase in total vote
>30-pt Democratic margin
High-profile local races helped, e.g., Jersey City mayoral w/ former gov
1/2
November 6, 2025 at 1:06 AM
NJ's bluest counties saw biggest turnout increases, propelling landslide
Three densest counties saw largest jumps from '21:
Hudson (Jersey City), Essex (Newark), Union
>30% increase in total vote
>30-pt Democratic margin
High-profile local races helped, e.g., Jersey City mayoral w/ former gov
1/2
Three densest counties saw largest jumps from '21:
Hudson (Jersey City), Essex (Newark), Union
>30% increase in total vote
>30-pt Democratic margin
High-profile local races helped, e.g., Jersey City mayoral w/ former gov
1/2
NYC map shaded by vote margin!
We collected very granular precinct data and aggregated it to neighborhoods people actually recognize
Bushwick, Flushing, Upper West Side, etc.
datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Wrd72/
H/T @mitelectionlab.bsky.social @chriskenny.bsky.social @corymccartan.com @simko.bsky.social
We collected very granular precinct data and aggregated it to neighborhoods people actually recognize
Bushwick, Flushing, Upper West Side, etc.
datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Wrd72/
H/T @mitelectionlab.bsky.social @chriskenny.bsky.social @corymccartan.com @simko.bsky.social
2025 NYC Mayoral Race by Neighborhood
CBS News estimates of how different parts of the city voted
datawrapper.dwcdn.net
November 5, 2025 at 5:27 PM
NYC map shaded by vote margin!
We collected very granular precinct data and aggregated it to neighborhoods people actually recognize
Bushwick, Flushing, Upper West Side, etc.
datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Wrd72/
H/T @mitelectionlab.bsky.social @chriskenny.bsky.social @corymccartan.com @simko.bsky.social
We collected very granular precinct data and aggregated it to neighborhoods people actually recognize
Bushwick, Flushing, Upper West Side, etc.
datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Wrd72/
H/T @mitelectionlab.bsky.social @chriskenny.bsky.social @corymccartan.com @simko.bsky.social
Reposted by Kabir K.
Striking difference between East and South Asian communities. In Jackson Heights Mamdani gets 60% of the vote vs. in Flushing only 35%
Mamdani's win by NYC neighborhood: datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Wrd72/4/
Hover over map to see our estimates...
#CBSDataDesk🍎
Hover over map to see our estimates...
#CBSDataDesk🍎
2025 NYC Mayoral Race by Neighborhood
datawrapper.dwcdn.net
November 5, 2025 at 2:24 PM
Striking difference between East and South Asian communities. In Jackson Heights Mamdani gets 60% of the vote vs. in Flushing only 35%
Just projected Prop 50 passing in California...
So here's the state's new congressional map
More on redistricting here: www.cbsnews.com/news/texas-c...
So here's the state's new congressional map
More on redistricting here: www.cbsnews.com/news/texas-c...
November 5, 2025 at 4:05 AM
Just projected Prop 50 passing in California...
So here's the state's new congressional map
More on redistricting here: www.cbsnews.com/news/texas-c...
So here's the state's new congressional map
More on redistricting here: www.cbsnews.com/news/texas-c...
Mamdani's win by NYC neighborhood: datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Wrd72/4/
Hover over map to see our estimates...
#CBSDataDesk🍎
Hover over map to see our estimates...
#CBSDataDesk🍎
2025 NYC Mayoral Race by Neighborhood
datawrapper.dwcdn.net
November 5, 2025 at 2:56 AM
Mamdani's win by NYC neighborhood: datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Wrd72/4/
Hover over map to see our estimates...
#CBSDataDesk🍎
Hover over map to see our estimates...
#CBSDataDesk🍎
Impressive turnout across New York City today, continuing the heavy volume we tracked during the early voting period
We're now on track for well over 2 million total votes and the highest mayoral turnout rate since Rudy Giuliani beat David Dinkins in 1993
#CBSDataDesk🍎
We're now on track for well over 2 million total votes and the highest mayoral turnout rate since Rudy Giuliani beat David Dinkins in 1993
#CBSDataDesk🍎
At this rate, we’re likely to see NYC's highest mayoral turnout rate in many years
It’s already on track to be highest in 20 years, may climb even higher
1.6 million total votes -> 34% turnout (would be highest rate since '01)
1.8 million -> 38% turnout
2 million -> 42% turnout (highest since '93)
It’s already on track to be highest in 20 years, may climb even higher
1.6 million total votes -> 34% turnout (would be highest rate since '01)
1.8 million -> 38% turnout
2 million -> 42% turnout (highest since '93)
November 4, 2025 at 9:47 PM
Impressive turnout across New York City today, continuing the heavy volume we tracked during the early voting period
We're now on track for well over 2 million total votes and the highest mayoral turnout rate since Rudy Giuliani beat David Dinkins in 1993
#CBSDataDesk🍎
We're now on track for well over 2 million total votes and the highest mayoral turnout rate since Rudy Giuliani beat David Dinkins in 1993
#CBSDataDesk🍎
Reposted by Kabir K.
Finishing up prep for election night at CBS News' Data Desk!
Sunday in NYC was the highest single day early votes since at least 2019 and maybe ever:
Sunday in NYC was the highest single day early votes since at least 2019 and maybe ever:
November 4, 2025 at 7:25 PM
Finishing up prep for election night at CBS News' Data Desk!
Sunday in NYC was the highest single day early votes since at least 2019 and maybe ever:
Sunday in NYC was the highest single day early votes since at least 2019 and maybe ever:
Reposted by Kabir K.
What we know about NYC voters checking in early...
74% registered Democrat (12% Republican)
55% voted in the June Democratic primary
Most didn't vote in mayoral four years ago
Age breakdown:
16% 18-29
24% 30-44
33% 45-64
27% 65+
Combined 41% under 45! So, much younger than '17 and '21 electorates
74% registered Democrat (12% Republican)
55% voted in the June Democratic primary
Most didn't vote in mayoral four years ago
Age breakdown:
16% 18-29
24% 30-44
33% 45-64
27% 65+
Combined 41% under 45! So, much younger than '17 and '21 electorates
Another 151K check ins today, according to the NYC Board of Elections... which I believe is the highest on record in a single day (including during the 2024 presidential!)
So we're at 735,317 total. Other than depressed turnout on a rainy day, our model got it right on day five of early voting
1/2
So we're at 735,317 total. Other than depressed turnout on a rainy day, our model got it right on day five of early voting
1/2
November 3, 2025 at 12:24 AM
What we know about NYC voters checking in early...
74% registered Democrat (12% Republican)
55% voted in the June Democratic primary
Most didn't vote in mayoral four years ago
Age breakdown:
16% 18-29
24% 30-44
33% 45-64
27% 65+
Combined 41% under 45! So, much younger than '17 and '21 electorates
74% registered Democrat (12% Republican)
55% voted in the June Democratic primary
Most didn't vote in mayoral four years ago
Age breakdown:
16% 18-29
24% 30-44
33% 45-64
27% 65+
Combined 41% under 45! So, much younger than '17 and '21 electorates
What we know about NYC voters checking in early...
74% registered Democrat (12% Republican)
55% voted in the June Democratic primary
Most didn't vote in mayoral four years ago
Age breakdown:
16% 18-29
24% 30-44
33% 45-64
27% 65+
Combined 41% under 45! So, much younger than '17 and '21 electorates
74% registered Democrat (12% Republican)
55% voted in the June Democratic primary
Most didn't vote in mayoral four years ago
Age breakdown:
16% 18-29
24% 30-44
33% 45-64
27% 65+
Combined 41% under 45! So, much younger than '17 and '21 electorates
Another 151K check ins today, according to the NYC Board of Elections... which I believe is the highest on record in a single day (including during the 2024 presidential!)
So we're at 735,317 total. Other than depressed turnout on a rainy day, our model got it right on day five of early voting
1/2
So we're at 735,317 total. Other than depressed turnout on a rainy day, our model got it right on day five of early voting
1/2
November 3, 2025 at 12:24 AM
What we know about NYC voters checking in early...
74% registered Democrat (12% Republican)
55% voted in the June Democratic primary
Most didn't vote in mayoral four years ago
Age breakdown:
16% 18-29
24% 30-44
33% 45-64
27% 65+
Combined 41% under 45! So, much younger than '17 and '21 electorates
74% registered Democrat (12% Republican)
55% voted in the June Democratic primary
Most didn't vote in mayoral four years ago
Age breakdown:
16% 18-29
24% 30-44
33% 45-64
27% 65+
Combined 41% under 45! So, much younger than '17 and '21 electorates
Another 151K check ins today, according to the NYC Board of Elections... which I believe is the highest on record in a single day (including during the 2024 presidential!)
So we're at 735,317 total. Other than depressed turnout on a rainy day, our model got it right on day five of early voting
1/2
So we're at 735,317 total. Other than depressed turnout on a rainy day, our model got it right on day five of early voting
1/2
November 2, 2025 at 11:49 PM
Another 151K check ins today, according to the NYC Board of Elections... which I believe is the highest on record in a single day (including during the 2024 presidential!)
So we're at 735,317 total. Other than depressed turnout on a rainy day, our model got it right on day five of early voting
1/2
So we're at 735,317 total. Other than depressed turnout on a rainy day, our model got it right on day five of early voting
1/2
Concern about effects of the government shutdown has risen
Americans w/ lower incomes are more concerned about being personally affected by it (have gone from 33% very concerned to 49% over last month)
And Congress is NOT seen as working to end the shutdown
More: www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-new...
Americans w/ lower incomes are more concerned about being personally affected by it (have gone from 33% very concerned to 49% over last month)
And Congress is NOT seen as working to end the shutdown
More: www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-new...
November 2, 2025 at 2:21 PM
Concern about effects of the government shutdown has risen
Americans w/ lower incomes are more concerned about being personally affected by it (have gone from 33% very concerned to 49% over last month)
And Congress is NOT seen as working to end the shutdown
More: www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-new...
Americans w/ lower incomes are more concerned about being personally affected by it (have gone from 33% very concerned to 49% over last month)
And Congress is NOT seen as working to end the shutdown
More: www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-new...
NEW
Trump sees his lowest approval ratings of term on handling:
Overall job (41%)
Economy (38%)
Inflation (34%)
Economy/inflation policies most important to people in judging administration
More *strongly* disapprove of his job handling (46%) than approve somewhat/strongly — true since July
1/2
Trump sees his lowest approval ratings of term on handling:
Overall job (41%)
Economy (38%)
Inflation (34%)
Economy/inflation policies most important to people in judging administration
More *strongly* disapprove of his job handling (46%) than approve somewhat/strongly — true since July
1/2
November 2, 2025 at 2:01 PM
NEW
Trump sees his lowest approval ratings of term on handling:
Overall job (41%)
Economy (38%)
Inflation (34%)
Economy/inflation policies most important to people in judging administration
More *strongly* disapprove of his job handling (46%) than approve somewhat/strongly — true since July
1/2
Trump sees his lowest approval ratings of term on handling:
Overall job (41%)
Economy (38%)
Inflation (34%)
Economy/inflation policies most important to people in judging administration
More *strongly* disapprove of his job handling (46%) than approve somewhat/strongly — true since July
1/2
As expected, share of NYC early voters <45 has grown over early voting period...
As of today, it's 39% of the 584K voters who've checked in, meaning it's a younger electorate than in past two mayorals
And we see healthy turnout in parts of Brooklyn and Queens where Mamdani did well in the primary
As of today, it's 39% of the 584K voters who've checked in, meaning it's a younger electorate than in past two mayorals
And we see healthy turnout in parts of Brooklyn and Queens where Mamdani did well in the primary
November 1, 2025 at 11:20 PM
As expected, share of NYC early voters <45 has grown over early voting period...
As of today, it's 39% of the 584K voters who've checked in, meaning it's a younger electorate than in past two mayorals
And we see healthy turnout in parts of Brooklyn and Queens where Mamdani did well in the primary
As of today, it's 39% of the 584K voters who've checked in, meaning it's a younger electorate than in past two mayorals
And we see healthy turnout in parts of Brooklyn and Queens where Mamdani did well in the primary
At this rate, we’re likely to see NYC's highest mayoral turnout rate in many years
It’s already on track to be highest in 20 years, may climb even higher
1.6 million total votes -> 34% turnout (would be highest rate since '01)
1.8 million -> 38% turnout
2 million -> 42% turnout (highest since '93)
It’s already on track to be highest in 20 years, may climb even higher
1.6 million total votes -> 34% turnout (would be highest rate since '01)
1.8 million -> 38% turnout
2 million -> 42% turnout (highest since '93)
October 30, 2025 at 1:19 PM
At this rate, we’re likely to see NYC's highest mayoral turnout rate in many years
It’s already on track to be highest in 20 years, may climb even higher
1.6 million total votes -> 34% turnout (would be highest rate since '01)
1.8 million -> 38% turnout
2 million -> 42% turnout (highest since '93)
It’s already on track to be highest in 20 years, may climb even higher
1.6 million total votes -> 34% turnout (would be highest rate since '01)
1.8 million -> 38% turnout
2 million -> 42% turnout (highest since '93)
NYC voters are turning out in large numbers during the early voting window, which is just over halfway complete
Daily haul is mirroring trajectory during 2022 midterms
You see larger volume on weekend (days 1-2), downtick on Monday (day 3), and uptick during extended voting hours (days 4-5)
1/2
Daily haul is mirroring trajectory during 2022 midterms
You see larger volume on weekend (days 1-2), downtick on Monday (day 3), and uptick during extended voting hours (days 4-5)
1/2
October 30, 2025 at 1:37 AM
NYC voters are turning out in large numbers during the early voting window, which is just over halfway complete
Daily haul is mirroring trajectory during 2022 midterms
You see larger volume on weekend (days 1-2), downtick on Monday (day 3), and uptick during extended voting hours (days 4-5)
1/2
Daily haul is mirroring trajectory during 2022 midterms
You see larger volume on weekend (days 1-2), downtick on Monday (day 3), and uptick during extended voting hours (days 4-5)
1/2
Reposted by Kabir K.
Even after weighting, there's a ton of poll-to-poll variation in estimates of support within demographic subgroups. Saving this for the next time someone goes sub-group diving with future polls.
October 29, 2025 at 7:15 PM
Even after weighting, there's a ton of poll-to-poll variation in estimates of support within demographic subgroups. Saving this for the next time someone goes sub-group diving with future polls.
Our AAPOR report on the 2024 polls is out today
It's a comprehensive look at pre-election polling, including how accurate polls were in historical context, demographic and geographic patterns, and the diversity of methodologies in this evolving industry
Check it out here: aapor.org/announcement...
It's a comprehensive look at pre-election polling, including how accurate polls were in historical context, demographic and geographic patterns, and the diversity of methodologies in this evolving industry
Check it out here: aapor.org/announcement...
October 29, 2025 at 6:39 PM
Our AAPOR report on the 2024 polls is out today
It's a comprehensive look at pre-election polling, including how accurate polls were in historical context, demographic and geographic patterns, and the diversity of methodologies in this evolving industry
Check it out here: aapor.org/announcement...
It's a comprehensive look at pre-election polling, including how accurate polls were in historical context, demographic and geographic patterns, and the diversity of methodologies in this evolving industry
Check it out here: aapor.org/announcement...
Reposted by Kabir K.
The AAPOR Task Force on 2024 Pre-Election Polling has released its final report today. aapor.org/wp-content/u...
aapor.org
October 29, 2025 at 5:33 PM
The AAPOR Task Force on 2024 Pre-Election Polling has released its final report today. aapor.org/wp-content/u...