Hugh Lovatt
@hlovatt.bsky.social
Senior Policy Fellow, European Council on Foreign Relations.
Middle East analysis and European foreign policy, with focus on Israel/Palestine and Western Sahara. Mountain runner. Usual caveats.
Middle East analysis and European foreign policy, with focus on Israel/Palestine and Western Sahara. Mountain runner. Usual caveats.
Beth Oppenheim @ecfr.eu:
Europeans should oppose renewed military intervention and press the case for diplomacy. Together with Arab states, they should play on Trump’s desire for deal-making to show him that more military action will not serve his agenda of regional peace.
ecfr.eu/article/sell...
Europeans should oppose renewed military intervention and press the case for diplomacy. Together with Arab states, they should play on Trump’s desire for deal-making to show him that more military action will not serve his agenda of regional peace.
ecfr.eu/article/sell...
Selling peace to Trump: How Europe can prevent the next Middle East war – European Council on Foreign Relations
Israel is agitating for US strikes against Iran, while preparing for renewed war in Lebanon. Europeans should work to contain Trump and Netanyahu to prevent ren
ecfr.eu
February 5, 2026 at 6:57 PM
Beth Oppenheim @ecfr.eu:
Europeans should oppose renewed military intervention and press the case for diplomacy. Together with Arab states, they should play on Trump’s desire for deal-making to show him that more military action will not serve his agenda of regional peace.
ecfr.eu/article/sell...
Europeans should oppose renewed military intervention and press the case for diplomacy. Together with Arab states, they should play on Trump’s desire for deal-making to show him that more military action will not serve his agenda of regional peace.
ecfr.eu/article/sell...
Trump's economic development plan for New Gaza can be traced back to his first presidency.
It also includes ideas from US-Israeli security companies & Egypt.
Mega🧵🧵
In 2019, the White House developed a 21-slide PPT presentation with ideas to support Gaza's economic future.
It also includes ideas from US-Israeli security companies & Egypt.
Mega🧵🧵
In 2019, the White House developed a 21-slide PPT presentation with ideas to support Gaza's economic future.
January 26, 2026 at 11:47 AM
Trump's economic development plan for New Gaza can be traced back to his first presidency.
It also includes ideas from US-Israeli security companies & Egypt.
Mega🧵🧵
In 2019, the White House developed a 21-slide PPT presentation with ideas to support Gaza's economic future.
It also includes ideas from US-Israeli security companies & Egypt.
Mega🧵🧵
In 2019, the White House developed a 21-slide PPT presentation with ideas to support Gaza's economic future.
Reposted by Hugh Lovatt
@hlovatt.bsky.social outlines a Board of Peace structure proposed by Trump in Davos.
"The mixture of private investment funds with American power and geopolitics, combined with likely opaque decision-making and is a recipe for kleptocratic oligarchy."
📌 Check out more: https://bit.ly/4rarkvA
"The mixture of private investment funds with American power and geopolitics, combined with likely opaque decision-making and is a recipe for kleptocratic oligarchy."
📌 Check out more: https://bit.ly/4rarkvA
January 23, 2026 at 3:00 PM
@hlovatt.bsky.social outlines a Board of Peace structure proposed by Trump in Davos.
"The mixture of private investment funds with American power and geopolitics, combined with likely opaque decision-making and is a recipe for kleptocratic oligarchy."
📌 Check out more: https://bit.ly/4rarkvA
"The mixture of private investment funds with American power and geopolitics, combined with likely opaque decision-making and is a recipe for kleptocratic oligarchy."
📌 Check out more: https://bit.ly/4rarkvA
My longer read for @ecfr.eu on what Trump's Board of Peace means for Gaza, Europe's quest for strategic autonomy, and the future of the global order:
ecfr.eu/article/welc...
ecfr.eu/article/welc...
January 23, 2026 at 1:27 PM
My longer read for @ecfr.eu on what Trump's Board of Peace means for Gaza, Europe's quest for strategic autonomy, and the future of the global order:
ecfr.eu/article/welc...
ecfr.eu/article/welc...
Reposted by Hugh Lovatt
Canada’s prime minister on the rupture of the old world order and the need of a new values-based realism: “The powerful have their power. But we have something too – the capacity to stop pretending, to name reality, to build our strength at home, and to act together.” www.pm.gc.ca/en/news/spee...
“Principled and pragmatic: Canada’s path” Prime Minister Carney addresses the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting
Thank you, Larry.It’s a pleasure – and a duty – to be with you at this turning point for Canada and for the world.Today, I’ll talk about the rupture in the world order, the end of a nice story, and th...
www.pm.gc.ca
January 21, 2026 at 9:17 AM
Canada’s prime minister on the rupture of the old world order and the need of a new values-based realism: “The powerful have their power. But we have something too – the capacity to stop pretending, to name reality, to build our strength at home, and to act together.” www.pm.gc.ca/en/news/spee...
Reposted by Hugh Lovatt
Members of the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG), which will report to the Board of Peace via High Representative Nikolay Mladenov, were announced last week. For a full breakdown, visit @ecfr.eu's Mapping Palestinian Politics project 👇 ecfr.eu/special/mapp...
BoP Inc is a Trump vanity project that has nothing to do with Gaza. But Europeans should still engage with its subsidiary Gaza Executive Committee which is aligned with UNSCR 2803 and where there is strong European representation through Nikolay Mladenov, Tony Blair & Sigrid Kaag.
January 22, 2026 at 1:35 PM
Members of the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG), which will report to the Board of Peace via High Representative Nikolay Mladenov, were announced last week. For a full breakdown, visit @ecfr.eu's Mapping Palestinian Politics project 👇 ecfr.eu/special/mapp...
With major Arab and Muslim states backing the BoP, Europeans are now grappling with the dilemma of whether to join, given concerns over its undermining of the UN and issues with its mandate/scope; vs the desire to get the US back onside, avoid tariffs, stay in the mix, etc. This is a false choice.🧵
January 21, 2026 at 8:03 PM
With major Arab and Muslim states backing the BoP, Europeans are now grappling with the dilemma of whether to join, given concerns over its undermining of the UN and issues with its mandate/scope; vs the desire to get the US back onside, avoid tariffs, stay in the mix, etc. This is a false choice.🧵
Reposted by Hugh Lovatt
Trump’s Board of Peace violates the Palestinians’ right to sovereignty in their own land. But it’s not really about Gaza at all . It is about Trump giving himself imperial power to replace the UN globally with his hand-picked friends and family, to make money and to even choose his own successor
My best effort at understanding Trump's Board of Peace and its constituent parts.
This is the Trump Organisation that the UK, Europe and Arab countries are being asked to buy into as an alternative to the UN. Understandably, many are hesitant.
This is the Trump Organisation that the UK, Europe and Arab countries are being asked to buy into as an alternative to the UN. Understandably, many are hesitant.
January 20, 2026 at 2:18 PM
Trump’s Board of Peace violates the Palestinians’ right to sovereignty in their own land. But it’s not really about Gaza at all . It is about Trump giving himself imperial power to replace the UN globally with his hand-picked friends and family, to make money and to even choose his own successor
My best effort at understanding Trump's Board of Peace and its constituent parts.
This is the Trump Organisation that the UK, Europe and Arab countries are being asked to buy into as an alternative to the UN. Understandably, many are hesitant.
This is the Trump Organisation that the UK, Europe and Arab countries are being asked to buy into as an alternative to the UN. Understandably, many are hesitant.
January 19, 2026 at 12:08 PM
My best effort at understanding Trump's Board of Peace and its constituent parts.
This is the Trump Organisation that the UK, Europe and Arab countries are being asked to buy into as an alternative to the UN. Understandably, many are hesitant.
This is the Trump Organisation that the UK, Europe and Arab countries are being asked to buy into as an alternative to the UN. Understandably, many are hesitant.
What to make of the Palestinian National Committee for the Administration of Gaza?
Its members are technocrats through and through drawing from the business, academic and NGO sectors, and the PA administration. Many come from notable Gazan families.
t.co/AKofZ3qvR7
Its members are technocrats through and through drawing from the business, academic and NGO sectors, and the PA administration. Many come from notable Gazan families.
t.co/AKofZ3qvR7
January 18, 2026 at 11:28 AM
What to make of the Palestinian National Committee for the Administration of Gaza?
Its members are technocrats through and through drawing from the business, academic and NGO sectors, and the PA administration. Many come from notable Gazan families.
t.co/AKofZ3qvR7
Its members are technocrats through and through drawing from the business, academic and NGO sectors, and the PA administration. Many come from notable Gazan families.
t.co/AKofZ3qvR7
Reposted by Hugh Lovatt
“Palantir is working on a tool for Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) that populates a map with potential deportation targets, brings up a dossier on each person, and provides a “confidence score” on the person’s current address,”
Report: ICE Using Palantir Tool That Feeds On Medicaid Data
ICE is using a Palantir tool that uses Medicaid and other government data to stalk people for arrest. This is exactly the kind of data privacy abuse that EFF has been warning about.
www.eff.org
January 17, 2026 at 7:59 AM
“Palantir is working on a tool for Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) that populates a map with potential deportation targets, brings up a dossier on each person, and provides a “confidence score” on the person’s current address,”
The focus is currently on the Trump-run Board of Peace.
Here is the Palestinian dimension, with 11/15 names of the new National Committee for Gaza which I have so far visually confirmed*: t.co/AKofZ3qvR7
Here is the Palestinian dimension, with 11/15 names of the new National Committee for Gaza which I have so far visually confirmed*: t.co/AKofZ3qvR7
January 17, 2026 at 9:43 AM
The focus is currently on the Trump-run Board of Peace.
Here is the Palestinian dimension, with 11/15 names of the new National Committee for Gaza which I have so far visually confirmed*: t.co/AKofZ3qvR7
Here is the Palestinian dimension, with 11/15 names of the new National Committee for Gaza which I have so far visually confirmed*: t.co/AKofZ3qvR7
Reposted by Hugh Lovatt
🎧 Following early December's Doha Forum, Mark Leonard brings together Ellie Geranmayeh and @hlovatt.bsky.social to discuss the geopolitical changes and diplomatic efforts shaping Middle Eastern politics, from Gaza's fragile future and Iran's nuclear conundrum. ecfr.eu/podcasts/epi...
After Doha: What’s next for the Arab world? – European Council on Foreign Relations
Mark Leonard welcomes Ellie Geranmayeh and Hugh Lovatt, fresh from the Doha Forum, to unravel the geopolitical changes and diplomatic efforts shaping Middle Eas
buff.ly
December 19, 2025 at 1:39 PM
🎧 Following early December's Doha Forum, Mark Leonard brings together Ellie Geranmayeh and @hlovatt.bsky.social to discuss the geopolitical changes and diplomatic efforts shaping Middle Eastern politics, from Gaza's fragile future and Iran's nuclear conundrum. ecfr.eu/podcasts/epi...
Reposted by Hugh Lovatt
In case you need them, here are some reasons not to read the new national security strategy open.substack.com/pub/blueblaz...
The Thinker VI
The Unbearable Lightness of Strategy
open.substack.com
December 6, 2025 at 9:40 AM
In case you need them, here are some reasons not to read the new national security strategy open.substack.com/pub/blueblaz...
Reposted by Hugh Lovatt
✍️ Squeezed by a brutal occupation, the dysfunctionality of the PA and the broader political system is apparent to all and each want a different fix. What is often ignored in this is what Palestinians want. @hlovatt.bsky.social & @tahanimustafa.bsky.social for @ecfr.eu ecfr.eu/publication/...
Averting West Bank collapse: How to revive Palestinian politics | ECFR
Hollowed out by violent Israeli control and Mahmoud Abbas’s personal rule, the Palestinian Authority is losing its grip on the West Bank. European and Arab stat
buff.ly
November 27, 2025 at 10:01 AM
✍️ Squeezed by a brutal occupation, the dysfunctionality of the PA and the broader political system is apparent to all and each want a different fix. What is often ignored in this is what Palestinians want. @hlovatt.bsky.social & @tahanimustafa.bsky.social for @ecfr.eu ecfr.eu/publication/...
Political renewal is needed to argue Palestinian positions internationally, build consensus and apply pressure on actors that deviate from this. Until Palestinians have legitimate institutions that speak for them, some will be driven to violence to make themselves heard. ecfr.eu/publication/...
Averting West Bank collapse: How to revive Palestinian politics
Hollowed out by violent Israeli control and Mahmoud Abbas’s personal rule, the Palestinian Authority is losing its grip on the West Bank. European and Arab states must intervene to rebuild legitimate…
ecfr.eu
November 22, 2025 at 10:21 AM
Political renewal is needed to argue Palestinian positions internationally, build consensus and apply pressure on actors that deviate from this. Until Palestinians have legitimate institutions that speak for them, some will be driven to violence to make themselves heard. ecfr.eu/publication/...
Backed by far-right ministers such as Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, the settler movement seeks to incorporate the West Bank, Gaza and, at its most extreme interpretation, parts of Syria, Lebanon and Jordan, into Israel.
ecfr.eu/publication/...
ecfr.eu/publication/...
November 21, 2025 at 1:14 PM
Backed by far-right ministers such as Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, the settler movement seeks to incorporate the West Bank, Gaza and, at its most extreme interpretation, parts of Syria, Lebanon and Jordan, into Israel.
ecfr.eu/publication/...
ecfr.eu/publication/...
Reposted by Hugh Lovatt
Big & important new @ecfr.eu read: Averting West Bank collapse: How to revive Palestinian politics - by @hlovatt.bsky.social & @tahanimustafa.bsky.social ecfr.eu/publication/... @ecfrmena.bsky.social
Averting West Bank collapse: How to revive Palestinian politics
Hollowed out by violent Israeli control and Mahmoud Abbas’s personal rule, the Palestinian Authority is losing its grip on the West Bank. European and Arab states must intervene to rebuild legitimate…
ecfr.eu
November 20, 2025 at 3:07 PM
Big & important new @ecfr.eu read: Averting West Bank collapse: How to revive Palestinian politics - by @hlovatt.bsky.social & @tahanimustafa.bsky.social ecfr.eu/publication/... @ecfrmena.bsky.social
Reposted by Hugh Lovatt
A very interesting new @ecfr.eu report about countering Russian hybrid warfare in Africa by @willbrownecfr.bsky.social. I am glad to see that the report really underlines one of my recent pet peeves: The need to go on the offensive on cyber.+
The bear and the bot farm: Countering Russian hybrid warfare in Africa
Russia has many quiet enemies in Africa. Working together, like-minded Africans and Europeans can roll back its troublesome influence.
ecfr.eu
November 7, 2025 at 12:54 PM
A very interesting new @ecfr.eu report about countering Russian hybrid warfare in Africa by @willbrownecfr.bsky.social. I am glad to see that the report really underlines one of my recent pet peeves: The need to go on the offensive on cyber.+
Reposted by Hugh Lovatt
✍️ Europeans should capitalise on the Polisario’s willingness to engage in renewed negotiations that would preserve the current economic interests of Morocco relating to Western Sahara’s natural resources, writes @hlovatt.bsky.social buff.ly/9ducliL
Western Sahara shuffle: Trump’s foray could make or break peace | ECFR
President Donald Trump’s quest for a peace prize has led him to Western Sahara, where American diplomacy risks either sparking more violence or seizing a rare c
buff.ly
November 5, 2025 at 12:22 PM
✍️ Europeans should capitalise on the Polisario’s willingness to engage in renewed negotiations that would preserve the current economic interests of Morocco relating to Western Sahara’s natural resources, writes @hlovatt.bsky.social buff.ly/9ducliL
Reposted by Hugh Lovatt
Part of the background to the fall of El Fasher and RSF atrocities there is the sustained airlift from the UAE to the RSF via Libya - sixty Il-76 flights during October alone.
For the past six months, Haftar-controlled eastern Libya has supplanted Chad as the RSF's most important supply route.
For the past six months, Haftar-controlled eastern Libya has supplanted Chad as the RSF's most important supply route.
October 30, 2025 at 4:18 PM
Part of the background to the fall of El Fasher and RSF atrocities there is the sustained airlift from the UAE to the RSF via Libya - sixty Il-76 flights during October alone.
For the past six months, Haftar-controlled eastern Libya has supplanted Chad as the RSF's most important supply route.
For the past six months, Haftar-controlled eastern Libya has supplanted Chad as the RSF's most important supply route.
Pleasure to be at ISPI's MED Dialogues on a panel moderated by @martinkonecny.bsky.social talking about the future of Palestinian governance with Obada Shtaya and Hiba Husseini
Watch what we had to say 👇
events.ispionline.it/the-future-o...
Watch what we had to say 👇
events.ispionline.it/the-future-o...
The Future of Palestinian Governance
The events of the past two years represent one of the darkest pages of the history not only of Israel-Palestine, but of the entire Mediterranean region. In Gaza, where more than 60,000 lives have been...
events.ispionline.it
October 27, 2025 at 8:05 AM
Pleasure to be at ISPI's MED Dialogues on a panel moderated by @martinkonecny.bsky.social talking about the future of Palestinian governance with Obada Shtaya and Hiba Husseini
Watch what we had to say 👇
events.ispionline.it/the-future-o...
Watch what we had to say 👇
events.ispionline.it/the-future-o...
New @ecfr.eu by @muhammadshehada.bsky.social:
"The question is not whether Hamas will change overnight, but whether diplomacy can evolve fast enough to meet Hamas at its most flexible before it returns to the logic of perpetual war."
t.co/LPBLj4qNV8
"The question is not whether Hamas will change overnight, but whether diplomacy can evolve fast enough to meet Hamas at its most flexible before it returns to the logic of perpetual war."
t.co/LPBLj4qNV8
https://ecfr.eu/article/diplomacy-next-the-internal-politics-of-hamas-and-the-power-of-european-engagement/
t.co
October 24, 2025 at 4:44 PM
New @ecfr.eu by @muhammadshehada.bsky.social:
"The question is not whether Hamas will change overnight, but whether diplomacy can evolve fast enough to meet Hamas at its most flexible before it returns to the logic of perpetual war."
t.co/LPBLj4qNV8
"The question is not whether Hamas will change overnight, but whether diplomacy can evolve fast enough to meet Hamas at its most flexible before it returns to the logic of perpetual war."
t.co/LPBLj4qNV8
Positive news to see Polisario updating its 2007 peace proposal -- long overdue and something we
@ecfr
have been advocating for the past 4 years.
On why this is needed, and how it can advance a Trump deal, here is my most recent piece: cidob.org/en/publicati...
@ecfr
have been advocating for the past 4 years.
On why this is needed, and how it can advance a Trump deal, here is my most recent piece: cidob.org/en/publicati...
October 21, 2025 at 2:49 PM
Positive news to see Polisario updating its 2007 peace proposal -- long overdue and something we
@ecfr
have been advocating for the past 4 years.
On why this is needed, and how it can advance a Trump deal, here is my most recent piece: cidob.org/en/publicati...
@ecfr
have been advocating for the past 4 years.
On why this is needed, and how it can advance a Trump deal, here is my most recent piece: cidob.org/en/publicati...
Reposted by Hugh Lovatt
European states should offer support for the broad principles of the plan conditioned on a clear Israeli commitment to a full withdrawal from Gaza, write @hlovatt.bsky.social @jbdacey.bsky.social @ecfrmena.bsky.social
https://bit.ly/42YPEqn
https://bit.ly/42YPEqn
Trump’s Gaza plan: How Europe can help make it happen
European states should offer support for the broad principles of the plan conditioned on a clear Israeli commitment to a full withdrawal from Gaza.
ecfr.eu
September 30, 2025 at 3:30 PM
European states should offer support for the broad principles of the plan conditioned on a clear Israeli commitment to a full withdrawal from Gaza, write @hlovatt.bsky.social @jbdacey.bsky.social @ecfrmena.bsky.social
https://bit.ly/42YPEqn
https://bit.ly/42YPEqn