Kabir K.
@kabirkhanna.bsky.social
Elections and Data Analytics at CBS News | Princeton political science PhD
Virginia also shows signs of Latino shift (see Manassas/Manassas Park)
Trump drag in both states, with high disapproval number and majorities saying his immigration actions have gone too far (59% in NJ + 77% in VA!)
NJ Latinos prefer next governor not cooperate on immigration
Read more below
3/3
Trump drag in both states, with high disapproval number and majorities saying his immigration actions have gone too far (59% in NJ + 77% in VA!)
NJ Latinos prefer next governor not cooperate on immigration
Read more below
3/3
Latino voters swing toward Democrats in 2025 after Trump's 2024 historic gains
Mikie Sherrill flipped 18% of Latino Trump voters and won Latino men and women in her race for New Jersey governor.
www.cbsnews.com
November 8, 2025 at 1:14 AM
Virginia also shows signs of Latino shift (see Manassas/Manassas Park)
Trump drag in both states, with high disapproval number and majorities saying his immigration actions have gone too far (59% in NJ + 77% in VA!)
NJ Latinos prefer next governor not cooperate on immigration
Read more below
3/3
Trump drag in both states, with high disapproval number and majorities saying his immigration actions have gone too far (59% in NJ + 77% in VA!)
NJ Latinos prefer next governor not cooperate on immigration
Read more below
3/3
Passaic County precinct analysis shows strong correlation between % Latino and swing
Some Latino Trump voters switched to Democrats, but swing also due to compositional change
Latino communities saw more churn in electorate — it looks like many Trump voters stayed home, and new voters broke D
2/3
Some Latino Trump voters switched to Democrats, but swing also due to compositional change
Latino communities saw more churn in electorate — it looks like many Trump voters stayed home, and new voters broke D
2/3
November 8, 2025 at 12:55 AM
Passaic County precinct analysis shows strong correlation between % Latino and swing
Some Latino Trump voters switched to Democrats, but swing also due to compositional change
Latino communities saw more churn in electorate — it looks like many Trump voters stayed home, and new voters broke D
2/3
Some Latino Trump voters switched to Democrats, but swing also due to compositional change
Latino communities saw more churn in electorate — it looks like many Trump voters stayed home, and new voters broke D
2/3
Seems plausible, but how did you get to 70-30?
November 6, 2025 at 8:49 PM
Seems plausible, but how did you get to 70-30?
Ocean only red county w/ similar trend, but not enough to overcome urban blue places
Given D success w/ advance voters, Ciattarelli's only path was to win yesterday's voters, but Sherrill won them too, expanding lead she banked early
More w/ @simko.bsky.social
www.cbsnews.com/news/mikie-s...
2/2
Given D success w/ advance voters, Ciattarelli's only path was to win yesterday's voters, but Sherrill won them too, expanding lead she banked early
More w/ @simko.bsky.social
www.cbsnews.com/news/mikie-s...
2/2
November 6, 2025 at 1:17 AM
Ocean only red county w/ similar trend, but not enough to overcome urban blue places
Given D success w/ advance voters, Ciattarelli's only path was to win yesterday's voters, but Sherrill won them too, expanding lead she banked early
More w/ @simko.bsky.social
www.cbsnews.com/news/mikie-s...
2/2
Given D success w/ advance voters, Ciattarelli's only path was to win yesterday's voters, but Sherrill won them too, expanding lead she banked early
More w/ @simko.bsky.social
www.cbsnews.com/news/mikie-s...
2/2
It's hard to pinpoint given changing patterns of advance voting, but anything in 1.5-2.1 million range seems possible for total tally
bsky.app/profile/kabi...
bsky.app/profile/kabi...
Question now is what % of ALL votes cast will 735K be?
In '24, early check ins 38.6% of all votes -> that implies 1.9 million mayoral votes
In '25 primary, early check ins 34.5% -> over 2 million votes
But % may land in 40s, as early voting has gained traction and might cannibalize more E-Day
2/2
In '24, early check ins 38.6% of all votes -> that implies 1.9 million mayoral votes
In '25 primary, early check ins 34.5% -> over 2 million votes
But % may land in 40s, as early voting has gained traction and might cannibalize more E-Day
2/2
November 3, 2025 at 12:48 AM
It's hard to pinpoint given changing patterns of advance voting, but anything in 1.5-2.1 million range seems possible for total tally
bsky.app/profile/kabi...
bsky.app/profile/kabi...
16% 18-29
24% 30-44
33% 45-64
27% 65+
(Source: NYC Board of Elections)
24% 30-44
33% 45-64
27% 65+
(Source: NYC Board of Elections)
November 3, 2025 at 12:19 AM
16% 18-29
24% 30-44
33% 45-64
27% 65+
(Source: NYC Board of Elections)
24% 30-44
33% 45-64
27% 65+
(Source: NYC Board of Elections)
Question now is what % of ALL votes cast will 735K be?
In '24, early check ins 38.6% of all votes -> that implies 1.9 million mayoral votes
In '25 primary, early check ins 34.5% -> over 2 million votes
But % may land in 40s, as early voting has gained traction and might cannibalize more E-Day
2/2
In '24, early check ins 38.6% of all votes -> that implies 1.9 million mayoral votes
In '25 primary, early check ins 34.5% -> over 2 million votes
But % may land in 40s, as early voting has gained traction and might cannibalize more E-Day
2/2
November 3, 2025 at 12:07 AM
Question now is what % of ALL votes cast will 735K be?
In '24, early check ins 38.6% of all votes -> that implies 1.9 million mayoral votes
In '25 primary, early check ins 34.5% -> over 2 million votes
But % may land in 40s, as early voting has gained traction and might cannibalize more E-Day
2/2
In '24, early check ins 38.6% of all votes -> that implies 1.9 million mayoral votes
In '25 primary, early check ins 34.5% -> over 2 million votes
But % may land in 40s, as early voting has gained traction and might cannibalize more E-Day
2/2