ECFR MENA
@ecfrmena.bsky.social
📰 “In this Trumpian world, do not expect every agreement to be written down on paper. There could be a series of not verifiable understandings, including a non-aggression pact between Iran and the US and its allies” comments Ellie Geranmayeh for @theguardian.com www.theguardian.com/world/2026/f...
The patience and the poker face: Iran’s wily diplomat set to face the US in nuclear talks
Abbas Araghchi is steeped in more than a decade of nuclear dealmaking with a book on the art of negotiations
buff.ly
February 17, 2026 at 10:23 AM
📰 “In this Trumpian world, do not expect every agreement to be written down on paper. There could be a series of not verifiable understandings, including a non-aggression pact between Iran and the US and its allies” comments Ellie Geranmayeh for @theguardian.com www.theguardian.com/world/2026/f...
📰 With US warships on Iran's shores & threat of war looming, the Islamic Republic is marking its 47th year as one of "resistance and defiance to US hegemony," selling this as a "holy war" to their ideological base, comments Ellie Geranmayeh for @nytimes.com www.nytimes.com/2026/02/11/w...
Iran Commemorates Revolution, With U.S. Warships Lurking Off the Coast
The authoritarian clerical regime in Tehran came to power in 1979. Today, it presides over a country that is deeply polarized and under threat of an American attack.
buff.ly
February 12, 2026 at 10:10 AM
📰 With US warships on Iran's shores & threat of war looming, the Islamic Republic is marking its 47th year as one of "resistance and defiance to US hegemony," selling this as a "holy war" to their ideological base, comments Ellie Geranmayeh for @nytimes.com www.nytimes.com/2026/02/11/w...
🧵 US-Iran talks aim to avert escalation, but the risk of another US strike persists. Given Europe's defence of the UN Charter in other conflicts, it should acknowledge that a US attack on Iran now would likely breach international law @anthonydworkin.bsky.social 👇 buff.ly/uKl7jp6
February 11, 2026 at 3:00 PM
🧵 US-Iran talks aim to avert escalation, but the risk of another US strike persists. Given Europe's defence of the UN Charter in other conflicts, it should acknowledge that a US attack on Iran now would likely breach international law @anthonydworkin.bsky.social 👇 buff.ly/uKl7jp6
🧵 With Trump and Netanyahu meeting today, the risk of regional escalation remains real but not predetermined. The key variable is whether external actors can shape the strategic environment around Trump’s decision-making, argues @boppenheim.bsky.social👇 ecfr.eu/article/sell...
Selling peace to Trump: How Europe can prevent the next Middle East war – European Council on Foreign Relations
Israel is agitating for US strikes against Iran, while preparing for renewed war in Lebanon. Europeans should work to contain Trump and Netanyahu to prevent ren
ecfr.eu
February 11, 2026 at 12:00 PM
🧵 With Trump and Netanyahu meeting today, the risk of regional escalation remains real but not predetermined. The key variable is whether external actors can shape the strategic environment around Trump’s decision-making, argues @boppenheim.bsky.social👇 ecfr.eu/article/sell...
🎙️ In the latest @ecfr.eu WOMENP podcast episode, Ellie Geranmayeh speak to @asliaydintasbas.bsky.social, Dina Esfandiary & Yasmine Farouk to unpack how Iran's neighbours view the domestic turmoil following brutal crackdowns and the increasing risk of US military strikes 👇 buff.ly/OOMHKxm
February 10, 2026 at 1:30 PM
🎙️ In the latest @ecfr.eu WOMENP podcast episode, Ellie Geranmayeh speak to @asliaydintasbas.bsky.social, Dina Esfandiary & Yasmine Farouk to unpack how Iran's neighbours view the domestic turmoil following brutal crackdowns and the increasing risk of US military strikes 👇 buff.ly/OOMHKxm
📰 “Human rights abuses should be a core criterion for deciding what to buy and what to invest in. But in the current global attitude, that approach has been increasingly undermined” @hlovatt.bsky.social for @aljazeera.com on EU trade with Israeli settlements 👇 www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/...
World’s biggest shipping company facilitates trade from Israeli settlements
Commercial documents shed light on hundreds of shipments from illegal Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank.
buff.ly
February 10, 2026 at 9:35 AM
📰 “Human rights abuses should be a core criterion for deciding what to buy and what to invest in. But in the current global attitude, that approach has been increasingly undermined” @hlovatt.bsky.social for @aljazeera.com on EU trade with Israeli settlements 👇 www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/...
✍️ Israel is agitating for US strikes against Iran, while preparing for renewed war in Lebanon. Europeans should work to contain Trump & Netanyahu to prevent renewed offensives in both arenas, while supporting Lebanon’s fragile governance. @boppenheim.bsky.social ecfr.eu/article/sell...
Selling peace to Trump: How Europe can prevent the next Middle East war – European Council on Foreign Relations
Israel is agitating for US strikes against Iran, while preparing for renewed war in Lebanon. Europeans should work to contain Trump and Netanyahu to prevent ren
buff.ly
February 9, 2026 at 11:34 AM
✍️ Israel is agitating for US strikes against Iran, while preparing for renewed war in Lebanon. Europeans should work to contain Trump & Netanyahu to prevent renewed offensives in both arenas, while supporting Lebanon’s fragile governance. @boppenheim.bsky.social ecfr.eu/article/sell...
🎙️ For @bloomberg.com, Ellie Geranmayeh comments on US-Iranian talks in Oman 👇 www.youtube.com/watch?v=-tz2...
Tech Rout Deepens, Double Central Bank Decision Day | The Pulse 2/5/2026
The global tech selloff deepened overnight, as an initial rout in software stocks extended to chipmakers. Tepid earnings from Arm, Qualcomm and Alphabet did little to improve sentiment. Hundreds of…
buff.ly
February 9, 2026 at 8:39 AM
🎙️ For @bloomberg.com, Ellie Geranmayeh comments on US-Iranian talks in Oman 👇 www.youtube.com/watch?v=-tz2...
📑 NEW @ecfr.eu commentary by @boppenheim.bsky.social: Europeans should work to contain Trump & Netanyahu to prevent renewed offensives in Iran & Lebanon , while supporting Lebanon’s fragile governance Read the piece here 👇 ecfr.eu/article/sell...
Selling peace to Trump: How Europe can prevent the next Middle East war – European Council on Foreign Relations
Israel is agitating for US strikes against Iran, while preparing for renewed war in Lebanon. Europeans should work to contain Trump and Netanyahu to prevent ren
ecfr.eu
February 6, 2026 at 8:21 AM
📑 NEW @ecfr.eu commentary by @boppenheim.bsky.social: Europeans should work to contain Trump & Netanyahu to prevent renewed offensives in Iran & Lebanon , while supporting Lebanon’s fragile governance Read the piece here 👇 ecfr.eu/article/sell...
📰"The fact that Morocco is collaborating with Israel is perceived as a provocation, for both ideological and military reasons" comments @anthonydworkin.bsky.social in
@lemonde.fr. "This could give them a significant advantage." www.lemonde.fr/afrique/arti...
@lemonde.fr. "This could give them a significant advantage." www.lemonde.fr/afrique/arti...
« Aucun des deux pays ne souhaite la guerre, mais ils semblent se préparer au pire » : entre l’Algérie et le Maroc, une inquiétante course aux armements
ANALYSE. Les budgets de défense cumulés des deux pays dépassent pour la première fois les 60 milliards d’euros, alors que le statu quo demeure précaire sur la question de la souveraineté du Sahara occ...
www.lemonde.fr
February 5, 2026 at 8:41 AM
📰"The fact that Morocco is collaborating with Israel is perceived as a provocation, for both ideological and military reasons" comments @anthonydworkin.bsky.social in
@lemonde.fr. "This could give them a significant advantage." www.lemonde.fr/afrique/arti...
@lemonde.fr. "This could give them a significant advantage." www.lemonde.fr/afrique/arti...
✍️ "After years of simmering competition between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, their clash is having an impact beyond Yemen and into the wider Red Sea region. This is reshuffling regional alliances and threatening to further destabilise Red Sea geopolitics." @CamilleLons ecfr.eu/article/powe...
Power struggle: What the Saudi-UAE rivalry means for the Red Sea—and Europe – European Council on Foreign Relations
The Saudi-UAE clash is reshaping dynamics across Yemen and the Horn of Africa. Europe needs to pay attention as new alignments crystallise against what is incre
buff.ly
February 2, 2026 at 8:30 AM
✍️ "After years of simmering competition between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, their clash is having an impact beyond Yemen and into the wider Red Sea region. This is reshuffling regional alliances and threatening to further destabilise Red Sea geopolitics." @CamilleLons ecfr.eu/article/powe...
📃 NEW commentary by @camillelons.bsky.social: The Saudi-UAE clash is reshaping dynamics across Yemen and the Horn of Africa. Europe needs to pay attention as new alignments crystallise against what is increasingly framed as a UAE-Israel-Ethiopia axis 👇 ecfr.eu/article/powe...
Power struggle: What the Saudi-UAE rivalry means for the Red Sea—and Europe – European Council on Foreign Relations
The Saudi-UAE clash is reshaping dynamics across Yemen and the Horn of Africa. Europe needs to pay attention as new alignments crystallise against what is incre
buff.ly
January 30, 2026 at 10:54 AM
📃 NEW commentary by @camillelons.bsky.social: The Saudi-UAE clash is reshaping dynamics across Yemen and the Horn of Africa. Europe needs to pay attention as new alignments crystallise against what is increasingly framed as a UAE-Israel-Ethiopia axis 👇 ecfr.eu/article/powe...
📰 “If America launches significant attacks, possibly with a regime change endgame, Tehran is likely to directly increase the cost to Trump in an election year by targeting American soldiers stationed across the Middle East” Ellie Geranmayeh for @aljazeera.com www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/1/...
How does US military build-up off Iran compare to the June 2025 strikes?
And could a sudden deployment of major US naval and air force assets indicate a strike on Iran is imminent?
buff.ly
January 29, 2026 at 1:21 PM
📰 “If America launches significant attacks, possibly with a regime change endgame, Tehran is likely to directly increase the cost to Trump in an election year by targeting American soldiers stationed across the Middle East” Ellie Geranmayeh for @aljazeera.com www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/1/...
✍️ "The past two decades of US military intervention in similar contexts suggests more bloodshed and instability, while also hollowing out the economy and sidelining moderate forces pushing for democratic change", Ellie Geranmayeh on US escalation in Iran ecfr.eu/article/trap...
Traps and limits: Why Trump bombing Iran won’t deliver what he wants – European Council on Foreign Relations
The US is locked in a cat-and-mouse game of escalation with Iran. Europeans should work with partners in the Middle East to restrain Trump’s military attacks, p
buff.ly
January 29, 2026 at 9:22 AM
✍️ "The past two decades of US military intervention in similar contexts suggests more bloodshed and instability, while also hollowing out the economy and sidelining moderate forces pushing for democratic change", Ellie Geranmayeh on US escalation in Iran ecfr.eu/article/trap...
📰 @cinziabianco.bsky.social comments on the low likelihood of a severe rupture between Abu Dhabi and Riyadh, despite Saudi Arabia's new security deals, for @deutschewelle.dw.com www.dw.com/en/saudi-def...
Saudi defense deals could change Middle East security
Riyadh is in talks with Somalia, Egypt and Turkey about two new defense pacts. What impact will they have if they go ahead?
buff.ly
January 28, 2026 at 12:30 PM
📰 @cinziabianco.bsky.social comments on the low likelihood of a severe rupture between Abu Dhabi and Riyadh, despite Saudi Arabia's new security deals, for @deutschewelle.dw.com www.dw.com/en/saudi-def...
📑 NEW @ecfr.eu commentary by Ellie Geranmayeh: The US is locked in a cat-and-mouse game of escalation with Iran. Europeans should work with partners in the Middle East to press Tehran & Trump towards a quick de-escalation off-ramp. Read the piece here 👇 ecfr.eu/article/trap...
Traps and limits: Why Trump bombing Iran won’t deliver what he wants – European Council on Foreign Relations
The US is locked in a cat-and-mouse game of escalation with Iran. Europeans should work with partners in the Middle East to restrain Trump’s military attacks, p
ecfr.eu
January 27, 2026 at 2:02 PM
📑 NEW @ecfr.eu commentary by Ellie Geranmayeh: The US is locked in a cat-and-mouse game of escalation with Iran. Europeans should work with partners in the Middle East to press Tehran & Trump towards a quick de-escalation off-ramp. Read the piece here 👇 ecfr.eu/article/trap...
✍️ "The mixture of private investment funds with American power and geopolitics, combined with likely opaque decision-making and financial expenditure is a recipe for kleptocratic oligarchy" writes @hlovatt.bsky.social about Trump's newly-formed Board of Peace 👇 ecfr.eu/article/welc...
Welcome to the jungle: Trump’s Board of Peace goes global – European Council on Foreign Relations
The US president’s Board of Peace has less to do with peace, in Gaza or elsewhere, and more to do with enforcing a new, transactional global order. Welcome to t
buff.ly
January 26, 2026 at 8:38 AM
✍️ "The mixture of private investment funds with American power and geopolitics, combined with likely opaque decision-making and financial expenditure is a recipe for kleptocratic oligarchy" writes @hlovatt.bsky.social about Trump's newly-formed Board of Peace 👇 ecfr.eu/article/welc...
✍️ The US president’s Board of Peace has less to do with peace, in Gaza or elsewhere, and more to do with enforcing a new, transactional global order. Welcome to the America-First Trumpian world. @hlovatt.bsky.social ecfr.eu/article/welc...
Welcome to the jungle: Trump’s Board of Peace goes global – European Council on Foreign Relations
The US president’s Board of Peace has less to do with peace, in Gaza or elsewhere, and more to do with enforcing a new, transactional global order. Welcome to t
buff.ly
January 23, 2026 at 2:38 PM
✍️ The US president’s Board of Peace has less to do with peace, in Gaza or elsewhere, and more to do with enforcing a new, transactional global order. Welcome to the America-First Trumpian world. @hlovatt.bsky.social ecfr.eu/article/welc...
Reposted by ECFR MENA
My longer read for @ecfr.eu on what Trump's Board of Peace means for Gaza, Europe's quest for strategic autonomy, and the future of the global order:
ecfr.eu/article/welc...
ecfr.eu/article/welc...
January 23, 2026 at 1:27 PM
My longer read for @ecfr.eu on what Trump's Board of Peace means for Gaza, Europe's quest for strategic autonomy, and the future of the global order:
ecfr.eu/article/welc...
ecfr.eu/article/welc...
Members of the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG), which will report to the Board of Peace via High Representative Nikolay Mladenov, were announced last week. For a full breakdown, visit @ecfr.eu's Mapping Palestinian Politics project 👇 ecfr.eu/special/mapp...
BoP Inc is a Trump vanity project that has nothing to do with Gaza. But Europeans should still engage with its subsidiary Gaza Executive Committee which is aligned with UNSCR 2803 and where there is strong European representation through Nikolay Mladenov, Tony Blair & Sigrid Kaag.
January 22, 2026 at 1:35 PM
Members of the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG), which will report to the Board of Peace via High Representative Nikolay Mladenov, were announced last week. For a full breakdown, visit @ecfr.eu's Mapping Palestinian Politics project 👇 ecfr.eu/special/mapp...
As Iran's regime uses a communications blackout to suppress nationwide protests & control information flows, French & UK governments can use their own satellite terminals to provide Iranians with independent internet access, write Ellie Geranmayeh & @giorgosverdi.bsky.social ecfr.eu/article/how-...
How Europe can help Iranians break the internet shutdown – European Council on Foreign Relations
Tehran has used a communications blackout to suppress nationwide protests and control information flows. French and UK governments can use their own satellite t
buff.ly
January 22, 2026 at 12:30 PM
As Iran's regime uses a communications blackout to suppress nationwide protests & control information flows, French & UK governments can use their own satellite terminals to provide Iranians with independent internet access, write Ellie Geranmayeh & @giorgosverdi.bsky.social ecfr.eu/article/how-...
✍️ A brief momentum for a Gulf front collapsed as strained Saudi-Emirati relations gave way to open rivalry, driven by mistrust and suspicions of parallel agendas. @cinziabianco.bsky.social for @ecfr.eu on the Saudi–UAE rupture and the European angle 👇 buff.ly/TUk8Evm
From partners to rivals: What the Saudi-UAE rupture means for Europeans – European Council on Foreign Relations
Saudi Arabia and the UAE are experiencing a fracture in their diplomatic relationship. Europeans need to understand the potential impact on their economic and p
buff.ly
January 22, 2026 at 9:01 AM
✍️ A brief momentum for a Gulf front collapsed as strained Saudi-Emirati relations gave way to open rivalry, driven by mistrust and suspicions of parallel agendas. @cinziabianco.bsky.social for @ecfr.eu on the Saudi–UAE rupture and the European angle 👇 buff.ly/TUk8Evm
🧵1/ Iran remains under a communication blackout following a brutal crackdown of protests. Europe can tangibly help Iranians on the ground by reconnecting them to the world and reducing future internet shut downs. See @ECFR.eu's policy alert from Ellie Geranmayeh & @giorgosverdi.bsky.social 👇
January 21, 2026 at 2:26 PM
🧵1/ Iran remains under a communication blackout following a brutal crackdown of protests. Europe can tangibly help Iranians on the ground by reconnecting them to the world and reducing future internet shut downs. See @ECFR.eu's policy alert from Ellie Geranmayeh & @giorgosverdi.bsky.social 👇
🎙️ @hlovatt.bsky.social speaks to ABC News about membership of Donald Trump's Board of Peace for Gaza, arguing that mixing states, geopolitics, and private investment funds is a recipe for corruption and international oligarchy
Governments uneasy over Trump's Gaza "Board of Peace" - ABC listen
The Kremlin says Russian President Vladimir Putin has been invited to join U-S President Donald Trump's 'Board of Peace' for Gaza. Moscow says it's studying the proposal and hoping to get further…
www.abc.net.au
January 21, 2026 at 11:43 AM
🎙️ @hlovatt.bsky.social speaks to ABC News about membership of Donald Trump's Board of Peace for Gaza, arguing that mixing states, geopolitics, and private investment funds is a recipe for corruption and international oligarchy
📰 “It’s hard not to read this as an attempt to establish a precedent in Gaza that could be used elsewhere ... saying that Trump is going to be calling the global shots here, and you either fall in line or you’re not part of the process,” @jbdacey.bsky.social for @wsj.com www.wsj.com/world/middle...
buff.ly
January 21, 2026 at 8:42 AM
📰 “It’s hard not to read this as an attempt to establish a precedent in Gaza that could be used elsewhere ... saying that Trump is going to be calling the global shots here, and you either fall in line or you’re not part of the process,” @jbdacey.bsky.social for @wsj.com www.wsj.com/world/middle...