John T Ormerod
@johntormerod.bsky.social
Statistician at Sydney University.
Reposted by John T Ormerod
ChatGPT gave a significant portion of my students the wrong answer to an easy quiz question that everyone used to always get right
I had two groups of students turn in annotated bibliographies that were ChatGPT generated - not a single citation actually existed
I had two groups of students turn in annotated bibliographies that were ChatGPT generated - not a single citation actually existed
October 17, 2025 at 1:27 AM
ChatGPT gave a significant portion of my students the wrong answer to an easy quiz question that everyone used to always get right
I had two groups of students turn in annotated bibliographies that were ChatGPT generated - not a single citation actually existed
I had two groups of students turn in annotated bibliographies that were ChatGPT generated - not a single citation actually existed
Reposted by John T Ormerod
Make errors more accessible and better with #rstats package {more} by @milesmcbain.bsky.social - inspired by rustc's detailed error explanations! This idea feels so good.
github.com/milesmcbain/...
github.com/milesmcbain/...
GitHub - MilesMcBain/more: Serve up more when things go bad
Serve up more when things go bad. Contribute to MilesMcBain/more development by creating an account on GitHub.
github.com
August 18, 2025 at 4:28 AM
Make errors more accessible and better with #rstats package {more} by @milesmcbain.bsky.social - inspired by rustc's detailed error explanations! This idea feels so good.
github.com/milesmcbain/...
github.com/milesmcbain/...
Reposted by John T Ormerod
Reposted by John T Ormerod
New #rstats blog up!
solomonkurz.netlify.app/blog/2025-07...
This is the second post in the series where we use {brms} to learn {Stan} code. This time we review matrix notation, model matrices, and a new class of distribution functions in Stan.
solomonkurz.netlify.app/blog/2025-07...
This is the second post in the series where we use {brms} to learn {Stan} code. This time we review matrix notation, model matrices, and a new class of distribution functions in Stan.
July 14, 2025 at 2:12 PM
New #rstats blog up!
solomonkurz.netlify.app/blog/2025-07...
This is the second post in the series where we use {brms} to learn {Stan} code. This time we review matrix notation, model matrices, and a new class of distribution functions in Stan.
solomonkurz.netlify.app/blog/2025-07...
This is the second post in the series where we use {brms} to learn {Stan} code. This time we review matrix notation, model matrices, and a new class of distribution functions in Stan.
Fiducial inference
July 7, 2025 at 9:03 AM
Fiducial inference
Reposted by John T Ormerod
As the prior probability of any arbitrary molecule curing a cancer is extremely low than by Bayes rule alone even an extremely efficient science would produce many false positives.
June 29, 2025 at 10:42 AM
As the prior probability of any arbitrary molecule curing a cancer is extremely low than by Bayes rule alone even an extremely efficient science would produce many false positives.
Seems to be the most rational position these days.
June 24, 2025 at 2:52 PM
Seems to be the most rational position these days.
Reposted by John T Ormerod
Come on over to BlueSky, Simone!
Advocate 24 Jun 25 -- Simone Biles, the most decorated gymnast in history has been forced to deactivate her X account with 1.9m followers after being dogpiled following her attack on anti-trans bigot Riley Gaines. @rikiwilchins.bsky.social
Simone Biles deactivates X account after comments about transgender athletes
Biles advocated for a transgender category in all sports. Anti-trans activist Riley Gaines said the gymnast was "rightly ridiculed" and celebrated the departure from X.
www.advocate.com
June 24, 2025 at 2:21 PM
Come on over to BlueSky, Simone!
Reposted by John T Ormerod
Reposted by John T Ormerod
Business groups often say that cutting the company tax rate will lead to more business investment and higher productivity.
But Australia Institute research shows that cutting the company tax rate does NOTHING to boost business investment
@grogsgamut.bsky.social #auspol
But Australia Institute research shows that cutting the company tax rate does NOTHING to boost business investment
@grogsgamut.bsky.social #auspol
June 18, 2025 at 7:20 AM
Business groups often say that cutting the company tax rate will lead to more business investment and higher productivity.
But Australia Institute research shows that cutting the company tax rate does NOTHING to boost business investment
@grogsgamut.bsky.social #auspol
But Australia Institute research shows that cutting the company tax rate does NOTHING to boost business investment
@grogsgamut.bsky.social #auspol
Waiting for my MCMC to finish.
June 17, 2025 at 8:32 AM
Waiting for my MCMC to finish.
Reposted by John T Ormerod
Lollipop plot of Supreme Court judge terms from the `historydata` R package for #TidyTuesday .
Winner of the longest term award goes to Stanley Reed, appointed in 1938 and serving for 42 years.
Read about my plotting process here jenrichmond.github.io/posts/2025-0...
Winner of the longest term award goes to Stanley Reed, appointed in 1938 and serving for 42 years.
Read about my plotting process here jenrichmond.github.io/posts/2025-0...
June 10, 2025 at 9:22 AM
Lollipop plot of Supreme Court judge terms from the `historydata` R package for #TidyTuesday .
Winner of the longest term award goes to Stanley Reed, appointed in 1938 and serving for 42 years.
Read about my plotting process here jenrichmond.github.io/posts/2025-0...
Winner of the longest term award goes to Stanley Reed, appointed in 1938 and serving for 42 years.
Read about my plotting process here jenrichmond.github.io/posts/2025-0...
Reposted by John T Ormerod
"We thank the reviewers for their helpful comments"
May 31, 2025 at 12:56 PM
"We thank the reviewers for their helpful comments"
Reposted by John T Ormerod
I could recommend these four papers of ours for starters:
1. journals.plos.org/plosone/arti...
2. royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/abs/10.1...
3. royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/abs/10.1...
4. philsci-archive.pitt.edu/24738/
1. journals.plos.org/plosone/arti...
2. royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/abs/10.1...
3. royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/abs/10.1...
4. philsci-archive.pitt.edu/24738/
Scientific discovery in a model-centric framework: Reproducibility, innovation, and epistemic diversity
Consistent confirmations obtained independently of each other lend credibility to a scientific result. We refer to results satisfying this consistency as reproducible and assume that reproducibility i...
journals.plos.org
May 31, 2025 at 6:12 AM
I could recommend these four papers of ours for starters:
1. journals.plos.org/plosone/arti...
2. royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/abs/10.1...
3. royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/abs/10.1...
4. philsci-archive.pitt.edu/24738/
1. journals.plos.org/plosone/arti...
2. royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/abs/10.1...
3. royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/abs/10.1...
4. philsci-archive.pitt.edu/24738/
Reposted by John T Ormerod
"Net" zero is little more than a con to maintain fossil fuels.
So, what is "real" zero?
@richarddenniss.bsky.social joined ABC Radio Illawarra to explain that "real" zero is simple: less bad things & more of the good things. #auspol #climate
So, what is "real" zero?
@richarddenniss.bsky.social joined ABC Radio Illawarra to explain that "real" zero is simple: less bad things & more of the good things. #auspol #climate
May 29, 2025 at 1:42 AM
"Net" zero is little more than a con to maintain fossil fuels.
So, what is "real" zero?
@richarddenniss.bsky.social joined ABC Radio Illawarra to explain that "real" zero is simple: less bad things & more of the good things. #auspol #climate
So, what is "real" zero?
@richarddenniss.bsky.social joined ABC Radio Illawarra to explain that "real" zero is simple: less bad things & more of the good things. #auspol #climate
Reposted by John T Ormerod
There is no "science-wide replication crisis" because every word in that phrase carries unfounded assumptions. 🧵
1. There is no evidence that progress has generally stalled in the sciences. Also, no one has actually tried to estimate replicability across fields.
1. There is no evidence that progress has generally stalled in the sciences. Also, no one has actually tried to estimate replicability across fields.
May 27, 2025 at 9:31 PM
There is no "science-wide replication crisis" because every word in that phrase carries unfounded assumptions. 🧵
1. There is no evidence that progress has generally stalled in the sciences. Also, no one has actually tried to estimate replicability across fields.
1. There is no evidence that progress has generally stalled in the sciences. Also, no one has actually tried to estimate replicability across fields.
Reposted by John T Ormerod
Wow. This take is incredibly wrong.
“It takes two to make the planet collapse, rich AND poor. We emitted all this carbon together.”
Nope. Not true. The region with the highest fertility—Africa—contributes just 3.7% of global GHG emissions.
georgetsakraklides.substack.com/p/why-none-o...
“It takes two to make the planet collapse, rich AND poor. We emitted all this carbon together.”
Nope. Not true. The region with the highest fertility—Africa—contributes just 3.7% of global GHG emissions.
georgetsakraklides.substack.com/p/why-none-o...
Why None of These People Will Ever Talk to You About Overpopulation
The Civilisational Lie Series
georgetsakraklides.substack.com
May 19, 2025 at 11:48 AM
Wow. This take is incredibly wrong.
“It takes two to make the planet collapse, rich AND poor. We emitted all this carbon together.”
Nope. Not true. The region with the highest fertility—Africa—contributes just 3.7% of global GHG emissions.
georgetsakraklides.substack.com/p/why-none-o...
“It takes two to make the planet collapse, rich AND poor. We emitted all this carbon together.”
Nope. Not true. The region with the highest fertility—Africa—contributes just 3.7% of global GHG emissions.
georgetsakraklides.substack.com/p/why-none-o...
My cockatiel, Apline, got a feather caught in its crest today and tried its best to imitate an angler fish.
May 20, 2025 at 10:06 AM
My cockatiel, Apline, got a feather caught in its crest today and tried its best to imitate an angler fish.
Published online today. Gaussian Variational Approximation for Ordinal Data with Crossed Random Effects with Manja Grønberg and Line Clemmensen. Fitting recommender systems data with millions of observations in minutes.
www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1...
www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1...
www.tandfonline.com
May 19, 2025 at 12:11 PM
Published online today. Gaussian Variational Approximation for Ordinal Data with Crossed Random Effects with Manja Grønberg and Line Clemmensen. Fitting recommender systems data with millions of observations in minutes.
www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1...
www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1...
Reposted by John T Ormerod
Today is #IDAHOBIT and honestly what's the point. I am a cisgender, gender conforming lesbian in a traditional marriage, able bodied, White, middle class (these days) and I work in a liberal sector. In safety terms I am the top of the queer pyramid and for the first time in my life I am terrified.
May 17, 2025 at 1:31 PM
Today is #IDAHOBIT and honestly what's the point. I am a cisgender, gender conforming lesbian in a traditional marriage, able bodied, White, middle class (these days) and I work in a liberal sector. In safety terms I am the top of the queer pyramid and for the first time in my life I am terrified.
Reposted by John T Ormerod
Reposted by John T Ormerod
Re-reading the wonderful "Toward a More Accurate Notion of Exploratory Research" by @devezer.bsky.social & @ufeest.bsky.social. Exploration is perhaps my default mode of inquiry. Start from curiosity, develop expectations, w the expectation that research will resist them and they will change. 1/
Alright it's here! Where we push back against the exploratory-confirmatory distinction that's become canonized in metascience and talk about what we think exploratory research (including exploratory experimentation and modeling) means and why our view is incompatible with 'unplanned data analyses'.
May 13, 2025 at 7:30 AM
Re-reading the wonderful "Toward a More Accurate Notion of Exploratory Research" by @devezer.bsky.social & @ufeest.bsky.social. Exploration is perhaps my default mode of inquiry. Start from curiosity, develop expectations, w the expectation that research will resist them and they will change. 1/
Reposted by John T Ormerod
Monash University has made many positions available specifically for young and early career researchers who would like to take some time away from the USA. These are case by case, not advertised. So if you are interested or know anyone interested have them get in contact with someone at Monash.
May 15, 2025 at 6:27 PM
Monash University has made many positions available specifically for young and early career researchers who would like to take some time away from the USA. These are case by case, not advertised. So if you are interested or know anyone interested have them get in contact with someone at Monash.
Reposted by John T Ormerod
America declares tech war against Huawei www.fxstreet.com/analysis/the...
The Silicon sword drops: US redraws the AI battlefield and cuts Huawei out of the game
Forget soybeans and T-shirts—this was never about trade deficits.
www.fxstreet.com
May 14, 2025 at 7:41 AM
America declares tech war against Huawei www.fxstreet.com/analysis/the...