Jeremy Cliffe
@jeremycliffe.bsky.social
Editorial Director and Senior Policy Fellow, European Council on Foreign Relations (@ecfr.eu)
https://ecfr.eu/profile/jeremy-cliffe/
https://ecfr.eu/profile/jeremy-cliffe/
Reposted by Jeremy Cliffe
"Research released this month by economists at the Bank of England, the Bundesbank, King’s College London and the universities of Stanford and Nottingham underscored the economic hit from leaving the EU. Brexit had reduced UK GDP by 6-8%"
on.ft.com/4p1NoHv
on.ft.com/4p1NoHv
Rachel Reeves signals she will break manifesto pledge with Budget tax rises
Chancellor hopes to win support from Labour MPs by lifting two-child benefit cap
on.ft.com
November 11, 2025 at 7:08 AM
"Research released this month by economists at the Bank of England, the Bundesbank, King’s College London and the universities of Stanford and Nottingham underscored the economic hit from leaving the EU. Brexit had reduced UK GDP by 6-8%"
on.ft.com/4p1NoHv
on.ft.com/4p1NoHv
Reposted by Jeremy Cliffe
Lethargy has become Europe’s strategic flaw, writes Nicu Popescu @ecfreuropeansec.bsky.social
https://bit.ly/4p6XIhI
https://bit.ly/4p6XIhI
From climate to defence, inertia could be the EU’s undoing
Europe’s strategic reports are filled with urgent calls for speed and agility. But amid fierce global competition, Europe is still lecturing while other major players deliver results…
bit.ly
November 10, 2025 at 4:13 PM
Lethargy has become Europe’s strategic flaw, writes Nicu Popescu @ecfreuropeansec.bsky.social
https://bit.ly/4p6XIhI
https://bit.ly/4p6XIhI
Spain is thriving now because 1898, and then 1975, left it as the big Western state with the fewest illusions about its place in the world. That's why, today, it's the European player with the most globally open and realistic foreign policy.
From the Spanish point of view, this is very particular. Spain is not immune to the reactionary wave, but it’s interesting how the 2008 crisis is shaking the west much like the disaster of 1898 did to Spain:
The Anglo consensus of the first half of 2010s was that where continental Europeans were endemically subject to crises and demagoguery, "we" were distinctly were more enlightened. Cameron's Britain. Obama's America. Ponderous essays about Magna Carta and the "golden thread".
How wrong it all was.
How wrong it all was.
November 10, 2025 at 6:56 PM
Spain is thriving now because 1898, and then 1975, left it as the big Western state with the fewest illusions about its place in the world. That's why, today, it's the European player with the most globally open and realistic foreign policy.
Reposted by Jeremy Cliffe
Ah, the “teething problems of young democracies” narrative. How well I remember it from PiS’s first term…
The Anglo consensus of the first half of 2010s was that where continental Europeans were endemically subject to crises and demagoguery, "we" were distinctly were more enlightened. Cameron's Britain. Obama's America. Ponderous essays about Magna Carta and the "golden thread".
How wrong it all was.
How wrong it all was.
I fear we are seeing in the UK what has become abundantly clear in the US: for all their power and privilege, elites and institutions are absolute cowards in the face of right-wing authoritarianism. Weak, weak, weak, as Tony Blair once said
November 10, 2025 at 6:06 PM
Ah, the “teething problems of young democracies” narrative. How well I remember it from PiS’s first term…
The Anglo consensus of the first half of 2010s was that where continental Europeans were endemically subject to crises and demagoguery, "we" were distinctly were more enlightened. Cameron's Britain. Obama's America. Ponderous essays about Magna Carta and the "golden thread".
How wrong it all was.
How wrong it all was.
I fear we are seeing in the UK what has become abundantly clear in the US: for all their power and privilege, elites and institutions are absolute cowards in the face of right-wing authoritarianism. Weak, weak, weak, as Tony Blair once said
November 10, 2025 at 5:28 PM
The Anglo consensus of the first half of 2010s was that where continental Europeans were endemically subject to crises and demagoguery, "we" were distinctly were more enlightened. Cameron's Britain. Obama's America. Ponderous essays about Magna Carta and the "golden thread".
How wrong it all was.
How wrong it all was.
Reposted by Jeremy Cliffe
"Why American-style polarisation is spreading across the West"
Two words: algorithms and incentives. Mostly incentives. Until we modify or eliminate incentives, all we can do is watch as the fabric of society is pulled apart, strand by strand. www.ft.com/content/5060...
Two words: algorithms and incentives. Mostly incentives. Until we modify or eliminate incentives, all we can do is watch as the fabric of society is pulled apart, strand by strand. www.ft.com/content/5060...
November 7, 2025 at 2:57 PM
"Why American-style polarisation is spreading across the West"
Two words: algorithms and incentives. Mostly incentives. Until we modify or eliminate incentives, all we can do is watch as the fabric of society is pulled apart, strand by strand. www.ft.com/content/5060...
Two words: algorithms and incentives. Mostly incentives. Until we modify or eliminate incentives, all we can do is watch as the fabric of society is pulled apart, strand by strand. www.ft.com/content/5060...
Reposted by Jeremy Cliffe
"Clearly echoing Erwin Rommel’s Nazi force, the Africa Corps is the Kremlin’s new expeditionary formation in Africa. ...Like Wagner before it, it is still laden with neo-Nazi and white supremacist symbology."
on Russian neo-colonialism in Africa:
ecfr.eu/publication/...
on Russian neo-colonialism in Africa:
ecfr.eu/publication/...
The bear and the bot farm: Countering Russian hybrid warfare in Africa
Russia has many quiet enemies in Africa. Working together, like-minded Africans and Europeans can roll back its troublesome influence.
ecfr.eu
November 7, 2025 at 3:07 PM
"Clearly echoing Erwin Rommel’s Nazi force, the Africa Corps is the Kremlin’s new expeditionary formation in Africa. ...Like Wagner before it, it is still laden with neo-Nazi and white supremacist symbology."
on Russian neo-colonialism in Africa:
ecfr.eu/publication/...
on Russian neo-colonialism in Africa:
ecfr.eu/publication/...
Reposted by Jeremy Cliffe
A very interesting new @ecfr.eu report about countering Russian hybrid warfare in Africa by @willbrownecfr.bsky.social. I am glad to see that the report really underlines one of my recent pet peeves: The need to go on the offensive on cyber.+
The bear and the bot farm: Countering Russian hybrid warfare in Africa
Russia has many quiet enemies in Africa. Working together, like-minded Africans and Europeans can roll back its troublesome influence.
ecfr.eu
November 7, 2025 at 12:54 PM
A very interesting new @ecfr.eu report about countering Russian hybrid warfare in Africa by @willbrownecfr.bsky.social. I am glad to see that the report really underlines one of my recent pet peeves: The need to go on the offensive on cyber.+
Reposted by Jeremy Cliffe
AI could end scarcity, end humanity - or boost trend growth by 0.2 percentage points
November 7, 2025 at 1:24 PM
AI could end scarcity, end humanity - or boost trend growth by 0.2 percentage points
Reposted by Jeremy Cliffe
The EU has a strategic opening to align with US sanctions on Rosneft and LUKoil. It must compel divestment from European assets and close loopholes that enable Moscow to circumvent restrictions, write @vtcherneva.bsky.social and Szymon Kardaś @ecfrpower.bsky.social
https://bit.ly/4nGBRwf
https://bit.ly/4nGBRwf
Energy reckoning: How Europe can use US sanctions to cut Moscow’s oil ties
The EU has a strategic opening to align with US sanctions on Rosneft and LUKoil. It must compel divestment from European assets and close loopholes that enable Moscow to circumvent restrictions…
bit.ly
November 7, 2025 at 11:21 AM
The EU has a strategic opening to align with US sanctions on Rosneft and LUKoil. It must compel divestment from European assets and close loopholes that enable Moscow to circumvent restrictions, write @vtcherneva.bsky.social and Szymon Kardaś @ecfrpower.bsky.social
https://bit.ly/4nGBRwf
https://bit.ly/4nGBRwf
Reposted by Jeremy Cliffe
Donald Trump has already met Japan’s new prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, in Tokyo. As the two move closer on defence and economic security, the EU must reflect on the credibility of its own alliance, writes Elli-Katharina Pohlkamp @ecfrpower.bsky.social
https://bit.ly/3XcrJk1
https://bit.ly/3XcrJk1
Pacific drift: Why Europe needs a Japan strategy for the Takaichi-Trump era
Donald Trump has already met Japan’s new prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, in Tokyo. As the two move closer on defence and economic security, the EU must reflect on the credibility of its own alliance…
bit.ly
November 7, 2025 at 10:57 AM
Donald Trump has already met Japan’s new prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, in Tokyo. As the two move closer on defence and economic security, the EU must reflect on the credibility of its own alliance, writes Elli-Katharina Pohlkamp @ecfrpower.bsky.social
https://bit.ly/3XcrJk1
https://bit.ly/3XcrJk1
Reposted by Jeremy Cliffe
✍️ If Europe wants credibility when invoking international law in Ukraine, Gaza or elsewhere, it cannot ignore the atrocities happening in Sudan. Though the options are limited, there are ways to hold the responsible accountable @cinziabianco.bsky.social
@willbrownecfr.bsky.social buff.ly/B7uIpW9
@willbrownecfr.bsky.social buff.ly/B7uIpW9
Sudan: A war Europe cannot stop, but cannot ignore | ECFR
El-Fasher in North Darfur is now the epicentre of the world’s greatest humanitarian catastrophe. Europe’s options are limited, but there are still ways to hold
ecfr.eu
November 3, 2025 at 11:32 AM
✍️ If Europe wants credibility when invoking international law in Ukraine, Gaza or elsewhere, it cannot ignore the atrocities happening in Sudan. Though the options are limited, there are ways to hold the responsible accountable @cinziabianco.bsky.social
@willbrownecfr.bsky.social buff.ly/B7uIpW9
@willbrownecfr.bsky.social buff.ly/B7uIpW9
It’s says much about both the woes of the American republic and the thrilling dynamism of its politics that Zohran Mamdani can generate so much excitement running on what is - whisper it softly - basically a conventional New Deal / social democrat platform.
November 4, 2025 at 9:01 PM
It’s says much about both the woes of the American republic and the thrilling dynamism of its politics that Zohran Mamdani can generate so much excitement running on what is - whisper it softly - basically a conventional New Deal / social democrat platform.
Reposted by Jeremy Cliffe
"ANO-led coalition parties label the Green Deal “unsustainable” and call for an overhaul of industrial emission allowances to improve predictability. Prague will not implement the new ETS 2 scheme for buildings and road transport, citing social impacts..." www.euractiv.com/news/incomin...
Incoming Czech government signals reversal on EU climate and migration policies | Euractiv
Led by Andrej Babiš, the new Czech coalition is aligning closer with Hungary and Slovakia, pledging constitutional protection for the crown, state control of energy, and a hardline stance on asylum
www.euractiv.com
November 3, 2025 at 6:42 AM
"ANO-led coalition parties label the Green Deal “unsustainable” and call for an overhaul of industrial emission allowances to improve predictability. Prague will not implement the new ETS 2 scheme for buildings and road transport, citing social impacts..." www.euractiv.com/news/incomin...
Reposted by Jeremy Cliffe
What did Pasolini know? Fifty years after his brutal murder, the director’s vision of fascism is more urgent than ever
What did Pasolini know? Fifty years after his brutal murder, the director’s vision of fascism is more urgent than ever
With mystery still surrounding Pier Paolo Pasolini’s death, the poet and film-maker’s warnings of corruption and rising totalitarianism offer a chilling message for our times
www.theguardian.com
November 1, 2025 at 10:04 AM
What did Pasolini know? Fifty years after his brutal murder, the director’s vision of fascism is more urgent than ever
Thanks to @nacho-fariza.bsky.social @elpais.com for this interview on the Dutch election result. In short, the three defining features of European politics in 2020s - anti-incumbency, fragmentation, volatility - can work for *and against* the radical right.
elpais.com/internaciona...
elpais.com/internaciona...
La extrema derecha mantiene uno de cada tres gobiernos europeos pese al varapalo de Wilders en los Países Bajos
Los ultras gobiernan de manera estable en Italia, y lideran los sondeos en Alemania, Francia y el Reino Unido
elpais.com
November 2, 2025 at 7:50 AM
Thanks to @nacho-fariza.bsky.social @elpais.com for this interview on the Dutch election result. In short, the three defining features of European politics in 2020s - anti-incumbency, fragmentation, volatility - can work for *and against* the radical right.
elpais.com/internaciona...
elpais.com/internaciona...
Reposted by Jeremy Cliffe
A horrific mass murder is unfolding in Sudan, where no one can see it. The RSF are murdering civilians in El Fasher, having finally defeated the Sudanese army forces holding out in the city. The BBC has managed to speak to some who escaped
www.youtube.com/watch?v=i7fC...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=i7fC...
Sudanese survivors of el-Fasher siege tell the BBC about RSF brutality | BBC News
YouTube video by BBC News
www.youtube.com
November 1, 2025 at 7:14 AM
A horrific mass murder is unfolding in Sudan, where no one can see it. The RSF are murdering civilians in El Fasher, having finally defeated the Sudanese army forces holding out in the city. The BBC has managed to speak to some who escaped
www.youtube.com/watch?v=i7fC...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=i7fC...
Reposted by Jeremy Cliffe
Glad to see this out!
In my latest policy brief with @ecfr.eu, I argue that Europe needs a more coherent, horizontal and context-sensitive approach in its green energy relations with Tunisia to create mutual benefits and people-centered cooperation.
#EU #Tunisia #COP30 #energytransition
In my latest policy brief with @ecfr.eu, I argue that Europe needs a more coherent, horizontal and context-sensitive approach in its green energy relations with Tunisia to create mutual benefits and people-centered cooperation.
#EU #Tunisia #COP30 #energytransition
Cooperation on clean energy will be an important facet of the EU’s “Pact for the Mediterranean”, a new strategic initiative to connect the bloc with its neighbours in North Africa and beyond, writes @philippwa.bsky.social @ecfrmena.bsky.social
https://bit.ly/4oLCCoK
https://bit.ly/4oLCCoK
Power sharing: The politics of European-Tunisian energy cooperation
The ethos of the EU’s “Pact for the Mediterranean” could help revitalise cooperation on clean energy with Tunisia—but only if Europeans learn how to better factor in the country’s politics…
bit.ly
October 31, 2025 at 11:01 AM
Glad to see this out!
In my latest policy brief with @ecfr.eu, I argue that Europe needs a more coherent, horizontal and context-sensitive approach in its green energy relations with Tunisia to create mutual benefits and people-centered cooperation.
#EU #Tunisia #COP30 #energytransition
In my latest policy brief with @ecfr.eu, I argue that Europe needs a more coherent, horizontal and context-sensitive approach in its green energy relations with Tunisia to create mutual benefits and people-centered cooperation.
#EU #Tunisia #COP30 #energytransition
Reposted by Jeremy Cliffe
Look what you made us do: How to realise a European-led NATO: ecfr.eu/article/look...
Look what you made us do: How to realise a European-led NATO
America’s gradual retreat from European security under the current Trump administration is reshaping NATO’s centre of gravity. To keep the alliance credible and united, Europeans not only need to…
ecfr.eu
October 31, 2025 at 7:32 AM
Look what you made us do: How to realise a European-led NATO: ecfr.eu/article/look...
Reposted by Jeremy Cliffe
"They (The Europeans) should propose a Europeanisation of #NATO’s command structure, appointing European four-star officers to lead the NATO air, land and maritime commands, with US three-stars serving as their deputies to ensure continued integration."
The most effective deterrent to Russian aggression? According to Pete Hegseth: "a lethal, capable and European-led NATO."
My co-authors—Leoni Habedank and Katrine Westgaard—and I spell out what it takes to make NATO, its structures and its forces mostly European: ecfr.eu/article/look... @ecfr.eu
My co-authors—Leoni Habedank and Katrine Westgaard—and I spell out what it takes to make NATO, its structures and its forces mostly European: ecfr.eu/article/look... @ecfr.eu
Look what you made us do: How to realise a European-led NATO
America’s gradual retreat from European security under the current Trump administration is reshaping NATO’s centre of gravity. To keep the alliance credible and united, Europeans not only need to…
ecfr.eu
October 30, 2025 at 8:58 PM
"They (The Europeans) should propose a Europeanisation of #NATO’s command structure, appointing European four-star officers to lead the NATO air, land and maritime commands, with US three-stars serving as their deputies to ensure continued integration."
Reposted by Jeremy Cliffe
The most effective deterrent to Russian aggression? According to Pete Hegseth: "a lethal, capable and European-led NATO."
My co-authors—Leoni Habedank and Katrine Westgaard—and I spell out what it takes to make NATO, its structures and its forces mostly European: ecfr.eu/article/look... @ecfr.eu
My co-authors—Leoni Habedank and Katrine Westgaard—and I spell out what it takes to make NATO, its structures and its forces mostly European: ecfr.eu/article/look... @ecfr.eu
Look what you made us do: How to realise a European-led NATO
America’s gradual retreat from European security under the current Trump administration is reshaping NATO’s centre of gravity. To keep the alliance credible and united, Europeans not only need to…
ecfr.eu
October 30, 2025 at 5:02 PM
The most effective deterrent to Russian aggression? According to Pete Hegseth: "a lethal, capable and European-led NATO."
My co-authors—Leoni Habedank and Katrine Westgaard—and I spell out what it takes to make NATO, its structures and its forces mostly European: ecfr.eu/article/look... @ecfr.eu
My co-authors—Leoni Habedank and Katrine Westgaard—and I spell out what it takes to make NATO, its structures and its forces mostly European: ecfr.eu/article/look... @ecfr.eu
Reposted by Jeremy Cliffe
In Sudan, Rapid Support Forces captured the city of el-Fasher, resulting in fears of mass killings. To support long-term stability in Sudan, European policymakers can benefit from a closer understanding of Gulf interests, writes Jonas Horner @ecfrafrica.bsky.social
https://bit.ly/3WNGppP
https://bit.ly/3WNGppP
The falcons and the secretary bird: Arab Gulf states in Sudan’s war
The Arab Gulf states’ pursuits in Sudan keep fuelling violence. But their wealth and influence mean any lasting peace will necessarily hinge on their cooperation.
bit.ly
October 29, 2025 at 9:24 AM
In Sudan, Rapid Support Forces captured the city of el-Fasher, resulting in fears of mass killings. To support long-term stability in Sudan, European policymakers can benefit from a closer understanding of Gulf interests, writes Jonas Horner @ecfrafrica.bsky.social
https://bit.ly/3WNGppP
https://bit.ly/3WNGppP
Dutch result evinces wider European trend: consolidation of nationalist right's rise accompanied by reconfiguration (or: outright power struggle) within its ranks. FvD & JA21 rising at cost of PVV, FdI eclipsing Lega, factional contests within RN, Konfederacja challenge to PiS...
Netherlands, 99.7% counted:
National parliament election
PVV-PfE: 16.7% (-6.8)
D66-RE: 16.7% (+10.4)
VVD-RE: 14.1% (-1.1)
GL/PvdA-G/EFA|S&D: 12.5% (-3.3)
CDA-EPP: 11.7% (+8.4)
JA21~ECR: 5.9% (+5.2)
FvD-ESN: 4.5% (+2.3)
BBB-EPP: 2.7% (-2.0)
...
+/- vs. Last election
➤ europeelects.eu/netherlands
National parliament election
PVV-PfE: 16.7% (-6.8)
D66-RE: 16.7% (+10.4)
VVD-RE: 14.1% (-1.1)
GL/PvdA-G/EFA|S&D: 12.5% (-3.3)
CDA-EPP: 11.7% (+8.4)
JA21~ECR: 5.9% (+5.2)
FvD-ESN: 4.5% (+2.3)
BBB-EPP: 2.7% (-2.0)
...
+/- vs. Last election
➤ europeelects.eu/netherlands
October 30, 2025 at 10:15 AM
Dutch result evinces wider European trend: consolidation of nationalist right's rise accompanied by reconfiguration (or: outright power struggle) within its ranks. FvD & JA21 rising at cost of PVV, FdI eclipsing Lega, factional contests within RN, Konfederacja challenge to PiS...
Reposted by Jeremy Cliffe
With the official prognosis giving one additional seat to PVV and one to FvD compared to the ext poll, the narrative should really not be that the Netherlands/Jetten has beaten the radical right. The far right bloc remains remarkably stable.
October 30, 2025 at 7:01 AM
With the official prognosis giving one additional seat to PVV and one to FvD compared to the ext poll, the narrative should really not be that the Netherlands/Jetten has beaten the radical right. The far right bloc remains remarkably stable.