Julien Barnes-Dacey
@jbdacey.bsky.social
MENA programme director at the European Council on Foreign Relations. Europe-based, once upon a time in Syria and Egypt
Pinned
Julien Barnes-Dacey
@jbdacey.bsky.social
· May 15
Pieces in motion: Rebalancing power in a new Levantine order
How Europe can use the current moment of flux in the Middle East to help stabilise Iraq…
ecfr.eu
NEW @ecfr.eu report with @hlovatt.bsky.social & Ellie Geranmayeh on the shifting geopolitics of Iraq, Syria & Lebanon: "stability, a vital European interest, depends on the establishment of a new balance of power that can support independent govs free from external hegemony" ecfr.eu/publication/...
Reposted by Julien Barnes-Dacey
Finally, and just published tonight: a European perspective on the humanitarian nightmare in Sudan. Europe can't do much. But @willbrownecfr.bsky.social and @cinziabianco.bsky.social make the case for it doing what it can: ecfr.eu/article/suda...
Sudan: A war Europe cannot stop, but cannot ignore
El-Fasher in North Darfur is now the epicentre of the world’s greatest humanitarian catastrophe. Europe’s options are limited, but there are still ways to hold the responsible accountable.
ecfr.eu
October 31, 2025 at 7:42 PM
Finally, and just published tonight: a European perspective on the humanitarian nightmare in Sudan. Europe can't do much. But @willbrownecfr.bsky.social and @cinziabianco.bsky.social make the case for it doing what it can: ecfr.eu/article/suda...
Reposted by Julien Barnes-Dacey
Glad to see this out!
In my latest policy brief with @ecfr.eu, I argue that Europe needs a more coherent, horizontal and context-sensitive approach in its green energy relations with Tunisia to create mutual benefits and people-centered cooperation.
#EU #Tunisia #COP30 #energytransition
In my latest policy brief with @ecfr.eu, I argue that Europe needs a more coherent, horizontal and context-sensitive approach in its green energy relations with Tunisia to create mutual benefits and people-centered cooperation.
#EU #Tunisia #COP30 #energytransition
Cooperation on clean energy will be an important facet of the EU’s “Pact for the Mediterranean”, a new strategic initiative to connect the bloc with its neighbours in North Africa and beyond, writes @philippwa.bsky.social @ecfrmena.bsky.social
https://bit.ly/4oLCCoK
https://bit.ly/4oLCCoK
Power sharing: The politics of European-Tunisian energy cooperation
The ethos of the EU’s “Pact for the Mediterranean” could help revitalise cooperation on clean energy with Tunisia—but only if Europeans learn how to better factor in the country’s politics…
bit.ly
October 31, 2025 at 11:01 AM
Glad to see this out!
In my latest policy brief with @ecfr.eu, I argue that Europe needs a more coherent, horizontal and context-sensitive approach in its green energy relations with Tunisia to create mutual benefits and people-centered cooperation.
#EU #Tunisia #COP30 #energytransition
In my latest policy brief with @ecfr.eu, I argue that Europe needs a more coherent, horizontal and context-sensitive approach in its green energy relations with Tunisia to create mutual benefits and people-centered cooperation.
#EU #Tunisia #COP30 #energytransition
Reposted by Julien Barnes-Dacey
In Sudan, Rapid Support Forces captured the city of el-Fasher, resulting in fears of mass killings. To support long-term stability in Sudan, European policymakers can benefit from a closer understanding of Gulf interests, writes Jonas Horner @ecfrafrica.bsky.social
https://bit.ly/3WNGppP
https://bit.ly/3WNGppP
The falcons and the secretary bird: Arab Gulf states in Sudan’s war
The Arab Gulf states’ pursuits in Sudan keep fuelling violence. But their wealth and influence mean any lasting peace will necessarily hinge on their cooperation.
bit.ly
October 29, 2025 at 9:24 AM
In Sudan, Rapid Support Forces captured the city of el-Fasher, resulting in fears of mass killings. To support long-term stability in Sudan, European policymakers can benefit from a closer understanding of Gulf interests, writes Jonas Horner @ecfrafrica.bsky.social
https://bit.ly/3WNGppP
https://bit.ly/3WNGppP
Reposted by Julien Barnes-Dacey
Moscow has developed a powerful propaganda machine that taps into existing antipathy towards Europe, particularly France, to push African governments closer to its foreign policy objectives, writes @willbrownecfr.bsky.social @ecfrafrica.bsky.social
https://bit.ly/3Jmv4cS
https://bit.ly/3Jmv4cS
The bear and the bot farm: Countering Russian hybrid warfare in Africa
Russia has many quiet enemies in Africa. Working together, like-minded Africans and Europeans can roll back its troublesome influence.
bit.ly
October 22, 2025 at 8:15 AM
Moscow has developed a powerful propaganda machine that taps into existing antipathy towards Europe, particularly France, to push African governments closer to its foreign policy objectives, writes @willbrownecfr.bsky.social @ecfrafrica.bsky.social
https://bit.ly/3Jmv4cS
https://bit.ly/3Jmv4cS
Reposted by Julien Barnes-Dacey
New by @muhammadshehada.bsky.social @ecfr.eu on internal Hamas dynamics after the ceasefire: “The question is not whether Hamas will change overnight but whether diplomacy can evolve fast enough to meet Hamas at its most flexible before it returns to logic of perpetual war” ecfr.eu/article/dipl...
Diplomacy next: The internal politics of Hamas and the power of European engagement
Europeans have the potential to tip the scales in the coming diplomatic negotiations over Gaza, but they must move rapidly…
ecfr.eu
October 25, 2025 at 7:10 AM
New by @muhammadshehada.bsky.social @ecfr.eu on internal Hamas dynamics after the ceasefire: “The question is not whether Hamas will change overnight but whether diplomacy can evolve fast enough to meet Hamas at its most flexible before it returns to logic of perpetual war” ecfr.eu/article/dipl...
New by @muhammadshehada.bsky.social @ecfr.eu on internal Hamas dynamics after the ceasefire: “The question is not whether Hamas will change overnight but whether diplomacy can evolve fast enough to meet Hamas at its most flexible before it returns to logic of perpetual war” ecfr.eu/article/dipl...
Diplomacy next: The internal politics of Hamas and the power of European engagement
Europeans have the potential to tip the scales in the coming diplomatic negotiations over Gaza, but they must move rapidly…
ecfr.eu
October 25, 2025 at 7:10 AM
New by @muhammadshehada.bsky.social @ecfr.eu on internal Hamas dynamics after the ceasefire: “The question is not whether Hamas will change overnight but whether diplomacy can evolve fast enough to meet Hamas at its most flexible before it returns to logic of perpetual war” ecfr.eu/article/dipl...
Reposted by Julien Barnes-Dacey
Positive news to see Polisario updating its 2007 peace proposal -- long overdue and something we
@ecfr
have been advocating for the past 4 years.
On why this is needed, and how it can advance a Trump deal, here is my most recent piece: cidob.org/en/publicati...
@ecfr
have been advocating for the past 4 years.
On why this is needed, and how it can advance a Trump deal, here is my most recent piece: cidob.org/en/publicati...
October 21, 2025 at 2:49 PM
Positive news to see Polisario updating its 2007 peace proposal -- long overdue and something we
@ecfr
have been advocating for the past 4 years.
On why this is needed, and how it can advance a Trump deal, here is my most recent piece: cidob.org/en/publicati...
@ecfr
have been advocating for the past 4 years.
On why this is needed, and how it can advance a Trump deal, here is my most recent piece: cidob.org/en/publicati...
Reposted by Julien Barnes-Dacey
Today at the MED Dialogues: @jbdacey.bsky.social co-chairs with Maha Yahya a special dialogue with Mohammed bin Abdulaziz Al-Khulaifi, Qatari Minister of State, discussing regional approaches to Trump's Gaza plan & outlooks for Syria, Lebanon & Iran.
October 16, 2025 at 9:02 AM
Today at the MED Dialogues: @jbdacey.bsky.social co-chairs with Maha Yahya a special dialogue with Mohammed bin Abdulaziz Al-Khulaifi, Qatari Minister of State, discussing regional approaches to Trump's Gaza plan & outlooks for Syria, Lebanon & Iran.
Reposted by Julien Barnes-Dacey
1/ Israel and Hamas have reached an agreement on the first Phase of Trump's plan. Nevertheless, the details are still unclear. Yet, our experts @hlovatt.bsky.social, @jbdacey.bsky.social and @muhammadshehada.bsky.social analysed its gaps in the recent papers @ecfrmena.bsky.social 👇
bit.ly/4gRX0Sg
bit.ly/4gRX0Sg
An imperfect promise: Where Trump’s peace plan for Gaza falls short
Trump’s peace plan could finally bring an end to Israel’s destruction of Gaza. But gaps in timing, guarantees, and last-minute Israeli amendments risk failure unless European and Arab states intervene...
ecfr.eu
October 9, 2025 at 9:18 AM
1/ Israel and Hamas have reached an agreement on the first Phase of Trump's plan. Nevertheless, the details are still unclear. Yet, our experts @hlovatt.bsky.social, @jbdacey.bsky.social and @muhammadshehada.bsky.social analysed its gaps in the recent papers @ecfrmena.bsky.social 👇
bit.ly/4gRX0Sg
bit.ly/4gRX0Sg
Reposted by Julien Barnes-Dacey
Meloni aims to redefine Italy’s relationship with countries to its south by creating equal partnerships with partner states. This also involves enhancing the role of the private sector, write @kellyp90.bsky.social and @arturovarvelli.bsky.social @ecfrmena.bsky.social
https://bit.ly/42r0HbI
https://bit.ly/42r0HbI
The turtle and the pilot fish: How the EU and Italy can help each other in the Mediterranean
Italy and the EU must work more closely together in the “Wider Mediterranean” on energy, migration and security. Here’s how they can do it.
bit.ly
October 6, 2025 at 3:24 PM
Meloni aims to redefine Italy’s relationship with countries to its south by creating equal partnerships with partner states. This also involves enhancing the role of the private sector, write @kellyp90.bsky.social and @arturovarvelli.bsky.social @ecfrmena.bsky.social
https://bit.ly/42r0HbI
https://bit.ly/42r0HbI
Reposted by Julien Barnes-Dacey
Following the announcement of Trump's Gaza plan this is an important piece to revisit by @muhammadshehada.bsky.social on question of Hamas disarmament @ecfr.eu @ecfrmena.bsky.social ecfr.eu/article/deco...
Decommission, not disarm: How Europe can help nudge Gaza toward peace
As Israel and Hamas edge toward a ceasefire, shifts are under way in both: Hamas is quietly opening up to decommissioning and Israel’s security elite is realising military victory is a myth.
ecfr.eu
October 3, 2025 at 8:52 AM
Following the announcement of Trump's Gaza plan this is an important piece to revisit by @muhammadshehada.bsky.social on question of Hamas disarmament @ecfr.eu @ecfrmena.bsky.social ecfr.eu/article/deco...
Reposted by Julien Barnes-Dacey
NEW piece unpacking the security & governance dimensions of Trump's Gaza plan - and outlining necessary benchmarks & guarantees, especially on an Israeli withdrawal, for any hope of success - new by @hlovatt.bsky.social & @muhammadshehada.bsky.social ecfr.eu/article/an-i...
An imperfect promise: Where Trump’s peace plan for Gaza falls short
Trump’s peace plan could finally bring an end to Israel’s destruction of Gaza. But gaps in timing, guarantees, and last-minute Israeli amendments risk failure unless European and Arab states intervene...
ecfr.eu
October 3, 2025 at 5:43 PM
NEW piece unpacking the security & governance dimensions of Trump's Gaza plan - and outlining necessary benchmarks & guarantees, especially on an Israeli withdrawal, for any hope of success - new by @hlovatt.bsky.social & @muhammadshehada.bsky.social ecfr.eu/article/an-i...
Following the announcement of Trump's Gaza plan this is an important piece to revisit by @muhammadshehada.bsky.social on question of Hamas disarmament @ecfr.eu @ecfrmena.bsky.social ecfr.eu/article/deco...
Decommission, not disarm: How Europe can help nudge Gaza toward peace
As Israel and Hamas edge toward a ceasefire, shifts are under way in both: Hamas is quietly opening up to decommissioning and Israel’s security elite is realising military victory is a myth.
ecfr.eu
October 3, 2025 at 8:52 AM
Following the announcement of Trump's Gaza plan this is an important piece to revisit by @muhammadshehada.bsky.social on question of Hamas disarmament @ecfr.eu @ecfrmena.bsky.social ecfr.eu/article/deco...
Reposted by Julien Barnes-Dacey
1/3 With #Syria’s (indirect) #parliamentary #elections less than a week away, I’ve put together an explainer on how the process works and the key issues to watch. A guide for both experts and observers.
www.arab-reform.net/publication/...
www.arab-reform.net/publication/...
Syria’s Parliamentary Elections Explained: Six Key Issues to Watch
Syria’s transitional authorities have announced indirect parliamentary elections to be held later this month (most likely between 15-20 September) to elect 140 of the 210 members of the People’s As…
www.arab-reform.net
September 29, 2025 at 1:00 PM
1/3 With #Syria’s (indirect) #parliamentary #elections less than a week away, I’ve put together an explainer on how the process works and the key issues to watch. A guide for both experts and observers.
www.arab-reform.net/publication/...
www.arab-reform.net/publication/...
Euro support for Trump's plan - which has sound elements to help end the war - needs to be tied to Israel’s explicit acceptance of a Gaza withdrawal & political path. If not the process will surely unravel, trapping Europe as enforcers of Israeli occupation by proxy @ecfr.eu ecfr.eu/article/trum...
Trump’s Gaza plan: How Europe can help make it happen
European states should offer support for the broad principles of the plan conditioned on a clear Israeli commitment to a full withdrawal from Gaza.
ecfr.eu
October 1, 2025 at 9:31 AM
Euro support for Trump's plan - which has sound elements to help end the war - needs to be tied to Israel’s explicit acceptance of a Gaza withdrawal & political path. If not the process will surely unravel, trapping Europe as enforcers of Israeli occupation by proxy @ecfr.eu ecfr.eu/article/trum...
Reposted by Julien Barnes-Dacey
✍️ Now that European leaders have reimposed UN sanctions on Iran, they must steer clear of America’s maximum pressure campaign and instead keep the diplomatic door open. Read Ellie Geranmayeh's piece for @ecfr.eu here 👇 buff.ly/w6z0osT
The risks of the draw: Europe’s post-snapback move on Iran
European leaders have reimposed UN sanctions on Iran. Now they must steer clear of America’s maximum pressure campaign and instead keep the diplomatic door open…
buff.ly
September 30, 2025 at 3:31 PM
✍️ Now that European leaders have reimposed UN sanctions on Iran, they must steer clear of America’s maximum pressure campaign and instead keep the diplomatic door open. Read Ellie Geranmayeh's piece for @ecfr.eu here 👇 buff.ly/w6z0osT
What a sight. Stranded in Idlib just 10 months ago, the new Syrian leadership hit Central Park
September 21, 2025 at 11:50 AM
What a sight. Stranded in Idlib just 10 months ago, the new Syrian leadership hit Central Park
“15 of every 16 Palestinians the Israeli military has killed since its renewed offensive in Gaza began in March have been civilians… internal data from the IDF indicated a civilian death toll of 83% between outbreak of war in Oct 2023 & May this year” www.theguardian.com/world/2025/s...
Civilians made up 15 of every 16 people killed by Israel in Gaza since March, data suggests
Report from independent conflict tracker Acled indicates one of the highest civilian death rates since start of war
www.theguardian.com
September 20, 2025 at 3:57 PM
“15 of every 16 Palestinians the Israeli military has killed since its renewed offensive in Gaza began in March have been civilians… internal data from the IDF indicated a civilian death toll of 83% between outbreak of war in Oct 2023 & May this year” www.theguardian.com/world/2025/s...
“identification with the Syrian state is at its lowest point…the consolidation of over 35 Druze armed factions…a de facto autonomous zone across central, southern & eastern Suwayda” - @ajaltamimi.bsky.social on hardening anti-Damascus Druze positioning www.aymennaltamimi.com/p/the-druze-...
The Druze 'National Guard' in Southern Syria
I am happy to share my latest article for ‘Syria in Transition’ on the ‘National Guard’ initiative in the primarily Druze province of al-Suwayda’ in southern Syria.
www.aymennaltamimi.com
September 19, 2025 at 9:23 AM
“identification with the Syrian state is at its lowest point…the consolidation of over 35 Druze armed factions…a de facto autonomous zone across central, southern & eastern Suwayda” - @ajaltamimi.bsky.social on hardening anti-Damascus Druze positioning www.aymennaltamimi.com/p/the-druze-...
On the mismatch in Israeli-Syrian negots & how it could feed deep ongoing instability. “For Syria, talks are a means to reduce conflict and assert sovereignty; for Israel, they serve as an extension of its strategy of coercion” writes @haidhaid22.bsky.social en.majalla.com/node/327415/...
Netanyahu’s ‘peace through force’ doctrine hurts Syria talks
Syria's foreign minister met Israeli officials in London on 17 September, sparking speculation that a deal is in the offing. But even if one is reached, it risks being more symbolic than substantive.
https://en.majalla.com/node/327415/politics/netanyahu’s-‘peace-through-force’-doctrine-hurts-syria-talks
September 19, 2025 at 9:09 AM
On the mismatch in Israeli-Syrian negots & how it could feed deep ongoing instability. “For Syria, talks are a means to reduce conflict and assert sovereignty; for Israel, they serve as an extension of its strategy of coercion” writes @haidhaid22.bsky.social en.majalla.com/node/327415/...
Israel’s initial response to Oct 7 helped Gulf states by weakening Iran but it is now entrenching conflict, fragmenting Arab states & pulling Gulf states towards escalation, all of which also threatens Euro interests. @cinziabianco.bsky.social on post-Doha dynamics ecfr.eu/article/out-...
Out of the rubble: The new Gulf response to Israeli aggression
The Israeli attacks on Doha, and America’s support of them, has caused Gulf leaders to majorly rethink their security. This could lead to a new Gulf-led security format…
ecfr.eu
September 19, 2025 at 8:58 AM
Israel’s initial response to Oct 7 helped Gulf states by weakening Iran but it is now entrenching conflict, fragmenting Arab states & pulling Gulf states towards escalation, all of which also threatens Euro interests. @cinziabianco.bsky.social on post-Doha dynamics ecfr.eu/article/out-...
Qatar is at least the sixth country bombed by Israel in recent months. Europe must finally impose tangible pressure on Israel to end the Gaza war & its regional belligerence, doing far more to ensure its ties to Israel don't make it complicit in violations - new from @ecfr.eu ecfr.eu/article/qata...
Qatar quake: Israel blows another hole in Middle East security
The Doha strike risks deepening regional scepticism of Western security partnerships in the Middle East. Europe needs to do much more to pressure Israel into ending the war in Gaza and curbing its reg...
ecfr.eu
September 10, 2025 at 2:05 PM
Qatar is at least the sixth country bombed by Israel in recent months. Europe must finally impose tangible pressure on Israel to end the Gaza war & its regional belligerence, doing far more to ensure its ties to Israel don't make it complicit in violations - new from @ecfr.eu ecfr.eu/article/qata...
“Lebanon is being treated like a country that lost a war...However, embarking on a civil conflict to satisfy voices in Washington & Tel Aviv is suicide. There is absolutely no reason for the Lebanese to destroy themselves in order to purportedly save themselves” carnegieendowment.org/middle-east/...
Ignore Siren Songs from Washington
The United States is pushing toward a military solution for Hezbollah’s weapons, the worst option of all.
carnegieendowment.org
September 10, 2025 at 1:28 PM
“Lebanon is being treated like a country that lost a war...However, embarking on a civil conflict to satisfy voices in Washington & Tel Aviv is suicide. There is absolutely no reason for the Lebanese to destroy themselves in order to purportedly save themselves” carnegieendowment.org/middle-east/...
Good paper by @abujamajem.com on Lebanese positioning on refugee returns and associated dynamics inside of Syria
My new @tcfdotorg.bsky.social @centuryintl.bsky.social report on the Lebanese government's new Syrian refugee return plan – what the plan is, its realistic prospects, and how to deliver returns that are truly sustainable: tcf.org/content/repo...
Home to Syria: Lebanon’s New Refugee Returns Plan
Lebanon has grappled for years with how to manage its Syrian refugee population. This year, though, Lebanon finally adopted an official plan for refugee
tcf.org
September 10, 2025 at 12:14 PM
Good paper by @abujamajem.com on Lebanese positioning on refugee returns and associated dynamics inside of Syria