Jean Fisch
@jeanfisch.bsky.social
Analysis, rationalism & objectivity are my sins
So, in summary:
- There has never been any significant signal in the English data of topline excess not explained by covid, flu or heat
- And there still isn't, even if a newspaper asks the question again
END
- There has never been any significant signal in the English data of topline excess not explained by covid, flu or heat
- And there still isn't, even if a newspaper asks the question again
END
November 16, 2025 at 8:49 AM
So, in summary:
- There has never been any significant signal in the English data of topline excess not explained by covid, flu or heat
- And there still isn't, even if a newspaper asks the question again
END
- There has never been any significant signal in the English data of topline excess not explained by covid, flu or heat
- And there still isn't, even if a newspaper asks the question again
END
In fact, ONS was the 1st stats office to release mortality data by vax status and it is thanks to that data that these biases from vaccination status emerged
(look at 2021-2022 where unvaxed have higher all-cause mortality here but there are other biases at more granular level)
5/
(look at 2021-2022 where unvaxed have higher all-cause mortality here but there are other biases at more granular level)
5/
November 16, 2025 at 8:48 AM
In fact, ONS was the 1st stats office to release mortality data by vax status and it is thanks to that data that these biases from vaccination status emerged
(look at 2021-2022 where unvaxed have higher all-cause mortality here but there are other biases at more granular level)
5/
(look at 2021-2022 where unvaxed have higher all-cause mortality here but there are other biases at more granular level)
5/
Sigh... "Could vaccines have caused big excess in England?" is brought up again by a British newspaper
So here is how excess looks like vs expected from pre-pandemic mortality trend once you account for covid, flu & heat
So the answer is known: "No the vaccines could not"
1/
So here is how excess looks like vs expected from pre-pandemic mortality trend once you account for covid, flu & heat
So the answer is known: "No the vaccines could not"
1/
November 16, 2025 at 8:45 AM
Sigh... "Could vaccines have caused big excess in England?" is brought up again by a British newspaper
So here is how excess looks like vs expected from pre-pandemic mortality trend once you account for covid, flu & heat
So the answer is known: "No the vaccines could not"
1/
So here is how excess looks like vs expected from pre-pandemic mortality trend once you account for covid, flu & heat
So the answer is known: "No the vaccines could not"
1/
I missed this interesting paper: Swedish pharma-surveillance scientists reviewed the 456 reports of suspected fatality post vax in Sweden
They found 10 with clear vaccine link (amounting to the famous X per million also found elsewhere)
1/
They found 10 with clear vaccine link (amounting to the famous X per million also found elsewhere)
1/
November 14, 2025 at 4:47 PM
I missed this interesting paper: Swedish pharma-surveillance scientists reviewed the 456 reports of suspected fatality post vax in Sweden
They found 10 with clear vaccine link (amounting to the famous X per million also found elsewhere)
1/
They found 10 with clear vaccine link (amounting to the famous X per million also found elsewhere)
1/
Another interesting thing is that waves are clearly bi-annual there and it looks as if this will continue this summer there (as there is a very small uptick)
This is not the pattern in western Europe (where it looks that covid is highly prevalent late summer / early-mid autumn)
This is not the pattern in western Europe (where it looks that covid is highly prevalent late summer / early-mid autumn)
November 14, 2025 at 7:11 AM
Another interesting thing is that waves are clearly bi-annual there and it looks as if this will continue this summer there (as there is a very small uptick)
This is not the pattern in western Europe (where it looks that covid is highly prevalent late summer / early-mid autumn)
This is not the pattern in western Europe (where it looks that covid is highly prevalent late summer / early-mid autumn)
Also in Australia, covid cases, ICU and deaths evolve in sync with the expected delay of a week between each state
Interestingly, the "in hospital" data (stopped end of 2023) never showed the "lows" of the other indicators
This smells of significant in-hospital infections
Interestingly, the "in hospital" data (stopped end of 2023) never showed the "lows" of the other indicators
This smells of significant in-hospital infections
November 14, 2025 at 7:07 AM
Also in Australia, covid cases, ICU and deaths evolve in sync with the expected delay of a week between each state
Interestingly, the "in hospital" data (stopped end of 2023) never showed the "lows" of the other indicators
This smells of significant in-hospital infections
Interestingly, the "in hospital" data (stopped end of 2023) never showed the "lows" of the other indicators
This smells of significant in-hospital infections
Covid is now clearly on a downward path in England too
(I remain full of admiration if this were to be the result of dark forces faking the presence of virus: Remember, this requires to phase the peaks with 7 days between cases, admissions and deaths and this across the whole health sector!)
(I remain full of admiration if this were to be the result of dark forces faking the presence of virus: Remember, this requires to phase the peaks with 7 days between cases, admissions and deaths and this across the whole health sector!)
November 13, 2025 at 11:26 AM
Covid is now clearly on a downward path in England too
(I remain full of admiration if this were to be the result of dark forces faking the presence of virus: Remember, this requires to phase the peaks with 7 days between cases, admissions and deaths and this across the whole health sector!)
(I remain full of admiration if this were to be the result of dark forces faking the presence of virus: Remember, this requires to phase the peaks with 7 days between cases, admissions and deaths and this across the whole health sector!)
The illusion of a virus continues to be carried out to perfection in Germany:
- the personnel in the dozens of labs who establish + cases
- the nurses / doctors who report covid cases in hospitals
- the deaths registrars
managed to fake another synchronized downturn of covid
😀
- the personnel in the dozens of labs who establish + cases
- the nurses / doctors who report covid cases in hospitals
- the deaths registrars
managed to fake another synchronized downturn of covid
😀
November 11, 2025 at 12:04 PM
The illusion of a virus continues to be carried out to perfection in Germany:
- the personnel in the dozens of labs who establish + cases
- the nurses / doctors who report covid cases in hospitals
- the deaths registrars
managed to fake another synchronized downturn of covid
😀
- the personnel in the dozens of labs who establish + cases
- the nurses / doctors who report covid cases in hospitals
- the deaths registrars
managed to fake another synchronized downturn of covid
😀
c) The study does not explain why it's ok to use non-concordant periods for comparison
It took cases from Jan 20 to Mar 22 and vax from Aug 21 to Dec 21 There may be a good statistical reason but it escapes me (and no explanation is offered)
3/
It took cases from Jan 20 to Mar 22 and vax from Aug 21 to Dec 21 There may be a good statistical reason but it escapes me (and no explanation is offered)
3/
November 5, 2025 at 10:20 AM
c) The study does not explain why it's ok to use non-concordant periods for comparison
It took cases from Jan 20 to Mar 22 and vax from Aug 21 to Dec 21 There may be a good statistical reason but it escapes me (and no explanation is offered)
3/
It took cases from Jan 20 to Mar 22 and vax from Aug 21 to Dec 21 There may be a good statistical reason but it escapes me (and no explanation is offered)
3/
I am perplexed by this major new study of NHS England data among children on multiple accounts
a) It writes "risk is higher 12 months after infx than 4wks after vax" without showing that this comparison is meaningful (ie risk 12m after infx is linked to infx, not vax)
1/
a) It writes "risk is higher 12 months after infx than 4wks after vax" without showing that this comparison is meaningful (ie risk 12m after infx is linked to infx, not vax)
1/
November 5, 2025 at 10:19 AM
I am perplexed by this major new study of NHS England data among children on multiple accounts
a) It writes "risk is higher 12 months after infx than 4wks after vax" without showing that this comparison is meaningful (ie risk 12m after infx is linked to infx, not vax)
1/
a) It writes "risk is higher 12 months after infx than 4wks after vax" without showing that this comparison is meaningful (ie risk 12m after infx is linked to infx, not vax)
1/
What is also remarkable is that, despite correcting for all “visible” confounders, the unvaccinated still show higher mortality rates across the board
8/
8/
November 2, 2025 at 9:50 AM
What is also remarkable is that, despite correcting for all “visible” confounders, the unvaccinated still show higher mortality rates across the board
8/
8/
Now, you may think "maybe these differences are for real and induced by vaccines"
So I had a look at the age-standardized incidence of 60+ for melanoma in Denmark
The study finds a 3x higher incidence among vaxed, yet there is nothing visible at population level
6/
So I had a look at the age-standardized incidence of 60+ for melanoma in Denmark
The study finds a 3x higher incidence among vaxed, yet there is nothing visible at population level
6/
November 2, 2025 at 9:49 AM
Now, you may think "maybe these differences are for real and induced by vaccines"
So I had a look at the age-standardized incidence of 60+ for melanoma in Denmark
The study finds a 3x higher incidence among vaxed, yet there is nothing visible at population level
6/
So I had a look at the age-standardized incidence of 60+ for melanoma in Denmark
The study finds a 3x higher incidence among vaxed, yet there is nothing visible at population level
6/
And despite this, the study found huge differences in all sorts of factors including
- positive covid cases
- cancer diagnoses
but also simply screening diagnoses
(remember, Denmark has all this info available via its national health system)
5/
- positive covid cases
- cancer diagnoses
but also simply screening diagnoses
(remember, Denmark has all this info available via its national health system)
5/
November 2, 2025 at 9:49 AM
And despite this, the study found huge differences in all sorts of factors including
- positive covid cases
- cancer diagnoses
but also simply screening diagnoses
(remember, Denmark has all this info available via its national health system)
5/
- positive covid cases
- cancer diagnoses
but also simply screening diagnoses
(remember, Denmark has all this info available via its national health system)
5/
We know from the Dutch and English ASMR analyses that we should see a residual "healthy vaccinee effect" on mortality because vaxed are more healthy
What this study did more is to correct this by matching pairs for comorbidity, medical visits and place of residence
4/
What this study did more is to correct this by matching pairs for comorbidity, medical visits and place of residence
4/
November 2, 2025 at 9:49 AM
We know from the Dutch and English ASMR analyses that we should see a residual "healthy vaccinee effect" on mortality because vaxed are more healthy
What this study did more is to correct this by matching pairs for comorbidity, medical visits and place of residence
4/
What this study did more is to correct this by matching pairs for comorbidity, medical visits and place of residence
4/
This study looked at the full Danish population aged 60-90 and compared people vaccinated between Mar 1 to Jun 30, 2021 and those who weren't
They then compared the life events of these groups post June 30, 2021
Link: dovepress.com/confounding-...
2/
They then compared the life events of these groups post June 30, 2021
Link: dovepress.com/confounding-...
2/
November 2, 2025 at 9:48 AM
This study looked at the full Danish population aged 60-90 and compared people vaccinated between Mar 1 to Jun 30, 2021 and those who weren't
They then compared the life events of these groups post June 30, 2021
Link: dovepress.com/confounding-...
2/
They then compared the life events of these groups post June 30, 2021
Link: dovepress.com/confounding-...
2/
The healthy vaccinee effect runs deeper than we may think
What this full national Danish study shows is that a huge effect remains even after correcting for age, sex, comorbidity, medical visits and place of residence
The "unvaccinated by choice" test less (and die earlier)
1/
What this full national Danish study shows is that a huge effect remains even after correcting for age, sex, comorbidity, medical visits and place of residence
The "unvaccinated by choice" test less (and die earlier)
1/
November 2, 2025 at 9:47 AM
The healthy vaccinee effect runs deeper than we may think
What this full national Danish study shows is that a huge effect remains even after correcting for age, sex, comorbidity, medical visits and place of residence
The "unvaccinated by choice" test less (and die earlier)
1/
What this full national Danish study shows is that a huge effect remains even after correcting for age, sex, comorbidity, medical visits and place of residence
The "unvaccinated by choice" test less (and die earlier)
1/
The study looked at a large part of Korea's pop (much of Seoul)
But the consolidated data for Korea shows no elevated cancer rate in 2022
You should see one if vaccines was the cause as suggested by the study (because 90% are vaxed)
So it was clear the study had a problem
2/
But the consolidated data for Korea shows no elevated cancer rate in 2022
You should see one if vaccines was the cause as suggested by the study (because 90% are vaxed)
So it was clear the study had a problem
2/
October 26, 2025 at 11:45 AM
The study looked at a large part of Korea's pop (much of Seoul)
But the consolidated data for Korea shows no elevated cancer rate in 2022
You should see one if vaccines was the cause as suggested by the study (because 90% are vaxed)
So it was clear the study had a problem
2/
But the consolidated data for Korea shows no elevated cancer rate in 2022
You should see one if vaccines was the cause as suggested by the study (because 90% are vaxed)
So it was clear the study had a problem
2/
I just see that the Korean study that found higher cancer rates among vaccinated is being reviewed
Some may scream "censorship" but this is as clear a case of something gone wrong (and in good faith) as it gets
In fact one look at the official data would have raised the alarm
1/
Some may scream "censorship" but this is as clear a case of something gone wrong (and in good faith) as it gets
In fact one look at the official data would have raised the alarm
1/
October 26, 2025 at 11:44 AM
I just see that the Korean study that found higher cancer rates among vaccinated is being reviewed
Some may scream "censorship" but this is as clear a case of something gone wrong (and in good faith) as it gets
In fact one look at the official data would have raised the alarm
1/
Some may scream "censorship" but this is as clear a case of something gone wrong (and in good faith) as it gets
In fact one look at the official data would have raised the alarm
1/
The public opinion is always right! (here in the UK)
- Jan 21: it was against reopening schools
- Oct 25: it thinks that school closure did more harm than good
(interestingly, the young believe closing schools did more GOOD than harm / it's the old which are of the opposite opinion)
- Jan 21: it was against reopening schools
- Oct 25: it thinks that school closure did more harm than good
(interestingly, the young believe closing schools did more GOOD than harm / it's the old which are of the opposite opinion)
October 22, 2025 at 11:13 AM
The public opinion is always right! (here in the UK)
- Jan 21: it was against reopening schools
- Oct 25: it thinks that school closure did more harm than good
(interestingly, the young believe closing schools did more GOOD than harm / it's the old which are of the opposite opinion)
- Jan 21: it was against reopening schools
- Oct 25: it thinks that school closure did more harm than good
(interestingly, the young believe closing schools did more GOOD than harm / it's the old which are of the opposite opinion)
Just your regular reminder that UK mortality analysis on young people / external causes based on registrations are MATERIALLY distorted
(look here for suicides: the real trend is flat not growing)
The issue? ONS generally provides death data series based on registrations only
(look here for suicides: the real trend is flat not growing)
The issue? ONS generally provides death data series based on registrations only
October 21, 2025 at 9:48 AM
Just your regular reminder that UK mortality analysis on young people / external causes based on registrations are MATERIALLY distorted
(look here for suicides: the real trend is flat not growing)
The issue? ONS generally provides death data series based on registrations only
(look here for suicides: the real trend is flat not growing)
The issue? ONS generally provides death data series based on registrations only
The Dutch Statistics Office updated its dataset of monthly deaths by cause based on death certificates this morning
Here is the devastating impact of turbo cancer for everyone to see
Here is the devastating impact of turbo cancer for everyone to see
October 17, 2025 at 10:42 AM
The Dutch Statistics Office updated its dataset of monthly deaths by cause based on death certificates this morning
Here is the devastating impact of turbo cancer for everyone to see
Here is the devastating impact of turbo cancer for everyone to see
Indeed, good point: Here a chart / you are higher except for 22/23 where we come to the same result
FWIW, your's is a bit closer to the flu burden as calculated by CDC pre-pandemic ... and a bit lower during the pandemic year
Let's call that a draw? :-)
(just kidding of course!)
FWIW, your's is a bit closer to the flu burden as calculated by CDC pre-pandemic ... and a bit lower during the pandemic year
Let's call that a draw? :-)
(just kidding of course!)
October 15, 2025 at 7:45 AM
Indeed, good point: Here a chart / you are higher except for 22/23 where we come to the same result
FWIW, your's is a bit closer to the flu burden as calculated by CDC pre-pandemic ... and a bit lower during the pandemic year
Let's call that a draw? :-)
(just kidding of course!)
FWIW, your's is a bit closer to the flu burden as calculated by CDC pre-pandemic ... and a bit lower during the pandemic year
Let's call that a draw? :-)
(just kidding of course!)
Interesting, I did something similar but used the "MOMO" approach ie
- fit a sinusoid onto spring / autumn values
- highlight winter deaths (excl covid) beyond expected in high ILI weeks
It's a simple way to estimate flu deaths (the data is confounded as it also includes cold and RSV deaths)
- fit a sinusoid onto spring / autumn values
- highlight winter deaths (excl covid) beyond expected in high ILI weeks
It's a simple way to estimate flu deaths (the data is confounded as it also includes cold and RSV deaths)
October 14, 2025 at 9:05 PM
Interesting, I did something similar but used the "MOMO" approach ie
- fit a sinusoid onto spring / autumn values
- highlight winter deaths (excl covid) beyond expected in high ILI weeks
It's a simple way to estimate flu deaths (the data is confounded as it also includes cold and RSV deaths)
- fit a sinusoid onto spring / autumn values
- highlight winter deaths (excl covid) beyond expected in high ILI weeks
It's a simple way to estimate flu deaths (the data is confounded as it also includes cold and RSV deaths)
Today's UK covid inquiry's hearing included something I was not aware so far
A memo of 25/2/20 by UK's advisory group mentions that school closures in South-East Asia show a significant transmission impact
1/
A memo of 25/2/20 by UK's advisory group mentions that school closures in South-East Asia show a significant transmission impact
1/
October 14, 2025 at 11:43 AM
Today's UK covid inquiry's hearing included something I was not aware so far
A memo of 25/2/20 by UK's advisory group mentions that school closures in South-East Asia show a significant transmission impact
1/
A memo of 25/2/20 by UK's advisory group mentions that school closures in South-East Asia show a significant transmission impact
1/
Forget the absolute levels on this chart: Testing levels and focus have changed wildly over time
But the "ups and downs" are a valid information and it shows how, suddenly covid waves
a) became much more in sync (2024)
b) seem to move to an annual pattern (2025) in west Europe
But the "ups and downs" are a valid information and it shows how, suddenly covid waves
a) became much more in sync (2024)
b) seem to move to an annual pattern (2025) in west Europe
October 14, 2025 at 10:50 AM
Forget the absolute levels on this chart: Testing levels and focus have changed wildly over time
But the "ups and downs" are a valid information and it shows how, suddenly covid waves
a) became much more in sync (2024)
b) seem to move to an annual pattern (2025) in west Europe
But the "ups and downs" are a valid information and it shows how, suddenly covid waves
a) became much more in sync (2024)
b) seem to move to an annual pattern (2025) in west Europe