Fed guy
@jerome-powell.bsky.social
vibecession forever. jpow wishes this was his burner. (for clarity, I am not jerome powell)
Trump admin is pretty clearly fixated on UST yields
April 9, 2025 at 8:31 PM
Trump admin is pretty clearly fixated on UST yields
Base case is that Trumpland only reacts to 10y yields. But what is the breakeven point for reaction? 4.5? 4.6? Up to 5?
April 9, 2025 at 7:09 AM
Base case is that Trumpland only reacts to 10y yields. But what is the breakeven point for reaction? 4.5? 4.6? Up to 5?
This is probably the most desired outcome for the Trump admin and a speedrun to Mar-a-Lago endgame without any international agreement. Currency depreciation and lower bond yields? Check. Real economy be damned
🚨 New column on the US Treasury bond reaction to Trump's act of economic self-sabotage. No Liz Truss moment, though Miran's coercive debt swap plan would change everything. on.ft.com/41ZIqCE
April 4, 2025 at 5:42 PM
This is probably the most desired outcome for the Trump admin and a speedrun to Mar-a-Lago endgame without any international agreement. Currency depreciation and lower bond yields? Check. Real economy be damned
We're in the Mar-a-Lago accords endgame now
April 3, 2025 at 11:50 PM
We're in the Mar-a-Lago accords endgame now
Trump & Bessent have a point when focusing on lowering energy costs to stifle inflation - energy supply shocks have historically had drastic effects on productivity which can also lead to falls in aggregate demand. Question is why does this justify LNG exports?
February 6, 2025 at 3:36 PM
Trump & Bessent have a point when focusing on lowering energy costs to stifle inflation - energy supply shocks have historically had drastic effects on productivity which can also lead to falls in aggregate demand. Question is why does this justify LNG exports?
The best path forward for Democrats in upcoming budget fight will be save unpopular (but useful) institutions that won't get much attention - incl. & e.g., USAID. When Dems use political capital in Trump years to save Social Sec and Medicare, avg voters attribute this to Trump/Rs saving them
February 4, 2025 at 5:33 PM
The best path forward for Democrats in upcoming budget fight will be save unpopular (but useful) institutions that won't get much attention - incl. & e.g., USAID. When Dems use political capital in Trump years to save Social Sec and Medicare, avg voters attribute this to Trump/Rs saving them
Tariff man does nothing again
Trump's call on the tariffs is hooked up to his bloomberg terminal
February 3, 2025 at 10:22 PM
Tariff man does nothing again
Nothing ever happens
February 3, 2025 at 5:31 PM
Nothing ever happens
Trump's call on the tariffs is hooked up to his bloomberg terminal
February 3, 2025 at 5:29 PM
Trump's call on the tariffs is hooked up to his bloomberg terminal
Wait I thought the tariffs were priced in?
February 3, 2025 at 4:41 AM
Wait I thought the tariffs were priced in?
Bubble is getting more fragile by the day
January 29, 2025 at 8:05 PM
Bubble is getting more fragile by the day
A few things can be true at the same time.
(1) DeepSeek changes the calculus for capex investments into AI and infrastructure. If less time/energy needs to be spent building each model and all else stays equal, we've drastically overestimated capex required for AI, with reduced ROI on investments
(1) DeepSeek changes the calculus for capex investments into AI and infrastructure. If less time/energy needs to be spent building each model and all else stays equal, we've drastically overestimated capex required for AI, with reduced ROI on investments
January 28, 2025 at 5:53 PM
A few things can be true at the same time.
(1) DeepSeek changes the calculus for capex investments into AI and infrastructure. If less time/energy needs to be spent building each model and all else stays equal, we've drastically overestimated capex required for AI, with reduced ROI on investments
(1) DeepSeek changes the calculus for capex investments into AI and infrastructure. If less time/energy needs to be spent building each model and all else stays equal, we've drastically overestimated capex required for AI, with reduced ROI on investments
Appoint yourself fed chair, you won’t
Trump piles pressure on Fed Chair Powell to cut rates
“I think I know interest rates much better than they do, & I know them certainly much better than the one who’s primarily in charge of making that decision. If I disagree, I will let it be known.”
www.ft.com/content/8b80...
“I think I know interest rates much better than they do, & I know them certainly much better than the one who’s primarily in charge of making that decision. If I disagree, I will let it be known.”
www.ft.com/content/8b80...
Donald Trump piles pressure on Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell to cut interest rates
US central bank widely expected to hold borrowing costs steady at meeting next week
www.ft.com
January 24, 2025 at 1:30 AM
Appoint yourself fed chair, you won’t
Logged back into BlueSky after a while and my feed is clogged with burrito taxi discourse. Time for another hiatus?
January 22, 2025 at 2:34 PM
Logged back into BlueSky after a while and my feed is clogged with burrito taxi discourse. Time for another hiatus?
Obviously the political environment is upside down, but can anyone reasonably explain why there is so much UHC shooter worship on Reddit?
December 9, 2024 at 8:20 PM
Obviously the political environment is upside down, but can anyone reasonably explain why there is so much UHC shooter worship on Reddit?
+1 in @noahpinion.blogsky.venki.dev's column on why a US-China conflict would go sideways for the US. Low-level manufacturing capability is not nearly the level it has to be
Bloomberg reports Chinese limitations on drone component exports are starting to take a toll on Ukraine's military capabilities.
December 9, 2024 at 6:08 PM
+1 in @noahpinion.blogsky.venki.dev's column on why a US-China conflict would go sideways for the US. Low-level manufacturing capability is not nearly the level it has to be
There should be a BlueSky hosted server for fin community
December 9, 2024 at 5:49 PM
There should be a BlueSky hosted server for fin community
Finally had the chance to listen to this Scott Bessent interview – in conjunction with other info in the past few weeks, think Trump's economic policies are his most reasonable positions (sans blanket Tariffs). Reasonable deregulation and deficit reduction could produce long-term wins
December 4, 2024 at 11:16 PM
Finally had the chance to listen to this Scott Bessent interview – in conjunction with other info in the past few weeks, think Trump's economic policies are his most reasonable positions (sans blanket Tariffs). Reasonable deregulation and deficit reduction could produce long-term wins
Reposted by Fed guy
lmfaooooooo
*POWELL: STATE OF FINANCIAL LITERACY IN CONGRESS IS MIXED
*POWELL: STATE OF FINANCIAL LITERACY IN CONGRESS IS MIXED
December 4, 2024 at 7:15 PM
lmfaooooooo
*POWELL: STATE OF FINANCIAL LITERACY IN CONGRESS IS MIXED
*POWELL: STATE OF FINANCIAL LITERACY IN CONGRESS IS MIXED
Maybe after the next 4 years Dems will no longer be afraid of austerity
December 3, 2024 at 3:26 AM
Maybe after the next 4 years Dems will no longer be afraid of austerity
Damn we’re so cooked
December 2, 2024 at 11:27 PM
Damn we’re so cooked
Ngl one of the things I like most about this platform is users generally have more respect for norms and values. E.g., people here agree that the video below is a dirty hit, while on the other platform some dumb right-wing grifters would be complaining about how players are soft or DEI or whatever
A brutal hit on Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence, resulting in the ejection of Texans LB Aziz Al-Shaair.
December 1, 2024 at 7:34 PM
Ngl one of the things I like most about this platform is users generally have more respect for norms and values. E.g., people here agree that the video below is a dirty hit, while on the other platform some dumb right-wing grifters would be complaining about how players are soft or DEI or whatever
Reposted by Fed guy
Biden sold it as a landmark climate change law, but repealing the IRA could run into hurdles from Republicans because it was also an important piece of legislation for energy security
“There are too many things in there that are too important to too many constituencies” www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
“There are too many things in there that are too important to too many constituencies” www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
Trump Vowed to Kill Biden’s Climate Law. Republicans Say Not So Fast.
Billions of dollars and tens of thousands of jobs are at stake in red states.
www.wsj.com
December 1, 2024 at 7:25 PM
Biden sold it as a landmark climate change law, but repealing the IRA could run into hurdles from Republicans because it was also an important piece of legislation for energy security
“There are too many things in there that are too important to too many constituencies” www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
“There are too many things in there that are too important to too many constituencies” www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
Instead of ridiculing stores who do this, we should address the underlying issues that motivate this behavior from stores
Oh look! It’s a gallery of things I must now order online because it takes 20 minutes to find the Keeper of the Deodorant Key
I get the need to safeguard from shoplifting but this CVS setup is insane.
December 1, 2024 at 7:26 PM
Instead of ridiculing stores who do this, we should address the underlying issues that motivate this behavior from stores
This is my fear of behavior that Bluesky perpetuates
Libs should break out of habit of appealing to politically active base
Libs should break out of habit of appealing to politically active base
“Leaving X because you don’t like Elon is the kind of purity politics that landed Democrats in this mess to begin with.”
Democrats Face an Existential Crisis on X
Conversations with a dozen insiders point to a party that is unsure about whether to leave or engage with the increasingly MAGA platform.
www.politico.com
December 1, 2024 at 6:33 PM
This is my fear of behavior that Bluesky perpetuates
Libs should break out of habit of appealing to politically active base
Libs should break out of habit of appealing to politically active base