Jean Fisch
@jeanfisch.bsky.social
Analysis, rationalism & objectivity are my sins
FWIW: Do covid vaccine reduce total mortality risk for 65+? Based on UK data the answer is
YES
assuming
- Vax mortality: 2.5 / mio (as per Yellow Card)
- Vax infx efficacy: 30% for 3 months
- IFR = 0.3%
- Infx per season is 15% pop
BUT
only if covid wave is within the 3 months (which it wasn't)
YES
assuming
- Vax mortality: 2.5 / mio (as per Yellow Card)
- Vax infx efficacy: 30% for 3 months
- IFR = 0.3%
- Infx per season is 15% pop
BUT
only if covid wave is within the 3 months (which it wasn't)
January 26, 2026 at 2:57 PM
FWIW: Do covid vaccine reduce total mortality risk for 65+? Based on UK data the answer is
YES
assuming
- Vax mortality: 2.5 / mio (as per Yellow Card)
- Vax infx efficacy: 30% for 3 months
- IFR = 0.3%
- Infx per season is 15% pop
BUT
only if covid wave is within the 3 months (which it wasn't)
YES
assuming
- Vax mortality: 2.5 / mio (as per Yellow Card)
- Vax infx efficacy: 30% for 3 months
- IFR = 0.3%
- Infx per season is 15% pop
BUT
only if covid wave is within the 3 months (which it wasn't)
Sigh ... Another paper on C19 vax vs unvaxed (here finding vaxed having more psychiatric events) which passed the review process at a major publisher (@nature.com) without any correction for C19 vax biases, ie that vaxed show lower mortality AND higher incidences
Useless paper
1/
Useless paper
1/
January 25, 2026 at 9:53 AM
Sigh ... Another paper on C19 vax vs unvaxed (here finding vaxed having more psychiatric events) which passed the review process at a major publisher (@nature.com) without any correction for C19 vax biases, ie that vaxed show lower mortality AND higher incidences
Useless paper
1/
Useless paper
1/
Covid in Belgium: I consolidated the indicators still shared by health authorities into a single chart by "normalized to 100" the peak value in (Oct) 24
The result shows clearly the peak in 24 and 25 in early October (as elsewhere) but also some noise or signal in Spring 25
The result shows clearly the peak in 24 and 25 in early October (as elsewhere) but also some noise or signal in Spring 25
January 24, 2026 at 7:37 PM
Covid in Belgium: I consolidated the indicators still shared by health authorities into a single chart by "normalized to 100" the peak value in (Oct) 24
The result shows clearly the peak in 24 and 25 in early October (as elsewhere) but also some noise or signal in Spring 25
The result shows clearly the peak in 24 and 25 in early October (as elsewhere) but also some noise or signal in Spring 25
@cbsstatistiek.bsky.social released deaths up to end 2025 for the Netherlands today
There were small moments of excess vs expected from pre-pandemic trends
a) Jan-Feb: severe flu wave
b) Aug: localized heat events
c) Oct-Nov: coinciding with the covid wave
Again, no unexplained excess
1/
There were small moments of excess vs expected from pre-pandemic trends
a) Jan-Feb: severe flu wave
b) Aug: localized heat events
c) Oct-Nov: coinciding with the covid wave
Again, no unexplained excess
1/
January 23, 2026 at 8:13 AM
@cbsstatistiek.bsky.social released deaths up to end 2025 for the Netherlands today
There were small moments of excess vs expected from pre-pandemic trends
a) Jan-Feb: severe flu wave
b) Aug: localized heat events
c) Oct-Nov: coinciding with the covid wave
Again, no unexplained excess
1/
There were small moments of excess vs expected from pre-pandemic trends
a) Jan-Feb: severe flu wave
b) Aug: localized heat events
c) Oct-Nov: coinciding with the covid wave
Again, no unexplained excess
1/
Next country: Spain - Overall mortality follows what was expected from pre-pandemic trends with a small excess from the unusually intense heat periods in the summer
Here also, mortality excess remains driven by flu (not in 2025) and heat (some)
1/
Here also, mortality excess remains driven by flu (not in 2025) and heat (some)
1/
January 21, 2026 at 4:27 PM
Next country: Spain - Overall mortality follows what was expected from pre-pandemic trends with a small excess from the unusually intense heat periods in the summer
Here also, mortality excess remains driven by flu (not in 2025) and heat (some)
1/
Here also, mortality excess remains driven by flu (not in 2025) and heat (some)
1/
Germany released its 1st complete set of deaths for 2025
Even after correction for reporting lag, 2025 proved almost as expected from pre-pandemic trends with a tiny excess due to flu (Feb), heat (Aug) and covid (Oct)
1/
Even after correction for reporting lag, 2025 proved almost as expected from pre-pandemic trends with a tiny excess due to flu (Feb), heat (Aug) and covid (Oct)
1/
January 20, 2026 at 2:15 PM
Germany released its 1st complete set of deaths for 2025
Even after correction for reporting lag, 2025 proved almost as expected from pre-pandemic trends with a tiny excess due to flu (Feb), heat (Aug) and covid (Oct)
1/
Even after correction for reporting lag, 2025 proved almost as expected from pre-pandemic trends with a tiny excess due to flu (Feb), heat (Aug) and covid (Oct)
1/
Here a first view on 2025 mortality in the US based on the provisional death data per 15/1/2026 update and corrected for reporting lag
2025 will see another mortality deficit vs. pre-pandemic trends (of 1-2%) despite a strong flu season
1/
2025 will see another mortality deficit vs. pre-pandemic trends (of 1-2%) despite a strong flu season
1/
January 19, 2026 at 3:09 PM
Here a first view on 2025 mortality in the US based on the provisional death data per 15/1/2026 update and corrected for reporting lag
2025 will see another mortality deficit vs. pre-pandemic trends (of 1-2%) despite a strong flu season
1/
2025 will see another mortality deficit vs. pre-pandemic trends (of 1-2%) despite a strong flu season
1/
Just because I see again absolute bullshit data bingo being shared on the back of the latest cancer data in the US: Here the confirmed age-adjusted new cancer rates by sex
I leave you make up your own mind about the "obvious confirmed massive excess of new cancers post vaccine"
I leave you make up your own mind about the "obvious confirmed massive excess of new cancers post vaccine"
January 14, 2026 at 3:35 PM
Just because I see again absolute bullshit data bingo being shared on the back of the latest cancer data in the US: Here the confirmed age-adjusted new cancer rates by sex
I leave you make up your own mind about the "obvious confirmed massive excess of new cancers post vaccine"
I leave you make up your own mind about the "obvious confirmed massive excess of new cancers post vaccine"
Unconventional theory: If something cannot be measured / found to be statistically significant
A) it doesn't exist
B( there is no point in speculating (unless you love discussions about the sex of the angels)
A) it doesn't exist
B( there is no point in speculating (unless you love discussions about the sex of the angels)
January 12, 2026 at 11:09 AM
Unconventional theory: If something cannot be measured / found to be statistically significant
A) it doesn't exist
B( there is no point in speculating (unless you love discussions about the sex of the angels)
A) it doesn't exist
B( there is no point in speculating (unless you love discussions about the sex of the angels)
The US changed its pediatric vax recommendation: I have no input on its pertinence but I do on its international comparison table (I was curious)
a) Belgium: 7 vaccines mandatory for <3 childcare (widely used) in its French-speaking part (~40% pop):
one.be/public/0-1-a...
1/
a) Belgium: 7 vaccines mandatory for <3 childcare (widely used) in its French-speaking part (~40% pop):
one.be/public/0-1-a...
1/
January 6, 2026 at 7:58 AM
The US changed its pediatric vax recommendation: I have no input on its pertinence but I do on its international comparison table (I was curious)
a) Belgium: 7 vaccines mandatory for <3 childcare (widely used) in its French-speaking part (~40% pop):
one.be/public/0-1-a...
1/
a) Belgium: 7 vaccines mandatory for <3 childcare (widely used) in its French-speaking part (~40% pop):
one.be/public/0-1-a...
1/
As the evergreen "covid vaccine cause cancer, the evidence is overwhelming" is popping up again, for no reason, here a chart of monthly deaths by key causes data for Spain that I found on the site of INE (Statistics Spain)
January 4, 2026 at 1:46 PM
As the evergreen "covid vaccine cause cancer, the evidence is overwhelming" is popping up again, for no reason, here a chart of monthly deaths by key causes data for Spain that I found on the site of INE (Statistics Spain)
There has been a resurgence of charts showing an increase of population 16+ with a disability in the US with the message "it's the vaccines"
Here is the data: The "return to an increase" started in October 2020 ... so how can it be the vaccines?🤔
Here is the data: The "return to an increase" started in October 2020 ... so how can it be the vaccines?🤔
January 4, 2026 at 9:38 AM
There has been a resurgence of charts showing an increase of population 16+ with a disability in the US with the message "it's the vaccines"
Here is the data: The "return to an increase" started in October 2020 ... so how can it be the vaccines?🤔
Here is the data: The "return to an increase" started in October 2020 ... so how can it be the vaccines?🤔
Annual mortality review season is starting as Portugal provided estimates up to 2025w52
PT saw some some excess (vs PRE-PANDEMIC trends)
/ essentially from heat last summer
/ a little from covid (early autumn)
/ None from flu
(you will find a few Explanatory comments below⤵️)
PT saw some some excess (vs PRE-PANDEMIC trends)
/ essentially from heat last summer
/ a little from covid (early autumn)
/ None from flu
(you will find a few Explanatory comments below⤵️)
January 3, 2026 at 8:12 AM
Annual mortality review season is starting as Portugal provided estimates up to 2025w52
PT saw some some excess (vs PRE-PANDEMIC trends)
/ essentially from heat last summer
/ a little from covid (early autumn)
/ None from flu
(you will find a few Explanatory comments below⤵️)
PT saw some some excess (vs PRE-PANDEMIC trends)
/ essentially from heat last summer
/ a little from covid (early autumn)
/ None from flu
(you will find a few Explanatory comments below⤵️)
This great simple study looked at the nature of the increase in autism prevalence from 2000 to 2016 and found that it's essentially driven by changes in definition and diagnosis intensity
So, put bluntly, raw autism prevalence is an indicator of nothing useful for public health
So, put bluntly, raw autism prevalence is an indicator of nothing useful for public health
January 1, 2026 at 7:23 AM
This great simple study looked at the nature of the increase in autism prevalence from 2000 to 2016 and found that it's essentially driven by changes in definition and diagnosis intensity
So, put bluntly, raw autism prevalence is an indicator of nothing useful for public health
So, put bluntly, raw autism prevalence is an indicator of nothing useful for public health
There is a great way to identify charlatans today: Anyone posting about the death of JFK's granddaughter, vaccines, and no data
So in case you wonder, I took the time to extract the mortality rate trend by age of her rare but devastating illness
A clear vaccine signal ...🙄
So in case you wonder, I took the time to extract the mortality rate trend by age of her rare but devastating illness
A clear vaccine signal ...🙄
December 31, 2025 at 12:04 PM
There is a great way to identify charlatans today: Anyone posting about the death of JFK's granddaughter, vaccines, and no data
So in case you wonder, I took the time to extract the mortality rate trend by age of her rare but devastating illness
A clear vaccine signal ...🙄
So in case you wonder, I took the time to extract the mortality rate trend by age of her rare but devastating illness
A clear vaccine signal ...🙄
Just a reminder: Covid was a disease with a 1% IFR across western Europe in 2020
I mention this because all alternatives on how we should have managed the pandemic basically rely on bitching that by wild claims: PCR is rubbish, doctors were paid to say death was covid, etc.
I mention this because all alternatives on how we should have managed the pandemic basically rely on bitching that by wild claims: PCR is rubbish, doctors were paid to say death was covid, etc.
I did the following:
- I took the sera studies for West Europe (incl DE/FR/SP/IT/PT/AT ...) which were considered as good by Ioannidis in his seminal paper on IFR from 2023
- I matched that with the info I have on covid deaths per certificate
Result? Covid IFR was >1% in Western Europe in 2020
- I took the sera studies for West Europe (incl DE/FR/SP/IT/PT/AT ...) which were considered as good by Ioannidis in his seminal paper on IFR from 2023
- I matched that with the info I have on covid deaths per certificate
Result? Covid IFR was >1% in Western Europe in 2020
December 24, 2025 at 8:26 AM
Just a reminder: Covid was a disease with a 1% IFR across western Europe in 2020
I mention this because all alternatives on how we should have managed the pandemic basically rely on bitching that by wild claims: PCR is rubbish, doctors were paid to say death was covid, etc.
I mention this because all alternatives on how we should have managed the pandemic basically rely on bitching that by wild claims: PCR is rubbish, doctors were paid to say death was covid, etc.
One never ceases to learn: Per this CDC memo, death certificates in the US contain no ICD-10 coding just plain text
It is CDC which semi-automatically assigns ICD-10 codes based on the free-formatted text
So it's a guestimate (in my words)
Source: ncvhs.hhs.gov/wp-content/u...
It is CDC which semi-automatically assigns ICD-10 codes based on the free-formatted text
So it's a guestimate (in my words)
Source: ncvhs.hhs.gov/wp-content/u...
December 23, 2025 at 2:43 PM
One never ceases to learn: Per this CDC memo, death certificates in the US contain no ICD-10 coding just plain text
It is CDC which semi-automatically assigns ICD-10 codes based on the free-formatted text
So it's a guestimate (in my words)
Source: ncvhs.hhs.gov/wp-content/u...
It is CDC which semi-automatically assigns ICD-10 codes based on the free-formatted text
So it's a guestimate (in my words)
Source: ncvhs.hhs.gov/wp-content/u...
Naive question after the 100th post"if vaccines are safe, why does the government give immunity to manufacturers against law suits for side effects?"
a) Is this true? In the US or also in Europe?
b) If true, what is the rationale?
Thanks in advance for any input!
a) Is this true? In the US or also in Europe?
b) If true, what is the rationale?
Thanks in advance for any input!
December 23, 2025 at 9:02 AM
Naive question after the 100th post"if vaccines are safe, why does the government give immunity to manufacturers against law suits for side effects?"
a) Is this true? In the US or also in Europe?
b) If true, what is the rationale?
Thanks in advance for any input!
a) Is this true? In the US or also in Europe?
b) If true, what is the rationale?
Thanks in advance for any input!
US acute renal failure (N17) deaths: What drives them?
a) The cause plays an increasing role in respiratory related deaths (typical given comorbidity driven)
b) But there is an increase beyond respiratory (in 2020/21) and flat since
AND: 20% (!) of all US deaths have it now on the certificate
a) The cause plays an increasing role in respiratory related deaths (typical given comorbidity driven)
b) But there is an increase beyond respiratory (in 2020/21) and flat since
AND: 20% (!) of all US deaths have it now on the certificate
December 22, 2025 at 8:40 PM
US acute renal failure (N17) deaths: What drives them?
a) The cause plays an increasing role in respiratory related deaths (typical given comorbidity driven)
b) But there is an increase beyond respiratory (in 2020/21) and flat since
AND: 20% (!) of all US deaths have it now on the certificate
a) The cause plays an increasing role in respiratory related deaths (typical given comorbidity driven)
b) But there is an increase beyond respiratory (in 2020/21) and flat since
AND: 20% (!) of all US deaths have it now on the certificate
Some want to link the increase of acute kidney failure deaths to C19 vaccines in the US despite
- The increase starting before vaccines (and much so in the 25-44)
- The impact being highest in the (lower vax) age groups (25-44)
hmmm....
(deaths here are "involving N17 but excl covid")
- The increase starting before vaccines (and much so in the 25-44)
- The impact being highest in the (lower vax) age groups (25-44)
hmmm....
(deaths here are "involving N17 but excl covid")
December 21, 2025 at 3:48 PM
Some want to link the increase of acute kidney failure deaths to C19 vaccines in the US despite
- The increase starting before vaccines (and much so in the 25-44)
- The impact being highest in the (lower vax) age groups (25-44)
hmmm....
(deaths here are "involving N17 but excl covid")
- The increase starting before vaccines (and much so in the 25-44)
- The impact being highest in the (lower vax) age groups (25-44)
hmmm....
(deaths here are "involving N17 but excl covid")
Sigh ... This Dutch study "found" a higher risk of reactivating the shingles virus after dose 3
Any negative controls to see if unvaxed and vaxed groups are not structurally different?
Nah, let's just ignore all existing studies and assume the residual bias does not exist🙄
1/
Any negative controls to see if unvaxed and vaxed groups are not structurally different?
Nah, let's just ignore all existing studies and assume the residual bias does not exist🙄
1/
December 18, 2025 at 5:06 PM
Sigh ... This Dutch study "found" a higher risk of reactivating the shingles virus after dose 3
Any negative controls to see if unvaxed and vaxed groups are not structurally different?
Nah, let's just ignore all existing studies and assume the residual bias does not exist🙄
1/
Any negative controls to see if unvaxed and vaxed groups are not structurally different?
Nah, let's just ignore all existing studies and assume the residual bias does not exist🙄
1/
(non-sentinel) covid positivity rate for countries in Western Europe which still share that data
It's interesting how the pattern was so different in 2025
(note: forget reading ANYTHING into absolute values as testing is not standardized, far from it)
It's interesting how the pattern was so different in 2025
(note: forget reading ANYTHING into absolute values as testing is not standardized, far from it)
December 18, 2025 at 4:29 PM
(non-sentinel) covid positivity rate for countries in Western Europe which still share that data
It's interesting how the pattern was so different in 2025
(note: forget reading ANYTHING into absolute values as testing is not standardized, far from it)
It's interesting how the pattern was so different in 2025
(note: forget reading ANYTHING into absolute values as testing is not standardized, far from it)
The next mortality update for England and Wales will not be for another three weeks but it's clear that 2025 saw the lowest mortality rates ever, even lower than 2024
When looking at occurrences, in fact, both 2024 and 2025 are significantly lower than any year before
When looking at occurrences, in fact, both 2024 and 2025 are significantly lower than any year before
December 17, 2025 at 10:18 AM
The next mortality update for England and Wales will not be for another three weeks but it's clear that 2025 saw the lowest mortality rates ever, even lower than 2024
When looking at occurrences, in fact, both 2024 and 2025 are significantly lower than any year before
When looking at occurrences, in fact, both 2024 and 2025 are significantly lower than any year before
I continue to see huge and credible accounts relaying the claim made by a study in France that they found no increase in mortality among the vaccinated
A reminder that this is an incorrect claim: The study cannot conclude on this (see below)
(It's astonishing that this passed @jama.com's review)
A reminder that this is an incorrect claim: The study cannot conclude on this (see below)
(It's astonishing that this passed @jama.com's review)
Quick warning: The @epiphare.bsky.social study on vax/unvaxed mortality in France is very interesting
However, it does not show "covid vax does not increase mortality" as claimed by its president
For that, one would need to know the relationship of mortality BEFORE VAX and this is not available
However, it does not show "covid vax does not increase mortality" as claimed by its president
For that, one would need to know the relationship of mortality BEFORE VAX and this is not available
December 17, 2025 at 7:54 AM
I continue to see huge and credible accounts relaying the claim made by a study in France that they found no increase in mortality among the vaccinated
A reminder that this is an incorrect claim: The study cannot conclude on this (see below)
(It's astonishing that this passed @jama.com's review)
A reminder that this is an incorrect claim: The study cannot conclude on this (see below)
(It's astonishing that this passed @jama.com's review)
You may see reposts of this study pass your timeline where the authors claim "full data of Emilia-Romagna shows death signal among covid vaccinated shortly after vaccination"
Much to my surprise, the signal is not real but resulting, among other, from an analytical error!
1/
Much to my surprise, the signal is not real but resulting, among other, from an analytical error!
1/
December 14, 2025 at 3:40 PM
You may see reposts of this study pass your timeline where the authors claim "full data of Emilia-Romagna shows death signal among covid vaccinated shortly after vaccination"
Much to my surprise, the signal is not real but resulting, among other, from an analytical error!
1/
Much to my surprise, the signal is not real but resulting, among other, from an analytical error!
1/