Kabir K.
@kabirkhanna.bsky.social
Elections and Data Analytics at CBS News | Princeton political science PhD
Passaic County precinct analysis shows strong correlation between % Latino and swing
Some Latino Trump voters switched to Democrats, but swing also due to compositional change
Latino communities saw more churn in electorate — it looks like many Trump voters stayed home, and new voters broke D
2/3
Some Latino Trump voters switched to Democrats, but swing also due to compositional change
Latino communities saw more churn in electorate — it looks like many Trump voters stayed home, and new voters broke D
2/3
November 8, 2025 at 12:55 AM
Passaic County precinct analysis shows strong correlation between % Latino and swing
Some Latino Trump voters switched to Democrats, but swing also due to compositional change
Latino communities saw more churn in electorate — it looks like many Trump voters stayed home, and new voters broke D
2/3
Some Latino Trump voters switched to Democrats, but swing also due to compositional change
Latino communities saw more churn in electorate — it looks like many Trump voters stayed home, and new voters broke D
2/3
Latino voters swung hard to Democrats this week, largely erasing GOP inroads in '24
Trump first Republican win presidential vote in Passaic, NJ (70% Latino) — on Tuesday, the city flipped back
Nearby Paterson and Prospect Park also saw big swings, giving Sherrill better margins than Biden '20
1/3
Trump first Republican win presidential vote in Passaic, NJ (70% Latino) — on Tuesday, the city flipped back
Nearby Paterson and Prospect Park also saw big swings, giving Sherrill better margins than Biden '20
1/3
November 8, 2025 at 12:49 AM
Latino voters swung hard to Democrats this week, largely erasing GOP inroads in '24
Trump first Republican win presidential vote in Passaic, NJ (70% Latino) — on Tuesday, the city flipped back
Nearby Paterson and Prospect Park also saw big swings, giving Sherrill better margins than Biden '20
1/3
Trump first Republican win presidential vote in Passaic, NJ (70% Latino) — on Tuesday, the city flipped back
Nearby Paterson and Prospect Park also saw big swings, giving Sherrill better margins than Biden '20
1/3
Wow. Fresh data from NYC Board of Elections on electorate
Of those voting Tuesday, 17% are <30 and 25% are 30-44
Add to 41% of early voters <45, and share of young is much higher than recent mayorals
So while turnout increased in communities across the city, it increased *more* among young people
Of those voting Tuesday, 17% are <30 and 25% are 30-44
Add to 41% of early voters <45, and share of young is much higher than recent mayorals
So while turnout increased in communities across the city, it increased *more* among young people
November 6, 2025 at 4:57 PM
Wow. Fresh data from NYC Board of Elections on electorate
Of those voting Tuesday, 17% are <30 and 25% are 30-44
Add to 41% of early voters <45, and share of young is much higher than recent mayorals
So while turnout increased in communities across the city, it increased *more* among young people
Of those voting Tuesday, 17% are <30 and 25% are 30-44
Add to 41% of early voters <45, and share of young is much higher than recent mayorals
So while turnout increased in communities across the city, it increased *more* among young people
Ocean only red county w/ similar trend, but not enough to overcome urban blue places
Given D success w/ advance voters, Ciattarelli's only path was to win yesterday's voters, but Sherrill won them too, expanding lead she banked early
More w/ @simko.bsky.social
www.cbsnews.com/news/mikie-s...
2/2
Given D success w/ advance voters, Ciattarelli's only path was to win yesterday's voters, but Sherrill won them too, expanding lead she banked early
More w/ @simko.bsky.social
www.cbsnews.com/news/mikie-s...
2/2
November 6, 2025 at 1:17 AM
Ocean only red county w/ similar trend, but not enough to overcome urban blue places
Given D success w/ advance voters, Ciattarelli's only path was to win yesterday's voters, but Sherrill won them too, expanding lead she banked early
More w/ @simko.bsky.social
www.cbsnews.com/news/mikie-s...
2/2
Given D success w/ advance voters, Ciattarelli's only path was to win yesterday's voters, but Sherrill won them too, expanding lead she banked early
More w/ @simko.bsky.social
www.cbsnews.com/news/mikie-s...
2/2
NJ's bluest counties saw biggest turnout increases, propelling landslide
Three densest counties saw largest jumps from '21:
Hudson (Jersey City), Essex (Newark), Union
>30% increase in total vote
>30-pt Democratic margin
High-profile local races helped, e.g., Jersey City mayoral w/ former gov
1/2
Three densest counties saw largest jumps from '21:
Hudson (Jersey City), Essex (Newark), Union
>30% increase in total vote
>30-pt Democratic margin
High-profile local races helped, e.g., Jersey City mayoral w/ former gov
1/2
November 6, 2025 at 1:06 AM
NJ's bluest counties saw biggest turnout increases, propelling landslide
Three densest counties saw largest jumps from '21:
Hudson (Jersey City), Essex (Newark), Union
>30% increase in total vote
>30-pt Democratic margin
High-profile local races helped, e.g., Jersey City mayoral w/ former gov
1/2
Three densest counties saw largest jumps from '21:
Hudson (Jersey City), Essex (Newark), Union
>30% increase in total vote
>30-pt Democratic margin
High-profile local races helped, e.g., Jersey City mayoral w/ former gov
1/2
Just projected Prop 50 passing in California...
So here's the state's new congressional map
More on redistricting here: www.cbsnews.com/news/texas-c...
So here's the state's new congressional map
More on redistricting here: www.cbsnews.com/news/texas-c...
November 5, 2025 at 4:05 AM
Just projected Prop 50 passing in California...
So here's the state's new congressional map
More on redistricting here: www.cbsnews.com/news/texas-c...
So here's the state's new congressional map
More on redistricting here: www.cbsnews.com/news/texas-c...
Another 151K check ins today, according to the NYC Board of Elections... which I believe is the highest on record in a single day (including during the 2024 presidential!)
So we're at 735,317 total. Other than depressed turnout on a rainy day, our model got it right on day five of early voting
1/2
So we're at 735,317 total. Other than depressed turnout on a rainy day, our model got it right on day five of early voting
1/2
November 2, 2025 at 11:49 PM
Another 151K check ins today, according to the NYC Board of Elections... which I believe is the highest on record in a single day (including during the 2024 presidential!)
So we're at 735,317 total. Other than depressed turnout on a rainy day, our model got it right on day five of early voting
1/2
So we're at 735,317 total. Other than depressed turnout on a rainy day, our model got it right on day five of early voting
1/2
Concern about effects of the government shutdown has risen
Americans w/ lower incomes are more concerned about being personally affected by it (have gone from 33% very concerned to 49% over last month)
And Congress is NOT seen as working to end the shutdown
More: www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-new...
Americans w/ lower incomes are more concerned about being personally affected by it (have gone from 33% very concerned to 49% over last month)
And Congress is NOT seen as working to end the shutdown
More: www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-new...
November 2, 2025 at 2:21 PM
Concern about effects of the government shutdown has risen
Americans w/ lower incomes are more concerned about being personally affected by it (have gone from 33% very concerned to 49% over last month)
And Congress is NOT seen as working to end the shutdown
More: www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-new...
Americans w/ lower incomes are more concerned about being personally affected by it (have gone from 33% very concerned to 49% over last month)
And Congress is NOT seen as working to end the shutdown
More: www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-new...
NEW
Trump sees his lowest approval ratings of term on handling:
Overall job (41%)
Economy (38%)
Inflation (34%)
Economy/inflation policies most important to people in judging administration
More *strongly* disapprove of his job handling (46%) than approve somewhat/strongly — true since July
1/2
Trump sees his lowest approval ratings of term on handling:
Overall job (41%)
Economy (38%)
Inflation (34%)
Economy/inflation policies most important to people in judging administration
More *strongly* disapprove of his job handling (46%) than approve somewhat/strongly — true since July
1/2
November 2, 2025 at 2:01 PM
NEW
Trump sees his lowest approval ratings of term on handling:
Overall job (41%)
Economy (38%)
Inflation (34%)
Economy/inflation policies most important to people in judging administration
More *strongly* disapprove of his job handling (46%) than approve somewhat/strongly — true since July
1/2
Trump sees his lowest approval ratings of term on handling:
Overall job (41%)
Economy (38%)
Inflation (34%)
Economy/inflation policies most important to people in judging administration
More *strongly* disapprove of his job handling (46%) than approve somewhat/strongly — true since July
1/2
As expected, share of NYC early voters <45 has grown over early voting period...
As of today, it's 39% of the 584K voters who've checked in, meaning it's a younger electorate than in past two mayorals
And we see healthy turnout in parts of Brooklyn and Queens where Mamdani did well in the primary
As of today, it's 39% of the 584K voters who've checked in, meaning it's a younger electorate than in past two mayorals
And we see healthy turnout in parts of Brooklyn and Queens where Mamdani did well in the primary
November 1, 2025 at 11:20 PM
As expected, share of NYC early voters <45 has grown over early voting period...
As of today, it's 39% of the 584K voters who've checked in, meaning it's a younger electorate than in past two mayorals
And we see healthy turnout in parts of Brooklyn and Queens where Mamdani did well in the primary
As of today, it's 39% of the 584K voters who've checked in, meaning it's a younger electorate than in past two mayorals
And we see healthy turnout in parts of Brooklyn and Queens where Mamdani did well in the primary
At this rate, we’re likely to see NYC's highest mayoral turnout rate in many years
It’s already on track to be highest in 20 years, may climb even higher
1.6 million total votes -> 34% turnout (would be highest rate since '01)
1.8 million -> 38% turnout
2 million -> 42% turnout (highest since '93)
It’s already on track to be highest in 20 years, may climb even higher
1.6 million total votes -> 34% turnout (would be highest rate since '01)
1.8 million -> 38% turnout
2 million -> 42% turnout (highest since '93)
October 30, 2025 at 1:19 PM
At this rate, we’re likely to see NYC's highest mayoral turnout rate in many years
It’s already on track to be highest in 20 years, may climb even higher
1.6 million total votes -> 34% turnout (would be highest rate since '01)
1.8 million -> 38% turnout
2 million -> 42% turnout (highest since '93)
It’s already on track to be highest in 20 years, may climb even higher
1.6 million total votes -> 34% turnout (would be highest rate since '01)
1.8 million -> 38% turnout
2 million -> 42% turnout (highest since '93)
IF this trend continues, we'll see a big uptick this weekend and hit approximately 750,000 early votes by Sunday night
That's in addition to mail ballots cast ahead of Election Day
All signs point to an overall turnout rate that's much higher than what NYC typically sees for mayoral elections
2/2
That's in addition to mail ballots cast ahead of Election Day
All signs point to an overall turnout rate that's much higher than what NYC typically sees for mayoral elections
2/2
October 30, 2025 at 1:37 AM
IF this trend continues, we'll see a big uptick this weekend and hit approximately 750,000 early votes by Sunday night
That's in addition to mail ballots cast ahead of Election Day
All signs point to an overall turnout rate that's much higher than what NYC typically sees for mayoral elections
2/2
That's in addition to mail ballots cast ahead of Election Day
All signs point to an overall turnout rate that's much higher than what NYC typically sees for mayoral elections
2/2
NYC voters are turning out in large numbers during the early voting window, which is just over halfway complete
Daily haul is mirroring trajectory during 2022 midterms
You see larger volume on weekend (days 1-2), downtick on Monday (day 3), and uptick during extended voting hours (days 4-5)
1/2
Daily haul is mirroring trajectory during 2022 midterms
You see larger volume on weekend (days 1-2), downtick on Monday (day 3), and uptick during extended voting hours (days 4-5)
1/2
October 30, 2025 at 1:37 AM
NYC voters are turning out in large numbers during the early voting window, which is just over halfway complete
Daily haul is mirroring trajectory during 2022 midterms
You see larger volume on weekend (days 1-2), downtick on Monday (day 3), and uptick during extended voting hours (days 4-5)
1/2
Daily haul is mirroring trajectory during 2022 midterms
You see larger volume on weekend (days 1-2), downtick on Monday (day 3), and uptick during extended voting hours (days 4-5)
1/2
Our AAPOR report on the 2024 polls is out today
It's a comprehensive look at pre-election polling, including how accurate polls were in historical context, demographic and geographic patterns, and the diversity of methodologies in this evolving industry
Check it out here: aapor.org/announcement...
It's a comprehensive look at pre-election polling, including how accurate polls were in historical context, demographic and geographic patterns, and the diversity of methodologies in this evolving industry
Check it out here: aapor.org/announcement...
October 29, 2025 at 6:39 PM
Our AAPOR report on the 2024 polls is out today
It's a comprehensive look at pre-election polling, including how accurate polls were in historical context, demographic and geographic patterns, and the diversity of methodologies in this evolving industry
Check it out here: aapor.org/announcement...
It's a comprehensive look at pre-election polling, including how accurate polls were in historical context, demographic and geographic patterns, and the diversity of methodologies in this evolving industry
Check it out here: aapor.org/announcement...
Trump deploying National Guard to U.S. cities is not popular — its support level matches his (underwater) job approval rating
Deploying active duty finds even less favor, with only 31% of Americans saying troops in their area would make them feel more secure
Latest: www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-new...
Deploying active duty finds even less favor, with only 31% of Americans saying troops in their area would make them feel more secure
Latest: www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-new...
October 6, 2025 at 4:23 PM
Trump deploying National Guard to U.S. cities is not popular — its support level matches his (underwater) job approval rating
Deploying active duty finds even less favor, with only 31% of Americans saying troops in their area would make them feel more secure
Latest: www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-new...
Deploying active duty finds even less favor, with only 31% of Americans saying troops in their area would make them feel more secure
Latest: www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-new...
Couple data points as we approach two years since Oct 7
Support for U.S. arming Israel has hit new low, at just 33%
Support for U.S. aid to Gaza has risen to highest we've seen
Trump approval rating on handling conflict largely unchanged (note: survey fielded before reports of possible ceasefire)
Support for U.S. arming Israel has hit new low, at just 33%
Support for U.S. aid to Gaza has risen to highest we've seen
Trump approval rating on handling conflict largely unchanged (note: survey fielded before reports of possible ceasefire)
October 5, 2025 at 2:46 PM
Couple data points as we approach two years since Oct 7
Support for U.S. arming Israel has hit new low, at just 33%
Support for U.S. aid to Gaza has risen to highest we've seen
Trump approval rating on handling conflict largely unchanged (note: survey fielded before reports of possible ceasefire)
Support for U.S. arming Israel has hit new low, at just 33%
Support for U.S. aid to Gaza has risen to highest we've seen
Trump approval rating on handling conflict largely unchanged (note: survey fielded before reports of possible ceasefire)
Fewer call Trump "focused" than did at start of this term
Large majority says administration isn't paying enough attention to prices, with most saying it's too focused on tariffs
Few say Trump's policies are making them any better off
And now, most say Trump's policies are costing U.S. jobs
2/3
Large majority says administration isn't paying enough attention to prices, with most saying it's too focused on tariffs
Few say Trump's policies are making them any better off
And now, most say Trump's policies are costing U.S. jobs
2/3
October 5, 2025 at 1:31 PM
Fewer call Trump "focused" than did at start of this term
Large majority says administration isn't paying enough attention to prices, with most saying it's too focused on tariffs
Few say Trump's policies are making them any better off
And now, most say Trump's policies are costing U.S. jobs
2/3
Large majority says administration isn't paying enough attention to prices, with most saying it's too focused on tariffs
Few say Trump's policies are making them any better off
And now, most say Trump's policies are costing U.S. jobs
2/3
Amit shutdown and persistent econonmic concerns, Trump approval rating back to its low point this term
New lows among women (36%), White people (49%), Trump voters (85%), Republicans (87%)
At 35%, approval on handling inflation also at a low
Just half say he is doing what he promised in 2024
1/3
New lows among women (36%), White people (49%), Trump voters (85%), Republicans (87%)
At 35%, approval on handling inflation also at a low
Just half say he is doing what he promised in 2024
1/3
October 5, 2025 at 1:26 PM
Amit shutdown and persistent econonmic concerns, Trump approval rating back to its low point this term
New lows among women (36%), White people (49%), Trump voters (85%), Republicans (87%)
At 35%, approval on handling inflation also at a low
Just half say he is doing what he promised in 2024
1/3
New lows among women (36%), White people (49%), Trump voters (85%), Republicans (87%)
At 35%, approval on handling inflation also at a low
Just half say he is doing what he promised in 2024
1/3
Possible signs of receptivity to Democratic messaging...
Independents likelier to say Dem positions worth shutdown than GOP's are, especially those closely following news
Among independents paying closest attention:
Most blame Trump/GOP more for shutdown
Most say debate primarily about health care
Independents likelier to say Dem positions worth shutdown than GOP's are, especially those closely following news
Among independents paying closest attention:
Most blame Trump/GOP more for shutdown
Most say debate primarily about health care
October 5, 2025 at 1:16 PM
Possible signs of receptivity to Democratic messaging...
Independents likelier to say Dem positions worth shutdown than GOP's are, especially those closely following news
Among independents paying closest attention:
Most blame Trump/GOP more for shutdown
Most say debate primarily about health care
Independents likelier to say Dem positions worth shutdown than GOP's are, especially those closely following news
Among independents paying closest attention:
Most blame Trump/GOP more for shutdown
Most say debate primarily about health care
NEW
Few say government shutdown is worth it, amid concern about economic impact and low marks for Democrats, Republicans, and Trump's handling
More blame for Trump & GOP than Democrats currently
"Extreme" top descriptor for GOP
"Weak" top descriptor for Democrats
www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-new...
Few say government shutdown is worth it, amid concern about economic impact and low marks for Democrats, Republicans, and Trump's handling
More blame for Trump & GOP than Democrats currently
"Extreme" top descriptor for GOP
"Weak" top descriptor for Democrats
www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-new...
October 5, 2025 at 1:00 PM
NEW
Few say government shutdown is worth it, amid concern about economic impact and low marks for Democrats, Republicans, and Trump's handling
More blame for Trump & GOP than Democrats currently
"Extreme" top descriptor for GOP
"Weak" top descriptor for Democrats
www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-new...
Few say government shutdown is worth it, amid concern about economic impact and low marks for Democrats, Republicans, and Trump's handling
More blame for Trump & GOP than Democrats currently
"Extreme" top descriptor for GOP
"Weak" top descriptor for Democrats
www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-new...
How often do Americans talk politics with someone of differing views?
Not much... and it's even less so than four years ago
Most aren't comfortable expressing views publicly, and see consequences like insults/threats/problems at work
Cross-cutting conversations likelier in person than online
1/2
Not much... and it's even less so than four years ago
Most aren't comfortable expressing views publicly, and see consequences like insults/threats/problems at work
Cross-cutting conversations likelier in person than online
1/2
October 3, 2025 at 10:00 PM
How often do Americans talk politics with someone of differing views?
Not much... and it's even less so than four years ago
Most aren't comfortable expressing views publicly, and see consequences like insults/threats/problems at work
Cross-cutting conversations likelier in person than online
1/2
Not much... and it's even less so than four years ago
Most aren't comfortable expressing views publicly, and see consequences like insults/threats/problems at work
Cross-cutting conversations likelier in person than online
1/2
NEW
Lots of concern about AI's impact on economy/jobs
Majority now say AI companies will hurt economy — that view spans education/income levels, but less prevalent among young
Big change from early internet years, when most felt dot com growth helped economy
More: www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-ne...
Lots of concern about AI's impact on economy/jobs
Majority now say AI companies will hurt economy — that view spans education/income levels, but less prevalent among young
Big change from early internet years, when most felt dot com growth helped economy
More: www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-ne...
October 3, 2025 at 12:28 AM
NEW
Lots of concern about AI's impact on economy/jobs
Majority now say AI companies will hurt economy — that view spans education/income levels, but less prevalent among young
Big change from early internet years, when most felt dot com growth helped economy
More: www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-ne...
Lots of concern about AI's impact on economy/jobs
Majority now say AI companies will hurt economy — that view spans education/income levels, but less prevalent among young
Big change from early internet years, when most felt dot com growth helped economy
More: www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-ne...
Today, just over half say job market is bad — worse than evaluations this spring
Most say if they were job hunting, it would be hard to find the kind they want
Market is not seen as growing: only 12% see more good jobs where they live than five years ago
More: www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-ne...
2/2
Most say if they were job hunting, it would be hard to find the kind they want
Market is not seen as growing: only 12% see more good jobs where they live than five years ago
More: www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-ne...
2/2
October 3, 2025 at 12:09 AM
Today, just over half say job market is bad — worse than evaluations this spring
Most say if they were job hunting, it would be hard to find the kind they want
Market is not seen as growing: only 12% see more good jobs where they live than five years ago
More: www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-ne...
2/2
Most say if they were job hunting, it would be hard to find the kind they want
Market is not seen as growing: only 12% see more good jobs where they live than five years ago
More: www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-ne...
2/2
NEW
Americans remain pessimistic about economy, with most now rating job market negatively, alongside inflation concern
Another uptick in share saying economy's getting worse, with prices still big factor in evaluations
At 64%, share saying prices have been rising is highest it's been in '25
1/2
Americans remain pessimistic about economy, with most now rating job market negatively, alongside inflation concern
Another uptick in share saying economy's getting worse, with prices still big factor in evaluations
At 64%, share saying prices have been rising is highest it's been in '25
1/2
October 3, 2025 at 12:01 AM
NEW
Americans remain pessimistic about economy, with most now rating job market negatively, alongside inflation concern
Another uptick in share saying economy's getting worse, with prices still big factor in evaluations
At 64%, share saying prices have been rising is highest it's been in '25
1/2
Americans remain pessimistic about economy, with most now rating job market negatively, alongside inflation concern
Another uptick in share saying economy's getting worse, with prices still big factor in evaluations
At 64%, share saying prices have been rising is highest it's been in '25
1/2
Eric Adams not much of a factor, with so many voters saying things in NYC are going badly and just 27% approval rating
Cuomo is 2nd choice for bulk of Adams voters...
But with so few Adams voters, re-allocating them to 2nd choice barely dents Mamdani lead
(Sliwa dropping would have bigger impact)
Cuomo is 2nd choice for bulk of Adams voters...
But with so few Adams voters, re-allocating them to 2nd choice barely dents Mamdani lead
(Sliwa dropping would have bigger impact)
September 15, 2025 at 9:09 PM
Eric Adams not much of a factor, with so many voters saying things in NYC are going badly and just 27% approval rating
Cuomo is 2nd choice for bulk of Adams voters...
But with so few Adams voters, re-allocating them to 2nd choice barely dents Mamdani lead
(Sliwa dropping would have bigger impact)
Cuomo is 2nd choice for bulk of Adams voters...
But with so few Adams voters, re-allocating them to 2nd choice barely dents Mamdani lead
(Sliwa dropping would have bigger impact)