Jean Fisch
@jeanfisch.bsky.social
Analysis, rationalism & objectivity are my sins
And of course I did my usual stunt: forget to share the link to the piece
It's this piece in the Telegraph (thanks to Peter for filling in!)
bsky.app/profile/avin...
It's this piece in the Telegraph (thanks to Peter for filling in!)
bsky.app/profile/avin...
November 16, 2025 at 4:05 PM
And of course I did my usual stunt: forget to share the link to the piece
It's this piece in the Telegraph (thanks to Peter for filling in!)
bsky.app/profile/avin...
It's this piece in the Telegraph (thanks to Peter for filling in!)
bsky.app/profile/avin...
My specialty: make a big fuzz and then forget to share what triggered it
Sorry, I just forgot to share the link / will do it now
Sorry, I just forgot to share the link / will do it now
November 16, 2025 at 4:04 PM
My specialty: make a big fuzz and then forget to share what triggered it
Sorry, I just forgot to share the link / will do it now
Sorry, I just forgot to share the link / will do it now
What we don't know is how severe they are / that needs to be found out by testing people who took say the flu vaccine in 2025-2026 and compare them over 2 years with those who don't
And we need to do this for all vaccines
It's annoying but it's alas the situation
And we need to do this for all vaccines
It's annoying but it's alas the situation
November 16, 2025 at 1:34 PM
What we don't know is how severe they are / that needs to be found out by testing people who took say the flu vaccine in 2025-2026 and compare them over 2 years with those who don't
And we need to do this for all vaccines
It's annoying but it's alas the situation
And we need to do this for all vaccines
It's annoying but it's alas the situation
... as severe if not more severe than Wuhan, we know that there was an effect
Indirectly, we can use the same approach to guestimate some efficacy against Omicron
But what the biases found in the DK study show is that a "straight" comparison of vax and non vax is going to be affected by biases
Indirectly, we can use the same approach to guestimate some efficacy against Omicron
But what the biases found in the DK study show is that a "straight" comparison of vax and non vax is going to be affected by biases
November 16, 2025 at 1:32 PM
... as severe if not more severe than Wuhan, we know that there was an effect
Indirectly, we can use the same approach to guestimate some efficacy against Omicron
But what the biases found in the DK study show is that a "straight" comparison of vax and non vax is going to be affected by biases
Indirectly, we can use the same approach to guestimate some efficacy against Omicron
But what the biases found in the DK study show is that a "straight" comparison of vax and non vax is going to be affected by biases
It does not mean that the original RCT trials are affected: There, there is no bias and it was shown that there was a real effect
Also, in the UK, there is real data on infections and mortality in 2021 which shows an effect at pop level by age
Since we know that the variants in 2021 were ...
Also, in the UK, there is real data on infections and mortality in 2021 which shows an effect at pop level by age
Since we know that the variants in 2021 were ...
November 16, 2025 at 1:31 PM
It does not mean that the original RCT trials are affected: There, there is no bias and it was shown that there was a real effect
Also, in the UK, there is real data on infections and mortality in 2021 which shows an effect at pop level by age
Since we know that the variants in 2021 were ...
Also, in the UK, there is real data on infections and mortality in 2021 which shows an effect at pop level by age
Since we know that the variants in 2021 were ...
You are extrapolating too far: What I wrote is that the Danish national data showed that there is a strong healthy vaccinee effect which cannot be erased simply by correcting for say comorbidity
This affects any observational analysis ie in which people decide if they take or not a vaccine
This affects any observational analysis ie in which people decide if they take or not a vaccine
November 16, 2025 at 1:30 PM
You are extrapolating too far: What I wrote is that the Danish national data showed that there is a strong healthy vaccinee effect which cannot be erased simply by correcting for say comorbidity
This affects any observational analysis ie in which people decide if they take or not a vaccine
This affects any observational analysis ie in which people decide if they take or not a vaccine
So, in summary:
- There has never been any significant signal in the English data of topline excess not explained by covid, flu or heat
- And there still isn't, even if a newspaper asks the question again
END
- There has never been any significant signal in the English data of topline excess not explained by covid, flu or heat
- And there still isn't, even if a newspaper asks the question again
END
November 16, 2025 at 8:49 AM
So, in summary:
- There has never been any significant signal in the English data of topline excess not explained by covid, flu or heat
- And there still isn't, even if a newspaper asks the question again
END
- There has never been any significant signal in the English data of topline excess not explained by covid, flu or heat
- And there still isn't, even if a newspaper asks the question again
END
In fact, ONS was the 1st stats office to release mortality data by vax status and it is thanks to that data that these biases from vaccination status emerged
(look at 2021-2022 where unvaxed have higher all-cause mortality here but there are other biases at more granular level)
5/
(look at 2021-2022 where unvaxed have higher all-cause mortality here but there are other biases at more granular level)
5/
November 16, 2025 at 8:48 AM
In fact, ONS was the 1st stats office to release mortality data by vax status and it is thanks to that data that these biases from vaccination status emerged
(look at 2021-2022 where unvaxed have higher all-cause mortality here but there are other biases at more granular level)
5/
(look at 2021-2022 where unvaxed have higher all-cause mortality here but there are other biases at more granular level)
5/
And any analysis of mortality by covid vaccination status has been repeatedly shown (incl in this ground-breaking Danish study) to be massively affected by biases
This basically makes any analysis by vax status pointless re vaccine safety or efficacy
4/
bsky.app/profile/jean...
This basically makes any analysis by vax status pointless re vaccine safety or efficacy
4/
bsky.app/profile/jean...
The healthy vaccinee effect runs deeper than we may think
What this full national Danish study shows is that a huge effect remains even after correcting for age, sex, comorbidity, medical visits and place of residence
The "unvaccinated by choice" test less (and die earlier)
1/
What this full national Danish study shows is that a huge effect remains even after correcting for age, sex, comorbidity, medical visits and place of residence
The "unvaccinated by choice" test less (and die earlier)
1/
November 16, 2025 at 8:47 AM
And any analysis of mortality by covid vaccination status has been repeatedly shown (incl in this ground-breaking Danish study) to be massively affected by biases
This basically makes any analysis by vax status pointless re vaccine safety or efficacy
4/
bsky.app/profile/jean...
This basically makes any analysis by vax status pointless re vaccine safety or efficacy
4/
bsky.app/profile/jean...
I am sure there will be enough imagination (better batches whatever) to explain NZE as well
but here is the issue
If your hypothesis 0 explains everything and is fully coherent, there is no basis for an alternative hypothesis until you find a measurable flaw in hypothesis 0
3/
but here is the issue
If your hypothesis 0 explains everything and is fully coherent, there is no basis for an alternative hypothesis until you find a measurable flaw in hypothesis 0
3/
November 16, 2025 at 8:46 AM
I am sure there will be enough imagination (better batches whatever) to explain NZE as well
but here is the issue
If your hypothesis 0 explains everything and is fully coherent, there is no basis for an alternative hypothesis until you find a measurable flaw in hypothesis 0
3/
but here is the issue
If your hypothesis 0 explains everything and is fully coherent, there is no basis for an alternative hypothesis until you find a measurable flaw in hypothesis 0
3/
Now I am sure there is enough imagination out there to find theories that will question the validity of the data (ie that deaths were wrongly recorded)
But then those theories would need to explain why you didn't see any signal in New Zealand in 2021
2/
x.com/Jean__Fisch/...
But then those theories would need to explain why you didn't see any signal in New Zealand in 2021
2/
x.com/Jean__Fisch/...
Jean Fisch on X: "My thread on why New Zealand "demonstrates" that vaccines cannot be the source of huge deaths due to vaccines created quite a stir Some seem to have a hard time to believe it and come up with quite some hand-waving to say it's wrong Let me summarize all my checks here https://t.co/PaY7pZDt8T" / X
My thread on why New Zealand "demonstrates" that vaccines cannot be the source of huge deaths due to vaccines created quite a stir Some seem to have a hard time to believe it and come up with quite some hand-waving to say it's wrong Let me summarize all my checks here https://t.co/PaY7pZDt8T
x.com
November 16, 2025 at 8:46 AM
Now I am sure there is enough imagination out there to find theories that will question the validity of the data (ie that deaths were wrongly recorded)
But then those theories would need to explain why you didn't see any signal in New Zealand in 2021
2/
x.com/Jean__Fisch/...
But then those theories would need to explain why you didn't see any signal in New Zealand in 2021
2/
x.com/Jean__Fisch/...
Yes, you mentioned and I still can't get my head around this
November 15, 2025 at 8:07 PM
Yes, you mentioned and I still can't get my head around this
This is fine if everybody plays by the book and recognizes that the best way to do vaccine surveillance is to have an "unfiltered gossip pick up system" which guides where to focus real analysis
But in the world of vaccine skeptics, a "gossip pick up system" is a fantastic way to question vaccines
But in the world of vaccine skeptics, a "gossip pick up system" is a fantastic way to question vaccines
November 15, 2025 at 8:18 AM
This is fine if everybody plays by the book and recognizes that the best way to do vaccine surveillance is to have an "unfiltered gossip pick up system" which guides where to focus real analysis
But in the world of vaccine skeptics, a "gossip pick up system" is a fantastic way to question vaccines
But in the world of vaccine skeptics, a "gossip pick up system" is a fantastic way to question vaccines
It's passive (so relying on reports) as everywhere else with, in this case, an active look at the data
The problem with all the passive systems is that there are really not much good for anything beyond "oh look there is a signal: we now need to check if there is something in it or not"
1/
The problem with all the passive systems is that there are really not much good for anything beyond "oh look there is a signal: we now need to check if there is something in it or not"
1/
November 15, 2025 at 8:14 AM
It's passive (so relying on reports) as everywhere else with, in this case, an active look at the data
The problem with all the passive systems is that there are really not much good for anything beyond "oh look there is a signal: we now need to check if there is something in it or not"
1/
The problem with all the passive systems is that there are really not much good for anything beyond "oh look there is a signal: we now need to check if there is something in it or not"
1/
Link to study: link.springer.com/article/10.1...
Spontaneous Reports of Adverse Reactions with Fatal Outcomes After COVID-19 Vaccination During the National Vaccination Campaign in Sweden - Clinical Drug Investigation
Background and Objectives Reports of suspected adverse drug reactions are of a great importance for the safety monitoring of new vaccines to identify potential safety risks promptly and to ensure nece...
link.springer.com
November 14, 2025 at 4:48 PM
Link to study: link.springer.com/article/10.1...
If I am honest, I would have hoped for a more causal walk-through of the 456 (so splitting them up into groups of what the authors believed was the cause and why)
Just for reference, Germany (4x pop) has 300 based on death certificates and UK (3x larger pop) 70-80
2/2
Just for reference, Germany (4x pop) has 300 based on death certificates and UK (3x larger pop) 70-80
2/2
November 14, 2025 at 4:47 PM
If I am honest, I would have hoped for a more causal walk-through of the 456 (so splitting them up into groups of what the authors believed was the cause and why)
Just for reference, Germany (4x pop) has 300 based on death certificates and UK (3x larger pop) 70-80
2/2
Just for reference, Germany (4x pop) has 300 based on death certificates and UK (3x larger pop) 70-80
2/2
Another interesting thing is that waves are clearly bi-annual there and it looks as if this will continue this summer there (as there is a very small uptick)
This is not the pattern in western Europe (where it looks that covid is highly prevalent late summer / early-mid autumn)
This is not the pattern in western Europe (where it looks that covid is highly prevalent late summer / early-mid autumn)
November 14, 2025 at 7:11 AM
Another interesting thing is that waves are clearly bi-annual there and it looks as if this will continue this summer there (as there is a very small uptick)
This is not the pattern in western Europe (where it looks that covid is highly prevalent late summer / early-mid autumn)
This is not the pattern in western Europe (where it looks that covid is highly prevalent late summer / early-mid autumn)
Childish punts aside: I always wonder how one can contemplate theories of a "constructed pandemic" or even "viruses are an invention" as just the organisational set up required to run such an operation would be beyond comprehension
But maybe it's just me and my lack of imagination...
But maybe it's just me and my lack of imagination...
November 11, 2025 at 12:05 PM
Childish punts aside: I always wonder how one can contemplate theories of a "constructed pandemic" or even "viruses are an invention" as just the organisational set up required to run such an operation would be beyond comprehension
But maybe it's just me and my lack of imagination...
But maybe it's just me and my lack of imagination...
The bonus for once again managing successfully this feat across a whole country of 80m (typically 10% of vaccine sales) will come in handy for all these hard working people as the Christmas season is approaching
🥰❤️🎄
🥰❤️🎄
November 11, 2025 at 12:04 PM
The bonus for once again managing successfully this feat across a whole country of 80m (typically 10% of vaccine sales) will come in handy for all these hard working people as the Christmas season is approaching
🥰❤️🎄
🥰❤️🎄