Reposted by Ian Mulheirn
Late to this important & nicely nuanced @resfoundation.bsky.social report on the future of the pension settlement 20 years after the Turner report.
Great work by @mollybroome.bsky.social & @ianmulheirn.bsky.social
www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
Great work by @mollybroome.bsky.social & @ianmulheirn.bsky.social
www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
Perfectly adequate? • Resolution Foundation
In 2002, the Labour Government established the Pensions Commission to review the UK’s private pensions system and make recommendations for reform. Twenty years on from the Commission’s landmark first ...
www.resolutionfoundation.org
October 16, 2024 at 8:53 AM
Late to this important & nicely nuanced @resfoundation.bsky.social report on the future of the pension settlement 20 years after the Turner report.
Great work by @mollybroome.bsky.social & @ianmulheirn.bsky.social
www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
Great work by @mollybroome.bsky.social & @ianmulheirn.bsky.social
www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
‘China’s export boom can hardly be called protectionist’.
Wonder whether @michaelpettis.bsky.social would agree with this description in this weekend’s FT leader
Wonder whether @michaelpettis.bsky.social would agree with this description in this weekend’s FT leader
April 28, 2024 at 8:55 AM
‘China’s export boom can hardly be called protectionist’.
Wonder whether @michaelpettis.bsky.social would agree with this description in this weekend’s FT leader
Wonder whether @michaelpettis.bsky.social would agree with this description in this weekend’s FT leader
This pic from Obstfeld's recent NBER paper captures what I meant about the impact of savings policy on the current account deficit @curr.bsky.social (also of interest @johnspringford.bsky.social). If shift the savings schedule out in 'home', r drops, CA imbalance disappears
April 3, 2024 at 1:58 PM
This pic from Obstfeld's recent NBER paper captures what I meant about the impact of savings policy on the current account deficit @curr.bsky.social (also of interest @johnspringford.bsky.social). If shift the savings schedule out in 'home', r drops, CA imbalance disappears
I'm sure it need fixing, but this housing story would be much less exciting if it mentioned the actual rate of household growth this century (c.150k/yr) and ONS projections of 160k/yr
At roughly 220k/yr, net additions have far exceeded those rates over the past decade
www.ft.com/content/1977...
At roughly 220k/yr, net additions have far exceeded those rates over the past decade
www.ft.com/content/1977...
January 3, 2024 at 12:29 PM
I'm sure it need fixing, but this housing story would be much less exciting if it mentioned the actual rate of household growth this century (c.150k/yr) and ONS projections of 160k/yr
At roughly 220k/yr, net additions have far exceeded those rates over the past decade
www.ft.com/content/1977...
At roughly 220k/yr, net additions have far exceeded those rates over the past decade
www.ft.com/content/1977...
Reposted by Ian Mulheirn
My latest bit for the Observer - why the Tories' hardline immigration policies won't win over British voters
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
Why the Tories’ hardline immigration policies won’t win over UK voters
Visa changes may cut numbers of students and skilled workers who enjoy public support while Rwanda plan won’t address concerns over small boats
www.theguardian.com
December 9, 2023 at 4:45 PM
My latest bit for the Observer - why the Tories' hardline immigration policies won't win over British voters
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
NEW: Generation Rent's new rent forecast is just out on ITV news
We show that rents are likely to rise more than 14% above next April's Local Housing Allowance levels within just 18 months, taking affordability back to current unsustainable levels
www.itv.com/news/2023-12...
We show that rents are likely to rise more than 14% above next April's Local Housing Allowance levels within just 18 months, taking affordability back to current unsustainable levels
www.itv.com/news/2023-12...
December 8, 2023 at 2:19 PM
NEW: Generation Rent's new rent forecast is just out on ITV news
We show that rents are likely to rise more than 14% above next April's Local Housing Allowance levels within just 18 months, taking affordability back to current unsustainable levels
www.itv.com/news/2023-12...
We show that rents are likely to rise more than 14% above next April's Local Housing Allowance levels within just 18 months, taking affordability back to current unsustainable levels
www.itv.com/news/2023-12...
This is very good
In response to Mike Bird’s question here I posted this thread on the other place. Just copying here as well
December 3, 2023 at 10:03 PM
This is very good
Reposted by Ian Mulheirn
There's big politics here. If the OBR were to downgrade potential output growth by 0.1% from the current 1.6% that would take about £10bn off the chancellor's fiscal headroom.
If they were to split the difference with the Bank's view of 0.7-0.8%, the Budget would be *very* difficult
If they were to split the difference with the Bank's view of 0.7-0.8%, the Budget would be *very* difficult
December 2, 2023 at 2:46 PM
There's big politics here. If the OBR were to downgrade potential output growth by 0.1% from the current 1.6% that would take about £10bn off the chancellor's fiscal headroom.
If they were to split the difference with the Bank's view of 0.7-0.8%, the Budget would be *very* difficult
If they were to split the difference with the Bank's view of 0.7-0.8%, the Budget would be *very* difficult
Reposted by Ian Mulheirn
V good. If the OBR decide they were too optimistic in time for the March budget then Sunak and Hunt will have a real (self-imposed) problem.
What happens when one of your official forecasters is systematically optimistic and the other pessimistic about growth? Bad stuff.
My blog argues we have lopsided macroeconomic policy because the Bank and OBR disagree - leading to lower growth and higher debt than we would have if they agreed.
My blog argues we have lopsided macroeconomic policy because the Bank and OBR disagree - leading to lower growth and higher debt than we would have if they agreed.
Lopsided macroeconomic policy
A combination of OBR optimism and Bank pessimism on the outlook for the economy is screwing up macroeconomic policy
medium.com
December 2, 2023 at 3:09 PM
V good. If the OBR decide they were too optimistic in time for the March budget then Sunak and Hunt will have a real (self-imposed) problem.
What happens when one of your official forecasters is systematically optimistic and the other pessimistic about growth? Bad stuff.
My blog argues we have lopsided macroeconomic policy because the Bank and OBR disagree - leading to lower growth and higher debt than we would have if they agreed.
My blog argues we have lopsided macroeconomic policy because the Bank and OBR disagree - leading to lower growth and higher debt than we would have if they agreed.
Lopsided macroeconomic policy
A combination of OBR optimism and Bank pessimism on the outlook for the economy is screwing up macroeconomic policy
medium.com
December 2, 2023 at 2:40 PM
What happens when one of your official forecasters is systematically optimistic and the other pessimistic about growth? Bad stuff.
My blog argues we have lopsided macroeconomic policy because the Bank and OBR disagree - leading to lower growth and higher debt than we would have if they agreed.
My blog argues we have lopsided macroeconomic policy because the Bank and OBR disagree - leading to lower growth and higher debt than we would have if they agreed.
Reposted by Ian Mulheirn
This is a very good piece by @ianmulheirn.bsky.social - on how the very different Bank (pessimistic) and OBR (optimistic) forecasts of economic growth are a problem.
Quick thread…
medium.com/@ian.mulheir...
Quick thread…
medium.com/@ian.mulheir...
Lopsided macroeconomic policy
A combination of OBR optimism and Bank pessimism on the outlook for the economy is screwing up macroeconomic policy
medium.com
December 2, 2023 at 10:00 AM
This is a very good piece by @ianmulheirn.bsky.social - on how the very different Bank (pessimistic) and OBR (optimistic) forecasts of economic growth are a problem.
Quick thread…
medium.com/@ian.mulheir...
Quick thread…
medium.com/@ian.mulheir...
Autumn Statement press reports told us headroom increased from 1st to final versions of the forecast from roughly -£20bn to +£30bn
What caused the shift? Gilt yields fairly steady since late summer. Was it upward revisions to the inflation forecast? Something else?
What caused the shift? Gilt yields fairly steady since late summer. Was it upward revisions to the inflation forecast? Something else?
November 30, 2023 at 8:42 AM
Autumn Statement press reports told us headroom increased from 1st to final versions of the forecast from roughly -£20bn to +£30bn
What caused the shift? Gilt yields fairly steady since late summer. Was it upward revisions to the inflation forecast? Something else?
What caused the shift? Gilt yields fairly steady since late summer. Was it upward revisions to the inflation forecast? Something else?
Great stuff from @rafaelbehr.bsky.social
Big picture is that 13 years’ economic stagnation has destroyed the centre right. Now set for a fight between radical econ liberals, nativists and fatalists
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
Big picture is that 13 years’ economic stagnation has destroyed the centre right. Now set for a fight between radical econ liberals, nativists and fatalists
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
November 29, 2023 at 5:32 PM
Great stuff from @rafaelbehr.bsky.social
Big picture is that 13 years’ economic stagnation has destroyed the centre right. Now set for a fight between radical econ liberals, nativists and fatalists
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
Big picture is that 13 years’ economic stagnation has destroyed the centre right. Now set for a fight between radical econ liberals, nativists and fatalists
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
Immigration and housing is political 🧨
There's been some hyperbole about today's +670k immigration and housing costs. But DONT PANIC! Here's why:
1st look at the past 24 years. Generally population has grown slower than housing stock. Houses per person are +2.7% over 2000-22
There's been some hyperbole about today's +670k immigration and housing costs. But DONT PANIC! Here's why:
1st look at the past 24 years. Generally population has grown slower than housing stock. Houses per person are +2.7% over 2000-22
November 23, 2023 at 10:43 PM
Immigration and housing is political 🧨
There's been some hyperbole about today's +670k immigration and housing costs. But DONT PANIC! Here's why:
1st look at the past 24 years. Generally population has grown slower than housing stock. Houses per person are +2.7% over 2000-22
There's been some hyperbole about today's +670k immigration and housing costs. But DONT PANIC! Here's why:
1st look at the past 24 years. Generally population has grown slower than housing stock. Houses per person are +2.7% over 2000-22
Reposted by Ian Mulheirn
“The real story is that the government has effectively raided the budgets of public services to fund an equally large tax cut. And since the previous departmental spending plans were widely believed to be undeliverable, there’s no question that the new ones are implausible.”
November 22, 2023 at 8:20 PM
“The real story is that the government has effectively raided the budgets of public services to fund an equally large tax cut. And since the previous departmental spending plans were widely believed to be undeliverable, there’s no question that the new ones are implausible.”
Autumn Statement headlines will be dominated by policy measures that won't be hugely consequential in the grand scheme
But behind them will lie several judgements that will materially what life in the UK will be like by the end of the decade.
3 things to look out for...🧵
But behind them will lie several judgements that will materially what life in the UK will be like by the end of the decade.
3 things to look out for...🧵
November 22, 2023 at 10:58 AM
Autumn Statement headlines will be dominated by policy measures that won't be hugely consequential in the grand scheme
But behind them will lie several judgements that will materially what life in the UK will be like by the end of the decade.
3 things to look out for...🧵
But behind them will lie several judgements that will materially what life in the UK will be like by the end of the decade.
3 things to look out for...🧵
Maude's review proposes taking departmental spending control out of the Treasury:
👍if you think HMT control cuts cross-government collaboration, over-centralises or creates excessive risk aversion (eg on preventative spend)
👎if you think it reduces control over spending and hampers coordination
👍if you think HMT control cuts cross-government collaboration, over-centralises or creates excessive risk aversion (eg on preventative spend)
👎if you think it reduces control over spending and hampers coordination
November 15, 2023 at 4:25 PM
Maude's review proposes taking departmental spending control out of the Treasury:
👍if you think HMT control cuts cross-government collaboration, over-centralises or creates excessive risk aversion (eg on preventative spend)
👎if you think it reduces control over spending and hampers coordination
👍if you think HMT control cuts cross-government collaboration, over-centralises or creates excessive risk aversion (eg on preventative spend)
👎if you think it reduces control over spending and hampers coordination
This is a fairly dire picture - wellbeing measures at pandemic lows.
There's been a 5.5% increase in number of adults reporting medium/high anxiety since before the pandemic. That's about 2.9 million more people
www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...
There's been a 5.5% increase in number of adults reporting medium/high anxiety since before the pandemic. That's about 2.9 million more people
www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...
November 7, 2023 at 10:38 AM
This is a fairly dire picture - wellbeing measures at pandemic lows.
There's been a 5.5% increase in number of adults reporting medium/high anxiety since before the pandemic. That's about 2.9 million more people
www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...
There's been a 5.5% increase in number of adults reporting medium/high anxiety since before the pandemic. That's about 2.9 million more people
www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...
Increasingly clear we've unbalanced the politics of public spending
Pre-2010, govs could make spend plans look viable by massaging economic forecasts. Now the OBR stops that, so fantasy spending plans make the numbers stack up. More politically potent
Needs an institutional fix to rebalance it
Pre-2010, govs could make spend plans look viable by massaging economic forecasts. Now the OBR stops that, so fantasy spending plans make the numbers stack up. More politically potent
Needs an institutional fix to rebalance it
November 6, 2023 at 10:08 AM
Increasingly clear we've unbalanced the politics of public spending
Pre-2010, govs could make spend plans look viable by massaging economic forecasts. Now the OBR stops that, so fantasy spending plans make the numbers stack up. More politically potent
Needs an institutional fix to rebalance it
Pre-2010, govs could make spend plans look viable by massaging economic forecasts. Now the OBR stops that, so fantasy spending plans make the numbers stack up. More politically potent
Needs an institutional fix to rebalance it
Missed this at the time, but 'ONS merch' and tote bags to get people to respond to surveys?!
I mean I'd love an ONS tote bag but suspect I'm in a minority... Surely we can do better than this to get households to respond?
I mean I'd love an ONS tote bag but suspect I'm in a minority... Surely we can do better than this to get households to respond?
November 2, 2023 at 3:46 PM
Missed this at the time, but 'ONS merch' and tote bags to get people to respond to surveys?!
I mean I'd love an ONS tote bag but suspect I'm in a minority... Surely we can do better than this to get households to respond?
I mean I'd love an ONS tote bag but suspect I'm in a minority... Surely we can do better than this to get households to respond?
Reposted by Ian Mulheirn
My column this week for the @financialtimes.com is about the different ways we have of measuring r*.
It's a bit mean of me to say that none of them are good - it's a really *really* hard thing to measure...
www.ft.com/content/3c20...
It's a bit mean of me to say that none of them are good - it's a really *really* hard thing to measure...
www.ft.com/content/3c20...
Why people can’t agree on where interest rates are going
Methods of estimating so-called R-star are in the spotlight — unfortunately, none are good
www.ft.com
November 2, 2023 at 12:22 PM
My column this week for the @financialtimes.com is about the different ways we have of measuring r*.
It's a bit mean of me to say that none of them are good - it's a really *really* hard thing to measure...
www.ft.com/content/3c20...
It's a bit mean of me to say that none of them are good - it's a really *really* hard thing to measure...
www.ft.com/content/3c20...
Sobering picture from the Bank. Look at that projection for household consumption! It makes the 2010s look like a land of milk and honey
Also concerning given our investment needs as a country: if investment is to rise household consumption will probably end up even lower. Let's hope it's wrong
Also concerning given our investment needs as a country: if investment is to rise household consumption will probably end up even lower. Let's hope it's wrong
November 2, 2023 at 1:46 PM
Sobering picture from the Bank. Look at that projection for household consumption! It makes the 2010s look like a land of milk and honey
Also concerning given our investment needs as a country: if investment is to rise household consumption will probably end up even lower. Let's hope it's wrong
Also concerning given our investment needs as a country: if investment is to rise household consumption will probably end up even lower. Let's hope it's wrong
Reposted by Ian Mulheirn
Remember, None Of This Was Dom's Fault. thecritic.co.uk/keeping-the-...
October 31, 2023 at 9:23 PM
Remember, None Of This Was Dom's Fault. thecritic.co.uk/keeping-the-...
One of my favourite charts from our RF mini report today on regional wealth:
People have a much higher proportion of pension wealth in areas where house prices are low
People have a much higher proportion of pension wealth in areas where house prices are low
October 30, 2023 at 5:16 PM
One of my favourite charts from our RF mini report today on regional wealth:
People have a much higher proportion of pension wealth in areas where house prices are low
People have a much higher proportion of pension wealth in areas where house prices are low